黄河三角洲潮间带软体动物多样性与分布格局

为了解黄河三角洲潮间带软体动物现状,于2018年秋季和2019年春季分别对建国后4个主要的黄河入海流路潮间带进行了采样调查。此次调查共采集到软件动物2纲11目24科45种,主要优势种有短滨螺(Littorina brevicula)、托氏■螺(Umbonium costatum)、古氏滩栖螺(Batillaria cumingi)和秀丽织纹螺(Nassarius concinnus)等,年平均密度和平均生物量分别为411.56个·m~(-2)和222.25 g·m~(-2);各地点的丰富度指数(d)变化范围为0.329～1.648,均匀度指数(J)的变化范围为0.302～0.678,多样性指数(H′)的变化范围为0.298～1.384,仅平均生物量的地点和季节存在显著交互作用(P0.05);年平均密度、平均生物量、丰富度指数和多样性指数在不同地点存在极显著差异(P0.01),季节差异不显著(P0.05)。不同黄河入海流路对软体动物的空间分布格局影响显著,这与黄河调水调沙及生态调水工程有一定关系。作为迁徙水鸟的主要食物类群,软体动物对水鸟保护起着至关重要的作用,应加强对其的监测与保护。     

中国居民多溴联苯醚的膳食暴露水平和风险评估

本研究于2009年至2013年在全国20个省份按照中国总膳食研究方法采集食物样品160份,用高分辨气相色谱-高分辨质谱(HRGC-HRMS)结合同位素稀释技术测定8类食物中7种多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)组分含量,通过膳食消费量计算各省普通居民的PBDEs膳食摄入量和3种组分的暴露边界值(MOEs).7种PBDEs在所有食物类别中都有检出.含量平均值最高的食物为蛋类(316 pg·g~(-1)fw(fresh weight))、水产(169 pg·g~(-1)fw)和肉类(97.1 pg·g~(-1)fw).摄入量最高的地区为上海(1.88 ng·kg~(-1)bw·d~(-1))、福建(1.63 ng·kg~(-1)bw·d~(-1))和辽宁(1.55 ng·kg~(-1)bw·d~(-1)).与2007年比,膳食中PBDEs含量和摄入量总体呈下降趋势,不会造成健康风险;但个别食物以及上海、福建、辽宁趋于严重的污染状况值得重点关注和持续监测.     

广西大明山自然保护区哺乳动物资源调查研究

2000年9月11日至26日,在广西省大明山自然保护区采集哺乳动物81只(种),共计19种,隶属5目,11科.结合以往的调查资料,已知大明山自然保护区有哺乳动物动物60种,隶属8目,22科,47属.保护区内的哺乳动物多样性系数(H”)为2.5555,均匀度指数(J)为O.8679,动物的密度为231.23只/km2.     

典型汞污染地区食物汞含量及人体汞暴露健康风险

系统采集典型汞污染地区(铅锌冶炼、金矿冶炼和燃煤电厂)食物样品(大米、蔬菜和鱼肉) 409个,测定其总汞含量以评估当地居民食物摄入汞暴露的健康风险。结果显示:铅锌冶炼地区大米总汞含量的几何均值为5.99μg·kg~(-1)(3.02～30.7μg·kg~(-1)),仅有1个样品总汞含量超过我国大米汞限量标准(20μg·kg~(-1)),蔬菜和鱼肉总汞含量分别为0.646～5.44μg·kg~(-1)和1.80～26.4μg·kg~(-1),均未超过我国食品汞限量标准;金矿冶炼地区大米总汞含量的几何均值为4.46μg·kg~(-1)(3.13～8.67μg·kg~(-1)),蔬菜和鱼肉总汞含量分别为0.760～7.83μg·kg~(-1)和1.59～21.9μg·kg~(-1),所有食物均未超过我国食品汞限量标准;燃煤电厂地区大米总汞含量的几何均值为3.63μg·kg~(-1)(1.05～11.4μg·kg~(-1)),蔬菜和鱼肉总汞含量分别为1.12～3.78μg·kg~(-1)和2.24～12.3μg·kg~(-1),所有食物均未超过我国食品汞限量标准。铅锌冶炼、金矿冶炼和燃煤电厂3个地区居民通过食用食物(大米、鱼肉和蔬菜途径)总汞摄入量的均值分别为0.068、0.038和0.031μg·d~(-1)·kg~(-1),均未超出联合国粮农组织和世界卫生组织食品添加剂联合专家委员会(JECFA)推荐的人体安全总汞摄入量0.71μg·d~(-1)·kg~(-1);表明3个研究地区居民汞暴露的风险较低。大米汞摄入量占3个地区居民食物总汞摄入量的比例分别为77.2%、70.8%和71.4%,食用大米是当地居民汞暴露的主要途径。     

耕地土壤环境质量监测网最优网格尺度识别研究——以珠三角耕地土壤镉为例

最优采样密度的确定是土壤环境调查、监测及监测网建设过程中的热点和难点科学问题,但当前对土壤环境监测最优网格尺度识别的研究较少。文章在对珠江三角洲地区耕地土壤按照2 km×2 km的网格加密调查的基础上,采用经典统计方法、地统计法和空间插值等方法开展土壤镉最优监测网格尺度研究。结果表明:(1)2 km×2 km、4 km×4 km、8 km×8 km和16 km×16 km 4种网格尺度下,采样点间距离均小于空间相关距离,具有中等的空间自相关性;8 km×8 km网格的变程及拟合度最大,说明利用地统计学方法进行珠三角耕地土壤镉含量变量的空间分析,8 km×8 km网格的空间表达能力最强;(2)不论从交叉验证模型,还是独立验证模型以及空间分布模式均可发现,2 km×2 km、4 km×4 km和8 km×8 km等3种采样尺度均可较可靠地反映珠三角区域耕地土壤镉含量的空间变异,而16 km×16 km的采样尺度则无法保证可靠性;(3)在置信水平为95%,相对误差为15%的条件下,采用Cochran公式获取的最佳采样数量为169个,而2 km×2 km、4 km×4 km和8 km×8km满足此条件的点位数均大于169个,此时误差小于《土壤环境监测技术规范》(HJ/T 166─2004)中实验室允许的最大误差25%。总之,在珠江三角洲区域尺度上,以土壤镉作为评价目标的土壤采样中,8 km×8 km是比较适宜的采样尺度。     

新疆森林植被碳储量预测研究

森林在固碳与应对气候变化方面起着重要作用。在区域空间尺度上,如何准确预测森林碳储量仍是热点与难点。以新疆主要森林类型常绿针叶林、落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林和针阔混交林为研究对象,综合激光雷达树高数据与森林调查数据,采用幂函数模型估算新疆森林植被生物量并转换为碳密度,基于森林植被生物量利用Logistic模型与Gompertz模型估算新疆森林年龄获得新疆森林年龄空间分布图。在构建适合新疆主要森林类型的年龄与碳密度模型的基础上,预测2030年和2060年新疆森林植被碳储量与碳汇速率。结果表明,(1)构建的适合新疆主要森林类型生物量和森林年龄的估算模型以及森林年龄与碳密度的生长模型拟合度和显著性水平都较高,通过验证确定了对应的最优模型及参数。其中新疆森林生长模型表现出随林龄增加碳密度逐渐增加,到达成熟林后碳密度逐渐趋于稳定的特征。(2)2019年新疆森林年龄与碳密度空间分布大致呈现西高东低,北高南低的格局,与不同森林类型的环境适应能力及生长速率有关。2019年新疆森林的平均生物量、平均碳密度和年龄分别为147.84 Mg·hm^-2、73.92 Mg·hm^-2     

常熟市食物氮足迹的量化及其影响因素研究

随着人口增长、经济发展和居民生活水平的逐渐提高,食物消费结构发生转变,食物源氮消费产生的环境问题不容忽视。以长江三角洲典型县级市常熟市为例,运用实地调研和N-calculator模型相结合的方法计算2000—2016年食物氮足迹及其影响因素。结果表明,2010—2016年常熟市县城居民人均氮足迹为14.68～20.00 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1),均值为(17.51±1.53) kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1);常熟市农村居民人均食物氮足迹为17.58～24.87 kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1),均值为(20.49±2.55) kg·人~(-1)·a~(-1)。县城居民食物氮足迹以动物源食物氮足迹为主(≥66.42%);农村居民食物氮足迹由2000年以植物源为主(51.90%)转变为2016年以动物源为主(62.40%)。2016年常熟市食物消费氮代价为7.64 kg·kg~(-1),比2000年下降24.65%,低于国家食物消费氮代价(9.90 kg·kg~(-1)),高于北京市水平(2.50 kg·kg~(-1))。食物消费结构、人均GDP、人均可支配收入和城镇化率是影响食物氮足迹的主要因素。该研究可为城市的可持续发展和生态环境改善提供依据。     

典型废物回收园区土壤中邻苯二甲酸酯分布与风险评价

采集天津典型废物回收园区(分为室外回收区和规范化厂区两部分)和周边农田土壤样品36个,分析了土壤中美国环保部优先监测的邻苯二甲酸酯(phthalic acid ester,PAEs)的含量,并进一步研究了污染物的分布特征、环境来源和生态风险.结果表明,7种PAEs在不同土壤中均有不同程度检出.规范化厂区和农田土壤中∑PAEs含量分别为0.889—2.22、0.385—2.54 mg·kg~(-1),显著低于室外回收区∑PAEs含量(1.81—15.9 mg·kg~(-1)).邻苯二甲酸二异(2-乙基)己脂(DEHP)是最主要的PAEs污染物,平均贡献率70%.主成分分析结果表明,研究区域土壤中PAEs主要来源于废料回收、再利用过程中的排放.风险评价结果表明,部分土壤DEHP暴露对成人和儿童的致癌风险超出了可接受水平.废物回收园区,特别是室外操作模式带来的PAEs的暴露风险应引起重视.     

不同藻密度下诺氟沙星对萼花臂尾轮虫生命表统计学参数的影响

诺氟沙星是一种被广泛使用的抗生素,但其对轮虫的毒性作用尚不清楚。为调查诺氟沙星对轮虫的毒性及其与藻密度之间的关系,以及各试验终点对诺氟沙星污染的相对敏感性,本文以萼花臂尾轮虫为受试生物,研究了不同斜生栅藻密度(1.0×10~6、2.0×10~6和4.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1))下不同浓度(0、5、20、35、50、65和80 mg·L~(-1))的诺氟沙星对其生命表统计学参数的影响。结果显示,与3个藻密度下的对照组相比,暴露于5～80 mg·L~(-1)诺氟沙星溶液中的轮虫生命期望和世代时间显著延长,净生殖率和种群内禀增长率显著提高。5 mg·L~(-1)的诺氟沙星使生命期望和世代时间的延长幅度随着藻密度的升高而增大,但6个处理组的平均提高幅度却随着藻密度的升高而减小; 5 mg·L~(-1)的诺氟沙星对净生殖率和种群内禀增长率的提高幅度随着藻密度的升高而增大,但6个处理组的平均提高幅度却在2.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)的藻密度下最小,4.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)的藻密度下最大。1.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)的藻密度下,诺氟沙星浓度对轮虫后代混交率无显著性影响(P0.05); 2.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)的藻密度下,暴露于5～35和80 mg·L~(-1)诺氟沙星溶液中的轮虫后代混交率显著降低; 4.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)的藻密度下,暴露于5、35和80 mg·L~(-1)诺氟沙星溶液中的轮虫后代混交率显著降低。当藻密度为1.0×10~6和2.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)时,诺氟沙星浓度与轮虫的生命期望、世代时间、净生殖率和种群内禀增长率之间具有显著的剂量-效应关系;当藻密度为4.0×10~6cells·m L~(-1)时,诺氟沙星浓度与轮虫的净生殖率和种群内禀增长率之间具有显著的剂量-效应关系。本研究表明,亚致死浓度的诺氟沙星促进轮虫的存活、发育、孤雌生殖和种群增长,促进作用的幅度受藻密度的显著影响。     

基于红外相机技术的川金丝猴地面活动监测

川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)属猴科(Cercopithecidae)疣猴亚科(Colobinae),但与疣猴亚科大多数物种的树栖习性不同,川金丝猴在生活史过程中展现出一定的地栖性。为了解该物种下地活动的节律、行为分布和性别-年龄组成,采用红外相机技术对四川省白水河国家级自然保护区内野生川金丝猴种群的地面活动进行了长期监测。2013—2018年共建立了70个红外相机监测位点,获得86次川金丝猴地面活动的独立捕捉,涉及243只个体。分析结果显示:(1)川金丝猴会在白昼的任何时间下地活动,11:00和19:00为一天中2个下地活动的高峰时段,而17:00为低谷期;(2)夏季川金丝猴下地活动较频繁,冬季则极少;(3)60%以上的个体都在地面进行移动行为,约30%的个体在休息,取食行为仅观察到2例;(4)地面活动个体的成年猴雌雄性比为1.21∶1,成年猴与未成年猴比为4.09∶1。本研究结果表明,移动是猴群地面活动的主要行为内容,并且下地倾向在性别和年龄间存在差异,支持了川金丝猴下地的主要目的是为了穿越林冠不连续区域的假说。     

Modeling outcomes of approaches to sustained human and snow leopard coexistence

The snow leopard (Uncia uncia) is in danger of extinction. Killing to protect livestock is among the primary causes of its decline. Efforts to mitigate this threat have focused on balancing the need to conserve the snow leopard with the needs of local people in snow leopard habitat, many of whom rely on raising livestock for their livelihoods. Conservation of the snow leopard has the characteristics of a public good, and outside funding is required to support conservation efforts. There are 5 commonly discussed approaches to resolving this issue: (1) direct payments for conservation, (2) investments in protection from predation, (3) damage compensation payments, (4) investments in better livestock husbandry, and (5) leases of pastureland for wild prey. After a review of these 5 conservation strategies, an economic–ecologic model, which includes the interactions between the snow leopard, its wild prey, and livestock, is used to evaluate the 2 most promising conservation strategies. The model reveals that investments in protection from predation and leases of pastureland for wild prey are effective but only in delaying the eventual extinction of the snow leopard. To preserve the snow leopard, these approaches must be applied more aggressively and new ones explored.     

Role of Tibetan Buddhist Monasteries in Snow Leopard Conservation

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) inhabits the rugged mountains in 12 countries of Central Asia, including the Tibetan Plateau. Due to poaching, decreased abundance of prey, and habitat degradation, it was listed as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 1972. Current conservation strategies, including nature reserves and incentive programs, have limited capacities to protect snow leopards. We investigated the role of Tibetan Buddhist monasteries in snow leopard conservation in the Sanjiangyuan region in China's Qinghai Province on the Tibetan Plateau. From 2009 to 2011, we systematically surveyed snow leopards in the Sanjiangyuan region. We used the MaxEnt model to determine the relation of their presence to environmental variables (e.g., elevation, ruggedness) and to predict snow leopard distribution. Model results showed 89,602 km² of snow leopard habitat in the Sanjiangyuan region, of which 7674 km² lay within Sanjiangyuan Nature Reserve's core zones. We analyzed the spatial relation between snow leopard habitat and Buddhist monasteries and found that 46% of monasteries were located in snow leopard habitat and 90% were within 5 km of snow leopard habitat. The 336 monasteries in the Sanjiangyuan region could protect more snow leopard habitat (8342 km²) through social norms and active patrols than the nature reserve's core zones. We conducted 144 household interviews to identify local herders’ attitudes and behavior toward snow leopards and other wildlife. Most local herders claimed that they did not kill wildlife, and 42% said they did not kill wildlife because it was a sin in Buddhism. Our results indicate monasteries play an important role in snow leopard conservation. Monastery‐based snow leopard conservation could be extended to other Tibetan Buddhist regions that in total would encompass about 80% of the global range of snow leopards. Papel de los Monasterios Budistas Tibetanos en la Conservación del Leopardo de las Nieves     

The Role of Incentive Programs in Conserving the Snow Leopard

Abstract:   Pastoralists and their livestock share much of the habitat of the snow leopard ( Uncia uncia ) across south and central Asia. The levels of livestock predation by the snow leopard and other carnivores are high, and retaliatory killing by the herders is a direct threat to carnivore populations. Depletion of wild prey by poaching and competition from livestock also poses an indirect threat to the region's carnivores. Conservationists working in these underdeveloped areas that face serious economic damage from livestock losses have turned to incentive programs to motivate local communities to protect carnivores. We describe a pilot incentive program in India that aims to offset losses due to livestock predation and to enhance wild prey density by creating livestock-free areas on common land. We also describe how income generation from handicrafts in Mongolia is helping curtail poaching and retaliatory killing of snow leopards. However, initiatives to offset the costs of living with carnivores and to make conservation beneficial to affected people have thus far been small, isolated, and heavily subsidized. Making these initiatives more comprehensive, expanding their coverage, and internalizing their costs are future challenges for the conservation of large carnivores such as the snow leopard.     

Regional Decline of an Iconic Amphibian Associated with Elevation,Land‐Use Change,and Invasive Species

Abstract: Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)—historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America—have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information‐theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2–28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non‐native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low‐elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best‐supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents.     

Spawning patterns in the leopard grouper, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mycteroperca rosacea</Emphasis>, in comparison with other aggregating groupers

We documented the spawning patterns of the leopard grouper, Mycteroperca rosacea, from April to June 2005 in the central Gulf of California, Mexico to draw comparisons with other aggregate-spawning groupers and provide information useful for management of their fishery. Adults formed spawning aggregations of 150 to >700 individuals at specific sites, and spawning occurred daily at these sites from late April through early June. Courtship occurred throughout the day, but spawning was restricted to the evening hours. Adults spawned in groups of 6–40 fish, and pair-spawning was not observed. The group-spawning behavior of adults and the gonosomatic indices of mature males (maximum = 7.2%) suggest that sperm competition was present. The site-specificity of leopard grouper spawning aggregations and diel spawning period were typical of most aggregating groupers, and the size and structure of these aggregations was similar to other species in the genus Mycteroperca. Leopard grouper behavior patterns were unusual in that spawning aggregations persisted for extended periods, spawning was not synchronized with the lunar cycle, and adults aggregated during non-spawning periods. The extensive duration and site-specificity of spawning aggregations and the propensity of M. rosacea to form aggregations year-round increases the vulnerability of the species to overfishing. Policies that limit harvest from these aggregations are needed to improve the management of leopard grouper fisheries in the Gulf of California.     

Ontogenetic switch between alternative antipredatory strategies in the leopard gecko (Eublepharis macularius): defensive threat versus escape

Ontogenetic changes in antipredator behavior optimize survival of growing animals. Leopard geckos (Eublepharis macularius) respond to a simulated predator either by postural and vocal threats, sometimes followed by biting, or alternatively by a rapid escape. The former “confrontational” and the latter “avoidance” behavior rarely occurs in a sequence; in fact, they represent mutually exclusive defensive strategies. We examined 552 individuals of a leopard gecko (E. macularius) of various ages, from hatching up to adulthood (31 months). Each experimental animal was exposed to a sequence of five “water-spraying” and ten “stick” (stick poking on base of the tail) stimuli, and the emitted behavior was recorded. We analyzed the effects of age, body size, body condition, adult–juvenile coloration, and sex on observed behavioral traits. The results showed that in the case of water-spraying stimulus, the usage of deterrent vocalization or escape tactic was affected by age and condition. In addition to that, using deterrent vocalization was influenced by the coloration of the animal. Stick stimulus evokes antipredator strategies that correspond with age and coloration (deterrent vocalization) and also with standardized body size (escape). Thus, leopard geckos exhibit clear ontogenetic change of defensive strategies, from threat–vocalization–bite strategy prevailing in juveniles to an escape strategy typical for adults. This behavioral change is accompanied by the ontogenetic switch of coloration from presumably warning contrasting light–dark banded pattern of juveniles to a cryptic spotted coloration of the adults.     

Costs and Benefits of the Presence of Leopards to the Sport‐Hunting Industry and Local Communities in Niassa National Reserve,Mozambique

Sport hunting is often proposed as a tool to support the conservation of large carnivores. However, it is challenging to provide tangible economic benefits from this activity as an incentive for local people to conserve carnivores. We assessed economic gains from sport hunting and poaching of leopards (Panthera pardus), costs of leopard depredation of livestock, and attitudes of people toward leopards in Niassa National Reserve, Mozambique. We sent questionnaires to hunting concessionaires (n = 8) to investigate the economic value of and the relative importance of leopards relative to other key trophy‐hunted species. We asked villagers (n = 158) the number of and prices for leopards poached in the reserve and the number of goats depredated by leopard. Leopards were the mainstay of the hunting industry; a single animal was worth approximately U.S.$24,000. Most safari revenues are retained at national and international levels, but poached leopard are illegally traded locally for small amounts ($83). Leopards depredated 11 goats over 2 years in 2 of 4 surveyed villages resulting in losses of $440 to 6 households. People in these households had negative attitudes toward leopards. Although leopard sport hunting generates larger gross revenues than poaching, illegal hunting provides higher economic benefits for households involved in the activity. Sport‐hunting revenues did not compensate for the economic losses of livestock at the household level. On the basis of our results, we propose that poaching be reduced by increasing the costs of apprehension and that the economic benefits from leopard sport hunting be used to improve community livelihoods and provide incentives not to poach. Costos y Beneficios de la Presencia de Leopardos para la Industria de la Caza Deportiva y las Comunidades Locales en Niassa, Reserva Nacional, Mozambique     

Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information

There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or require some parameter or model tuning.     

Predictability of reef fish recruitment in a highly variable nursery habitat

There has been a lengthy debate on whether the abundance of adult reef fishes depends on prerecruitment or postrecruitment processes; however, we still do not have the ability to predict the magnitude of local fish recruitment. Here we show that the success of the leopard grouper (Mycteroperca rosacea) recruitment in the Gulf of California, Mexico, is determined by the availability of nursery habitat, which in turn is strongly correlated to climate conditions. Observational and experimental studies showed that leopard grouper larvae recruit preferentially on shallow rocky bottoms with brown algal (Sargassum spp.) beds, and that abundance of recruits is determined by the availability of Sargassum. The biomass of Sargassum decreases linearly with an increase in the Multivariate El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index (MEI; an index positively correlated with water temperature and negatively correlated with nutrient availability). We analyzed the relationship between the interannual variation of MEI and the recruitment of the leopard grouper using field estimates of abundance of juvenile groupers. Our results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between recruitment and the oceanographic climate, in that the density of recruits decreases exponentially with increasing MEI. The predictability of leopard grouper recruitment has important implications for fisheries management, since it could allow adaptive management without expensive stock assessment programs.     

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90–125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12–16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the “escapement” due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.