Concentrating solar power in a sustainable future electricity mix

The capacity of a concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) plant can be considered flexible and firm, just like that of a conventional steam cycle power station. Periods without sunshine can be bridged by thermal energy storage or fuel, enabling a CSP plant to deliver power on demand at any time. To this technical quality is added the economic quality of electricity costs that will be stable for a lifetime because they are mainly composed of capital costs, spare parts and personnel. CSP is competitive with power from fuel oil and moving to break even in costs with natural gas by around 2020 and steam coal by around 2025. Carbon dioxide emissions of 10–40 tons/GWh, land use of 250–550 m²/GWh and water consumption of 250 m³/GWh (using dry cooling) compare favorably with other energy sources. Environmental benefits, the technical imperative of firm and at the same time flexible power supply, and the economic targets of affordability and cost stability are the main reasons for a significant role for CSP in a sustainable future electricity mix. Two case studies show the different roles CSP can play north and south of the Mediterranean Sea, in one case importing CSP to Germany for flexible power and in the second case using CSP in Jordan to provide firm and at the same time renewable power capacity for the quickly growing electricity demand.     

Analysis of the soil water balance for large-scale reforestation with <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eucommia ulmoides</Emphasis> in the hilly red soil region of southern China

Returning farmland to forests is important for the protection of ecological values. Eucommia ulmoides is considered to be a suitable species for reforestation in the hilly red soil region of southern China. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the water supply and demand of an E. ulmoides plantation to provide insights into the feasibility of large-scale planting for ecological restoration and forest management activities in the hilly red soil region of southern China. With the measured precipitation, surface runoff and interflow and actual evapotranspiration (ET_c) estimated by the modified P–M model, soil water storage (SWS) was estimated based on the water balance equation. Monthly variations of SWS were then compared with in situ measured SWS. The results showed that the estimated mean monthly water losses (the sum of the surface runoff, interflow and ET_c) were 139.8 mm in a wet year and 120.0 mm in a dry year, while the measured mean monthly water input values (net precipitation) were 131.2 mm in a wet year and 70.8 mm in a dry year. Net soil water storage (ΔSWS) was negative in each month of the growing season in a dry year, but the soil water deficit was replenished during the following season. The model performance showed that the modified P–M model can be adapted to estimate the soil water storage in other forest catchments where no adequate in situ data are available. As a result of estimating the water balance and observing soil water storage in two different hydrological years, E. ulmoides is recommended as a suitable forest rehabilitation species in the study area, and a suitable plant region has been defined by the GIS technique based on the water balance model.     

Assessment of irrigation system sustainability using the Theil–Sen estimator of slope of time series

Agriculture, especially the irrigated sector, is the mainstay of Sudan’s economy as it accounts for 40 % of gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 % of the workforce. The economic viability of irrigated schemes is dependent on three factors: crop yield, water management and cropped area. The research question of this study was whether or not the current status of these factors can be sustained in order to maintain the economic viability of irrigation systems? To answer this question, a new (to the best of the author’s knowledge) approach was developed based on time series analysis, and on the Theil–Sen estimator of slope. The study defined sustainability conceptually as “the ability of an irrigation system to sustain crop yields using the optimum cropped area and water consumption to realize the economic viability of the irrigation system without a decline in soil quality and environment”. Time series datasets of crop yields, cropped area and irrigation water consumption are collected routinely by statistical departments. Any abrupt years in the development of trends were detected and related to their driving forces/causes, of which climatic conditions and marketing policies were found to be the most important. The simple approach developed proved its suitability for quantifying the progress of irrigated schemes’ towards sustainability development as tested under the conditions of Gezira irrigated scheme in Sudan—the largest singly managed irrigation scheme in the world. The scheme was found to be sustainable under the condition that the crop yield is considered as the top priority; otherwise, the sustainability of the scheme is jeopardized.     

城市屋面雨水利用潜力分析——以南京市河西地区某小区为例

城市雨水利用是解决城市水资源短缺和减轻内涝灾害的手段之一。以南京市某小区为例,在分析南京市降雨特征的基础上,利用1〖DK〗∶500地形图资料计算了不同降雨保证率条件下该小区屋面雨水可收集量,分析了雨水收集利用在减轻城市内涝方面的作用,并提出了设置地面蓄水池的4条原则,在此基础上调查分析了该小区设置地面蓄水池的可行性。结果表明:在降雨保证率为50%时,通过屋面年可收集利用的雨量为114 272 1 m3;在日降雨量为500和955 mm（南京市多年平均年最大日降雨量）时,屋面雨水利用可减少214%和112%的地表径流;小区内可设置蓄水池的建筑屋面面积占总屋面面积的55%,其中住宅和其他类建筑中可设置蓄水池的建筑屋面面积比例占77%     

黄土高原半干旱区雨水利用与可持续农业发展研究

黄土高原半干旱区是一个特定的生态类型和重要的农业区域 ,严重的水土流失和频繁的干旱是该区农业可持续发展的主要制约因素。本文在分析雨水利用可行性的基础上 ,提出了农业发展的有效模式———集水型生态农业 ,它不仅适应于当地的雨水等自然资源条件 ,更适应生产力发展水平 ,易于在农户水平上推广 ,并且具有显著的经济、生态和社会效益 ,是实现该区农业可持续发展的战略性举措 ,同时也为“退耕还林 (草 )”开发战略的实施提供了一个思路     

Indicators of deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon

In recent years, Amazonian deforestation has become a question of global concern. Deforestation in Amazon is a complex phenomenon in nature and has been related to traditional agriculture expansion. In this work, land use, socioeconomic and conservation indicators, combined with statistical analysis, were used to understand forces associated with patterns of deforestation. This approach was applied in Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon in Mato Grosso State, which represents an extensive rain forest-savanna ecotone, located in the south border of Amazon biome. Based on data from the last two agricultural censuses (1995/1996–2006), we compared agricultural expansion in this area and Mato Grosso state. Results have shown that 85 % of state deforestation was concentrated in Southern Pre-Amazon and was closely related to increase in number of cattle and pasture area. PCA results pointed that population (92 %), number of cattle (86.5 %), pastures (84.2 %) and tractors (78.4 %) were variables with highest positive correlation to deforestation. It showed that GDP contributes to an individual axis and has a low correlation to deforestation (37.8 %). Conservation units and indigenous reserves also contribute to a single axis and were negatively correlated to temporary crops area. Results revealed a significant reduction in production and commercialization of extractive products in the region, revealing that the main, almost only conservation policy in Mato Grosso remains the creation of Special Areas. We suggest that further studies are necessary to screen development alternatives to simple cutting trees down. It is important to diversify strategies for deforestation control, and development aspects must be more seriously considered to reach a sustainable deforestation control policy.     

Analyzing the hydrologic effects of region-wide land and water development interventions: a case study of the Upper Blue Nile basin

In the drylands of the Upper Blue Nile basin, high climate variability and land degradation are rampant. To enhance adaptive capacity in the region, various soil and water conservation interventions have been implemented. Moreover, water resources development schemes such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam should be implemented by 2025. We modeled the effects of these interventions on surface runoff in the basin for both current and future (2025) basin conditions, using the runoff coefficient method in a spatially explicit approach. Under current conditions, we observed high spatial variability of mean annual runoff. The northeastern Blue Nile-1 sub-basin produces the highest mean annual runoff (391 mm or 10 × 10⁹ m³), whereas the northwestern Blue Nile-2 sub-basin produces the lowest mean annual runoff (178 mm or 0.2 × 10⁹ m³). The basin generates a total annual runoff volume of 47.7 × 10⁹ m³, of which about 54 % comes from cultivated land. The strong association between land use and topography masked the direct effect of rainfall on runoff. By 2025, total annual runoff yield could decrease by up to 38 % if appropriate basin-wide soil and water conservation interventions and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam are implemented. However, the full effects of most physical structures will only last for 1 or 2 years without regular maintenance. The improved understanding of the dynamics of the Upper Blue Nile basin’s hydrology provided by the present study will help planners to design appropriate management scenarios. Developing the basin’s database remains important for a holistic understanding of the impacts of future development interventions.     

Human–carnivore conflict: ecological and economical sustainability of predation on livestock by snow leopard and other carnivores in the Himalaya

Human communities in the Trans-Himalayan region depend on the dynamics of the agro-pastoral system for survival. Humans, livestock and wild predators share common resources in the region, and this leads to human–wildlife interactions that have the potential to threaten the continued viability of this fragile ecosystem and impact the local economy. This study explored the interaction between livestock and predators in the upper Mustang region of Nepal in terms of economic and ecological impacts. A total of 1,347 km² of pasture land were grazed by 30,217 livestock belonging to local people from six village development committees. It was found that the seasonal movement patterns of livestock, from higher to lower elevations (closer to villages), coincided with elevation movements of wild ungulate prey and snow leopards into this smaller land area. The number of livestock reported to have been killed by predators during the study period was 706, 75 % of which was attributed to snow leopards. An estimated US$ 44,213 was lost between October 2009 and June 2011 due to livestock predation. These losses of livestock to snow leopards and other carnivores provoked retaliatory killings by villagers, and this in turn may significantly affect the viability of predator populations in this region. We suggest four approaches to mitigate human–carnivore conflict in the region: (a) introduce a livestock insurance policy, (b) promote the use of predator-proof livestock corrals and sheds, (c) involve local people in alternative income generating activities, and (d) increase conservation education in these regions.     

Integrated hydrologic–economic decision support system for groundwater use confronting climate change uncertainties in the Tunuyán River basin,Argentina

This study presents an integrated hydrologic–economic model as decision support system for groundwater use and incorporates uncertainties of climate change. The model was developed with the Vensim software (Ventana Systems) for system dynamic simulations. The software permitted the integration of economic variables along with hydrologic variables, in a unified format with the aim of evaluating the economic impacts of climate change on arid environments. To test the model, we applied it in one of the upper Tunuyán River sub-basin, located in the Mendoza Province (Argentina), where irrigation comes from groundwater. The model defines the best mix of crops and the total land use required to maximize the total river sub-basin monetary income, considering as a limit the amount of water that does not exceed the natural annual aquifer recharge. To estimate the impacts of climatic changes, four scenarios were compared: the business as usual (with the number of existing wells) in a dry year with a temperature increase of 4 °C; the business as usual in a wet year with an increase in temperature of 1.1 °C; an efficient use of wells in a dry year and a temperature increase of 4 °C and an efficient use of wells in a wet year with a temperature increase of 1.1 °C. Outputs calculated by the model were: land use per crop, total sub-basin net benefit, total sub-basin water extraction, water extraction limit depending on river discharge and total number of wells required to irrigate the entire area. Preliminary results showed that the number of existing wells exceeded the optimized number of wells required to sustainably irrigate the entire river sub-basin. Results indicated that in an average river discharge year, if wells were efficiently used, further rural development would be possible, until the limit of 350 million m³ of water extraction per year was reached (650 million m³ for a wet year and 180 million m³ for a dry year). The unified format and the low cost of the software license make the model a useful tool for Water Resources Management Institutions, particularly in developing countries.     

An assessment of urban vulnerability in the Amazon Delta and Estuary: a multi-criterion index of flood exposure,socio-economic conditions and infrastructure

The Amazon Delta and Estuary (ADE) is a region of continental and global ecological importance. Controversy, many of the basic infrastructure and services essential for quality of life and sustainable development of this delta are absent. Using a conceptual model to define socio-economic vulnerability in the urban ADE, a thorough assessment of indicators including sanitation services, housing conditions, household income, population, flood risk and unplanned settlements was conducted in 41 cities at the census sector scale (n = 2938). A multi criterion index was applied to classify urban vulnerability from three dimensions: flood exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and infrastructure. This is the first study to examine urban vulnerability within and between urban areas of the ADE. Results indicated that most of the urban sectors of the ADE are exposed to potential risks due to a combination of flood hazards, poverty and basic structural deficiencies such as insufficient drinking water or inadequate waste water collection, with several sectors being afflicted by similar problems. The assessment of vulnerability indicates that 60–90 % of the urban population live in conditions of moderate to high degree of vulnerability. The ADE cities presented a pattern where vulnerability increases from city center to their newly developed urban areas. Inadequate planning coupled with rapid urbanization has contributed to the development of unplanned settlements in almost half of the urban sectors of the ADE. Combined, these factors contribute to widespread socio-economic vulnerability along the urban spaces of the ADE, increasing exposure to health risks and more frequent seasonal and stochastic events such as storm surges and high flooding levels.     

Factors influencing farmers’ decisions on nitrogen fertilizer application in the Liangzihu Lake basin,Central China

Overuse of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture activities has caused severe water pollution in China. The lack of data at producer level hampers decision makers in the development and implementation of efficient policies to curb excessive N-fertilizer use. In a survey of 300 farm households in the Liangzihu Lake basin, we identified factors associated with farmers’ decisions on N-fertilizer use and application rate. Household survey and multiple linear regression models indicate that the average application rate in the study region is 229 kg N ha^?1, which exceeds the recommended rate for maximum profit for cereal crops (maize, wheat, and rice) in China of 150–180 kg N ha^?1. High N-application rates are associated with low farmland productivity (coefficient = ?15.66, p = 0.02), a high share of off-farm income (coefficient = 27.14, p = 0.003), and a low education level of the household head (coefficient = ?10.83, p = 0.039). Neither physical infrastructure nor access to input markets appears to be related to N-application rates. It may be concluded that excessive use of N in agriculture of Central China is mainly a problem of insufficient awareness and high share of off-farm income.     

Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus

Drought in the northern part of Cyprus has become a recurrent phenomenon. In the last few decades, Cyprus has experienced significantly severe drought events occurring periodically, and this trend is now continuing. With rainfall distribution varying considerably across the region and frequent drought conditions, the water resources, agriculture, economy and the environment have been adversely affected. This study aims to investigate spatial–temporal characteristic of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (3, 6 and 12 months). Monthly time series of 36 years (1977–2013) rainfall data from nine weather stations are used to derive SPI values. Based on different drought categories, this study focuses on propagation of drought from one timescale to another and estimating critical rainfall values during moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions. The analysis revealed that there is a strong correlation among different timescales in detecting drought events. On average, 79 and 78% of 3-month timescale drought propagated into 6- and 12-month drought events, respectively, while 90% of 6-month timescale drought events propagated into 12-month drought events. The derived critical rainfall value for extreme droughts over a 12-month timescale was less than 255 mm/year in the town of Alsancak, while for Guzelyurt, a major citrus growing city, this figure was less than 135 mm/year. The results are validated through drought events detected at various regions of the Mediterranean basin and local flood occurrences during the wet periods and decline in water tables at drought seasons.     

Climate trends and impacts on crop production in the Koshi River basin of Nepal

Understanding crop responses to climate is essential to cope with anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated the climate–crop yield relationship and the impact of historical climate on yields of rice, maize and wheat in the Koshi basin of Nepal. The results show significant impact of growing season temperature and precipitation on crop production in the region. Rice, maize and wheat cultivated at altitudes below 1,100, 1,350 and 1,700 m amsl (above mean sea level), respectively, suffer from stress due to higher temperatures particularly during flowering and yield formation stages. Responses of crop yields to a unitary increment in growing season mean temperature vary from ?6 to 16 %, ?4 to 11 % and ?12 to 3 % for rice, maize and wheat, respectively, depending on the location and elevation in the basin. In most parts of the basin, we observe warming trends in growing season mean temperatures of rice, maize and wheat over the last few decades with clear evidence of negative impacts on yields. However, at some high-elevation areas, positive impacts of warming are also observed on rice and maize yields. If the observed trends in temperature continue in future, the impact is likely to be mostly negative on crop production in the basin. However, crop production may gain from the warming at relatively higher altitudes provided other conditions, e.g., water availability, soil fertility, are favorable.     

Performance analysis of solar water heating system in Centre for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics (CDFD), Southern region of India

In the present study, a natural circulation thermosyphon flat plate solar water heater has been tested at the CDFD, Hyderabad (17.37°N, 78.43°E) Andhra Pradesh, India. Experimental data were noted on a sunny day. Dynamic response of the system to variations in solar insulation was studied and analyzed. T _inlet °C and T _outlet °C temperatures were recorded. The performance of the system can be improved by using aluminum tape inserts into the collector fins. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the performance of flat plate collector with and without inserts (aluminum strip of 1 mm thick, 3 mm width and 203 mm length). It is expected that with the same collector with the same flow rate, higher efficiency can be obtained by inserting the tapes inside the collector copper fins (9 mm). Thus, the cost of the system can be further bringing down by enhancing the collector efficiency.     

Temporal patterns of road network development in the Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon is a globally important ecosystem that is undergoing rapid development and land-use change. Roads are a key spatial determinant of land-use conversion and strongly influence the rates and patterns of habitat loss and represent a key component of models that attempt to predict the spatio-temporal patterns of Amazonian land-use change and the consequences of such changes. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of road network development are poorly understood and seldom quantified. Here, we used manually digitised satellite imagery at multiple temporal and spatial scales across the Brazilian Amazon to quantify and model the rate at which road networks are proliferating. We found that the road network grew by almost 17,000 km per year between 2004 and 2007. There was large spatial variation in road network density, with some municipalities having road densities as high as 0.5 km/km², and road network growth rates were highest in municipalities with an intermediate road network density. Simulations indicated that road network development within municipalities follows a logistic growth pattern through time, with most of the development occurring within a 39-year time period. This time period is similar to those of other boom and bust development dynamics observed in the Brazilian Amazon. Understanding the temporal patterns of road development will aid the development of better predictive land-use change models for the Amazon, given the key importance of roads as a predictor of deforestation in many existing models.     

Environmental externalities in relation to agricultural sector in Thailand with trade-linked analysis

Thailand plays an important role in the international trade of food and agricultural products, which is in alignment with its national strategy of serving as the “kitchen of the world.” When looking at its agricultural promotion and export policies, the country only counts the value gains from exports while neglecting environmental externalities related to plantation practices. The purpose of this study was to perform a trade-off analysis between consumptive water, land, and fertilizer use together with the economic values of major crops for export and consumption in the country. The results show that to gain income from agricultural exports, the country has exploited various natural resources. The area used to harvest rice, sugarcane, cassava, and rubber adds up to approximately 15.3 million ha: 7.2 million ha of which is for domestic consumption and 8.1 ha for export. To produce Thailand’s agricultural exports, total water use is estimated to be 49.8–67.5 billion m³ per year (61–65 %), while the amount used to produce crops for domestic consumption is 26.5–43.7 billion m³ per year (35–39 %). Meanwhile, 1,056–1,826 thousand tons (54 %) of fertilizer was used on crops for domestic consumption, and 1,222–1,370 thousand tons (46 %) of fertilizer was used on export crops. The best crop choice for export in terms of its export value, land use, fertilizer use, and water consumption is rubber. The worst crop choices for export are rice and cassava. More sustainable agricultural practices are needed to effect improvements such as increased yields and reduced fertilizer and water use.     

The economic value of coastal waters as nutrient filters for the Baltic Sea

This paper calculates the economic value of coastal zones as nutrient filters by using the replacement cost method, which implies that the value is calculated as the savings in costs from reaching politically determined future nutrient target. It is shown that the magnitude of this value depends on the cost of other abatement measures besides nutrient filters of coastal zones, the stringency and timing of the nutrient target, discount rate, and spatial and temporal dispersions of cleaning impacts. The application to the Baltic Sea indicates that the value can amount to approximately 600 billions of SEK (1 Euro = 9.01 SEK, June 3, 2012), which corresponds to 1.9 % of the Baltic Sea region’s total gross domestic product. The largest gains are obtained by Poland because this country faces the largest financial burdens of meeting targets.     

Climatic and human drivers of recent lake-level change in East Juyan Lake,China

Drying of an inland river’s terminal lake in arid regions is an important signal of environmental degradation in downstream regions. A long-term, high-resolution understanding of the lake’s retreat and expansion and the driving mechanisms will inform future adaptive water management strategies, ecosystem restoration, and government decision-making in the context of a growing water scarcity in the inland river basin. The shrubs that grow along the shore of a lake often provide evidence of lake retreat or expansion. The chronological results showed that the earliest germination dates of the lakeshore shrubs, tamarisk, were in 1901, 1943, 1966, 2009, and 1990 from the higher terrace to the lower terrace of East Juyan Lake, a terminal lake of China’s Heihe River. Coupled with river and lake hydrological data, six obvious lake’s fluctuations were identified: shrinkage from 1900 to 1940s and during the early 1990s, expansion and retreat in the late 1950s and early 1970s, continued expansion from 2002 to 2008, and stabilization at a water area of around 40 km² from 2009 to the present. The water elevation in the 1900s was below 905 m a.s.l., resulting in a water area <80 km², but decreased to 40 km² after 1960 and dried up completely by the 1990s. By analysing climatic and hydrological records since 1950, tree-ring climate proxy data, river runoff outside the observation period, and water resource consumption in the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River, we found that the periodic expansion and retreat of East Juyan Lake was influenced by both climate change and human activities, but especially by human activities. The lake’s recent recovery and stability was achieved by government policy designed to provide environmental flows to the lake.     

Long-term simulation of effects of energy crop cultivation on nitrogen leaching and surface water quality in Saxony/Germany

The production of energy crops in Germany is a growing agronomic sector and is expected to occupy a substantial share of farmland in the near future. At the same time, there are concerns that energy crops might cause increased nitrogen pollution of soil water, surface water and groundwater. Therefore, the Federal State of Saxony, Germany, funded a study on potential effects of an intensified cultivation of energy crops. In frame of this study, we used the Web GIS-based model STOFFBILANZ to simulate N leaching from the rooting zone and N loads of surface water for a reference scenario and an energy crop scenario. For the reference scenario, we used data representing the crop cultivation for the year 2005 at municipality level. We found that the total loads for N leaching from the rooting zone of cropland are highest for the loess region (8,067 t year^?1), followed by mountainous region (6,797 t year^?1) and lowland (5,443 t year^?1). However, highest N fluxes in the leachate from rooting zones have been simulated for lowland (40.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1) and mountainous region (37.1 kg ha^?1 year^?1), while nitrate concentrations of leachate were highest for the lowland (101.8 mg l^?1). In terms of diffuse N input into surface water, the mountainous region is the most important source area (total N load 6,380 t year^?1, flux 34.6 kg ha^?1 year^?1). Retention by in-stream processes accounts for 15 % (3,784 t year^?1) of the total N load leaving the study area (25,136 t year^?1). In the 2020 energy crop scenario, shares of rape and silage maize (id., ensiled corn) were limited for each municipality to a maximum of 25 and 33 %, respectively. The conversion of grasslands to crop farming was not allowed. Under these conditions, we found slight to substantial reductions of nitrogen loads for leachate from the rooting zone and for surface waters. The simulated reduction depends strongly on local conditions. Only small reductions (ca. 4–8 %) were found for the lowlands and mountainous regions of Saxony, while reductions for the loess region were substantial (ca. 22 %). A major outcome of our study is that the cultivation of energy crops might reduce N loss if certain preconditions are assumed, for example, without conversion of grasslands to crop farming. However, effects might vary widely depending on local conditions.     

Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to concerns over the degradation of forest land leading to deterioration of the protection of water catchments and exposure of highly erodible soils. Furthermore, the area is identified as hotspot for biodiversity loss. The aim of this paper is to identify geophysical and geographical factors related to land use change and model how these relationships vary across the district. For three selected zones across the elevation gradient of the district, we analyse land use change by studying land use maps for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. In the high-altitude zone, the forest area decreased by 30.5 %, a third of which was caused by agricultural expansion. In the mid-elevation zone, agriculture expanded by 70.3 % and forests decreased by 49.7 %. In the lower altitudes, agriculture expansion was 129.9 % consuming 31.7 % of the forest area over the forty-year time period. Annual deforestation rates observed were 0.80, 1.28 and 1.86 % in high, mid and low altitudes, respectively. In the high-altitude ecosystems, accessibility (distance to nearest road and city) had no significant role in agriculture expansion; rather land use change appears significantly related to geophysical factors such as slope, aspect and altitude. In the low-elevation zone, accessibility was the factor showing the closest association with agriculture expansion and abandonment. The analysis illustrates that land use change processes vary quite considerably between different altitudinal and vegetation cover zones of the same district and that environmental constraints and stage of economic development provide important contextual information.