基于MAXENT模型的丹顶鹤越冬生境变化分析:以盐城保护区为例

盐城保护区是全球野生丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)迁徙种群主要的越冬栖息地之一。近年来,丹顶鹤越冬生境变化显著。应用MAXENT模型,结合丹顶鹤野外调查数据和主要环境特征变量,对2000—2013年盐城保护区丹顶鹤越冬生境变化和主要原因进行分析。模型分析结果表明,到道路距离、到养殖塘距离和到米草滩距离,以及到芦苇滩距离和到碱蓬滩距离分别是2000和2013年影响丹顶鹤分布的主要环境因子。2000—2013年期间,盐城保护区内丹顶鹤适宜生境面积持续减少,由94 571 hm2减少为22 365 hm2;适宜生境破碎化程度不断加剧,分布格局由连续分布变为集中分布在核心区周围区域。丹顶鹤适宜生境丧失与保护区内碱蓬滩、泥滩、盐田面积大幅减少,养殖塘面积大幅增加有关。建议保护区在丹顶鹤越冬生境保护中做好以下工作:(1)加强核心区湿地生境保护和恢复;(2)加强实验区和缓冲区人工湿地管护;(3)加强对保护区内人为干扰活动的监督和管理。     

江苏盐城自然保护区湿地景观格局空间优化模拟

江苏盐城自然保护区是中国最大的海岸带保护区,主要保护对象为丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)等珍稀鸟类和滩涂湿地生态系统。如何协调生物多样性保护与资源利用的矛盾,保护丹顶鹤赖以生存的湿地生境,是保护区管理者急需解决的问题。设计了3种考虑保护区协调丹顶鹤生境保护和经济发展的情景模式,并采用土地利用空间优化(LUPO)模型,模拟实现了各情景模式下的保护区湿地景观格局空间优化配置。模拟结果表明:情景A将保护区大面积的光滩和米草滩转换为碱蓬滩,实现了使丹顶鹤适宜生境面积增加80%以上的生态目标,但区域年经济效益显著下降。情景B将大面积的光滩、农田和米草滩转换为养殖塘,实现了使区域年经济效益增长40%以上的经济目标,但付出了丹顶鹤适宜生境面积减少的代价。情景C通过将米草滩和芦苇滩转换为碱蓬滩,将农田和光滩等转换为养殖塘,既实现了使丹顶鹤适宜生境面积增加40%以上,又使区域年经济效益增长20%以上的情景目标,是一种双赢的情景方案。     

江苏省盐城自然保护区周围地区乡镇工业污染状况及发展方向

在盐城自然保护区周围建立一个环境良好的过渡带,是做好珍禽保护工作的一个重要方面。本文以1988年保护区周围乡镇工业污染源调查资料和历年来在保护区越冬的丹顶鹤数量为依据,从污染企业的比例、污染物排放量、排放强度、主要污染物及水环境和大气环境质量等方面,说明周围乡镇工业的发展,尚未对保护区的环境和丹顶鹤等珍禽的栖息产生明显的影响。但是,由于保护区的环境质量要求高,本区乡镇工业又正在迅速发展,因而必须重视乡镇工业的污染问题。本文认为,应当采取以下污染防治措施,以保证本区乡镇工业沿着正确的方向发展:1.统筹兼顾,优化工业布局;2.调整产业结构;3.强化环境管理。     

挠力河流域丹顶鹤繁殖期生境景观连接度分析

将景观连接度分析引入三江平原挠力河流域丹顶鹤繁殖期生境的研究中,确定食物、水、隐蔽所、干扰为丹顶鹤生境选择的主要影响因子,建立繁殖期丹顶鹤的生境适宜性指数(habitat suitability index,HSI)模型,对HSI模型值(Ih,s)进行景观制图并纠正,以此为基础,根据丹顶鹤的领域性和繁殖期最小需求面积,利用缓冲区分析,得到丹顶鹤生境景观连接度可视图,划定景观连接度区域.结果显示:(1)丹顶鹤生境破碎化严重.丹顶鹤适宜生境中的小斑块(面积小于0.1 km2)数量较多,占71.88%,且多呈岛状分布.(2)人类活动是丹顶鹤生境面积缩减及破碎化的主要原因.丹顶鹤的适宜生境面积仅占流域总面积的5.35%.(3)景观连接度、景观斑块间的渗透性是丹顶鹤对适宜生境利用程度降低的重要影响因素.由于景观连接度的影响,丹顶鹤可利用生境面积进一步缩小,仅占适宜生境面积的78.37%.(4)具有一定水平景观连接度的区域沿河流两侧呈条带状分布.     

我国丹顶鹤自然保护区网络设计

针对原有丹顶鹤保护区规划缺乏系统设计思想,保护区面临严重的生境安全这一问题,根据维持生态系统地域完整性和生态过程完整性的原则,采用迭代法和整数规划2种方法,以高、中适宜性湿地面积占各自湿地类型总面积70%和60%为保护目标,研究了丹顶鹤自然保护区的网络设计,提出了丹顶鹤自然保护区网络的设计方案。     

江苏盐城滨海湿地越冬丹顶鹤种群动态变化与生境选择

对2006—2014年江苏盐城滨海湿地越冬丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)种群进行同步调查,分析其中4个年度的种群分布和2个年度的生境利用、选择情况。结果表明,2006—2010年在盐城滨海湿地越冬的丹顶鹤数量呈下降趋势;2010—2014年丹顶鹤种群数量稳定,且略有增长。丹顶鹤分布区域有向核心区集中的趋势。丹顶鹤对苇滩和盐蒿滩表现出正选择,对农田、盐田、水产养殖塘表现出负选择。丹顶鹤种群动态变化及生境选择与保护区内土地利用形式、人类活动和生境变化等因素有关。     

扎龙湿地丹顶鹤巢址空间分布变化及其对环境变化指征

扎龙国家级湿地保护区是我国一级保护鸟类丹顶鹤最重要的集中繁殖栖息地。以扎龙保护区为研究区,利用质心模型和最近邻体模型等方法,模拟1996至2004年间丹顶鹤（Grus japonensis）巢址的空间分布变化,分析这种变化对环境变化的指示作用。结果表明：丹顶鹤种群巢址分布出现向核心区集中的现象,鹤巢平均最近邻体距离大幅减少,巢址的空间分布格局由1996年的均匀分布转变为2004年的成群分布型;丹顶鹤巢址的空间分布变化表明该区环境发生巨大的变化：1996年核心区内栖息资源相对均匀、丰富,而缓冲区和实验区适宜生境呈零星分布格局,此后生境质量经历了由适宜一非适宜,适宜生境空间分布由均匀一斑块化的过程,到2004年各功能区适宜生境数量大幅减少,且核心区内适宜生境斑块化严重。为研究区丹顶鹤种群及其生境的保护和管理提供参考。     

衡阳地区黄刺蛾生活史及滞育习性观察

黄刺蛾Cmdocampa flavescens Walker 是我国林木、果树和园林绿化树上的重要害虫。该虫在湖南省衡阳地区1年发生1代,以老熟幼虫在茧内滞育越夏越冬,越冬幼虫于次年4月中旬开始化蛹,4月下旬至5月上旬为化蛹盛期,5月中旬成虫开始羽化,5月下旬幼虫开始孵化,6月下旬幼虫开始老熟做茧,7月上旬至次年4月中旬为幼虫滞育期。幼虫取食危害期仅1个月左右,幼虫在茧中滞育时间长达280d以上。     

宝兴县大熊猫栖息地生态系统服务价值评估

生态系统服务价值(ESV)评估对衡量生态保护与经济发展具有指导意义.以大熊猫国家公园体制试点区域中的四川省宝兴县为例,利用当量因子法,评估县域尺度生态系统服务价值,比较宝兴县大熊猫栖息地、蜂桶寨保护区与全县单位面积生态系统服务价值差异,并通过敏感性系数(CS),对评估结果的合理性进行验证.结果显示:(1)2010年宝兴县大熊猫栖息地生态系统服务价值为52.46亿元,占总价值的62.73%;(2)蜂桶寨保护区单位面积生态系统服务价值最高,高出全县平均水平327.95元/hm~2,宝兴县大熊猫栖息地略低于蜂桶寨保护区,为27 221.72元/hm~2;(3)各土地利用类型敏感性系数均小于1,评估结果可信.本研究表明已设立的蜂桶寨保护区覆盖面有限,无法使宝兴县大熊猫栖息地得到最大程度的保护,若以大熊猫栖息地规划大熊猫国家公园范围,以62.03%的县域面积保护全县80.93%的森林资源,将更有利于保护大熊猫栖息地的完整性和原真性;研究结果对其他地区国家公园的规划和建设具有一定参考价值.(图4表4参39)     

贵州省雷公山自然保护区发展现状及其对策

雷公山自然保护区以秃杉等珍稀濒危物种和中亚热带山地森林生态系统为主要保护对象。１０多年来，保护区在认真做好自然保护工作的同时，引导地方群众发展生产、脱贫致富，探索了许多适度开发当地资源的实用技术和有效的经济发展模式，促进了地方经济发展，改善了当地群众生活，增强了保护区经济活力。在分析保护区发展现状的基础上，针对目前存在问题，提出保护区今后发展的对策措施。     

对“禁止开发区”规划和管理的几点思考

通过对禁止开发区面临困境和问题的分析探讨,确定了禁止开发区的涵盖范围,并在土地管理、资源保护、财政投资和建设管护等方面提出了相关政策建议,以期为该区的有效管理提供依据。     

城市地下空间开发中的弃土管理和处置对策

城市地下空间的大规模开发利用将产生大量弃土。简要分析了弃土对环境的影响,介绍了弃土管理和处置的现状以及存在的问题,提出了加强立法和管理、优化施工方法和技术、对弃土进行资源化利用、妥善处置已污染的弃土等对策。     

Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts

This paper provides a framework through which a dynamic resource management problem with potential regime shifts can be analyzed both in a strategic environment and from a social planner?s perspective. Based on a fairly general model, a condition for a precautionary policy is discussed. By applying the framework to a common-property resource problem with a linear production technology, we illustrate how the qualitative as well as quantitative nature of equilibrium is altered due to the possibility of regime shifts. In particular, when the risk is endogenously affected by the players? behavior, potential regime shifts can facilitate the precautionary management of resources as long as the resource stock is in good shape. As the stock of resource becomes scarce, however, the precautionary effect vanishes and more aggressive resource exploitation emerges. The impacts of irreversibility on the equilibrium behavior are highlighted. It is also shown that there can exist a resource-depletion trap in which a regime shift, once it happens, triggers a continuous decline of resource stock no matter which regime materializes in the subsequent periods.     

松嫩盆地资源环境信息系统空间数据库的设计与开发

文章介绍了松嫩盆地资源环境信息系统空间数据库的设计思路,总体目标、构成及功能以及系统建立的关键技术。该系统的建立,使得对松嫩盆地资源开发管理和相关信息的查询、检索更方便,同时对松嫩盆地资源合理开发利用和管理决策提供了科学依据。     

太湖流域湖泊滩地资源及其开发利用

在调查和分析太湖流域湖泊滩地资源特征和开发利用状况的基础上,着重探讨了滩地围垦对流域生态环境的影响,并提出今后开发利用滩地资源的方向和对策。     

乌鲁木齐土地环境容载力研究

土地环境容载力包括土地环境区划、土地环境人口容量和土地环境城市建设承载力。在分析乌鲁木齐市土地环境现状的基础上，计算了土地环境容载力。     

Modeling the population dynamics of capybara Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris: a first step towards a management plan

Capybara (Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris) is the largest living rodent, widely distributed in South America, with a considerable potential as an economic resource. There are large populations in the region of Esteros del Ibera that could be exploited in a sustainable manner and contribute positively to the development of the region. Such exploitation requires to be done responsibly and following a specially designed management plan. In the particular case of wildlife management, a sustainable exploitation of a given species requires knowledge of its dynamics, its density in the area, and its vital rates, as well as understanding how the natural environment will respond to the proposed manipulation. It is also important to determine which environmental variables lead the population dynamics in each region. A mathematical model is a very convenient tool for analyzing possible strategies.This work presents a matrix population model structured in five stages. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of the model provide an understanding of the effects of differentiated class-dependent survival and growth probabilities on the life cycle. A harvest term has been included in the model with the purpose of evaluating the sustainability of a given exploitation scenario or comparing different harvest strategies. The different strategies depend on the exploitation pattern, the exploitation intensity, and the season in which the harvest takes place.The purpose is to formulate a simple tool that can be understood by a manager without specific training. Hence, the software interface was specially designed for a user with elementary knowledge of vital parameters of the species.     

Strategic exploitation with learning and heterogeneous beliefs

We study the effect of learning with heterogeneous beliefs on the exploitation of a renewable common-pool resource. To that end, we extend the Great Fish War model of Levhari and Mirman (1980) to a learning environment in which several agents interact strategically and learn about the distribution of the stochastic evolution of the resource. We find that the effect of anticipation of learning with heterogeneous beliefs is twofold. First, the anticipation of learning makes future payoffs more uncertain, which induces the agents to decrease present exploitation due to the precautionary motive. Second, under heterogeneity of beliefs, there is a differential informational externality that induces the agents to increase or decrease present exploitation. We also perform a comparative analysis on the Cournot–Nash equilibrium with learning by studying the effect of optimism and riskiness on resource exploitation.     

Can incomplete information lead to under-exploitation in the commons?

This paper analyzes the protection of a common pool resource (CPR) through the management of information. Specifically, we examine an entry deterrence model between an incumbent perfectly informed about the initial stock of a CPR and an uninformed potential entrant. In our model, the appropriation of the CPR by the incumbent reduces both players' future profits from exploiting the resource. In the case of complete information, we show that the incumbent operating in a high-stock common pool overexploits the CPR during the first period since it does not internalize the negative external effect that its first-period exploitation imposes on the entrant's future profits. This inefficiency, however, is absent when the commons totally regenerate across periods. Under incomplete information, we identify an additional form of inefficiency. In particular, the incumbent operating in a low-stock CPR underexploits the resource in order to signal the low available stock to potential entrants, deterring entry.     

A Bioeconomic Model of Marine Reserve Creation

This paper employs a dynamic and spatial model of renewable resource exploitation to investigate the effects of marine reserve creation. The model combines a metapopulation model incorporating resource patch heterogeneity and dispersal with a behaviorally based spatially explicit harvesting model that assumes that fishermen choose location in a manner that eliminates spatial arbitrage opportunities. The combined spatial bioeconomic model is used to simulate the effects of reserve creation under various ecological structures. We identify parameter configurations and ecological dispersal processes that give rise to a double-payoff in which both aggregate biomass and harvest increase after an area of the fishery is set aside and protected from exploitation.