Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling.

The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises.     

Factors influencing recovery and restoration following a chemical incident

Chemicals are an important part of our society. A wide range of chemicals are discharged into the environment every day from residential, commercial and industrial sources. Many of these discharges do not pose a threat to public health or the environment. However, global events have shown that chemical incidents or accidents can have severe consequences on human health, the environment and society. It is important that appropriate tools and technical guidance are available to ensure that a robust and efficient approach to developing a remediation strategy is adopted. The purpose of remediation is to protect human health from future exposure and to return the affected area back to normal as soon as possible. There are a range of recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) that are applicable to a broad range of chemicals and incidents. Recovery options should be evaluated according to their appropriateness and efficacy for removing contaminants from the environment; however economic drivers and social and political considerations often influence decision makers on which remedial actions are implemented during the recovery phase of a chemical incident. To date, there is limited information in the literature on remediation strategies and recovery options that have been implemented following a chemical incident, or how successful they have been. Additional factors that can affect the approach taken for recovery are not well assessed or understood by decision makers involved in the remediation and restoration of the environment following a chemical incident. The identification of this gap has led to the development of the UK Recovery Handbook for Chemical Incidents to provide a framework for choosing an effective recovery strategy. A compendium of practical evidence-based recovery options (techniques or methods for remediation) for inhabited areas, food production systems and water environments has also been developed and is included in the chemical handbook. This paper presents the key factors that should be considered when developing a recovery strategy with respect to how these may impact on its effectiveness. The paper also highlights the importance of these factors through an evaluation of recovery strategies implemented following real chemical incidents that have been reported in the literature.     

Requirements of future models for inhabited areas

Models for inhabited areas are used in a variety of applications for accidental or continuous releases of radioactivity to atmosphere. Pathways of interest are external exposure from radioactive material in the cloud or deposited on indoor and outdoor surfaces and people, inhalation from the plume and from material resuspended from the ground. In developing a model for inhabited areas it is necessary to consider what the end users may need and ensure that the model is appropriate for the application; different levels of detail may be appropriate for different applications. This paper considers the main processes governing exposure in inhabited areas, commenting on the extent to which we understand them and how well current models reflect this understanding. It also identifies where the authors believe future modelling is needed and the key areas where the current inhabited area models could be improved.     

Quantifying the transfer of radionuclides to food products from domestic farm animals

Databases have been compiled to derive parameter values relevant to the transfer of radionuclides from feedstuffs to domestic animal products to provide a revision to the IAEA Handbook on transfer parameters TRS 364. Significant new data inputs have been incorporated into the databases from an extensive review of Russian language information and inclusion of data published since the early 1990s. Fractional gastrointestinal absorption in adult ruminants presented in the revised handbook are generally similar to those recommended for adult humans by the ICRP. Transfer coefficient values are presented in the handbook for a range of radionuclides to farm animal products. For most animal products, transfer coefficient values for elements additional to those in TRS 364 are provided although many data gaps remain. Transfer coefficients generally vary between species with larger species having lower values than smaller species. It has been suggested that the difference is partly due to the inclusion of dietary dry matter intake in the estimation of transfer coefficient and that whilst dietary intake increases with size nutrient concentrations do not. An alternative approach to quantifying transfer by using concentration ratios (CR), which do not consider dietary intake, has been evaluated. CR values compiled for the handbook vary considerably less between species than transfer coefficient values. The advantage of the CR approach is that values derived for one species could be applied to species for which there are no data. However, transfer coefficients will continue to be used as few studies currently report CR values or give data from which they can be estimated.     

The STRATEGY project: decision tools to aid sustainable restoration and long-term management of contaminated agricultural ecosystems

The STRATEGY project (Sustainable Restoration and Long-Term Management of Contaminated Rural, Urban and Industrial Ecosystems) aimed to provide a holistic decision framework for the selection of optimal restoration strategies for the long-term sustainable management of contaminated areas in Western Europe. A critical evaluation was carried out of countermeasures and waste disposal options, from which compendia of state-of-the-art restoration methods were compiled. A decision support system capable of optimising spatially varying restoration strategies, that considered the level of averted dose, costs (including those of waste disposal) and environmental side effects was developed. Appropriate methods of estimating indirect costs associated with side effects and of communicating with stakeholders were identified. The importance of stakeholder consultation at a local level and of ensuring that any response is site and scenario specific were emphasised. A value matrix approach was suggested as a method of addressing social and ethical issues within the decision-making process, and was designed to be compatible with both the countermeasure compendia and the decision support system. The applicability and usefulness of STRATEGY outputs for food production systems in the medium to long term is assessed.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Shedding light on a neglected area: a new approach to knowledge creation

Awareness is needed of sustainability issues that are currently neglected but potentially important. A computer-based approach can highlight unconscious and neglected areas because it can structure vast amounts of knowledge. In this article, we propose a methodology to perceive unconscious areas of sustainability with the support of a computer-based approach, which creates a matrix, named the recognized-unrecognized matrix, which highlights both local and globally neglected problems. A case study is conducted to consider the potential contribution of the aviation industry to sustainability issues. We demonstrate that a citation network analysis is an effective methodology to chart the recognized-unrecognized matrix. We highlight issues of water use in the aviation industry by designing an innovative water and air circulation system, which significantly reduces water and fuel consumption on board airplane flights. We also suggest a new approach to integrating both explicit and tacit knowledge to enable knowledge creation.     

Dominance based fuzzy decision support framework for g-resilient (ecosilient) supplier selection: an empirical modelling

A novel decision support framework has been proposed herein to solve supplier selection problems by considering green as well as resiliency criteria, simultaneously. An expert team involving a finite number of Decision-Makers (DMs) is to be employed to obtain degree of importance of each of the evaluation criteria and also to assign an appropriate rating for each supplier alternative with respect to the criteria. Since subjective human judgment often bears some sort of ambiguity as well as vagueness, application of fuzzy set theory can be recommended in this context. The present work represents a dominance based decision support system in the light of fuzzy set theory which is basically a simplified version of TODIM and PROMETHEE. It explores dominance between two alternatives with respect to a particular criterion, based on which a global dominance measure is computed to facilitate ranking order of candidate suppliers. The approach proposed in this research seems straightforward which can exclude complex and tedious computational steps of TODIM as well as PROMETHEE. Application potential of the proposed dominance based fuzzy decision-making approach has been compared to that of Fuzzy-TOPSIS and Fuzzy-VIKOR. Good agreement has been observed. In addition to this, the concept of a unique performance index i.e. ‘g-resilient’ (also called ‘ecosilient’) index has been introduced to help in assessing suppliers’ overall performance extent. The work has also been extended to identify the ill (poor)-performing areas in which suppliers are lagging and seek further improvement towards enhancing g-resilient performance level.     

Short and long term dispersion patterns of radionuclides in the atmosphere around the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The Chernobyl accident and unfortunately the recent accident at the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant are the most serious accidents in the history of the nuclear technology and industry. Both of them have a huge and prolonged impact on environment as well as human health. Therefore, any technological developments and strategies that could diminish the consequences of such unfortunate events are undisputedly the most important issues of research. Numerical simulations of dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere after an accidental release can provide with a reliable prediction of the path of the plume. In this study we present a short (one month) and a long (11 years) term statistical study for the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant to estimate the most probable dispersion directions and plume structures of radionuclides on local scale using a Gaussian dispersion model. We analyzed the differences in plume directions and structures in case of typical weather/circulation pattern and provided a statistical-climatological method for a “first-guess” approximation of the dispersion of toxic substances. The results and the described method can support and used by decision makers in such important cases like the Fukushima accident.     

State-of-the-art sustainability analysis methodologies for efficient decision support in green production operations

Over the last three decades, new concepts, strategies, frameworks and systems have been developed to tackle the sustainable development issue. This paper reviews the challenges, perspectives and recent advances in support of sustainable production operations decision-making. The aim of this review is to provide a holistic understanding of advanced scientific analysis methodologies for the evaluation of sustainability, to provide efficient decision support. Over 100 publications have been analysed, and a characterisation of state-of-the-art sustainability analysis methodologies has been produced, which includes life cycle assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), along with their applications to three key areas of production operations: sustainable design, sustainable manufacture and sustainable supply chain management. Distribution of existing work is discussed and future research directions are elicited from the literature. The paper finds three trends in supporting sustainable production operations decisions: (a) sustainability analysis has moved to whole life cycle assessment from single-stage assessment, (b) sustainability analysis has shifted away from single criterion to MCDA and (c) sustainability analysis has evolved from stand-alone approaches to integrated systematic methodologies. The paper concludes that integrated sustainability analysis can provide more efficient and effective support to complex decision-making in sustainable production operations.     

Requirements for estimation of doses from contaminants dispersed by a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion in an urban area

The ARGOS decision support system is currently being extended to enable estimation of the consequences of terror attacks involving chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological substances. This paper presents elements of the framework that will be applied in ARGOS to calculate the dose contributions from contaminants dispersed in the atmosphere after a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion. Conceptual methodologies are presented which describe the various dose components on the basis of knowledge of time-integrated contaminant air concentrations. Also the aerosolisation and atmospheric dispersion in a city of different types of conceivable contaminants from a ‘dirty bomb’ are discussed.     

Radionuclide transfer to animal products: revised recommended transfer coefficient values

A compilation has been undertaken of data which can be used to derive animal product transfer coefficients for radionuclides, including an extensive review of Russian language information. The resultant database has been used to provide recommended transfer coefficient values for a range of radionuclides to (i) cow, sheep and goat milk, (ii) meat (muscle) of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry and (iii) eggs. The values are used in a new IAEA handbook on transfer parameters which replaces that referred to as ‘TRS 364’. The paper outlines the approaches and procedures used to identify and collate data, and assumptions used. There are notable differences between the TRS 364 ‘expected’ values and the recommended values in the revised Handbook from the new database. Of the recommended values, three milk values are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values (Cr, Pu (cow) Pu (sheep)) and one milk value is lower (Ni (cow)). For meat, four values (Am, Cd, Sb (beef) I (pork)) are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values and eight values are at least an order of magnitude lower (Ru, Pu (beef), Ru, Sr, Zn (sheep), Ru, Sr (pork), Mn (poultry)). Many data gaps remain.     

简论藏族聚居区可持续发展与产业结构调整导向

我国藏族人口聚居区由于受资源—环境、劳动力素质和经济发展水平等因素限制,只能选择兼顾经济—生态环境综合效益的可持续发展道路。为此,作者提出了重点开发藏区旅游服务及其相关第三产业,实现产业结构良性调整,建立具有藏区特色的新型产业结构的有关建议与构想。     

Seize the Opportunity and Meet the Challenge to Push China's Sustainable Development Strategy to a New Stage

Abstract

ADMS-Urban is the most widely used advanced dispersion model for urban areas, being used extensively in China and worldwide, providing a practical tool for assessing and managing urban air quality. In this paper we briefly describe the ADMS dispersion models and give an overview of their use in China. And it describes in more detail the use of ADMS-Urban in Fushun in Liaoning province and in Jinan in Shangdong province respectively, for studies of urban air quality. Finally the conclusions are presented.     

Modified approach to modelling radiological consequences from releases into the marine environment

One of the general assumptions for box modelling of the dispersion of radionuclides in marine systems relates to instantaneous mixing in each box which, in turn, results in practical calculations involving instantaneous mixing in the whole of oceanic space. A new approach to box modelling, which includes dispersion of radionuclides as a function of time, was therefore developed in order to provide a better and more realistic/physical approximation to reality relative to traditional box modelling. The novel and significant practical features of the approach are discussed. Calculations of concentrations of radionuclides in the marine environment and doses to man for some scenarios indicate differences of up to orders of magnitude between the traditional and new approaches to box modelling.     

Distribution and abundance of European mole (Talpa europaea L.) in areas affected by two Ural Copper Smelters

The abundance of moles has been studied in 2007–2010 along the gradient of pollution by emissions from the Middle Ural (Middle Urals) and Karabash (Southern Urals) Copper Smelters. It has been estimated by the routing method with regard to the number of inhabited burrows per 1 km. Not a single mole has been recorded in heavily polluted areas near these copper smelters. Under conditions of moderate pollution, the abundance of moles decreased 1.5–1.8 times. The smallest “mole desert” near the source of emissions extends for 90–100 km². A dramatic decrease in the abundance of earthworms, which are the main food object of moles, is considered a possible reason for these changes.     

Spatial distribution and mobility of butterflies in a population of the cranberry fritillary <Emphasis Type="Italic">Boloria aquilonaris</Emphasis> (Lepidoptera,Nymphalidae)

A population of the cranberry fritillary (Boloria aquilonaris) was studied in a forest bog in Southern Karelia. The butterflies in this habitat were distributed unevenly, forming large aggregations in the driest sites overgrown by Comarum palustre. All areas inhabited by the population were interconnected by fluxes of butterflies. The maximum recorded distance covered by a an individual was 1.5 km. The B. aquilonaris residence area was delimited on the basis of an exponential model. Specific features of the spatial organization of B. aquilonaris populations in spatially homogeneous and fragmented environments are discussed.     

突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用

目前在多目标综合评价方面有层次分析、因子分析、模糊评判等诸多方法．但有些方法对权重的确定主观性较大或计算过程过于复杂。介绍了突变理论用于多准则决策问题的基本思想和步骤，该法不需对评价指标赋以权重。它只考虑指标的相对重要性。避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的“权重”概念。因而显得简易。同时．突变级数是一种多维模糊隶属函数。用它来计算通常模糊数学的多目标评价决策问题。就更适宜和更准确。以广东省生态系统健康评价为实例．引用相关文献中的数据构建了适用于突变级数法的层次结构指标体系．运用突变理论中的归一公式。计算了广东省生态系统的健康得分，发现健康排名与实际情况较为符合．证明了该方法的可行性。文章同时使用了加权平均法对指标体系进行计算，通过比较。发现原文献的结果与本文采用的两种方法的评价结果基本一致。尤其是健康程度较好和较坏的区域。实例表明．突变级数法较为简便、快捷和可靠。这为解决区域多目标评价问题提供了一种新的思路。     

The EXPURT model for calculating external gamma doses from deposited material in inhabited areas

EXPURT, NRPB's model for calculating external gamma doses in inhabited areas, was originally developed in the mid-1980s. Deposition on surfaces in the area, the subsequent transfer of material between different surfaces or its removal from the system, and dose rates in various locations from material on the different surfaces are modelled. The model has been updated to take account of more recent experimental data on the transfer rates between surfaces and to make it more flexible for use in assessing dose rates following an accidental release. EXPURT is a compartmental model and models the transfer of material between the surfaces using a set of first order differential equations. It enables the impact of the decontamination of surfaces on doses and dose rates to be explored. The paper describes the EXPURT model and presents some preliminary results obtained using it.