Population dynamics of beech scale (Cryptococcus fagisuga) (Coccina,Pseudococcidae) related to physiological defence reactions of attacked beech trees (Fagus sylvatica)

Summary Changes in the density of beech scale infestation (Cryptococcus fagisuga) of a mature beech stand (Fagus sylvatica) were investigated after gap-cutting in limed and unlimed areas bordering on the gaps and in untreated areas over a 5-year period. Parallelly the concentrations of sucrose, protein amino acids, and procyanidins were examined in the inner and outer bark of non-infested beech trees and beeches infested by beech scale.Irrespective of liming in the areas bordering on the gaps the proportion of beech trees with increasing beech scale infestation was significantly higher, the proportion of beeches with diminishing infestation was significantly lower than in the untreated control areas. Trees with the same infestation tendency occurred in clusters.Physiological defence reactions in the inner and outer bark of the infested beech trees were registrated as an increase in the procyanidin content and a decrease in the protein amino acid content. A change in the outer bark—inner bark—ratio of the infested beech trees showed a transfer of compounds between the inner and outer bark. During the period of observation long-lasting shifts occurred in the pattern of compounds of the bark irrespective of actual infestation intensity.     

浑善达克沙地油松树轮宽度与气候因子的关系

为探讨不同径级油松对气候因子敏感度的差异,利用树木年轮学方法研究浑善达克沙地油松林40株油松样本建立的大径级(平均胸径34.5 cm)和小径级(平均胸径15.5 cm)油松的年轮宽度年表与气候因子的关系.结果表明:油松的平均敏感度与胸径大小呈线性负相关;不同径级油松的标准年表对气候因子的响应存在一致性,均表现为与春季温度正相关而与夏季温度负相关,并与降水呈正相关关系;其中与当年1~2月、当年9月的平均温度和最高温度呈显著正相关(P<0.05),与当年6月的平均温度和最高温度呈显著负相关(P<0.05);与当年1~2月和8~9月的最低温度呈显著正相关(P<0.05),与上年10月、当年5月和当年7月的降水呈显著正相关(P<0.05);同时,不同径级油松的标准年表对气候因子的响应还具有一定的差异性,即仅小径级油松表现为与当年6月的降水呈显著正相关(P<0.05),与当年7月的最高温度呈显著负相关(P<0.05).因此,利用树木生态学研究时应该考虑不同径级油松树轮年表对气候因子的响应差异.     

Bridging the gap between ecophysiological and genetic knowledge to assess the adaptive potential of European beech

In this study we aimed to combine knowledge of the ecophysiology and genetics of European beech to assess the potential of this species to adapt to environmental change. Therefore, we performed field and experimental studies on the genetic and ecophysiological functioning of beech. This information was integrated through a coupled genetic–ecophysiological model for individual trees that was parameterized with information derived from our own studies or from the literature. Using the model, we evaluated the adaptive response of beech stands in two ways: firstly, through sensitivity analyses (of initial genetic diversity, pollen dispersal distance, heritability of selected phenotypic traits, and forest management, representing disturbances) and secondly, through the evaluation of the responses of phenotypic traits and their genetic diversity to four management regimes applied to 10 study plots distributed over Western Europe. The model results indicate that the interval between recruitment events strongly affects the rate of adaptive response, because selection is most severe during the early stages of forest development. Forest management regimes largely determine recruitment intervals and thereby the potential for adaptive responses. Forest management regimes also determine the number of mother trees that contribute to the next generation and thereby the genetic variation that is maintained. Consequently, undisturbed forests maintain the largest amount of genetic variation, as recruitment intervals approach the longevity of trees and many mother trees contribute to the next generation. However, undisturbed forests have the slowest adaptive response, for the same reasons.Gene flow through pollen dispersal may compensate for the loss in genetic diversity brought about by selection. The sensitivity analysis showed that the total genetic diversity of a 2 ha stand is not affected by gene flow if the pollen distance distribution is varied from highly left-skewed to almost flat. However, a stand with a prevailing short-distance gene flow has a more pronounced spatial genetic structure than stands with equal short- and long-distance gene flows. The build-up of a spatial genetic structure is also strongly determined by the recruitment interval. Overall, the modelling results indicate that European beech has high adaptive potential to environmental change if recruitment intervals are short and many mother trees contribute to the next generation.The findings have two implications for modelling studies on the impacts of climate change on forests. Firstly: it cannot be taken for granted that parameter values remain constant over a time horizon of even a few generations – this is particularly important for threshold values subject to strong selection, like budburst, frost hardiness, drought tolerance, as used in species area models. Secondly: forest management should be taken into account in future assessments, as management affects the rate of adaptive response and thereby the response on trees and forests to environmental change, and because few forests are unmanaged. We conclude that a coupled ecophysiological and quantitative genetic tree model is a useful tool for such studies.     

Evaluation of some competition indices for the construction of Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) stand models

The purpose of this research is to test the precision of some published competition indices of Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) for the estimation of future periodic diameter increment of individual trees. Twenty- nine published competition indices were tested, using fifteen separate sets of data and their pooled values, collected from various stand age and site quality classes Lebanon cedar at Antalya. Temporary sample plots were taken in Elmali-Qamkuyusu (9 sample plots) and Finike-Pinarcik (6 sample plots) in 2001. Every plot was stem mapped (x and y coordinate system), diameter (dbh), total height, crown length, crown diameter and 10-year radial increment were recorded for trees greater than 4 cm in dbh. Then, in order to evaluate these competition indices for the prediction of the periodic diameter increment of the individual trees. Three linear models have been constructed for each competition index. It was found that the competition indices (Daniels et al., 1986; Biging and Dobbertin, 1995; Pukkala and Kolstr?m, 1987; Hegyi, 1974) with larger influence-zone areas produce better results.     

Ozone‐induced xeromorphism of beech leaves (Fagus sylvatica L.)

The influence of different concentrations of ozone under different light intensities on young trees of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is studied. Young beeches were exposed continuously for 5 months in fumigation chambers, located outdoors, with 131±30/μg/m³O₃, and for 2 months in fumigation chambers, located in air‐conditioned greenhoouses, with 100±10, 200±20 and 300±30/μg/m³O₃, respectively. The observed symptoms point towards an increased xeromorphism in beech leaves, positively influenced by high light intensities. Ozone‐induced water stress may be the cause of xeromorphic tissue changes. On the ultrastructural level chloroplasts have become senescent.     

Assessing the performance of theoretical and empirical tree mortality models using tree-ring series of Norway spruce

Successional dynamics of forests under current and changed climate are often investigated using gap models, a subset of forest succession models that simulate establishment, growth, and mortality of trees. However, the mortality submodels of gap models are largely based on theoretical assumptions, and have not been tested in detail.In the present study, we compared the performance of a range of theoretical mortality functions (TMFs) that are commonly used in gap models with several empirical mortality functions (EMFs) that were derived using logistic regression from growth patterns of tree-ring series as predictor variables. Data from dead and living Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees from subalpine forests at three study sites in Switzerland were used to this end.Three of the four EMFs consistently performed better at all three sites, while three of the four TMFs performed worse than the remaining mortality functions. At one site, these three EMFs correctly classified 71–78% of the dead trees (48–72% for the three TMFs) and 73% (49–64%) of the living trees. 44–54% (21–25%) of the dead trees were predicted to die within 15 years prior to death. 0–2% (7–10%) of the dead trees and 5% (19–31%) of the living trees were predicted to die more than 60 years prior to the last measured year.We conclude that, unless the parameters of the TMFs are optimized for individual species, the TMFs are not appropriate to predict the time of tree death, in spite of their widespread use. A substantial change in simulated forest succession is to be expected if the currently implemented TMFs in gap models are replaced by species-specific EMFs.     

Pre-growth mortality of Abies cilicica trees and mortality models performance

In this study, we compared tree-growth rates (basal area increment) from recently dead and living Taurus fir (Abies cilicica Carr.) trees in the Kovada lake Forest of Isparta, Turkey. For each dead tree, tree-growth rates were analyzed for the presence of pre-death growth depressions in the study area (number of sample plots = 11) in 2006. However, we compared both the magnitude and rate of growth prior to death to a control (living) group of trees. Basal area increment (BAI) averaged substantially less during the last 10 years before death than for control trees. Trees that died started diverging in growth, on average, 50-60 years before death. About 18% of trees that died had chronically slow growth, 46% had pronounced declines in growth, whereas 36% had good growth up to death. However, tree-ring-based growth patterns of dead and living Taurus fir trees were compared and used 12 mortality models that were derived using logistic regression from growth patterns of tree-ring series as predictor variables. The four models with the highest overall performance correctly classified 43.8-56.3% of all dead trees and 75.0-87.5% of all living trees, and they predicted 25.0-43.8% of all dead trees to die within 0-15 years prior to the actual year of death.     

Forest structure and light regimes following moderate wind storms: implications for multi-cohort management.

Moderate-severity disturbances appear to be common throughout much of North America, but they have received relatively little detailed study compared to catastrophic disturbances and small gap dynamics. In this study, we examined the immediate impact of moderate-intensity wind storms on stand structure, opening sizes, and light regimes in three hemlock-hardwood forests of northeastern Wisconsin. These were compared to three stands managed by single-tree and group selection, the predominant forest management system for northern hardwoods in the region. Wind storms removed an average of 41% of the stand basal area, compared to 27% removed by uneven-aged harvests, but both disturbances removed trees from a wide range of size classes. The removal of nearly half of the large trees by wind in two old-growth stands caused partial retrogression to mature forest structure, which has been hypothesized to be a major disturbance pathway in the region. Wind storms resulted in residual stand conditions that were much more heterogeneous than in managed stands. Gap sizes ranged from less than 10 m2 up to 5000 m2 in wind-disturbed stands, whereas the largest opening observed in managed stands was only 200 m2. Wind-disturbed stands had, on average, double the available solar radiation at the forest floor compared to managed stands. Solar radiation levels were also more heterogeneous in wind-disturbed stands, with six times more variability at small scales (0.1225 ha) and 15 times more variability at the whole-stand level. Modification of uneven-aged management regimes to include occasional harvests of variable intensity and spatial pattern may help avoid the decline in species diversity that tends to occur after many decades of conventional uneven-aged management. At the same time, a multi-cohort system with these properties would retain a high degree of average crown cover, promote structural heterogeneity typical of old-growth forests, and maintain dominance by late-successional species.     

Plants control the seasonal dynamics of microbial N cycling in a beech forest soil by belowground C allocation

Soil microbes in temperate forest ecosystems are able to cycle several hundreds of kilograms of N per hectare per year and are therefore of paramount importance for N retention. Belowground C allocation by trees is an important driver of seasonal microbial dynamics and may thus directly affect N transformation processes over the course of the year. Our study aimed at unraveling plant controls on soil N cycling in a temperate beech forest at a high temporal resolution over a time period of two years, by investigating the effects of tree girdling on microbial N turnover. In both years of the experiment, we discovered (1) a summer N mineralization phase (between July and August) and (2) a winter N immobilization phase (November-February). The summer mineralization phase was characterized by a high N mineralization activity, low microbial N uptake, and a subsequent high N availability in the soil. During the autumn/winter N immobilization phase, gross N mineralization rates were low, and microbial N uptake exceeded microbial N mineralization, which led to high levels of N in the microbial biomass and low N availability in the soil. The observed immobilization phase during the winter may play a crucial role for ecosystem functioning, since it could protect dissolved N that is produced by autumn litter degradation from being lost from the ecosystem during the phase when plants are mostly inactive. The difference between microbial biomass N levels in winter and spring equals 38 kg N/ha and may thus account for almost one-third of the annual plant N demand. Tree girdling strongly affected annual N cycling: the winter N immobilization phase disappeared in girdled plots (microbial N uptake and microbial biomass N were significantly reduced, while the amount of available N in the soil solution was enhanced). This was correlated to a reduced fungal abundance in autumn in girdled plots. By releasing recently fixed photosynthates to the soil, plants may thus actively control the annual microbial N cycle. Tree belowground C allocation increases N accumulation in microorganisms during the winter which may ultimately feed back on plant N availability in the following growing season.     

Statistical treatment for the wet bias in tree-ring chronologies: a case study from the Interior West,USA

Dendroclimatic research has long assumed a linear relationship between tree-ring increment and climate variables. However, ring width frequently underestimates extremely wet years, a phenomenon we refer to as ‘wet bias’. In this paper, we present statistical evidence for wet bias that is obscured by the assumption of linearity. To improve tree-ring-climate modeling, we take into account wet bias by introducing two modified linear regression models: a linear spline regression (LSR) and a likelihood-based wet bias adjusted linear regression (WBALR), in comparison with a quadratic regression (QR) model. Using gridded precipitation data and tree-ring indices of multiple species from various sites in Utah, both LSR and WBALR show a significant improvement over the linear regression model and out-perform QR in terms of in-sample \({R}^{2}\) and out-of-sample MSE. This further shows that the wet bias emerges from nonlinearity of tree-ring chronologies in reconstructing precipitation. The pattern and extent of wet bias varies by species, by site, and by precipitation regime, making it difficult to generalize the mechanisms behind its cause. However, it is likely that dis-coupling between precipitation amounts (e.g., percent received as rain/snow or percent infiltrating the soil) and its availability to trees (e.g., root zone dynamics), is the primary mechanism driving wet bias.     

Effects of the Interaction between Genetic Diversity and UV-B Radiation on Wood Frog Fitness

Abstract:  Genetic diversity may buffer amphibian populations against environmental vicissitudes. We hypothesized that wood frogs (  Rana sylvatica ) from populations with lower genetic diversity are more susceptible to ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation than those from populations with higher diversity. We used RAPD markers to obtain genetic diversity estimates for 12 wood frog populations. We reared larval wood frogs from these populations and exposed experimental groups of eggs and larvae to one of three treatments: unfiltered sunlight, sunlight filtered through a UV-B-blocking filter (Mylar), and sunlight filtered through a UV-B-transmitting filter (acetate). In groups exposed to UV-B, larval mortality and deformity rates increased significantly, but egg mortality did not. We found a significant negative relationship between genetic diversity and egg mortality, larval mortality, and deformity rates. Furthermore, the interaction between UV-B treatment and genetic diversity significantly affected larval mortality. Populations with low genetic diversity experienced higher larval mortality rates when exposed to UV-B than did populations with high genetic diversity. This is the first time an interaction between genetic diversity and an environmental stressor has been documented in amphibians. Differences in genetic diversity among populations, coupled with environmental stressors, may help explain patterns of amphibian decline.     

Thinning effects on production, root biomass and some soil properties in a young oriental beech stand in Artvin, Turkey

In this study, three thinning treatments were applied on a 0.54 ha young oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky) stand (25-30 years old) in Karadag, Artvin in the fall of 1999. The treatments were: (1) no thinning, (2) light thinning, and (3) heavy thinning. Prior to thinning, the stand averaged 15000 trees ha(-1) and 40.0 m2 ha(-1) of basal area, with an average mean diameter of 5 cm. Thinning reduced stand basal areas to about 31.1 and 24.9 m2 ha(-1) for the light and heavy thinning treatments, respectively. After 3-years, diameter increment was the highest in heavily thinned stand and the lowest in unthinned stand. The increment in stand basal area was about 10, 18 and 27% in the unthinned, lightly thinned, and heavily thinned stands, respectively. Fine root biomass significantly decreased with thinning and thinning had no significant effects on soil pH and soil organic matter content.     

Application of tree-ring isotopic analyses to reconstruct historical water use of riparian trees.

Historical patterns of water source use by trees inferred from long-term records of tree-ring stable isotopic content could assist in evaluating the impact of human alterations to natural stream flow regimes (e.g., water impoundments, stream flow diversions, and groundwater extraction). Our objective was to assess the utility of the hydrogen stable isotopic composition (SD) of tree rings as an index of historical water source use by riparian trees. We investigated the influence of site conditions that varied in climate and hydrology on the relationship between deltaD of Populus xylem water (deltaD(xyl)) and tree-ring cellulose (deltaD(cell)). deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(cell) were strongly correlated across sites (r2 = 0.89). However, the slope of this relationship was less than 1, indicating that factors other than deltaD(xyl) influenced deltaD(cell). Inverse modeling with an isotopic fractionation model for tree-ring cellulose suggested that the lack of one-to-one correspondence between deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(cell) was due to the influence of the hydrogen isotopic content of the atmospheric water vapor (deltaD(atm)). Empirically measured values of deltaD(cell) were typically within the seasonal range of deltaD(cell) predicted from the fractionation model. Sensitivity analyses showed that changes in deltaD(xyl) generally had a greater influence at high-elevation montane sites, whereas deltaD(xyl) and deltaD(atm) had about equal influence on deltaD(cell) at low-elevation desert sites. The intrasite relationship between deltaD(cell) and deltaD(xyl) among individual trees was poor, perhaps because of the within-site spatial variation in hydrologic conditions and associated tree physiological responses. Our study suggests that historical variation in deltaD(cell) of Populus provides information on historical variation in both time-integrated water source use and atmospheric conditions; and that the influence of atmospheric conditions is not consistent over sites with large differences in temperature and humidity. Reconstruction of xylem water sources of Populus in riparian ecosystems from deltaD(cell) will be more direct at higher elevation mountain sites than at low-elevation desert sites.     

Forest production model for upland black spruce stands—Optimal site occupancy levels for maximizing net production

The objective of this study was to develop a forest production model for determining optimal density management regimes for upland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stands based on the maximization of net production. This objective was attained via the development of an allometrically extended stand density management diagram (SDMD), which was used to describe the mass dynamics of biotic and abiotic tree components by initial density regime, site quality and fine root turnover rate. Specifically, periderm, stem, branch, foliage and abiotic crown masses were estimated employing multivariate allometric regression functions based on data derived from 125 destructively sampled trees. Below-ground mass estimates were obtained using generalized allometric relationships derived from the literature. Abiotic masses included three basic components: (1) allometrically estimated retained woody debris consisting of abiotic crown structures that remained attached to the main stem; (2) fine woody debris arising from needle loss, root turnover, and abscission of modular components; (3) coarse woody debris arising from trees which incurred mortality through self-thinning. The algorithmic version of the model (1) simultaneously calculates periodic annual net production estimates (Mg/ha/year) by 10-year intervals over 100-year rotation lengths for eight initial density conditions, (2) given (1), determines the occupancy level for which net production is maximized for each stage of development (decade interval), and (3) given (2), determines the optimal size–density trajectory within the context of a SDMD. Additionally, results derived from multiple model simulations employing a range of initial densities (1500, 1650,…, 16,350 stems/ha), site indices (9, 10,…, 15 m) and fine root turnover rates (0.2, 0.3,…,0.8 proportion/year), indicated that black spruce productivity was maximized when site occupancies were maintained slightly below the zone of imminent competition mortality. Instructions for acquiring an executable version of the model through the Internet are also included.     

Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information

There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or require some parameter or model tuning.     

西大别山百战坪黄山松径向生长对气候因子的响应

研究基于标准的树轮年代学研究方法（样芯经固定、晾干、打磨、交叉定年、测量和标准化等处理）,首次建立了大别山西部的黄柏山百战坪的黄山松树轮宽度标准年表。研究发现,黄山松宽度年表有较高的信噪比SNR和样本解释总量EPS,表明树轮宽度年表中含有较多的气候信息,适合做树轮气候学研究。树轮宽度年表与气象因子关系的研究结果显示,黄山松树轮宽度与上一年10月、12月及当年的5月至9月的气温（包括月均最高气温、月均温和月均最低气温）呈较高的负相关,且在上一年的12月和当年7月月均最高气温和月均温的限制作用较强,而上一年10月月均温限制作用最大,这表明上一年生长季末和当年生长季中的高温通过对水分的影响限制黄山松的生长。树轮指数与当年2月、4月至7月的月降水及月相对湿度（6月份除外）均呈较高正相关,说明在进入生长期前后充足水分对黄山松生长有促进作用,但当降水或相对湿度过大时（如上年8月与当年6月）对黄山松生长就起到一定的限制作用。本研究结果填补了大别山西段树木年轮研究的空白,为该区域树木年轮气候重建研究提供参考和基础数据,也为黄柏山自然保护区今后的森林培育和森林管理提供了一定的理论依据。     

On the latent state estimation of nonlinear population dynamics using Bayesian and non-Bayesian state-space models

Nonlinear state-space models have been increasingly applied to study population dynamics and data assimilation in environmental sciences. State-space models can account for process error and measurement error simultaneously to correct for the bias in the estimates of system state and model parameters. However, few studies have compared the performance of different nonlinear state-space models for reconstructing the state of population dynamics from noisy time series. This study compared the performance of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and Bayesian nonlinear state-space models (BNSSM) through simulations. Synthetic population time series were generated using the theta logistic model with known parameters, and normally distributed process and measurement errors were introduced using the Monte Carlo simulations. At higher levels of nonlinearity, the UKF and BNSSM had lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the EKF. The BNSSM performed reliably across all levels of nonlinearity, whereas increased levels of nonlinearity resulted in higher RMSE of the EKF. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs algorithm was used to fit the theta logistic model to synthetic time series to estimate model parameters. The estimated posterior distribution of the parameter θ indicated that the 95% credible intervals included the true values of θ (=0.5 and 1.5), but did not include 1.0 and 0.0. Future studies need to incorporate the adaptive Metropolis algorithm to estimate unknown model parameters for broad applications of Bayesian nonlinear state-space models in ecological studies.     

Partitioning the factors of spatial variation in regeneration density of shade-tolerant tree species

Understanding coexistence of highly shade-tolerant tree species is a longstanding challenge for forest ecologists. A conceptual model for the coexistence of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and American beech (Fagus grandibfolia) has been proposed, based on a low-light survival/high-light growth trade-off, which interacts with soil fertility and small-scale spatiotemporal variation in the environment. In this study, we first tested whether the spatial distribution of seedlings and saplings can be predicted by the spatiotemporal variability of light availability and soil fertility, and second, the manner in which the process of environmental filtering changes with regeneration size. We evaluate the support for this hypothesis relative to the one for a neutral model, i.e., for seed rain density predicted from the distribution of adult trees. To do so, we performed intensive sampling over 86 quadrats (5 x 5 m) in a 0.24-ha plot in a mature maple-beech community in Quebec, Canada. Maple and beech abundance, soil characteristics, light availability, and growth history (used as a proxy for spatiotemporal variation in light availability) were finely measured to model variation in sapling composition across different size classes. Results indicate that the variables selected to model species distribution do effectively change with size, but not as predicted by the conceptual model. Our results show that variability in the environment is not sufficient to differentiate these species' distributions in space. Although species differ in their spatial distribution in the small size classes, they tend to correlate at the larger size class in which recruitment occurs. Overall, the results are not supportive of a model of coexistence based on small-scale variations in the environment. We propose that, at the scale of a local stand, the lack of fit of the model could result from the high similarity of species in the range of environmental conditions encountered, and we suggest that coexistence would be stable only at larger spatial scales at which variability in the environment is greater.     

The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.     

上海地区果树根癌病发生与土壤环境的关系

果树根癌病(致病菌为根癌土壤杆菌Agrobacterium tumefaciens)目前在上海地区大面积发生,严重危害桃(Amygdalus persicaL.)、梨(Pyrus bretschneideri Rehd.)、苹果(Malus pumila Mill.)等果树的生长。本文采用化学分析及微生物培养等方法,研究了上海地区桃树和梨树根癌病的发生与土壤因子(土壤含水量、pH值、有机质含量),土壤细菌以及与不同果树品种之间的关系。结果表明:土壤含水量、pH值、有机质含量、土壤中微生物的多样性和微生物总体数目与病害的发生没有显著的相关性,但是土壤中存在的个别菌种对病害的发生有显著的影响,初步分析显示Agrobacterium sp.和Bacillus sp.对根癌病的发生具有抑制作用,而Psuedomonas sp.对根癌病的发生可能具有一定的促进作用。同时不同果树品种的病害发生率之间有显著性的差异。