REAcct: a scenario analysis tool for rapidly estimating economic impacts of major natural and man-made hazards

The REAcct (for Regional Economic Accounting) tool was developed for estimating order-of-magnitude economic impacts within DHS scenario analysis. REAcct uses input–output modeling, geo-spatial data computational tools, and publically available economic data and allows for detailed specification of sectors, regions, and disruption intervals. Direct impacts are estimated as changes in output and employment; total (direct plus indirect) impacts are calculated using regional total and final demand multipliers. In total, the REAcct framework and software allow for scenario analysts to understand and assess the interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, economic industries, and consumers that are essential to broader homeland security scenario analysis.     

NOAA satellite data: a useful tool for macro inventory

This article discusses some of the demonstrated and potential uses of data from satellites with large fields of view and high frequency of coverage, such as NOAA AVHRR data and Nimbus-7 CZCS data. The use of such data is discussed for three types of applications: (a) stratification, (b) change detection, and (c) area estimation. It is concluded that such data have considerable promise as an aid to a variety of large-area inventory and monitoring tasks.     

Population viability analysis as a tool in wildlife conservation policy: With reference to Australia

Wildlife conservation policy for endangered species restoration follows a six-phase process. Population viability analysis (PVA) can play a major contributing role in four of these. PVA, as discussed here, is a technique where extinction vulnerabilities of small populations are estimated using computer simulation modeling. The benefits and limitations of using PVA in wildlife decision and policy processes are reviewed based on our direct experience. PVA permits decision makers to set time frames for management, estimate the required magnitude of restoration efforts, identify quantitative targets for species recovery, and select, implement, monitor, and evaluate management strategies. PVA is of greatest value for rare species policy and management. However, a limitation of PVA simulation models is that they are constrained by the amount of biological data available, and such data are difficult to obtain from small populations that are at immediate risk of extinction. These problems may be overcome with improved models and more data. Our experience shows benefits of PVA far outweigh its limitations, and applications of the approach are most useful when integrated with decision analysis and completed within an adaptive management philosophy. PVAs have been carried out for 14 Victorian species and less used elsewhere in Australia. Management and recovery plans are developed from these PVAs. We recommend that PVA be used to guide research programs, develop conservation strategies, and inform decision and policy making for both endangered and nonendangered species because it can significantly improve many aspects of natural resource policy and management.     

Geographic information systems: a tool for strategic ground water quality management

Geographically‐related information is needed for several elements of an integrated ground water quality management programme, including ground water monitoring planning, prioritization of pollution sources, usage of permits and inspections for source control, and planning and completion of remedial actions. Geographic Information Systems (GISs) can be used to support these elements along with delineating wellhead protection areas (WHPAs), prioritizing existing contaminant sources and evaluating proposed changes in land usage in such areas. Eight case studies of the use of GISs in wellhead protection programmes are summarized, including examples from Rhode Island, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Massachusetts and Texas. Six additional examples are mentioned relative to the use of GISs for evaluating ground water pollution potential, facilitating data analysis for environmental restoration of a large area with numerous waste sites, evaluating trends in ground water nitrate contamination, establishing a national database for ground water vulnerability to agricultural chemicals, simulating water table altitudes from stream and drainage basin locations, and selecting radioactive waste dump sites. The applicability of GISs and their associated advantages in wellhead protection and other ground water management studies are demonstrated via the case studies. The GIS technology provides a unique opportunity for analysing and visualizing spatial data. Contaminant and source prioritization within WHPAs is needed for both extant conditions and in the evaluation of proposed land use changes. The coupling of a GIS with contaminant/source prioritization would provide a strategic tool which could be used to plan targeted ground water monitoring programmes, to identify appropriate management or mitigation measures, minimize introduction of contaminants from existing sources into the subsurface environment, and to evaluate the potential of proposed land use activities for causing ground water contamination. GISs can be useful in providing current information for policy makers, planners and managers engaged in ground water quality decision making.     

Multiple-resource modeling as a tool for conservation: Its applicability in Mexico

The current Mexican environmental law provides the legal basis for comprehensive land-use planning. Under the law, development of natural ecosystems must combine goals, policies, and practices towards the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of biological diversity. Thus, ecosystem manipulation must be able to counter fragmentation of natural ecosystems and isolation of natural reserves, while providing for human needs. Assessment of the potential of natural ecosystems and management impacts are required. Multiple-resource simulation is an assessment and land-use planning tool that permits managers and decision makers to comply with the law, providing a flexible, user-oriented system that can meet the needs of managers, conservationists, and researchers. A multiple-resource model and an example of how it can be applied to meet planning needs is presented for discussion.     

Regional climatic mapping as a tool for sustainable development

In the framework of an EU project on sustainable village development in China (SUCCESS), the natural climate resource was evaluated. Climate is seen as a potential for sustainability, an improvement of social life, agricultural production and reduction of air pollution problems. In this respect, thermal comfort conditions, microclimates and ventilation patterns were studied in seven Chinese villages and climate maps were drawn. Following planning recommendations, they can be transferred to decision-makers for their village development. In this framework, the paper presents a general methodology of urban climate mapping, carried out in China, applicable to all countries and climates.     

Developing a decision support tool for life-cycle cost assessments

Recent years have seen advancements in the development and use of life-cycle assessment (LCA) analytic techniques. Although these techniques have highlighted the power of LCA to identify the environmental consequences of a product system through its entire life cycle, they have also highlighted a major shortcoming of LCA—the lack of cost information. Because companies make daily decisions that involve trade-offs between economics and the environment, including cost information in LCA is critical for advancing its use as an overall environmental decision-making tool. This article outlines the current state of LCA methodology development, defines key life-cycle cost assessment terms and concepts, and evaluates existing cost assessment techniques with the objective of building an integrated life-cycle cost assessment tool.     

Planning and Creating Eco-cities: indicators as a tool for shaping development and measuring progress

Eco-cities strive to become more liveable, enjoyable, and healthy. Indicators can be an effective mechanism for understanding people's values, needs, concerns, and expectations; guiding development decisions; evaluating progress and making revisions; and gaining support for desired actions. This Viewpoint describes how sustainability indicators can be developed to measure a community's environment, economy, quality of life, and governance. Five helpful hints are offered to guide this process.     

Planning and Creating Eco-cities: Indicators as a tool for shaping development and measuring progress

Eco-cities strive to become more liveable, enjoyable, and healthy. Indicators can be an effective mechanism for understanding people's values, needs, concerns, and expectations; guiding development decisions; evaluating progress and making revisions; and gaining support for desired actions. This Viewpoint describes how sustainability indicators can be developed to measure a community's environment, economy, quality of life, and governance. Five helpful hints are offered to guide this process.     

The Area Production Model: a tool and concept for sustainable land-use and forest-resource management

In developing countries, planning in the forestry sector has been seen as an appropriate instrument to prepare and implement government policies and programs. Despite its potential and recent advancements in, for example, remote sensing and infrastructure, tropical forest land-use planning is often formal and non-integrated with agriculture. It rarely involves all legitimate stakeholders and neglects taking into account actual land-use. The socio-economic and environmental consequences of these shortcomings emphasise the need for alternative ways of approaching planning. This article summarises the idea, structure and current status of the Area Production Model (APM), originally developed in the 1980s, which is now gaining interest as a land-use planning tool in Africa and Asia. It describes the development over time of production and consumption in agriculture and forestry within a defined geographical area operating under different assumptions on management, land use and socio-economic and macro-economic changes. From a narrow perspective, the APM is a fairly simple computerised tool for generating scenarios. In a broad sense, it is a concept comprising the whole planning process including organisation, inventory, data analysis, consensus building and strategy. A case-study in Laos, based on verified data for a historical period of 45 years, and a review of different APM applications in the world over the last 15 years are presented as a base for conclusions about its potential and shortcomings. In some cases where the APM concept was used in training courses and planning exercises involving stakeholders, it generated a strong interest in collecting and analysing relevant information. It provides the means of addressing a number of shortcomings in current planning.     

Formula allocation as a policy tool: politics and measurement

Formula allocation is a major tool for the distribution of public funds in the United States of America. This paper explores several examples of formulae used in U.S. domestic programmes, looking at their construction, meaning and consequences. The authors argue that the design of formulae is both a political and technical task. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations to improve formulae as tools of distributional policy.     

Crushed concrete as a phosphate binding material: a potential new management tool

To avoid eutrophication of receiving waters, effective methods to remove P in urban and agricultural runoff are needed. Crushed concrete may be an effective filter material to remove dissolved and particulate P. Five types of crushed concrete were tested in the laboratory to evaluate the retention capacity of dissolved P. All types removed P very effectively (5.1-19.6 g P kg(-1) concrete), while the possible release of bound P varied between 0.4 and 4.6%. The retention rate was positively related to a decreasing concrete grain size due to an increasing surface area for binding. The P retention was also related to a marked increase in pH (up to pH 12), and the highest retention was observed when pH was high. Under these circumstances, column experiments showed outlet P concentrations <0.0075 mg P L(-1). Furthermore, experiments revealed that release of heavy metals is of no importance for the treated water. We demonstrate that crushed concrete can be an effective tool to remove P in urban and agricultural runoff as filter material in sedimentation/infiltration ponds provided that pH in the treated water is neutralized or the water is diluted before outlet to avoid undesired effects caused by the high pH.     

Agricultural nitrogen model: A tool for regional environmental management

A detailed nitrogen budget was devised for agricultural activities in the Florida peninsula, based on routine data published by state agricultural agencies. The model demonstrates that important unmonitored fluxes of nitrogen can often be calculated by mass balance on individual model compartments, and that the reasonability of poorly quantified fluxes can be assessed. The results of such models can be very useful in designing and assessing the results of field experiments and in prioritizing environmental monitoring programs.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

Kodak's safety performance indexing—a tool for environmental improvement

Safety performance has a direct effect on employees' productivity and quality of work life, and on company profits and image in the community. Enormous human and financial losses can result from poor safety performance, and all such losses are preventable. To prevent these potential losses, safety performance must be continually improved across all levels of the organization. Effective safety programs are the key to improved safety performance. But how do we know when a safety program is effective? How can we measure safety performance and set goals for improvements? How can we track progress toward these goals? This article demonstrates how a powerful performance management tool —performance indexing— can be used to help improve safety performance throughout your company. This tool can also be used to measure, track, and improve environmental and occupational health performance.     

Brownfields as a tool for the rejuvenation of land and community

Brownfields have been a powerful force attempting to advance both sustainability and economic development. The author, principally using U.S. examples, advances the belief that the true benefits potentially offered by Brownfields can only be fully realized by using tools such as found in the application of Community Benefit Agreements. In a similar way use of Community-Based Participatory Research frameworks holds out similar promise. The proof of this promise will only be found in the implementation of these models.     

Parkmanagement as a tool for careful industrial land‐use planning

During the second half of the 1990s the combination of ecological and economic targets in industrial land‐use planning became an official part of spatial‐economic policy in the Netherlands. A growing number of business locations are now being developed or re‐developed as ‘sustainable business sites’. At the same time, ‘parkmanagement’ came into existence as a new tool for development and control of business sites for industry and services. Parkmanagement is now regarded as one of the obvious instruments to realize sustainable (or ‘careful’) land use on business parks. However, there is now a question about whether it is wrong for local governments (which in the Dutch case are responsible for most land development schemes) to have so much participation in parkmanagement initiatives. There is a threat that local governments are welcoming parkmanagement as a fashionable way to impose new regulations on business establishments, and ignore the evidence from practice. Such evidence shows that parkmanagement is most successful when organized with the involvement of private enterprises. This would also be more in line with the modern interaction‐oriented planning theory (consensus planning). The paper describes the principal dilemmas facing local governments in business site development, the theoretical options for influencing the development process of the sites, and the set of actions that could be part of a parkmanagement strategy. These can be arranged on a ‘ladder’ or range of activities, from rather simple facilities serving individual companies' needs, such as maintenance and security, to more complex co‐operation projects in combined transport or energy supply, and ultimately lead to schemes for connecting material flows of production processes. The successive stages of the ladder of business site facilities can be combined with different forms and stages of process organization.     

Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues

Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. GHG emissions from deforestation in the tropics were in the range of 1 to 2 Pg C yr(-1) for the 1990s, which is equivalent to as much as 25% of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. While there is growing interest in providing incentives to avoid deforestation and consequently reduce net carbon emissions, there is limited information available on the potential costs of these activities. This paper uses a global forestry and land use model to analyze the potential marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding deforestation in tropical countries. Our estimates suggest that about 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) of emissions reductions could be obtained over the next 30 to 50 yr for $5 per Mg C, and about 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) could be obtained over the same time frame for $100 per Mg C. In addition, the effects of carbon incentives on land use could be substantial. Relative to projected baseline conditions, we find that there would be around 3 million additional hectares (ha) of forestland in 2055 at $5 per Mg C and 422 million ha at $100 per Mg C. Estimates of reductions in area deforested, GHG mitigation potential, and annual land rental payments required are presented, all of which vary by region, carbon price paid, and time frame of mitigation.     

Predicting flooding probability for beach/dune systems

The determination of the risk from flooding that shorefront communities face is an important component of coastal management that has not been resolved successfully. Wave runup offers one way of quantifying the risk of coastal flooding that results from overtopping by storm waves. The calculation of runup probabilities uses wave frequency analysis and an average beach/dune profile for a given shoreline segment. The amount of risk is determined by using a runup probability curve for specific shoreline locations within the segment. The procedure is demonstrated using the New Jersey shoreline as an example, and results indicate a higher degree of risk in the southern part of the state. Although the procedure is attractive, there is a need for additional field research to test: (1) the accuracy of the calculation procedure; (2) the applicability of a design profile for a shoreline segment; and (3) whether a non-storm beach/dune profile may be used in the calculation. In terms of the broader subject of coastal hazards, these runup calculations need to be integrated with research on beach erosion to provide a comprehensive assessment of the risk at specific locations.