中部六省低碳发展水平测度及发展潜力分析

人为的碳排放导致气候变化的加剧，低碳经济已成为人类的共识，向低能耗、低污染、低排放的低碳发展模式转型已成为世界各国可持续发展的必经之路。以我国中部六省作为研究区域，通过碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、地均碳排放量、碳生产率、碳能源排放系数等一系列指标对中部地区的低碳发展水平进行测度，对比各指标空间差异，认为中部地区目前还处于高碳发展阶段，碳排放总量大，碳生产率低，碳能源排放系数高，山西、河南尤为严重；在此基础上，采用产业 能源关联模型和能源 碳排放关联模型分析中部地区的低碳发展潜力，认为中部地区产业结构多元化水平和能源结构多元化水平低，且演化速率极其缓慢，致使碳排放增长速率无法减缓；中部地区虽然碳减排难度大，但减排潜力也大。〖     

低碳经济的发展模式研究

当前,全球正发生着以变暖为主要特征的气候变化,并已成为世界各国共同面临的危机和挑战。低碳经济是减少温室气体排放,应对全球变暖的最佳经济模式。本文从温室气体减排压力、能源安全和资源环境等三个方面分析了中国发展低碳经济的紧迫性。在对国内外低碳经济理论和实践综述的基础上，从宏观、中观和微观三个层次论证了低碳经济发展模式的发展方向、发展方式和发展方法。即以低碳发展为发展方向．以节能减排为发展方式。以碳中和技术为发展方法。最后提出了我国实施低碳经济发展模式的政策措施：①节能优先。提高能源利用效率；②化石能源低碳化。大力发展可再生能源；③设立碳基金．激励低碳技术的研究和开发；④确立国家碳交易机制。     

国际贸易、碳泄漏与制造业CO_2排放

中国经济高速增长的一个重要原因就是对外贸易的不断拉动,但在贸易规模不断扩大的同时,碳排放总量也在迅速增长。本文根据中国1996-2010年的分行业面板数据,测算了27个制造业的碳排放量,并根据碳排放强度将制造业分为低碳制造业和高碳制造业,对其碳排放趋势进行了分行业研究,在此基础上,利用FGLS回归方法验证制造业碳排放EKC的存在性并在模型中加入一些控制变量对结果进行检验,然后在回归方程中加入贸易和工业增加值的交互项考察碳泄漏问题。所得结论如下:整个制造业和低碳制造业无论是人均碳排放还是总的碳排放均符合EKC曲线,而高碳制造业却存在着线性关系;贸易减少了整个制造业和低碳制造业的碳排放,但却增加了高碳制造业的碳排放,总体来说贸易量的增加对于制造业人均碳排放量和总碳排量的影响是有利的;在碳泄漏问题上,制造业和低碳制造业不存在碳泄漏的问题,而高碳制造业则相反,但整体上"污染避难所"假说这一结论在我国不成立,对外贸易对中国制造业碳排放的总体影响是有利的,中国不需要因为减少CO2排放而去限制制造业的对外贸易。但是制造业未来仍将是中国经济增长的主要动力。因此,我国应制定有效的低碳政策,引进先进技术,并加大对低碳技术的研发投入,对原有的旧设备进行升级和改造,改变落后的生产方式。针对制造业中高碳制造业的高排放强度,我国应努力做大产业规模,提高能源的利用率和研发资金投入,加快技术进步,达到减排的效果。     

低碳省区试点政策的净碳减排效应北大核心CSCDCSSCI

低碳试点是实现中国绿色发展的一项重要政策,旨在探索和推广工业化与城镇化过程中低碳建设的做法及经验。客观评估低碳省区试点政策效果,有助于更好积累和推广省级层面的低碳建设经验,进而全面推进绿色化进程与生态文明建设。作者基于2000—2017年中国26个省区的面板数据,采用合成控制法从人均碳排放和碳强度两个方面,对辽宁、广东、陕西、湖北、云南和海南等6个“低碳省区”试点政策的净碳减排效应进行分析和评价,并通过安慰剂检验和双重差分(DID)估计对政策效应的稳健性进行验证和补充分析。研究发现:低碳省区试点政策下,辽宁和湖北的人均碳排放和碳强度均显著下降,即政策效应双有效;广东和云南的人均碳排放显著下降,而这两个省区的碳强度变动并非源于低碳试点政策;低碳省区试点对陕西和海南的碳减排均无效,相反,这两个省区的碳强度以及陕西的人均碳排放显著上升。分析认为,导致各省区净碳减排效应异质性的因素有以下四点:①工业占地区生产总值比重越低,越有利于人均碳排放控制;省区经济水平越高,即人均地区生产总值越高,越有利于碳强度控制。②碳排放权交易试点政策叠加有效促进碳减排。③政策实施前,省区人均碳排放和碳强度指标越低,其减排空间越小,减排难度越大。④经济发展和产业结构优化的惯性作用会长效推进碳减排。有鉴于此,提出以下建议:在省级层面合理布局低碳产业,特别是低能耗、低排放的第三产业,有效降低能源消费;推动人均碳排放和碳强度较高的省区率先减排;加大对经济欠发达省区的节能减排资金与技术支持;加快全国碳排放权交易市场的建设与完善,形成长效的低碳发展机制,实现生态绿色和经济增长和谐共赢。     

土地利用变化对碳排放的影响

大气中温室气体浓度增加是人类面临的严峻挑战.土地利用变化已成为仅次于化石能源燃烧的第二大温室气体排放源.本文在界定土地利用变化碳排放作用机制及内涵的基础上,从农用地向非农用地转换、农用地内部土地利用以及非农用地内部土地利用三个方面综述了土地利用变化对碳排放的影响.农用地向非农用地的转换会增加碳排放量.农用地内部土地利用变化方面,农田转换为森林或草地能够使土壤和植被碳储量增加,但是土壤碳汇集速率存在一定的差异;农田、森林和草地管理措施对生态系统碳循环的影响目前还存在争议,但基本观点是合理的管理措施能够减少碳排放置.非农用地内部土地利用变化方面,从能源消耗角度考虑,二产用地向三产用地转换会减少碳排放量.因此合理组织土地利用对帮助我国实现碳减排承诺,发展低碳经济有重要意义.     

国外低碳经济研究综述

低碳经济是发达国家为应对气候变化而提出的新的经济发展模式,它正成为一种新的国际潮流,影响着各国的经济社会发展进程。本文从低碳经济与经济增长、低碳经济实现的制度安排和不同国家的低碳经济进程三个方面,对国外相关文献进行梳理,分析认为:影响一国碳排放量的因素有人口、GDP、能源强度、碳强度及国际贸易等,且从长期来看,碳减排不会对经济增长造成负面影响;征收碳税和碳交易制度是目前实现低碳经济的主要制度安排;无论是发达国家还是发展中国家都在努力行动,实现经济发展模式向低碳经济转型。     

二氧化碳排放的国际比较及对我国低碳经济发展的启示

首先分析了我国二氧化碳排放的基本情况,指出当前二氧化碳排放增长率虽然有所下降,但环境形势依然严峻。然后从国家碳排放总量、人均CO2排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量、国家累积碳排放和人均累积碳排放几个方面对我国二氧化碳排放水平与国际水平进行了比较,并结合节能减排目标对我国低碳经济的发展提出了相关建议。     

碳交易背景下中国石化行业2020年碳减排目标情景分析

石化行业作为中国八大典型高碳排放产业之一,也是碳市场参与的重要行业.在国家2020年碳排放强度目标的约束下,客观评价其行业减碳的压力,对于政府部门科学制定各个行业碳排放配额的分配方案具有重要支撑作用.同时,亦对于通过低碳转型升级实现行业的可持续发展和支撑国家的工业减排目标具有理论和现实意义.本文针对石化行业9个子部门,结合我国经济发展的总体背景和趋势以及石化行业的相关数据,以2010年为基准情景,在2020年国家碳排放强度分别下降45％和50％的减排约束目标下,构建了一个动态CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS软件模拟分析,预测了到2020年国家和石化行业经济总量、能源消费结构和碳排放量及碳强度等的变化趋势.研究结果表明,相比基准情景,在45％、50％的碳强度减排目标下,国家和石化行业的经济增长、能源消费结构和碳排放强度等指标分别受到一定程度影响,其中,50％的减排目标对国家整体经济增速影响更为明显;对煤炭、石油这两种高碳能源的需求产生了较显著的约束效应;相比国家45％-50％的低碳发展目标,石化行业减碳承受压力达到60.63％至64.78％,面临着艰巨的减排任务与挑战.最后,文章结合低碳市场化背景提出了如下建议:科学预测典型离碳行业的减碳潜力,谨慎应对石化等行业企业参与碳市场交易过程中碳配额指标的制定与分配;充分利用技术创新和能源结构调整等战略,提高可再生能源的使用规模,促进能源消耗结构的优化和调整;构建石化行业节能低碳技术产学研协同创新体系,解决共性节能技术瓶颈;实施石化行业企业低碳发展战略,建设完善碳排放管理体系是行业节能减碳的重要手段.     

中国重点部门和行业碳排放总量控制目标及政策研究

中国控制温室气体排放从"十二五"时期的碳强度目标为主正在逐渐过渡到"十三五"碳强度、总量并举的时期,特别是在经济新常态下,中国的碳排放正在呈现出新的阶段性特征。"十三五"规划中已经提及推动优先开发区、重点领域和行业的碳排放率先达峰,《巴黎协定》的生效和国家自主贡献的实施也要求2020年后建立碳排放峰值和总量管理制度。本文基于自下而上的部门和行业综合评估模型(SIAM),对中国"十二五"时期工业、能源、建筑、交通等重点领域低碳发展和电力、钢铁、建材、化工等重点行业碳排放管理绩效进行评估,并以此为基础对重点部门和行业实施总量控制的目标及政策进行了研究,结果表明:三大重点部门的碳排放总和在2014年出现了一个短暂的峰值,但从对"十三五"期间的预测看,这一峰值是阶段性、不稳定的。工业部门能源消费和碳排放总体趋于稳定,直接排放已开始下降;建筑部门的能源消费和碳排放仍将持续增长,但伴随着终端电气化程度的提高,直接排放也呈现平缓趋势;交通部门的能源消费和碳排放仍将持续且快速增长。四大重点行业的碳排放总和也在2014年出现了一个短暂的峰值,且从对"十三五"期间的预测看,排放总量趋于稳定甚至下降。电力行业的发电量和碳排放增长的势头有所恢复,但总体与"十二五"期间的高点持平;随着需求下行和去产能的任务要求,钢铁和建材行业的能耗和碳排放出现缓慢下降,化工行业的能耗和碳排放有望出现峰值并缓慢下降。     

基于模糊聚类的中国分省碳排放初步研究

探索低碳发展的道路,既要注意到发展模式的普适性,也要考虑模式的适应性.在中国,从1980年开始CO2的排放总量就不断上涨.但是由于地区之间经济发展水平、生活水平以及环境状况之间存在很大差异,沿海与内陆、东中西部碳排放的驱动因素差异较大,因此在实施低碳发展时,必须考虑影响区域碳排放驱动因素的差异,从而有针对性地制定减排策略.本文从环境经济学角度出发,基于碳排放的驱动因素,利用Kaya模型研究分析例如影响中国碳排放的主要因素--人口、人均国民生产总值和单位国民生产总值碳排放量,并将此三项指标作为模糊聚类指标,将中国按碳排放驱动因素分为4大区域,并针对各区域提出实现低碳发展的相关政策建议.最后,本文对应用该方法将中国按照碳排放驱动因素进行区划的优点与不足做了进一步的讨论.     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Abstract

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations. For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations, many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights, and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity. In this paper, the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively, have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development, and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future, and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions, including historical emissions, development stage, and future demands. Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process. However, developing countries are still in the process of industrialization, which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs. For China, the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

中国碳排放态势与绿色经济展望

中国从2007年开始已成为世界温室气体排放第一大国,减排的国际压力越来越大。本文采用国际能源署公布的国别时间系列数据(1990-2007),系统分析了中国碳排放的现状、特点及历史变化;从经济发展、能源消费、经济全球化、社会转型等多方面解析了中国未来碳排放总量将会继续增长的基本态势。同时,从绿色技术、可再生能源的发展、生态城市建设等方面论述了中国未来必然成为世界绿色经济大国的可能性。最后,为了实现中国从排放大国走向绿色经济大国,提出了理论上需要深入研究的几个问题,即:碳排放速度与不同空间尺度问题,经济转型与反转型,碳排放的责任与国界。     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations.For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations,many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights,and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity.In this paper,the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively,have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development,and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future,and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions,including historical emissions,development stage,and future demands.Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process.However,developing countries are still in the process of industrialization,which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs.For China,the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

中国电力行业的全周期碳足迹

在碳达峰与碳中和目标下,国家层面与各省份均在积极推动碳减排。电力行业作为我国最大的排放部门成为减排重点之一,然而电力行业存在的隐含碳排放造成实际排放低估,省际间碳转移导致省级碳减排不公平问题突出。因此识别电力行业全周期碳足迹,尤其是不同省份的隐含碳足迹以及省际间的转移碳足迹特征,有助于正确评估电力行业碳排放,科学界定不同省份的碳减排责任并合理分配。通过构建电力行业全周期点-流模型以揭示电力产业链中存在的能源活动,进而明确基于用电侧考虑的2018年全周期碳足迹,并刻画碳隐含度与碳转移依赖度指标来分析电力行业的隐含碳排放与省间转移碳排放。研究表明:(1)我国电力行业全周期碳排放系数为689 g/(kW·h),排放量为4.747×10⁹t,其中北方大部分地区排放系数偏高,山东最高达891 g/(kW·h),南方地区偏低,云南最低仅101 g/(kW·h)。(2)全国电力行业全周期碳隐含度为8.95%,东南沿海贫煤省与煤炭生产高排放省的碳隐含度偏高,贵州最高达14.63%,西北、华北富煤省的碳隐含度偏低,新疆最低仅4.94%;全国隐含碳排放量为4.25×10⁸t,广东隐含碳排放量最高达5.0×10⁷t,青海最低仅1.17×10⁶t。(3)全国电力行业全周期碳转移量为9.26×10⁸t,约占排放总量的19.5%,电力与煤炭自给率越低的省区对外碳转移依赖度越高,其中北京最高达71.24%;内蒙古、山西、陕西、宁夏、安徽、新疆、贵州是主要碳转入省,总转入7.11×10⁸t,其中内蒙古最高达2.64×10⁸t;江苏、浙江、广东、山东、河北、北京、辽宁、河南、上海是主要碳转出省,总转出6.92×108t,其中江苏最高达1.12×10⁸t;全国共有240对省存在碳转移,其中有102对的转移量超过1.0×10⁶t。在研究基础上,提出相应建议推动省级电力行业公平合理低碳发展。     

Characteristics of Carbon Emission in China and Analysis on Its Cause

From the history of human economic development, it is known that there is a close relationship between economic development and environment quality. Thus, in this study a factor decomposition model of carbon emission in China is built and the contributions that economic scale, industrial structure, and carbon emission intensity make to carbon emission quantitatively from 1990 to 2005 are analyzed, in other words—scale effect, structural effect, and technical effect—using the decomposition method of average distribution cushion which is based on the environmental Kuznets curves model is studied. The result suggests that the average of the effect changes of carbon emission in China is 19.55%, the effects brought by economic scale, industrial structure, and carbon emission intensity are 15.76%, −0.86%, and 4.65%, respectively. In general, the relation between carbon emission and China's economy was more like an “N” curve; Economy scale is a primary drive factor and has incremental effect to carbon emission. Since otherness of different industry is getting bigger, the industrial restructure has certain decremental effect to carbon emission, but the restrictive function is not obvious, the industrial structure still need to be further optimized; the technical effect is positive and its volatility is large. From the perspective of reducing carbon emission, the current technology has not played to its advantages. This study will promote the understanding of the theory about the relationship between carbon emission and economy development and provide reference value by all means to the adjustment of industrial development.     

人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证

从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制.本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响.对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力.居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大.     

中国资源型城市CO_2排放比较研究

城市,特别是资源型城市,作为践行国家应对气候变化战略行动的重要主体,在绿色发展转型以及生态文明建设进程中正面临诸多现实挑战。资源型城市能否实现低碳发展转型,关乎我国在国际社会上承诺的中长期碳减排目标能否最终实现。为此,本研究基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据(CHRED),综合运用DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)、分类比较研究和情景分析等方法,对我国126个资源型城市的CO_2排放特征进行了系统分析,揭示了这些城市在能源结构和产业结构方面面临的诸多挑战,分析了这些城市未来碳排放趋势和碳减排潜力。研究结果显示:在正常达峰情景下,2030年126个资源型城市将以72.65亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的60%;在提前达峰情景下,资源型城市将在2025年以53.78亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的45%左右。最后,针对我国资源型城市的绿色低碳发展转型以及碳排放达峰管理提出几点建议:一是加强能源统计工作,促进资源型城市碳排放信息化管理平台建设;二是加强体制机制建设,健全资源型城市绿色低碳转型制度体系;三是改善以煤炭等化石燃料为主导的能源消费结构,提高清洁燃料利用的比重;四是加快绿色低碳技术发展,推动产业优化升级和碳排放强度明显下降。     

Industrial Carbon Emissions Status and Analysis Based on Energy Consumption

With frequent disastrous weathers and increasingly prominent GHG effects in recent years, normal existence and development of mankind are facing unprecedented threats and challenges. GHG emissions mitigation for the global climate changes has been the focus of concern of the world. As the biggest developing country and the second largest country of carbon-emission, China attaches importance to the carbon emission reduction. The major GHG component is carbon dioxide and in China, the emission of carbon dioxide is mainly from industrial production. In the paper, the status and trend of Co2 emission from industrial departments, high-carbon emission and its specific industries are shown in statistics. Meanwhile, the policy environment, industrial organization structure and technology of carbon high emission are all discussed based on practical situations in these departments and industries. At the end, through the analysis of gray correlation, correlativity is explored for both fossil energy consumption and total carbon emission, and also for the production value and carbon emission of each industrial sector. Some policy proposals for the establishment of low-carbon industries and transition of economic development pattern are set forth.