Road transport and urban air quality in China

１　ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔｈａｓｔａｋｅｎｔｈｅａｕｔｏｍｏｂｉｌｅｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｙａｓｏｎｅｏｆｉｔｓｐｉｌｌａｒｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉｅｓｏｆＣｈｉｎａ．Ｔｈｅｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｐｅｒｃｅｎｔａｇｅｏｆａｕｔｏｍｏｔｉｖｅｔｒａｎｓｐｏｒｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｐａｓｓｅｎｇｅｒｓｉｓ４５％,ｗｈｉｌｅｔｈａｔｏｆｃａｒｇｏｉｓａｐｐｒｏｘｉｍａｔｅｌｙ１５％．Ａｕｔｏｍｏｂｉｌｅｎｏｗｐｌａｙｓａｍｏｒｅｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｒｏｌｅｉｎｓｈｏｒｔｒａｎｇｅｔｒａｎｓ…     

Can a prolonged use of a passenger car reduce environmental burdens? Life Cycle analysis of Swiss passenger cars

As a consequence of the introduction of limits on exhaust gas emissions and a target agreement between the Swiss association of car importers (auto-schweiz) and the Swiss government calling for a reduction in the specific fuel consumption, a considerable reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered Swiss passenger cars occurred in the last 10 years. Also, for the near future an ongoing reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered vehicles is expected. However, applying the concept of life cycle thinking, exhaust emission reductions may be outbalanced with an increase in specific car manufacturing expenditures and/or a longer use of the car. Thus, from the point of view of an individual car owner, a prolonged car use may be the environmentally preferable option. In order to investigate this question, a comprehensive analysis of the environmental performance of newly registered diesel and petrol passenger cars in the time period from 2000 to 2010 has been performed. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been employed focusing on three transport components: ‘vehicle travel’ (exhaust and abrasion emissions), ‘fuel chain’ (supply of fuels) and ‘car infrastructure’ (manufacturing, maintenance and disposal of cars). The presented model aims to gain insight into the issue of longevity and prolonged car use for the Swiss case, rather than giving ultimate recommendations. The analysis focuses on classical road pollutants (NO_x and PM2.5) as well as on fuel consumption reduction and CO₂. Moreover, impact assessment has been applied, employing a common approach: Eco-Indicator (EI) 99. The ranking of different car replacement options revealed prolonged car use as the environmentally better option. As a consequence of the continuous use of the car representing 2000 average technology, the components ‘vehicle travel’ and ‘fuel chain’ show a 10% and 9% higher performance, respectively. This effect is compensated by savings in ‘car infrastructure’ (26%). Uncertainty analysis has been performed by additional model runs with different parameter settings. Despite the fact that a considerably prolonged car use scores best for all additional model runs, the resulting differences between options further decrease. This holds particularly true, if a higher yearly average fuel reduction rate of 3% is assumed. Furthermore, applying an avoided burden concept for infrastructure modeling (Value Corrected Substitution (VCS)) shows the same effect. In both cases the resulting scores differ merely marginally between the considered options and would not allow for discrimination.As a consequence of these outcomes, it is not possible to give any general recommendation to Swiss car owners to extend the use of their cars, in the short term.     

车内空气挥发性有机物污染水平调查

随着汽车量的增长,车内空气污染造成的纠纷越来越多。在此,通过对106辆汽车内部空气的分析测试表明,车内空气污染严重。其主要成分是甲醛、苯、甲苯、二甲苯、乙苯、苯乙烯等可挥发性有机物,其中甲苯和二甲苯为首要污染物。     

The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK: exploring the consumer attitude–action gap

This paper reports the initial findings of two research projects that identify attitudinal barriers inhibiting the adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK. The first, conducted for the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership by Ecolane Transport Consultancy, reviews the evidence of consumer attitudes to low carbon cars. The study shows that car buyers have a poor knowledge of cleaner car technologies, the environmental impacts of road transport and car ownership costs. The second study, initiated within the Open University's Design Innovation Group, identifies key ‘hotspot’ factors that influence consumers' adoption of low carbon products. The study, which is ongoing, has concluded that identifying where and when these hotspot points of leverage occur could help inform initiatives to facilitate consumer adoption and effective use.     

Urban CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions in Xi’an and Bangalore by commuters: implications for controlling urban transportation carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries

China and India together have more than one third of the world population and are two emerging economic giants of the developing world now experiencing rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. The urban transportation sector is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in China and India. The goal of this study is to analyze the characteristics and factors of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in Chinese and Indian cities and thus to identify strategies for reducing transportation CO₂ emissions and mitigating global climate change. Xi’an in China and Bangalore in India were chosen as two case study cities for their representativeness of major cities in China and India. The trends of CO₂ emissions produced by major traffic modes (electric motors, buses, and cars) in major cities of China and India were predicted and analyzed. The spatial distributions of CO₂ emissions produced by commuters in both cities were assessed using spatial analysis module in ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) software. Tobit models were then developed to investigate the impact factors of the emissions. The study has several findings. Firstly, in both cities, the increase of vehicle occupancy could reduce commuting CO₂ emissions by 20 to 50 % or conversely, if vehicle occupancy reduces, an increase by 33.33 to 66.67 %. It is estimated that, with the current increasing speed of CO₂ emissions in Xi’an, the total CO₂ emissions from electric motors, buses, and cars in major cities of China and India will be increased from 135?×?10⁶ t in 2012 to 961?×?10⁶ t in 2030, accounting for 0.37 to 2.67 % of the total global CO₂ emissions of 2013, which is significant for global climate change. Secondly, households and individuals in the outer areas of both cities produce higher emissions than those in the inner areas. Thirdly, the lower emissions in Xi’an are due to the higher density and more compact urban pattern, shorter commuting distances, higher transit shares, and more clean energy vehicles. The more dispersed and extensive urban sprawl and the prevalence of two-wheeler motorbikes (two-wheeler motorbike is abbreviated as “two-wheeler” in the following sections) fueled by gasoline cause higher emissions in Bangalore. Fourthly, car availability, higher household income, living outside the 2nd or Outer Ring Road, distance from the bus stop, and working in the foreign companies in Bangalore are significant and positive factors of commuting CO₂ emissions. Fifthly, “70-20” and “50-20” (this means that generally, 20 % of commuters and households produce 70 % of total emissions in Xi’an and 20 % of commuters and households produce 50 % of total emissions in Bangalore) emission patterns exist in Xi’an and Bangalore, respectively. Several strategies have been proposed to reduce urban CO₂ emissions produced by commuters and further to mitigate global climate change. Firstly, in the early stage of fast urbanization, enough monetary and land investment should be ensured to develop rail transit or rapid bus routes from outer areas to inner areas in the cities to avoid high dependency on cars, thus to implement the transit-oriented development (TOD), which is the key for Chinese and Indian cities to mitigate the impact on global climate change caused by CO₂ emissions. Secondly, in Bangalore, it is necessary to improve public transit service and increase the bus stop coverage combined with car demand controls along the ring roads, in the outer areas, and in the industry areas where Indian foreign companies and the governments are located. Thirdly, Indian should put more efforts to provide alternative cleaner transport modes while China should put more efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions from high emitters.     

考虑车辆类型变化的中国乘用车排放特征

通过引入Lotka-Volterra模型预测了中国未来30年的乘用车竞争趋势;通过引入CHG、VOC、CO、SO₂、PM_2.5、NO_x6类污染物更新了全生命周期清单;并据此建立了政策影响模型和敏感性模型评估电动化、轻量化和清洁化政策情景减排效果.结果表明,乘用车市场的主要竞争力来源于新能源与传统能源的竞争,且纯电动与混合动力乘用车呈S型曲线发展,汽油乘用车占比由92%减少到1%;全生命周期中,纯电动乘用车对CHG、VOC、CO减排效益最优,为20%~85%;汽油与天然气乘用车对SO₂和PM_2.5的减排效益最优,为50.0%;3类情景下税收补贴类政策敏感性最强,CHG、VOC和CO的最优减排情景为电气化情景,PM_2.5、NO_x的最优减排情景为清洁化情景,而SO₂的最优减排情景则为整车轻量化.     

Reducing energy consumption in road transport through hybrid vehicles: investigation of rebound effects,and possible effects of tax rebates

Hybrid powertrains are considered to be a promising method to raise the overall fuel efficiency of passenger cars. They are predicted to enter the automobile markets in increasing numbers in the near future. This paper investigates 2 aspects relevant to the promotion of hybrid vehicles as part of an energy reduction strategy. First, are hybrid cars accompanied by rebound effects, which counteract their increased fuel efficiency? Second, do tax rebates indeed lead to higher sales numbers? We present results from a survey conducted with all 367 buyers of hybrid second-generation Toyota Prius in Switzerland in the first 9 months after market entry (response rate, 82.6%). As control group, questionnaires were also sent to 250 Toyota Corolla (61% returned) and 250 Toyota Avensis (52%) buyers. Among other items, the surveys asked for the car being replaced, if any. Main results are that the increase in car size for hybrid car buyers was lower than both, the market trend and the control group. Increase in car size was lower for hybrid car buyers than for both control group and market trend. 6% of hybrid car purchases did not replace a previously owned vehicle (control group 3%, P = 0.05), the Swiss market average being 20%. Hence rebound effects could be identified neither for vehicle size nor for vehicle ownership. As an energy policy measure, hybrid vehicles are eligible for tax rebates in parts of Switzerland. We found evidence that these tax rebates indeed lead to significant higher sales. We present a rough cost estimate of such tax rebates as CO₂ abatement policy tool.     

基于LCA的新能源轿车节能减排效果分析与评价

新能源汽车在行驶过程中具有节能、环保等优点,在我国目前汽车保有量激增、能耗总量和温室气体排放量不断增大,城市交通对城市空气污染贡献日益增加的情况下,应用和推广新能源汽车被视为替代传统汽车、减缓环境危害的重要工具,但其生产阶段的能耗及污染问题同样不容忽视.因此,本研究运用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,选用美国阿贡国家实验室开发的GREET模型,对混合动力轿车、纯电动轿车、氢燃料电池轿车、E10乙醇汽油轿车4类新能源轿车在车辆制造、燃料及电力生产、行驶、拆解4个阶段的能耗及主要大气污染物排放进行了分析计算,并与传统汽油轿车进行比较.结果表明,同传统汽油轿车相比,4种新能源轿车的全生命周期能耗有不同程度的降低,其中,纯电动轿车在降低能耗方面最具优势.同时,4种新能源轿车全生命周期综合环境影响均低于传统汽油轿车,其中以氢燃料电池轿车的综合环境影响最小.     

中国分省道路交通二氧化碳排放因子

基于本地化的综合移动源排放模型（Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator,MOVES）模型模拟典型机动车的CO₂排放因子,并建立排放因子与速度变化关系的评估方程,结合各省路网平均速度与区域电网排放因子核算中国31个省份分车型的CO₂排放因子.同时,综合考虑载客汽车的载客量和客座率,载货汽车的载重量和载货率,建立各省单位客运,货运周转量的机动车CO₂排放因子库.结果表明,各类机动车的平均CO₂排放因子分别为：柴油公交车0.880kgCO₂/km,重型货车0.877kgCO₂/km,电动公交车0.676kgCO₂/km,中型货车0.508kgCO₂/km,轻型货车0.374kgCO₂/km,柴油小客车0.227kgCO₂/km,微型货车0.216kgCO₂/km,汽油小客车0.203kgCO₂/km,电动小客车0.108kgCO₂/km,摩托车0.062kgCO₂/km.车辆满载时,柴油公交车和电动公交车的人均CO₂排放量比汽油小客车分别降低了63%和73%,电动小客车的人均CO₂排放量较汽油和柴油小客车分别下降了46%和51%.较高的机动车保有量,频繁的道路拥堵导致上海,北京和重庆等市的机动车CO₂排放因子相对较高.倡导公共交通,提高客座率,降低私家车使用频率,推广纯电动汽车并通过减少道路拥堵以提高车速是降低道路交通CO₂排放量的有效途径.     

中国报废汽车中铂族金属回收潜力估算

基于Gompertz模型预测中国2018~2050年民用汽车的社会保有量;在此基础上,采用物质流分析方法估算得出我国汽车高峰报废年限大约为9a.然后,通过市场供给A模型预测我国2018~2025年汽车报废量,结果显示,我国汽车报废量到2025年将达到2535.05万辆,并且地理空间分布极不均衡.基于上述汽车报废量的时空分布,测算不同技术发展情景下废汽车三元催化剂中的铂族金属回收潜力和需求量.结果显示：如果按照当前催化剂消耗水平,全国铂族金属的需求量均在2019年达到峰值,铂钯铑分别达到4.57,65.70,7.92t,有望实现行业内闭环供应;如果以欧盟汽车尾气治理标准为目标,而现有汽车技术不发生根本变化,需求量将大幅增加,铂钯铑分别在2020年达到峰值85.01,109.38,8.37t,存在严重的供需矛盾.为此,建议在汽车生产者责任延伸制度中,关注废催化剂的回收和再生利用,以促进前端生产环节在不同技术选择中考虑稀贵金属的供给限制.     

中国报废汽车中铂族金属回收潜力估算

基于Gompertz模型预测中国2018~2050年民用汽车的社会保有量;在此基础上,采用物质流分析方法估算得出我国汽车高峰报废年限大约为9a.然后,通过市场供给A模型预测我国2018~2025年汽车报废量,结果显示,我国汽车报废量到2025年将达到2535.05万辆,并且地理空间分布极不均衡.基于上述汽车报废量的时空分布,测算不同技术发展情景下废汽车三元催化剂中的铂族金属回收潜力和需求量.结果显示：如果按照当前催化剂消耗水平,全国铂族金属的需求量均在2019年达到峰值,铂钯铑分别达到4.57,65.70,7.92t,有望实现行业内闭环供应;如果以欧盟汽车尾气治理标准为目标,而现有汽车技术不发生根本变化,需求量将大幅增加,铂钯铑分别在2020年达到峰值85.01,109.38,8.37t,存在严重的供需矛盾.为此,建议在汽车生产者责任延伸制度中,关注废催化剂的回收和再生利用,以促进前端生产环节在不同技术选择中考虑稀贵金属的供给限制.     

The prospects for global green car mobility

The quest for green car mobility faces two major challenges: air pollution from exhaust emissions and global climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. Vehicle air pollution emissions are being successfully tackled in many countries by technical solutions such as low-sulphur fuels, unleaded petrol and three-way catalytic converters. Many researchers advocate a similar approach for overcoming transport's climate change impacts. This study argues that finding a technical solution for this problem is not possible. Instead, the world will have to move to an alternative surface transport system involving far lower levels of motorised travel.     

Future private car stock in China: current growth pattern and effects of car sales restriction

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Car stock projection is essential to evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of private cars in China. Since the private car...     

In-vehicle VOCs composition of unconditioned, newly produced cars

The in-vehicle volatile organic compounds （VOCs） concentrations gains the attention of both car producers and users. In the present study, an attempt was made to determine if analysis of air samples collected from an unconditioned car cabin can be used as a quality control measure. The VOCs composition of in-vehicle air was analyzed by means of active sampling on Carbograph 1TD and Tenax TA sorbents, followed by thermal desorption and simultaneous analysis on flame ionization and mass detector （TD-GC/FID-MS）. Nine newly produced cars of the same brand and model were chosen for this study. Within these, four of the vehicles were equipped with identical interior materials and five others differed in terms of upholstery and the presence of a sunroof; one car was convertible. The sampling event took place outside of the car assembly plant and the cars tested left the assembly line no later than 24 hr before the sampling took place. More than 250 compounds were present in the samples collected; the identification of more than 160 was confirmed by comparative mass spectra analysis and 80 were confirmed by both comparison with single/multiple compounds standards and mass spectra analysis. In general, aliphatic hydrocarbons represented more than 60% of the total VOCs （TVOC） determined. Depending on the vehicle, the concentration of aromatic hydrocarbons varied from 12% to 27% of total VOCs. The very short period between car production and sampling of the in-vehicle air permits the assumption that the entire TVOC originates from off-gassing of interior materials. The results of this study expand the knowledge of in-vehicle pollution by presenting information about car cabin air quality immediately after car production.     

Analysis on the environmental problems accompanying the high-speed urbanization of small towns in China

The environmental problems accompanying the rapid urbanization of many small towns like Keqiao,Shaoxing County of China and their countermeasures are presented.To settle these problems rationally as well as effectively will not only conduce to boost the environmental quality and life quality of cities,but also help to promote the development of regional economy and the realization of sustainable development.     

长三角区域城市间一次污染跨界影响

长三角城市群作为我国三大经济圈之一,高强度的能源消耗致使区域大气污染问题十分突出.为了定量弄清城市之间一次污染传输情况,以长三角15个城市的污染排放清单、MM5气象场为基础,利用CALPUFF空气质量模型,模拟测算了长三角区域内城市间一次污染跨界输送影响.结果显示,环太湖地区的上海、苏州、无锡和常州等地由于自身排放强度...     

试述土壤污染对人类健康的侵害

农业生产中的污水灌溉、农药、化肥的使用、固体废弃物的堆弃及汽车尾气等等都对土壤造成了污染。土壤的污染真有隐蔽性、累积性、长期性和难治理性。土壤环境一旦遭受污染,将是人类的灾难。土壤污染带来的生物性传染病、重金属污染、残留农药污染等将对人体健康造成严重侵害,从源头控制污染势在必行。     

Tradable CO2 permits for cars and trucks

The accelerated diffusion of cleaner vehicles to reduce CO₂ emissions in transport can be explicitly integrated in emission trading designs by making use of cross-sectoral energy efficiency investment opportunities that are found in data on CO₂ emissions during the production and the use of cars and trucks. We therefore elaborate the introduction of tradable certificates that are allocated or grandfathered to manufacturers that provide vehicles (and other durable goods) that enable their customers to reduce their own CO₂ emissions. This certificate is an allowance for each tonne CO₂ avoided. Manufacturers can then sell these certificates on the emission market and use the revenues to lower the price of their cleanest vehicles. This mechanism should partially overcome the price difference with less efficient cars. In a simulation, we found that the introduction of the certificate in tradable permit systems can lead to very significant reductions of CO₂ emissions. The simulations indicate that CO₂ emissions resulting from the car fleet can be reduced by 25–38% over a period of 15 years (starting in 1999). For the truck fleet, the reduction potential is more limited but still very interesting.     

Environmental rebound effects of high-speed transport technologies: a case study of climate change rebound effects of a future underground maglev train system

The implementation of new high-speed transport technologies re-shapes the demand balance between transport modes and rebound effects may occur. In this paper first a definition of environmental rebound effects of high-speed transport is presented and various cases are discussed. Second, a method is developed to determine and quantify the environmental rebound effects employing life cycle assessment. The method is illustrated in a case study by investigating the greenhouse gas emissions of a frequently discussed future underground maglev train system for Switzerland.The environmental rebound effect expresses the size of environmental impact changes due to demand corrections in relation to the plain substitution effect. The latter expresses efficiency substitution effects due to the substitution of existing transport services with a high-speed transport service; i.e. passenger-kilometre performance remains constant in a world with and without the new transport service. Demand corrections are determined employing the notion of the constant travel time budget, assuming that if travel speed increases, the time saved will be exclusively used to travel more and further.In order to quantify the environmental rebound effect we determined the environmental efficiency – including operation, energy supply, vehicle supply and infrastructure supply – for all important transport services of the current passenger transport system as well as for the new transport technology. In addition, we generated and quantified a set of cornerstone scenarios to address possible changes in mobility patterns and technological options of passenger car transport at the time when the new high-speed transport technology would be in operation.The results show an increase of per capita environmental impact for all considered scenarios even without accounting for additional transport demand due to time saving effects. All scenarios show additional environmental impacts due to rebound effects on top of pure substitution effects.The case study demonstrates that taking into account demand changes, i.e. rebound effects is essential to evaluate emerging transport technologies. New technologies allowing for higher travel speed, even if energy-efficient on a passenger-kilometre basis, might lead to higher environmental impacts. This is ignored by the traditional approach of environmental transport assessment, which compares environmental efficiency of each transport mode separately. The presented approach allows to better understand the consequences of new transport services, and facilitates the assessment of future transport technologies on the level of the transport system as a whole.     

Eco economic construction and sustainable development of natural scenery cities in China

１　ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＣｈｉｎａｉｓｅｎｄｏｗｅｄｗｉｔｈｒｉｃｈｎａｔｕｒａｌｔｏｕｒｉｓｔｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓａｎｄｂｏａｓｔｓｏｆｎｕｍｅｒｏｕｓｎａｔｕｒａｌｓｃｅｎｉｃｓｐｏｔｓ．Ｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｌｏｎｇｔｉｍｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｓｃｅｎｉｃａｒｅａｓ，ｓｃｅｎｅｒｙｃｉｔｉｅｓｏｆｖａｒｉｏｕｓｓｉｚｅｓｈａｖｅｂｅｅｎｆｏｒｍｅｄ．Ａｂｏｕｔｏｎｅｆｏｕｒｔｈｏｆｔｈｅ３００ｃｉｔｉｅｓｕｎｄｅｒｐｒｏｖｉｎｃｉａｌｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔａｒｅｆａｍｏｕｓｆｏ…