Climate change impact on countrywide water balance in Bolivia

There is increasing concern about the ongoing reduction in water supplies in the tropical Andes due to climate change effects such as glacier/snow melting resulting from rising air temperatures. In addition, extreme events and population growth are already directly affecting life and water renewability in the country. A countrywide integrated national plan for improving basin-scale water management in Bolivia is needed to assure water availability for agriculture, industry, mining, and human consumption. This study aims to provide a modeling tool to assess Bolivia’s past, current, and future water availability and identify basins at risk of water deficits. The Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to simulate the monthly water balance from 1997 to 2008, as well as the water balance projected to 2050 for the entire country. It considers possible changes in air temperatures and precipitation proposed by 17 Global Circulation Models as well as carbon dioxide projections derived from the Special Report Emission Scenario. Overall, model results were close to satisfactory compared to observations, with some exceptions due to lack of information for expanding the timeline and improving calibration. Based on the calculation of three hydrologic indicators, the study identifies basins that would be the most susceptible to water deficits for a baseline from 1997 to 2008, and in the event of the projected climate change, to 2050.     

Climate change in Algeria and its impact on durum wheat

According to IPCC reports, the Mediterranean basin and particularly the North African area are amongst the most vulnerable regions to climate change. However, the information concerning the North African zone is very limited, and studies on climate change have never been conducted in Algeria up to now. This paper aims at bridging this information gap and initiates a first research on the impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping, the most strategic commodity in the food system and in the national economy of Algeria. Climate projections for the distant future (2071–2100), obtained from the ARPEGE-Climate model of Météo-France run under the medium A1B SRES scenario, are introduced into a simple agrometeorological crop model previously validated with field data. Two options for the sowing date are assessed: a dynamical date, chosen within the traditional sowing window by means of a rainfall criterion, or a prescribed date with supplemental irrigation on the same day. Crop development is modelled using thermal time, and maximum yield is determined from the accumulation of solar radiation. A water stress index is inferred from a daily water balance model, and actual yield is estimated from potential yield corrected by the water stress index. The model also takes into account the occurrence of dry periods during the growing season, which can induce partial or total failure of the crop cycle. Two stations, representative of two of the three agroclimatic areas where durum wheat is grown, were chosen: Algiers in the central northern region and Bordj Bou Arreridj in the eastern high plains. Climate change is not similar for both areas, but a tendency towards aridity is clear especially in spring. Future temperature and potential evapotranspiration increase in both regions with a maximum in spring and summer. In Algiers, rainfall will decrease throughout the year and mainly in spring and summer. Conversely, summer precipitation in Bordj Bou Arreridj will increase significantly. In both regions, the autumn rains will increase in the future climate, the possibilities of early sowing will be improved, crop cycle will be reduced, and harvest will take place earlier. In Algiers, yields tend to decrease in the future climate, whereas in Bordj Bou Arreridj, a dynamical (earlier) sowing will tend to keep yields at their current level.     

Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers

Climate change can be particularly hard-hitting for small underdeveloped countries, relying heavily on natural resources for the economy and livelihoods. Nepal is one among these countries, being landlocked, with diverse physiographical characteristics within a relatively small territory and with rugged terrain. Poverty is widespread and the capacity of people and the country to cope with climate change impact is low. The country is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The main occupation is agriculture, largely based on rain-fed farming practices. Tourism based on high altitude adventures is one of the major sources of income for the country. Nepal has a large hydropower potential. While only 0.75% of the theoretical hydropower potential has been tapped, Nepal can greatly benefit from this natural resource in the future. Climate change can adversely impact upon water resources and other sectors of Nepal. The source of water is mainly summer monsoon precipitation and the melting of the large reserve of snow and glaciers in the Himalayan highlands. Observations show clear evidences of significant warming. The average trend in the country is 0.06°C per year. The warming rates are progressively higher for high elevation locations. The warming climate has resulted in rapid shrinking of majority of glaciers in Nepal. This paper presents state-of-knowledge on the glacial dynamics in the country based on studies conducted in the past in Shorong, Khumbu, Langtang, Dhaulagiri and Kanchenjunga regions of Nepal. We present recent trends in river flow and an overview of studies on expected changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change. Formation, growth and likely outburst of glacial lake are phenomena directly related to climate change and deglaciation. This paper provides a synopsis of past glacial lake outburst floods impacting Nepal. Further, likely impacts of climate change on other sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, human health and livelihoods are discussed.     

Assessment of the hunting of mammals using local ecological knowledge: an example from the Brazilian semiarid region

The hunting of wild animals remains a common activity in various parts of the world, especially in rural communities with poor socioeconomic conditions. To investigate patterns of mammal hunting, this study adopted a rural community located in semiarid Brazil as a model to test whether variables such as perceived abundance, activity period (day or night) and animal biomass could influence the consumption potential of mammal taxa. For this study, a checklist/interview technique using 32 photographs of mammals recorded in the region and two photographs of species that did not occur in the region, which acted as “control” species, was used, in addition to other visual stimuli and free lists. All species presented in the photographs, with the exception of the “control” species, were recognized as occurring in the region. Fourteen species were cited as being those most hunted locally. The species cited as most hunted had an average perceived abundance higher than the group of the least-hunted species. However, there was no significant relationship between hunting of a species and its locally perceived abundance. No significant difference in hunting pressure between diurnal and nocturnal species was found, nor was a relationship between animal biomass and hunting pressure observed. Our findings suggest that perceived abundance is an important factor for choosing a resource fauna, but other factors such as intended use, meat flavor and vulnerability to hunting, among others, may influence the potential use of a species.     

Healing with animals in a semiarid northeastern area of Brazil

This study presents information on the use of medicinal animals in a semiarid area of northeast Brazil, a region where animals have recognized importance in local popular medicine. The information on the use of animals for medicinal purposes was obtained through semi-structured questionnaires, complemented by free interviews and informal conversations. The results obtained showed that the residents of the area studied utilize a considerable richness of animal species (n = 42) for medicinal purposes, as occurs in other areas of Brazil’s semiarid region, demonstrating that zootherapy represents an alternative form of health care that is important to the inhabitants of the region. There is a need for new investigations on medicinal fauna, aimed at promoting the sustainable use of eventual medicinal species and preserving popular knowledge associated with the use of animal species.     

The impact of warming on the appearance of furunculosis in fish of the James Bay region,Quebec, Canada

A regional climate change impact assessment was conducted which investigated the timing of the first appearance of furunculosis caused by the bacterium, Aeromonas salmonicida, in fish of the Ouje-Bougoumou region of northern Quebec, Canada. Historical data were used to assess whether there was a temporal relationship between increased temperatures (observed climate data) and the appearance of furunculosis (traditional environmental knowledge was used to provide context). To project future impacts of climate change, climate models and lake models were used. Regression analysis revealed a significant, positive temporal trend in mean air temperature. The temperature range conducive to A. salmoncida survival coincided with the first appearance of furunculosis. In addition, it is predicted that lake temperatures will remain suitable for the presence of A. salmonicida into the future; it is likely that the disease will persist throughout the twenty-first century. Climate change appears to be a factor explaining the onset of furunculosis; however, other factors/stressors cannot be discounted, such as, the effects past mining activities near the lakes of the Ouje-Bougoumou region have had on the body burden of contaminants in the fish (and the potential effects on the fish immune system).     

Climate and human impact on lowland lake sedimentation in Central Coastal California: the record from c. 650 ad to the present

The limnological record of human impact on catchment land cover and on lake sedimentation during the historical period has been established for Pinto Lake in Central Coastal California. In addition, the sedimentary record of the ‘pre-impact’ condition preserves evidence of a climatic control on the nature of lake sedimentation. Chronological marker horizons have been determined using pollen data in combination with the documented land-use history and introductions of exotic species. Further chronological data have been determined using ¹⁴C and ¹³⁷Cs. The impact of Mexican and Euro-American immigrants and their ‘imported’ land-use practices is clearly reflected in an order of magnitude increase in the rate of lake sedimentation to c. 9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ (c. 2 cm year⁻¹) between 1770 and 1850. Here, the occurrence of exotic plant species indicates disturbance as early as c. 1769–1797, whilst redwood deforestation between 1844 and 1860 represents the most significant human impact. Changes in the nature of sedimentation prior to this reveal a high degree of sensitivity to changes in precipitation where subtle decreases in lake level and the supply of runoff-derived mineral matter have resulted in two periods of organic lake sedimentation c. 650–900 and 1275–1750. Set against this background condition of high sensitivity, the dramatic impacts of Euro-American settlement are unsurprising. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Multi-scale land cover dynamics of semiarid scrubland in Baja California,Mexico

Land use and cover changes trigger multi-factorial responses with tangible and intangible effects. Driving forces governing changes are scale-, place- and time-dependent; because of their complexity, a multi-scalar analysis is required to determine conjoint causation. Studies using multi-scalar approach in semiarid scrubland ecosystems are scanty. This paper investigates land use changes on the largest semiarid scrubland ecosystem of Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, using a multi-scalar analysis approach. It further provides insight into the likely underlying causes for land use trends. Multi-temporal databases were compiled for 1978, 1990, 2000 and 2003 from various sources; population was projected for the same years. Land cover processes were validated through intensive fieldwork. Map overlapping with the aid of geographic information systems allowed computation of land cover transformation rates. New algorithms were developed to better understand land cover trends. Multi-variate analysis was also performed to provide a synthetic statistical overview. Results showed that land cover change occurred at different times, at variable scales, due to distinct drivers. As a consequence, the current regional scenario has been shaped by distinguishable socio-economic changes. The semiarid scrubland ecosystems in the Baja California Peninsula experienced contrasting trends detectable only at site and local scales. Regionally, the replacement of original vegetation (scrubland) for other land cover category is following trends similar to those in the rest of Mexico and most semiarid ecosystems worldwide. These findings support the hypothesis that land use and cover changes must be analyzed at different times and scales to deeply understand underlying forces.     

Cognition Research on Global Climate Change

Researchers are looking for an effective solution to mitigate climate change along with the growth of global average temperature and the frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters. However, after the ratification of Kyoto Protocol, which is the international agreement dedicated to solve the problem, climate change is getting more serious in the recent decade. It is considered that the ultimate reason is not from the limitation of current technology or policy instrument but from the cognition part, which is the basis guiding people to comprehend problems and search for solutions. Until now, the research on the climate change issue is consistently based on a deficient assumption that climate change is a kind of “the tragedy of the commons.” This phenomenon could be considered as the “Pluto phenomenon” and directly cause the inefficiency of current solution. Therefore, the cognition's reconstruction is vital to guide researchers and relevant stakeholders to search for an efficient approach to mitigate climate change.     

对目前全球气候变化问题认知程度的思考

随着全球增温以及各种异常气候灾害的频繁发生。人们越加关注对全球气候变化问题的研究,并一直努力寻找解决该问题的最有效的方案。然而自《京都议定书》这份唯一的国际范围签署的旨在减缓温室气体的协议制定以来的10年时间。气候变化问题有增无减。没有得到实质改善。这不仅是科技水平和政策手段上的局限所至,更为根本的原因是现有对全球气候变化问题的认知仍存在缺陷。全球气候变化长期被默认为“公地悲剧”的现象是一种典型的“冥王星现象”。这种认知上的缺陷导致了当前缓解全球气候变化的方法难以行之有效。要找到缓解全球气候变化的有效途径,完善人们对全球气候变化问题的认知是重要的前提条件。     

Climate variability and macroeconomic output in Ethiopia: the analysis of nexus and impact via asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag cointegration method

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Ethiopia showed a rapid, yet, a none resilient economic growth much threatened by climate variability. In Ethiopia, the adverse effects of climate...     

Short-term seasonal variability in Be wet deposition in a semiarid ecosystem of central Argentina

The ⁷Be wet deposition has been intensively investigated in a semiarid region at San Luis Province, Argentina. From November 2006 to May 2008, the ⁷Be content in rainwater was determined in 58 individual rain events, randomly comprising more than 50% of all individual precipitations at the sampling period. ⁷Be activity concentration in rainwater ranged from 0.7 ± 0.3 Bq l⁻¹ to 3.2 ± 0.7 Bq l⁻¹, with a mean value of 1.7 Bq l⁻¹ (sd = 0.53 Bq l⁻¹). No relationship was found between ⁷Be content in rainwater and (a) rainfall amount, (b) precipitation intensity and (c) elapsed time between events. ⁷Be ground deposition was found to be well correlated with rainfall amount (R = 0.92). For the precipitation events considered, the ⁷Be depositional fluxes ranged from 1.1 to 120 Bq m⁻², with a mean value of 32.7 Bq m⁻² (sd = 29.9 Bq m⁻²). The annual depositional flux was estimated at 1140 ± 120 Bq m⁻² y⁻¹. Assuming the same monthly deposition pattern and that the ⁷Be content in soil decreases only through radioactive decay, the seasonal variation of ⁷Be areal activity density in soil was estimated. Results of this investigation may contribute to a valuable characterization of ⁷Be input in the explored semiarid ecosystem and its potential use as tracer of environmental processes.     

对当前全球气候变化问题的思考

全球气候变化问题已经超越了一般环境问题的范畴,而成为国际政治经济外交关系的重要考虑因素。随着《京都议定书》的实施以及气候变化问题谈判进程的加快．对我国未来经济社会发展提出了挑战。文章分析认为．要求主要发展中国家承诺减限排义务的压力与日俱增,而我国开始进入工业化中期．应对气候变化问题的能力还比较薄弱。因此．提出应对全球气候变化问题的一些思考：（1）充分认识全球气候变化问题的重要性和严峻性,准确把握国际谈判进程;（2）加快制定适应和减缓气候变化的国家战略。采取适合我国国情的有力措施积极应对气候变暖;（3）加强气候变化领域的能力建设．提高我国参与全球气候变化活动的能力;（4）充分利用国际合作机制,提高我国应对气候变化的技术水平与经济能力。     

中国适应气候变化技术分类研究

近百年来,全球气候变化呈现出变暖的主要特征,气候变化所带来的影响日趋严重,其所造成的经济损失在全球范围内显著上升。适应气候变化是现阶段应对气候变化行动的重要方面,适应气候变化的技术分类研究是清晰认识适应气候变化的基础,是实现适应技术集成并构建合理有效的适应技术体系的手段。本文通过对适应气候变化技术分类问题的分析,提出了不同的适应气候变化技术分类方式,气候变化影响过程、区域、领域、适应目的、适应机制、适应时效、适应程度、适应层面等,针对气候变化及其影响梳理了中国不同区域与不同领域的适应气候变化技术清单。从气候变化影响过程来看,可以将适应气候变化技术分为气候变化影响发生前、发生过程中、发生后三类;从区域与领域气候变化影响来看,可以将适应气候变化技术分为八大区域与七大领域;本研究重点针对八大区域与农业、水资源、生态环境三大领域进行了分析。通过研究发现,现阶段适应气候变化技术分类研究尚存在一些问题,适应气候变化技术分类的导向不明确,造成对适应技术认识的不清晰;适应气候变化技术的分类往往与分层混淆在一起,导致人们对适应气候变化技术的认识和理解出现偏差;适应气候变化技术分类对适应行动的指导作用存在不足。综合来看,对适应气候变化技术进行精细分类,可以为适应气候变化技术的筛选、集成、效益评估奠定基础,推进适应气候变化行动高效有序开展,为适应气候变化技术体系构建提供支撑。     

全球气候变化对中国森林影响的研究进展

通过梳理现有文献表明,全球气候变化对社会经济和自然生态系统造成了重大影响,气候变化将显著地改变森林生态服务的供给水平和质量,对森林和以林为生的人口都会造成重要的生态、经济和社会影响,甚至威胁到人类的生存.我国是受气候变化影响较大而适应能力较弱的发展中国家,森林适应气候变化的科学、社会经济及对策研究相对滞后,因此,笔者从气候变化对历史上森林生态系统的影响着手,阐述了气候变化对森林分布、森林演替、森林生产力、生物多样性、森林火灾、森林水文调节和水质、森林生态系统的未来、森林生态服务的水平和质量等方面产生的影响,分析了现有气候变化对森林影响的研究存在的不足:忽略了其它环境因子的作用;忽略了不同物种之间的竞争机制;缺乏对极端气候事件的考虑;缺乏森林自身变化对气候变化的反馈;缺乏森林生态系统对全球气候变化相应机制更深入的认识;研究模型及数据的不完善性.文章最后提出了可将气候变化对森林造成的危害降到最低限度的政策建议.     

气候变化移民:极端气候事件与适应——基于对2010年西南特大干旱农村人口迁移的调查

国际上对气候因素引致人口迁移的直接关联性和重要程度一直存在争议.2010年我国西南地区遭受的特大千旱给探索极端气候事件和气候变化移民之间的复杂关系提供了研究背景.在此特大干旱影晌下,当地农村居民是否、以及怎样采用迁移的方式来应对?本文以2010年8-9月在受灾严重的云南省昆明市寻甸县所进行的田野调查为基础,揭示了特大干旱背景下当地农村人口的迁移行为及特征.调研结果表明在所调查的村组并未因此极端气候事件而引起大规模的气候变化移民活动,无论是暂时的还是永久的.为了解释灾后当地农村人口的迁移选择,本文引入“气候变化一人口迁移响应”的基本理论框架模型,考虑公共和私人两个层面的作用,对当地政府、村集体和农户自身的灾后适应行为进行深入分析和效果评价.结果表明在公共层面的各类帮扶和救助下,农户自身亦采取了多样化的适应措施,两个层面适应行为的共同作用缓解了特大干旱给农户生计带来的压力,使得农户家庭成员的迁移并不成为必须的选择.     

Studies on heavy metal accumulation in aquatic macrophytes from Sevan (Armenia) and Carambolim (India) lake systems

Aquatic macrophytes are unchangeable biological filters and they carry out purification of the water bodies by accumulating dissolved metals and toxins in their tissue. In view of their potential to entrap several toxic heavy metals, 45 macrophytes belonging to 8 families collected from two different physiographic locations (36 from Sevan Lake, Armenia; 9 from Carambolim Lake, Old Goa, India) were studied for estimation of 14 heavy metals. The study was aimed at understanding the importance of these macrophytes in accumulation of toxic metals and controlling the heavy metal pollution and suggesting the remedial measures, if any, for the preservation and restoration of lake ecosystem. Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometric (ICP-AES) analyses of these aquatic macrophytes have shown the importance of aquatic macrophytes in accumulation of heavy metals and maintaining the clarity of water bodies beside their role in trophic systems. Accumulation of most of the heavy metals was higher in root system. The representative macrophytes from two different physiographic locations show similar trends and order in accumulating different metals generally. Of the 14 metals investigated, 9 (Ca, Fe, Al, Cr, Cu, Ba, Ti, Co and Pb) showed higher rates of accumulation in the root whereas 3 (Mn, Zn and Mg) showed more accumulation in stem and 1 (Ca) showed higher accumulation in the leaves. In most of the samples Cu was accumulated more in the roots (50+/-47.15 microg/g) and less in flowers (9.52+/-3.97 microg/g). Occurrence of heavy metal was much higher in macrophytes of Sevan Lake than that of the Carambolim Lake. The accumulation of 14 elements was in order of Ca>Mg>Fe>Al>Mn>Ba>Zn>Ti>Cu>Cr>Co>Ni>Pb>Cd. The present study revealed that the aquatic macrophytes play a very significant role in removing the different metals from the ambient environments. They probably play a major role in reducing the effect of high concentration of heavy metals. Therefore, the macrophyte community of the Sevan Lake area needs to be protected and restored on a priority basis. Accumulation of highly toxic metals like--Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni was lower as compared to the essential metals like Ca, Fe and Mn in all the macrophytes from both the lake systems, consequently high metal concentrations observed in both the areas may not directly reflect on the pollution level.     

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of climate change on a pine forest stand in Central Siberia (Zotino) to assess benefits and risks for such forests in the future. We use the regional statistical climate model STARS to develop a set of climate change scenarios assuming a temperature increase by mid-century of 1, 2, 3 and 4 K. The process-based forest growth model 4C is applied to a 200-year-old pine forest to analyse impacts on carbon and water balance as well as the risk of fire under these climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios indicate precipitation increases mainly during winter and decreases during summer with increasing temperature trend. They cause rising forest productivity up to about 20 % in spite of increasing respiration losses. At the same time, the water-use efficiency increases slightly from 2.0 g C l^?1 H₂O under current climate to 2.1 g C l^?1 H₂O under 4 K scenario indicating that higher water losses from increasing evapotranspiration do not appear to lead to water limitations for the productivity at this site. The simulated actual evaporation increases by up to 32 %, but the climatic water balance decreases by up to 20 % with increasing temperature trend. In contrast, the risk of fire indicated by the Nesterov index clearly increases. Our analysis confirms increasing productivity of the boreal pine stand but also highlights increasing drought stress and risks from abiotic disturbances which could cancel out productivity gains.