可持续旅游及其区域实现途径探讨 ——以井冈山风景名胜区为例

可持续旅游是80年代中期以后提出的关于旅游业发展的新思想,经过十多年的不断拓展深化,已经得到世界各国的广泛认同,并作为跨世纪旅游业发展的战略指导思想。从可持续旅游的由来和对可持续旅游内涵实质的界定角度出发,结合可持续旅游实现途径的探讨,以井冈山风景名胜区为例,对风景区旅游业可持续发展进行了深入的探讨,为景区的发展规划提出了战略性构想,以期能对井冈山风景名胜区旅游资源的可持续利用和旅游业的可持续发展起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

基于推拉理论的“农二代”耕作意愿研究——以河南省为例

"农二代"耕作意愿关系到农业经营主体的发展、新型职业农民的培养和国家粮食安全。基于河南省597份问卷调查数据,运用推拉理论并采用二元Logistic回归分析模型,探索了"农二代"分别在近期和远期的耕作意愿及其影响因素。结果表明:与近期相比,"农二代"的耕作意愿在远期将会下降。"农二代"耕作意愿在近期和远期的影响因素有同有异。种地经历、家庭类型和农村生活压力等对"农二代"近期、远期的耕作意愿均影响显著且方向相同;种地技能要求、日常家庭开支对近期、远期的耕作意愿均有影响,但前后方向相反。而有些因素仅对"农二代"近期耕作意愿或远期耕作意愿单方面有影响。农户特征和农村推力等方面的因素在"农二代"近远期耕作意愿中均发挥重要作用。农村拉力在近期耕作意愿中作用明显,而城镇拉力在远期耕作意愿中影响显著。最后,根据"农二代"的耕作意愿影响因素,提出了具体的政策建议以期为地方政府制定相关政策提供支撑。     

基于协调发展视角的区域发展差异研究——以江苏省为例

20世纪90年代以来,区域差异研究成为学术界和政府管理者关注的热点领域.长期以来学者们主要以单一经济指标或复合经济指标作为衡量因子,分析区域经济差异时空演变及差异背后的自然、社会、经济驱动机理.从可持续发展的角度看,区域发展不单是区域经济的发展,而应是社会、经济与资源环境三方面的协调.基于这一理解,从可持续协调发展人手,建立了区域发展综合评价指标体系,选取了表征社会进步、经济发展和资源环境支持3个方面的27个因素作为评价指标,分析了区域综合发展的测算方法,提出了综合发展指数和发展协调指数.在案例分析中运用所设计的测度方法对江苏省内县级行政单位的综合发展进行了评价和分析.     

西北地区能源-环境-经济可持续发展预警研究——以陕西省为例

能源、环境与经济是人类社会生存与发展的物质基础,能源经济发展在带来区域经济快速繁荣的同时,往往造成当地社会生活质量的下降和生态环境的破坏。陕西作为我国21世纪重要的能源接续地,在能源开发利用的同时也受到脆弱生态环境的约束,本文以此为例进行可持续发展预警实证研究具有一定的代表性和现实意义。通过设计能源-环境-经济可持续发展预警指标体系,构建出可持续发展预警模型,采用人工神经网络预警方法和层次分析法,编写出计算运行程序,运用Matlab7.1软件中人工神经网络工具箱,将有关数据信息和预警模型有机结合,探讨能源-环境-经济可持续发展理论构建与应用问题。研究结果表明:陕西能源-环境-经济的可持续发展趋势在2000-2014年间分别处于重警、中警、轻警和无警四种状态,基本符合陕西能源产业发展现状;所设计的预警指标能较好地反映出能源-环境-经济可持续发展的特征;基于BP人工神经网络的预警方法具有较强的仿真能力,能提高可持续发展预警的准确性,在能源产业可持续发展预警研究中具有一定的应用价值。     

区域旅游经济与空气质量耦合协调的时空演化——以云南省为例

该研究在构建旅游经济和空气质量综合评价指标体系的基础上,利用熵值赋权法和耦合协调度模型来分析云南省16个州市2014—2020年旅游经济系统和空气质量系统的耦合协调关系及时空演化过程。研究发现：(1)研究期内16个州市的旅游经济发展整体呈现增长趋势,但各州市的旅游经济发展指数差异较大,呈现“两极分化”的发展格局;空气质量发展指数随时间变化的波动性很强、呈无序状态。(2)研究前期和中期,除了昆明、丽江、大理的旅游经济发展指数始终高于空气质量指数,其余13个州市空气质量指数均优于旅游经济发展指数,属于旅游经济发展滞后型城市。(3)从耦合协调等级来看,云南省旅游经济与空气质量耦合协调等级得到提高,总体趋势呈现由滇西北地区向滇中、滇西和滇西南地区递减的格局。其中,耦合协调等级比较好的州主要集中在滇西北地区,且耦合协调等级远高于滇东北、滇东南地区。(4)从空间自相关来看,云南省旅游经济与空气质量耦合协调发展水平整体上表现出全局空间负相关,且空间分布呈随机态势,尚未形成地理上的空间集聚效应。研究期内16个州市旅游经济与空气质量耦合协调度协同增长的有3个,负向增长的有13个,说明16个州市的内部空间...     

区域经济－旅游－生态环境耦合协调度研究——以安徽省为例

在阐述区域经济、旅游业与生态环境相互协调发展的作用机理的基础上,建立了区域经济 旅游 生态环境耦合协调度指标体系,并引入耦合协调度数学模型及计算方法,以安徽省为例,对安徽省1990～2008年经济 旅游 生态环境耦合协调度进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,安徽省经济 旅游 生态环境耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,但仍属于中等水平的勉强协调类型。近年来三者的耦合协调关系处于颉颃状态,生态环境已经成为制约耦合协调度进一步提高的瓶颈。     

可持续旅游及其区域实现途径探讨—以井冈山风景名胜区为例

可持续旅游是 80年代中期以后提出的关于旅游业发展的新思想。经过十多年的不断拓展深化 ,已经得到世界各国的广泛认同 ,并作为跨世纪旅游业发展的战略指导思想。本文从可持续旅游的由来和对可持续旅游内涵实质的界定角度出发 ,结合可持续旅游实现途径的探讨 ,以井冈山风景名胜区为例 ,对风景区旅游业可持续发展进行了深入的探讨 ,为景区的发展规划提出了战略性构想 ,以期能对井冈山风景名胜区旅游资源的可持续利用和旅游业的可持续发展起到抛砖引玉的作用     

海岛旅游绿色发展生态补偿标准研究——以浙江舟山普陀旅游金三角为例

绿色发展是强调人与自然平等、人与自然和谐发展的新可持续发展观。海岛旅游绿色发展有利于保护旅游目的地的海洋生态系统与森林生态系统健康和减少旅游业对资源与环境的压力。运用海洋渔业生态标签制度(MFELS)、生态系统服务付费(PES)和市场替换法(MRM),对海岛旅游绿色发展生态补偿问题进行了研究,其中,旅游碳排放增量生态补偿(增汇或碳汇)主要依据是污染者付费原则、环境友好型海产品生态补偿主要依据是保护者得到补偿原则、生态系统服务付费主要依据是受益者付费原则;并以舟山普陀旅游金三角为案例地,以问卷调查和访谈调查获取的数据为基础,以2013年为评价基准年份,对海岛旅游绿色发展的生态补偿标准进行了评估。结果表明:海岛旅游绿色发展可获得6.53×108元的生态补偿资金,游客平均承担110.43元/人次的生态补偿标准。     

基于加权TOPSIS法的旅游资源区际竞争力比较研究——以长江三角洲为例

旅游资源是旅游活动的客体,是旅游业赖以生存和发展的物质基础和前提条件。现有旅游资源区际竞争力的比较研究中,主要采用指数法、位序得分法和专家打分排序,主观因素影响过大。TOPSIS法是一种多属性决策方法,基本原理是通过构造决策问题中的各指标最优解和最劣解,计算比较对象贴近最优解和远离最劣解的程度,给出比较对象的优劣排序,作为决策判据,此方法可减少人为因素的干扰,提高评价结果的可靠性和可信度。首先阐述加权TOPSIS法,其次依据旅游资源的属性,构建旅游资源区际竞争力比较指标体系,在此基础上以长江三角洲16个城市为例,进行旅游资源区际竞争力实证研究。结果表明,地区间旅游资源存在较大的差异,苏州、杭州的旅游资源竞争实力最强,泰州、南通实力最弱。     

Research on Urban Tourism Image Positioning： A Case Study of Dengfeng in Henan Province

Aiming at facilitating the research of urban tourism im- age positioning, this paper summarizes the domestic and abroad theories on urban tourism image and analyzes its significance for cities. With De...     

Study on the Comprehensive Tourism Development Pattern in Periphery Minority Area： A Case Study of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province, China

The paper took the human-land relations as a basic point, and the theories of tourism industry system and sustainable development as the guidance, with Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture （Gannan） as the case study area. From microcosmic and macroscopic viewpoints, the author carded out function orientation and evaluation to the tourism industry development, and research on the comprehensive tourism industry development pattern of Gannan. Results show that the fragile ecological environment and the traditional economic growth pattern have restricted regional sustainable development, and made Gannan to become a representative of the periphery minority areas in Northwest China. Tourism development of Gannan is at the primary phase, with the characteristics of short industry chain and low economic efficiency. It is an inevitable choice to transform the way of regional economic growth and the development pattern of tourism industry from the traditional pattern to the pattern of sustainable development. Simultaneously, Gannan＇s natural, national and religious culture makes Gannan a broad prospect on the comprehensive tourism development. Gannan should choose the comprehensive tourism industry as its scientific pattern to realize sustainable development, promote harmonious social, economic and ecological development, alleviate the human-land contradictory, and realize dual goals in terms of ecology construction and economical development. For Gannan and the similar areas in China, studies on the sustainable development pattern of tourism have extremely important strategic sense with respect to tourism development and the sustainable development of regional economy.     

Study on the Comprehensive Tourism Development Pattern in Periphery Minority Area: A Case Study of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province,China

Abstract

The paper took the human-land relations as a basic point, and the theories of tourism industry system and sustainable development as the guidance, with Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (Gannan) as the case study area. From microcosmic and macroscopic viewpoints, the author carried out function orientation and evaluation to the tourism industry development, and research on the comprehensive tourism industry development pattern of Gannan. Results show that the fragile ecological environment and the traditional economic growth pattern have restricted regional sustainable development, and made Gannan to become a representative of the periphery minority areas in Northwest China. Tourism development of Gannan is at the primary phase, with the characteristics of short industry chain and low economic efficiency. It is an inevitable choice to transform the way of regional economic growth and the development pattern of tourism industry from the traditional pattern to the pattern of sustainable development. Simultaneously, Gannan's natural, national and religious culture makes Gannan a broad prospect on the comprehensive tourism development. Gannan should choose the comprehensive tourism industry as its scientific pattern to realize sustainable development, promote harmonious social, economic and ecological development, alleviate the human-land contradictory, and realize dual goals in terms of ecology construction and economical development. For Gannan and the similar areas in China, studies on the sustainable development pattern of tourism have extremely important strategic sense with respect to tourism development and the sustainable development of regional economy.     

基于三螺旋模型的国家粮食安全保障战略——以河南省为例

建立三螺旋粮食安全模型,对促进主产区粮食生产和保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。结合粮食生产情况,利用统计数据,对粮食生产过程中的突出问题、时序动态和空间变化进行分析。随着粮食产量的增长,区域发展和农民收入差距拉大,土地高产出(粮食单产)与资源低效率并存,粮食生产成本的增加与粮食价格不能同步提高,出现粮食主产区财政收入和农民纯收入的"双低"现象,成为影响粮食安全的障碍因素。在此基础上,建立了粮食安全三螺旋模型,提出了保障国家粮食安全的政策建议。即在保障途径上,要实现中央政府、地方政府和农民农户目标的协调耦合;在策略行为上,粮食安全利益相关者之间的行为适度,利益均衡,互让互动,共生共长。充分发挥中央政府主导性、地方政府主动性和农民农户主体性,促进粮食综合生产能力提高、粮食产业能力提速和农民发展能力提升的良性循环,探索一条粮食产量与农民收入同步提高、主产区与主销区利益协调和不以牺牲粮食主产区生态和环境为代价的粮食生产持续稳定和谐发展之路。     

Comprehensive Assessment of Regional Circular Economy Development Based on Efficiency of Resource & Environment:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

In the first, the paper gave a retrospective analysis on the comprehensive assessment of circular economic development. According to the requirement of improving resource & environment efficiency, the paper designed an analytical framework for a comprehensive assessment of regional circular economic growth, which consists of the goal, object and technical line of the comprehensive assessment of regional circular economic development. Given that, the paper discussed the criterion for choosing the assessment index, the approaches of index's weighing determination, the means of data standardization, and the reference system of assessment index value and so on. According to the framework of regional circular economic development evaluation,the paper made a comprehensive evaluation of Jiangsu Province's circular economic development. The result shows that from temporal change, Jiangsu Province's circular economic development had different stages;from the spatial comparison, there is variance among different regions, which could be divided into different types according to the spatial variance and the relation between the development of circular economy and the aggregative index number. There was a remarkable correlation between circular economic development level and GDP or the 2nd industry GDP. Finally, the paper gives some suggestions on how to promote the development of circular economy in Jiangsu Province.     

Comprehensive Assessment of Regional Circular Economy Development Based on Efficiency of Resource ＆ Environment A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

In the first, the paper gave a retrospective analysis on the comprehensive assessment of circular economic development. According to the requirement of improving resource ＆ environment efficiency, the paper designed an analytical framework for a comprehensive assessment of regional circular economic growth, which consists of the goal, object and technical line of the comprehensive assessment of regional circular economic development. Given that, the paper discussed the criterion for choosing the assessment index, the approaches of index＇s weighing determination, the means of data standardization, and the reference system of assessment index value and so on. According to the framework of regional circular economic development evaluation, the paper made a comprehensive evaluation of Jiangsu Province＇s circular economic development. The result shows that from temporal change, Jiangsu Province＇s circular economic development had different stages; from the spatial comparison, there is variance among different regions, which could be divided into different types according to the spatial variance and the relation between the development of circular economy and the aggregative index number. There was a remarkable correlation between circular economic development level and GDP or the 2nd industry GDP. Finally, the ？aper gives some suggestions on how to promote the development of drcular economy in Jiangsu Province.     

扬州市土地利用变化的驱动力机制研究

基于扬州市1996—2004各年份土地利用数据及相关统计资料。分析了8年中土地变化的特点及主要驱动力因子，结果表明：①8年来全市主要土地利用类型的变化表现出耕地、园地的面积大幅下降，建设用地的面积普遍增长；②选择11项指标构建土地利用变化驱动力模型，采用“主成分分析法”及SPSS13．0统计软件。分析得出：影响该市土地利用变化的主要驱动力因子是人口和经济的增长；③运用Eviews 3．1软件对土地利用变化中经济因素的驱动作用做回归分析得出：全市GDP每增长1亿元，需要新增建设用地约15．36hm^2．减少耕地约17．53hm^2；城镇化水平每增加1个百分点．需要减少耕地面积389．3hm^2，同时扩展城镇用地266．17hm^2。     

基于PP-DEA模型的区域城镇化发展差异的综合评价

区域城镇化发展存在差异是客观现象,对这种差异进行科学、理性的评价是城镇化研究的核心内容之一。以安徽省区域城镇化发展差异为研究对象,以基于遗传算法的投影寻踪模型和数据包络分析模型为基础,从静态的发展水平和动态的发展效率两个方面对安徽省区域城镇化发展差异进行了综合评价,并通过构造综合差异指数把安徽省划分成4类城镇化发展水平区,包括高水平区、较高水平区、中水平区和低水平区,为此指出安徽省城镇化发展既要注重提高城镇化发展在资源投入、利用上的效率,又要坚持走提高发展质量和技术含量的内涵型发展之路。研究结果表明:基于PP-DEA模型的研究方法可有效克服传统的基于多元统计方法的综合评价技术的不足,能够更科学、更全面地反映区域城镇化发展的差异情况,其能对区域城镇化发展差异研究提供一定的参考价值。     

珠江上游少数民族农业区域生态安全预警研究--贵州境内22县实证分析

区域生态安全是区域经济社会可持续发展的基础。珠江上游少数民族农业区域的生态安全形势严峻，其生态安全不仅事关本区域的经济社会可持续发展。而且影响珠江中下游地区（尤其是珠江三角洲地区）的经济社会可持续发展.本文以科学发展观为指导,建立珠江上游少数民族农业区域生态安全预警指标体系。并通过对贵州境内22县的样本分析,横向比较,作出珠江上游生态少数民族农业区域生态安全预警。