Transport and dynamics of toxic pollutants in the natural environment and their effect on human health: research gaps and challenge

The source–pathway–receptor (SPR) approach to human exposure and risk assessment contains considerable uncertainty when using the refined modelling approaches to pollutant transport and dispersal, not least in how compounds of concern might be prioritised, proxy or indicator substances identified and the basic environmental and toxicological data collected. The impact of external environmental variables, urban systems and lifestyle is still poorly understood. This determines exposure of individuals and there are a number of methods being developed to provide more reliable spatial assessments. Within the human body, the dynamics of pollutants and effects on target organs from diffuse, transient sources of exposure sets ambitious challenges for traditional risk assessment approaches. Considerable potential exists in the application of, e.g. physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The reduction in uncertainties associated with the effects of contaminants on humans, transport and dynamics influencing exposure, implications of adult versus child exposure and lifestyle and the development of realistic toxicological and exposure data are all highlighted as urgent research needs. The potential to integrate environmental with toxicological models provides the next phase of research opportunity and should be used to drive empirical and model assessments.     

Uncertainty propagation in vegetation distribution models based on ensemble classifiers

Ensemble learning techniques are increasingly applied for species and vegetation distribution modelling, often resulting in more accurate predictions. At the same time, uncertainty assessment of distribution models is gaining attention. In this study, Random Forests, an ensemble learning technique, is selected for vegetation distribution modelling based on environmental variables. The impact of two important sources of uncertainty, that is the uncertainty on spatial interpolation of environmental variables and the uncertainty on species clustering into vegetation types, is quantified based on sequential Gaussian simulation and pseudo-randomization tests, respectively. An empirical assessment of the uncertainty propagation to the distribution modelling results indicated a gradual decrease in performance with increasing input uncertainty. The test set error ranged from 30.83% to 52.63% and from 30.83% to 83.62%, when the uncertainty ranges on spatial interpolation and on vegetation clustering, respectively, were fully covered. Shannon’s entropy, which is proposed as a measure for uncertainty of ensemble predictions, revealed a similar increasing trend in prediction uncertainty. The implications of these results in an empirical distribution modelling framework are further discussed with respect to monitoring setup, spatial interpolation and species clustering.     

Health risk assessment maps for arsenic groundwater content: application of national geochemical databases

This investigation assesses the feasibility of calculating and visualizing health risk estimates from exposure to groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As) using data from national geochemical databases. The potential health risk associated with As-contaminated groundwater was assessed based on an elaboration of existing geochemical data in accordance with accepted methodological procedures established for human health risk assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology). A screening analysis approach was used for estimating the contribution of As to the total chronic health risk from exposure to groundwater contaminated with potentially toxic elements, including As, Ba, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn, and the results indicate that As contributes significantly (>50%) to this total health chronic risk in about 10% of Slovak territory. Based on the calculation of the potential risk level by exposure modelling, increased chronic as well as carcinogenic risk levels (medium to high) were documented in approximately 0.2 and 11% of the total Slovak area, respectively. The areas characterized by high health risk levels are mainly those geogenically contaminated. High and very high carcinogenic risk was determined in 34 of 79 districts and in 528 of 2924 municipalities.     

Expositionsabschätzung: Human-Biomonitoring vs. Modellrechnungen

Exposure assessment represents an important and integral part of the assessment of health risks associated with the human exposure to toxic substances in soil and other environmental media. In recent times model calculations are widely used to assess the doses of toxic substances which have been incorporated into the human body via different routes of exposure. The present paper discusses the possibilities and limitations of such model calculations with regard to exposure and risk assessment. A critical point is that the results largely depend on the basic assumptions introduced into the model calculations. Moreover, the results refer to a more or less typical scenario of exposure, although they do not allow any conclusion with regard to individual exposure levels. In contrast, the use of biomarkers of exposure (human biological monitoring) represents a methodological approach to estimate individual exposure levels of subjects exposed to toxic substances in a given situation. In practice, the identification of persons at risk and the exclusion of individual health risks can only be based on human biological monitoring studies. Exposure assessment based on theoretical calculations and exposure assessment based on biomarkers of exposure and effects should be regarded as complementary approaches in exposure and risk assessment.     

Probabilistische Modelle der Expositionsabschätzung

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment can show and help to explicate the uncertainties of deterministic single-point estimates. Heterogeneity in population and exposure parameters (variability) is a part of probabilistic models which makes use of distributions for the main influential factors. The distributions of the target variables are calculated as a model-based combination of all influence factors by Monte Carlo-simulation methods. The differences between classical and probabilistic exposure assessment are demonstrated using a residential area with soil contamination as an example. The estimated arsenic exposure due to soil and dust is calculated by deterministic single-point estimates and probabilistic exposure assessment. The results are compared to the biomonitoring results of an epidemiological study. A criteria catalogue for exposure model validation is given and discussed for this example. In this scenario, the probabilistic exposure prognosis fits the empirical data better than that of a deterministic, single-point assessment. Both approaches seem to overestimate exposure with respect to empirical data.     

Implementation of food frequency questionnaire for the assessment of total dietary arsenic intake in Bangladesh: Part B, preliminary findings

Dietary intake of water and food has been identified as one of the major pathways for arsenic (As) exposure in the rural population of Bangladesh. Therefore, realistic assessment and measurement of dietary intake patterns are important for the development of an accurate estimate of As exposure and human health risk assessment. One important consideration is to identify an appropriate tool for measuring dietary intake. In this study an interviewer-administered Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) was implemented to determine age and gender specific dietary intake. The developed FFQ was unique because it developed a synergy between field dietary assessment and As concentration measurements in various environmental media. The resulting integrated database provided an accurate framework for the process of As exposure and human health risk assessment. The preliminary results reported here from the FFQ demonstrated that this technique could be used in rural areas as a tool to assess As exposure and the associated human health risk.     

Environmental impact assessment for aquatic ecosystems of industrial effluents†

A system of environmental impact assessment of industrial effluents is presented and discussed. Environmental assessment consists of three phases, hazard assessment, risk determination, and societary evaluation. It is regarded an integrated study of natural sciences, i.e. ecochemicology (chemical fate), ecotoxicology (toxical effects), and ecoepidemiology (biological damages); and social sciences, e.g. geography, sociology, and economy. And the outcome should be the basis of political decision making. Hazard assessment may be divided into a subphase of hazard identification from a base set of scientific information on the industrial effluent, and a second subphase of hazard analysis at a more elevated level of scientific information akin to the procedures suggested elsewhere for single chemicals. Methods of hazard assessment are laboratory experiments, e.g. chemical analysis, degradation and bioaccumulation studies, acute and chronic toxicity assessments, physical modelling, etc. Risk determination may then be conducted by extrapolation of the obtained results from laboratory to field, i.e. by risk estimation to the receiving waters, using methods of hydraulic modelling, biological surveillance, etc. Risk‐benefit evaluation is conducted in the society evaluation phase by balancing environmental consequences against the society value of the production. The outcome is determined by the interaction between hazard‐makers (industry), risk‐takers (administrators), guardians (regulators), and assessors (scientists) in risk management, the crank of environmental assessment.     

Aufnahmepfade von POPs in Biota

POPs (persistent organic pollutants) associated with aquatic sediments can pose a risk to aquatic food chains, since they can be re-introduced to the food web. One major pathway is the bioaccumulation of POPs by endobenthic, sedimentingesting invertebrates (especially tubificid oligochaetes). These worms serve as food for benthivorous fish, which thereby ingest the sediment-borne chemicals and may accumulate contaminant concentrations far higher than from water exposure alone, and consequently transfer them to organisms of higher trophic levels. In order to evaluate such a potential biomagnification, a laboratory test was developed. It consisted of a two-step food chain including the sediment dwelling freshwater oligochaete Tubifex tubifex (Müller) and the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus, Linné), a small teleost fish which often feeds primarily on benthic invertebrates. Artificial sediment and reconstituted water were used. To examine the influence of benthic prey on the bioaccumulation of a POP in the predator, fish were exposed to ¹⁴C-labelled hexachlorobenzene via spiked water, spiked sediment, pre-contaminated prey organisms, and to combinations of these exposure routes. Summarising the results of these experiments, it could be shown that the exposure to HCB via different routes resulted in a significantly higher accumulation in fish than an exposure to single pathways. It was concluded that the major uptake routes for fish were the overlying water and the food, whereas the contribution of spiked sediment itself was relatively small. HCB was biomagnified in the rested laboratory food chain. Therefore, concerning secondary poisoning, the environmental risk assessment of POPs like HCB should not be based on existing bioaccumulation tests alone, since they focus only on exposure via the water pathway. Instead, the influence of food and sediment as exposure routes should be considered as well, using comprehensive food chain modelling and/or laboratory studies.     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Probabilistic prediction of exposures to arsenic contaminated residential soil

Probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo simulation has been proposed as a more scientifically valid method of estimating soil contaminant exposures than conservative deterministic methods currently used by regulatory agencies. A retrospective application of probabilistic modelling to an exposure scenario involving arsenic-contaminated residential soil near the former ASARCO smelter near Tacoma, Washington is presented. The population of interest is children, aged 2–6 years, living within one-half mile (0.3 km) of the smelter site. Models that predict urinary arsenic levels based on unintentional soil ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways are used. Distributions of exposure variables are based on site-specific data and previous exposure studies. Simulated urinary arsenic levels are compared with data from two biomonitoring studies performed during the late 1980s. Arsenic distributions produced by simulation and biomonitoring are significantly different, and likely contributors to this difference are discussed. However the probabilistic model provides closer estimations of urinary arsenic levels than conservative deterministic models similar to those used by regulatory agencies, and provides useful information regarding parameter uncertainty. Soil ingestion rate was a driving variable in the probabilistic models. Further quantification of soil ingestion rates is warranted.     

RBCA、CLEA及CalTOX模型在苯并[a]芘污染场地健康风险评估中的应用比较

为探讨不同模型对污染场地健康风险评估结果的影响,以苯并[a]芘为例,采用RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型对某工业污染场地表层土壤进行健康风险评估,分析了评估结果的差异和原因,同时对模型的主要暴露参数进行了敏感性分析,并推导出基于风险概率分布的土壤修复限值。结果表明,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型计算的苯并[a]芘致癌总风险分别为2.40×10-4、6.32×10-4和7.04×10-6,且经口摄入和皮肤接触2个途径对人体健康造成的危害最大。降解作用是影响CalTOX模型风险评估结果不同于RBCA和CLEA模型的重要因素,3个模型间参数取值及方法学的差异也会导致风险评估结果不同。各模型暴露参数的敏感性排序也有差异。采用基于风险概率分布的方法推导土壤修复限值,RBCA、CLEA和CalTOX模型所得结果分别为0.18、0.08、0.13(不考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)和10.74(考虑降解作用CalTOX模型)mg·kg-1,为各模型直接推导值的1.5～2.6倍。基于风险概率分布的方法可有效降低风险评估过程中参数不确定性的影响,为工业污染场地土壤修复值的制定提供参考。     

国内外农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳述评

在阐明农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳的概念和功能的基础上,介绍了美国PE〔PRZM（pesticide root zonemodel）-EXAMS（exposure analysis modeling system）〕系列外壳和EXPRESS（EXAMS-PRZM exposure simulation shell）系列外壳、欧盟SWASH（surface water scenarios help）外壳及中国PRAESS（pesticide risk assessment exposure simula-tion shell）外壳这几种已开发的农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳的开发目的、结构组成、输入参数、运行方式和输出结果等方面的内容,并比较分析了各暴露模拟外壳在包含模型、包含场景、模拟水体类型和主要输出结果方面的异同点,期望为我国农药生态风险评价,尤其是暴露评价研究提供有益借鉴。     

Modelling the concentrations of dissolved contaminants (Cd,Cu, Ni,Pb, Zn) in floodplain soils

Central European floodplain soils are often contaminated with potentially toxic metals. The prediction of their aqueous concentrations is a prerequisite for an assessment of environmental concerns. We tested the aqueous concentrations of cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) derived from multi-surface adsorption modelling (on hydrous iron, aluminum and manganese oxides, clay and soil organic matter) against those analyzed in situ in the soil solution of four horizons of floodplain soils at the Elbe River, Germany. The input data for the reactive metals were derived from a seven-step sequential extraction scheme or from extraction with 0.43 M nitric acid (HNO₃) and evaluated in four modelling scenarios. In all scenarios, measured and modelled concentrations were positively related, except partially for Pb. Close reproduction of the measured data was obtained using measured data of accompanying cations and anions together with amounts of reactive metals from both the sequential extraction or from 0.43 M HNO₃ extraction, except for Cu, which was often strongly overestimated, and partially Cd. We recommend extraction with 0.43 M HNO₃ to quantify reactive metals in soil because the modelling results were metal-specific with better or equal results using the single extractant, the application of which is also less laborious. Approximations of ion concentrations and water contents yielded similar results. Modelled solid-phase speciation of metals varied with pH and differed from that from sequential extraction. Multi-surface modelling may be an effective tool to predict both aqueous concentrations and solid-phase speciation of metals in soil.     

地方性砷中毒地区环境砷暴露健康风险研究进展

自然因素引起的环境高砷暴露及其健康效应,尤其是饮水型地方性砷中毒是砷污染健康风险评估的基础。总结地方性砷中毒在环境砷暴露的风险识别、暴露途径和暴露与健康效应关系研究中的作用基础上,指出了地方性砷中毒研究中仅强调了饮水污染,关注的暴露途径比较单一,因此,人体多途径联合砷暴露的健康风险评估过程存在较大的不确定性。我国是唯一存在饮水和燃煤2种自然环境高砷暴露的国家,是研究2种类型砷暴露异同的天然场地,然而目前环境高砷的暴露及其健康效应的研究均为独立研究,对燃煤型地方性砷中毒在呼吸链砷暴露风险评估中的作用重视不够。因此,通过开展两种环境砷暴露及其健康效应的综合比较研究,建立呼吸链暴露评估和暴露-健康效应模型,可以为人体多途径联合砷暴露的健康风险研究提供新的依据。     

健康风险评估方法在中国重金属污染中的应用及暴露评估模型的研究进展

经济的快速发展导致中国环境质量日趋恶化.随着健康意识的增强,人们越来越重视污染物暴露人群的健康风险评估.与其他污染物相比,重金属污染区域广,重金属暴露人群多且集中.为了研究重金属暴露条件下人群的健康风险,USEPA 模型、统计模型、地理信息系统、可给性研究的方法已被中国不同学者应用.暴露评估模型作为污染物暴露人群健康风险评估的主要环节,国外的研究已经比较成熟,但相关研究在中国还处于空白阶段.对中国近年来在城市表层土壤（灰尘）、矿区土壤、膳食、地下水和饮用水、大气颗粒物进行重金属风险评估中应用的健康风险评估方法,进行了归纳和评述,并对欧美常用暴露评估模型：环境暴露评估模型、膳食暴露评估模型进行了介绍.中国健康风险评估工作起步晚,在评估的各环节均存在很大缺陷.随着新技术的发展以及人群对环境健康风险认识的深化,健康风险评估将成为中国热门研究领域之一.污染的环境行为、剂量一效应关系、模型、风险信息等方面,将是未来中国健康风险评估研究的重点.     

Modelling short-term effects of ozone on morbidity: an application to the city of Milano,Italy, 1995–2003

In this paper, we explore a range of concerns that arise in measuring short-term effects of ozone on health. In particular, we tackle the problem of measuring exposure using alternative daily measures of ozone derived from hourly concentrations. We adopt the exposure paradigm of Chiogna and Bellini (Environmetrics 13:55–69, 2002) extending it to ozone concentrations, and we compare its performances with respect to traditional exposure measures by exploiting model selection. To investigate the stability of model selection, we then apply the idea of bootstrapping the modelling process.     

Chemical characterization and health risk assessment of soil and airborne particulates metals and metalloids in populated semiarid region,Agra, India

Rapid industrialization and urbanization have contaminated air and soil by heavy metals and metalloids from biogenic, geogenic and anthropogenic sources in many areas of the world, either directly or indirectly. A case study was conducted in three different microenvironments, i.e., residential sites, official sites and official sites; for each sites, we choose two different locations to examine the elemental concentration in fine particulate matter and soil and health risk assessment. The concentration values of heavy metals and metalloid in the air and soil in the Agra region were measured using inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrophotometry. The exposure factor and health risk assessment for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects due to heavy metals and metalloid contaminants have been calculated for both children and adults by following the methodology prescribed by USEPA. For the elements As, Cr, Cd, Ni and Pb selected for the carcinogenic health risk assessment, the calculated results lie above the threshold ranges. We observed the lifetime exposure to heavy metals through mainly three pathways, ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact of soil and air from that particular area. Therefore, the overall hazard quotient (HQ) values for children are more than that of adults. The assessment of health risk signifies that there were mainly three exposure pathways for people: ingested, dermal contact and inhalation. The major exposure pathway of heavy metals to both children and adults is ingestion. The values of HQ are higher than the safe level (=1), indicating a high risk exists in present condition. Meanwhile, HQs value for children is higher than that for adults, indicating that children have higher potential health risk than adults in this region.

     

防污漆中活性物质海洋环境风险评估关键技术探讨

防污漆中的活性物质对海洋生态环境和人类健康造成的潜在风险受到日益广泛的关注,一些发达国家已建立了针对活性物质海洋环境风险评估的技术体系,但我国相关研究目前尚属空白。综述了防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估的研究背景、相关法规、技术标准和发展现状,针对环境风险评估的2个重要组成部分(危害性评估和暴露评估)中的关键技术进行了探讨。在危害性评估中,重点分析和比较了受试生物物种的选择原则、生态毒理数据的要求以及预测无效应浓度的推导方法和应用范围;在暴露评估中,系统阐述了活性物质在水环境中释放速率的计算及修正方法、环境浓度的预测模型、现有的暴露场景及其局限性等。本文以期为我国开展防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估提供研究基础和科学依据,并提出了今后的研究重点和方向。     

基于RICEWQ—EXAMS模型的东苕溪流域稻田用药的水生生态及健康风险评价

构建了东苕溪流域水稻地表水暴露场景,对国外已广泛应用的稻田-地表水暴露评价模型（RICEWQ—EX—AMS）进行二次开发,并应用构建的场景和开发的模型对东苕溪流域稻田常用农药品种进行水生生态风险评价和健康风险评价。结果表明,在所评价的10种东苕溪流域常用农药品种中,除草剂氟乐灵对藻具有急性高风险,杀虫剂硫丹对鱼既具有急性高风险,又具有慢性风险,阿维菌素对泾具有急性高风险,氟铃脲对涵既具有急性高风险,又具有慢性风险,其余品种对鱼、溢和藻的急慢性风险均较低。运用传统评价法和风险评价模型计算法得出了相一致的结论,即所评价的10个农药品种对人体健康均无风险,该评价结果与所评价农药的实际风险表现较吻合。认为所构建的场景、模型能较好地用于东苕溪流域稻田农药品种的风险评价。     

环境多介质中PCDD/Fs人群健康风险评价——以珠江三角洲为例

基于珠江三角洲不同环境介质（水体、大气和土壤）及食物中PCDD/Fs的研究资料,利用VLIER-HUMAAN模型评估了该区域不同暴露途径下PCDD/Fs对人群潜在健康风险。结果表明：珠江三角洲地区人群平均每日摄入PCDD/Fs的量（TDI）为3.312 pg WHO1998-TEQ/kg·d-1,低于世界卫生组织（WHO）组织推荐的容许标准（4 pg WHO1998-TEQ/kg·d-1）。从暴露途径来看,珠江三角洲地区成年人摄入PCDD/Fs的主要途径食物摄取,约占了98.0%。在食物暴露中,水产品是主要途径,约占总摄入量的70%,蔬菜和肉蛋类分别占了16.6%和10.5%,其它较低。水产品是PCDD/Fs引起人群健康风险的重要风险源,应采取有效措施保障水产品质量,同时,调整饮食结构,降低PCDD/Fs暴露的潜在风险。