旅游城市环境规划优化方法与应用研究(Ⅱ)昆明旅游圈环境规划优化

将IFMOPOMTCE该模型应用于昆明市旅游圈旅游环境规划优化的实例当中，取得了较为成功的效果，并采用情景分析和交互式调整的方法制定出两种方案。通过比较分析确定出适合昆明旅游业持续发展的最优发展方案，为决策者提供了科学的决策依据，从而证明了该模型的实用性和可操作性。     

计算机建模及其在空气质量模拟和预测中的应用

计算机建模在工程技术、生产管理、军事指挥、交通物流、生命科学乃至社会人文领域均得到广泛的应用.详细论述了计算机建模在空气污染治理中的运用并深入探讨了其优势和局限性.首先介绍了目前空气质量模型的分类,对比了各类模型的建模机理和算法.接着以广泛应用的CMAQ模型为代表,分析了欧拉三维格点模型在模型结构和区域性环境规划方面的优势,着重介绍了最新发布的CMAQ 5.0,论述了它的各项新特征如何提高其在模拟环境污染物浓度方面的准确度.接着结合实例详细介绍了CMAQ及其敏感度模块在空气质量预警预报和大气污染控制方案评估、决策中的应用.最后对空气质量模型的发展趋势进行了总结与展望,针对其局限性提出建设性意见并指出了今后的模型发展方向.     

基于模态实验的细长体两点激振试验方案的制定

目的细长体两点激振试验方案中,更好地选择激励位置、控制位置和悬挂点的位置。方法制定两点激振试验方案时需要参考试件的模态信息。结果根据试验方案的确定方法和模态试验理论,利用试件模型的模态试验结果,建立了一种试验方案制定时的激振位置、控制位置、悬挂位置计算方法,量化了试验方案的确定方法。结论通过两种试验方案控制位置、悬挂位置计算数值的对比,可以直观地对比不同试验方案的优劣,有利于两点激振试验方案的制定和选择。     

AHP与SMART方法在环境工程方案评比中的应用

本文以某大型污水海洋处置工程的方案评选工作为背景，介绍了ＡＨＰ和ＳＭＡＲＴ多目标决策方法在环境规划与决策中的应用。具体叙述了方案选优的总技术路线，目标体系的建立，目标相对权重的确定，指标值的评判与规范、方案排序与结果灵敏度和合理性分析等内容。结果表明，ＡＨＰ与ＳＭＡＲＴ方法相结合，是适于环境工程方案评选的一种较科学合理的方法。     

高斯扩散衍生公式在环境风险评价中的应用

为在大气环境风险评价中客观地确定危险源、估算各类突发性事故的危害,在高斯扩散模型基础上,通过严格的数学推导,得出一整套适用于鉴别与评估大气环境突发事故危害后果（危害区、危害期等）的定量估算公式,使用方便,结果精确。所有公式使用条件与高斯扩散模型相同,可用于直接求取任意浓度等值线精确的时、空位置及其特征点位置。作为高斯扩散模型的衍生公式,可广泛应用于风险工程设计、风险工程保险、环境风险评价、环境风险管理、环境影响评价与环境规划等各个领域     

环境规划中情景分析方法及应用研究

确定环境规划中情景分析的步骤和方法主要包括:对象和焦点问题及关键决策识别,核心要素识别,驱动因子列举,驱动因子重要性和不确定性排序,核心情景驱动选择和情景勾画,情景的丰富和应用.以邛海流域的环境规划为案例进行分析,设计了2005-2015年的4种情景,并利用系统动力学模型(SD)和不确定性模糊多目标模型(IFMOP)对情景进行了定量描述和分析.结果显示,邛海的环境污染压力正在增大,污染源治理和生态工程是需要优先考虑的项目,但所需的投资巨大,对地方财政造成很大压力,需要寻求新的投资途径并加强环境管制.      

天津市PM_(10)污染控制决策模型

探索了城市空气颗粒物污染控制决策的流程.分析了颗粒物排放源类的分担率、颗粒物的可削减空间、控制措施实施的可执行性及控制技术经济成本等方面对颗粒物污染控制决策的影响,在此基础上,结合空气质量模型、颗粒物来源解析、层次分析法等技术,建立了颗粒物污染控制方案优选方法及相应的决策模型.以天津市为例,分别设定颗粒物各排放源类的控制情景,计算不同控制情景下环境空气中ρ(PM10)削减率,在对所有方案初筛的基础上,采用层次分析法确定颗粒物污染控制的最优方案组合.     

合成旅后装保障方案决策运用模糊评价方法探讨

为使合成旅后装保障方案的决策过程量化,达到决策结果更加符合客观事实的目的,通过引入模糊评价方法,结合分析后装保障方案决策的选择影响因素,确定了不同指标因素下对应的隶属函数,进而建立了针对后装保障方案决策评价问题的定量分析评价模型,最后给出该评价方法的实例运用,结果分析可知该模型在一定程度上保证了后装保障方案决策的科学合理性。     

流域负荷削减的主观深度不确定性分析及稳健决策

深度不确定性影响着流域负荷削减及其决策.针对决策过程中主观层面产生的深度不确定性,本文提出了包含3个部分的稳健性决策方法:(1)确定衡量主观因素的权重的合理范围,采取适当采样方法确定每组合理权重下的最优决策;(2)稳健性指标计算;(3)以稳健性指标为目标结合进化算法求出稳健决策.将上述方法应用到江西八里湖的总氮(TN)负荷削减决策之中,该决策问题的相关模型考虑到了污染负荷与水质的响应关系及客观不确定性.以此为基础,在八里湖流域TN 277~297 t的年负荷削减水平下分析主观深度不确定性的影响.结果显示,即便结构相似的权重,细微的改变也能导致不同权重下的最优决策发生比较大的变化,而通过上述方法可以识别出污染负荷削减的稳健决策,该决策以点源及特定子流域的面源控制为主.在削减率上下波动5%(2.5%)的范围内,上述方案能够在83.5%(40.3%)的合理权重情况下保持最优,说明该决策能够满足绝大部分情况下对于不同站点之间的权衡考虑,可以为最终决策提供支持.     

基于层次分析法的城市生活垃圾收运模式优选

以北京市海淀区的生活垃圾收运和分类为例,运用层次分析法(AHP)对混合收集运输、分类收集运输而转运站功能不变、分类收集运输且转运站功能改变3 种方案进行综合比较分析,探讨与垃圾分类趋势相适应的城市生活垃圾收运模式.结果表明,混合收集运输为最差方案;分类收集运输并且改变转运站功能为最优方案,而分类收集运输而转运站功能不变可作为最优与最差方案的过渡方案.     

多源模型在确定区域SO2环境容量中的应用

大气扩散模型和容量测算工具有多种选择.一个关键的问题是对各种模型进行比较和检验,选择一种适合当地实际的模型或工具,进行参数选择和调整,得到相对比较准确、合理的大气环境容量测算结果.计算SO2环境容量是区域环境影响评价的重要组成部分.本研究对区域大气SO2环境容量测算进行了两种设计,针对这两种容量设计,选择了两种测算模式,比例模式和线性规划模式.分别计算出现状排放源布局及排放状况不变的条件下的SO2现状环境容量;以及对现状排放源进行合理分配的规划环境容量.     

A methodology for the design of efficient resource conservation networks using adaptive swarm intelligence

The implementation of resource conservation schemes in industry can be enhanced through the application of systematic design methodologies. In particular, process integration methods allow resource consumption and waste generation in industrial plants to be reduced through the identification of efficient material reuse/recycle schemes. Various approaches, ranging from graphical pinch analysis to mathematical programming, have been developed by different researchers. Mathematical programming techniques provide considerable flexibility in the representation of network design problems, although in many cases, these approaches result in mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) models which are difficult to solve. This paper presents a simplified approach using a zero–one programming or “knapsack” formulation for the design of industrial material reuse/recycle networks. It is possible to solve the resulting model using an efficient heuristic algorithm based on adaptive particle swarm optimization. Two sample applications are provided to illustrate the methodology. The first case shows the application of the methodology to the implementation of industrial water conservation and the second case demonstrates its use in the design of a hydrogen gas reuse/recycle scheme in a refinery.     

Complementarity,biodiversity viability analysis,and policy-based algorithms for conservation

Biodiversity conservation “area-selection” strategies include not only trade-offs among society’s needs in land-use allocation, but also allocation of economic instruments such as incentives, levies, and biodiversity credits. For these applications, the key property of an area is its “complementarity”—the context-dependent, marginal gain in biodiversity provided by the area. Given that there has been little implementation of whole-sets of areas generated by the popular computer-based selection methods, we suggest that analogous “policy-based algorithms” would be a more effective real-world application of complementarity. Areas would be “selected” for conservation over time as a consequence of policies in which dynamic complementarity values influence application of economic instruments. These integrated biodiversity/economic strategies can use an extended form of complementarity reflecting marginal changes in regional probability of persistence of biodiversity. While probabilistic measures of biodiversity viability have been explored in area-selection for some time, it remains difficult to make viability statements about “all of biodiversity.” New approaches that use biodiversity surrogate information for “biodiversity viability analysis” (BVA) can take advantage of a general quantitative biodiversity framework in which pattern-based relationships among areas allow predictions at the species level. A standard assumption of “unimodal” species responses to environmental gradients yields an expected distribution of species in an ordination pattern, and allows sampling of inferred species. Based on environmental correlates, inferred species can be mapped in geographic space, forming distribution fragments. This information, when linked to species persistence models, may allow ongoing calculation of areas’ complementarity values. An example illustrates application of these ordination models to museum collection data for lizards from New South Wales (NSW), Australia.     

Environmental performance,indicators and measurement uncertainty in EMS context: a case study

EMS is a tool for managing the interaction between the organization and the environment. The aim of an EMS is to improve the overall environmental performance of the organization. The performance should be monitored through measurements, and managed by indicators. Indicators are variables that summarize or otherwise simplify relevant information about the state of a complex system. A correct evaluation of environmental performance arises from the choice of adequate “raw” data and from the relationships among “raw” data.This paper, after a short excursus concerning the rule of indicators in environmental performance evaluation and the mean of uncertainty, proposes an approach to the study and the evaluation, through indicators and indices, of the environmental aspect “wastewater discharges” of a Local Authority who is involved in EMS implementation. Particularly, the critical analysis of one of the indices that has been used is reported. The role of the uncertainty of measurements has been stressed. The results showed that measurement uncertainty is essential for an efficient data comparison and for a correct evaluation of environmental performance, which, in turn, is essential to guarantee the effectiveness of the EMS application.     

基于最优分割理论的酸雨监控点位的分类研究

Fisher最优分割法是用离差平方和来表示同类样本之间的差异程度,通过简便的计算步骤和作图,确定最优分类数,使同类样本间的差异最小,各类别样本间的差异最大,并用F检验法检验最优分类数的合理性。文章根据Fisher最优分割法的理论内涵,研究其应用于酸雨环境监测优化布点的可行性。以漳州市沿海区域监测点为研究实例,用Fisher最优分割法确定最优的分类情况和最优的优化布点方案。结果表明,原布设的9个监测点用Fisher最优分割法优化为3个典型点位,可客观地反映漳州市酸雨控制区的整体污染状况和污染趋势,该方法理论内涵直观、计算简便、重复性好,对环境质量监测有重要的意义。     

Policy options in a worst case climate change world

Climatic changes more rapid and extreme than assessed by the IPCC cannot be excluded, because of the possibility of positive earth system feedbacks and thresholds. Do today’s policy makers have to take these into account, and if so, are the options different from those considered today? The paper briefly summarizes the types of extreme climatic changes noted in the literature and then evaluates the options to address them in a what-if manner. Different from other studies, which usually look at only one type of measure, we consider a broader portfolio of options: drastic emissions reduction programmes, drawing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (“carbon dioxide removal”), “emergency cooling” through influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere (“solar radiation management”), and finally adaptation beyond the options considered seriously today. Politics will have to decide on the choice or mix of “emergency” measures, but research can ensure that such decisions are based on the best scientific information. If through concerted international efforts to mitigate greenhouse emissions low stabilization levels could be reached, such decisions may never have to be made. However, research in support of some form of a “plan B” is now warranted, focusing on those options that have the most positive ratio between potential effectiveness and feasibility on the one hand, and environmental and political risks on the other hand. Such plan should not be limited to one set of options such as geo-engineering and should explicitly take into account not only the relationships between the options but also the wide variety in characteristics of the individual options in terms of effectiveness, feasibility, environmental risks, and political implications.     

Eco-efficiency in the era of electronic commerce – should ‘Eco-Effectiveness’ approach be adopted?

In the 1980s, when PCs were first introduced, a vision arose of the “paperless office.” Yet, it did not yield the anticipated environmental benefits. Nowadays, such optimism about the implications of information technology, and in particular, E-commerce continues to proliferate today. But will E-commerce turn out to be a success story, or another unrealised utopia? Drawing on content analysis and concept development methods, this paper discusses a number of observations of interest in the literature that, taken together, point out that eco-efficiency is not sufficient to be the leadership strategy of choice for forecasting and reducing environmental damage arising from the implementation of E-commerce. Rather, utilizing an emerging concept of eco-effectiveness together with eco-efficiency may offer a model for managing the environmental consequences of E-commerce. Yet, to wield more influence, the current concept of eco-effectiveness needs to be expanded in order to complement – and not to replace – eco-efficiency.     

湖北省主要工业污染物排放的环境库兹涅茨特征研究

根据湖北省1999-2009年环境统计数据和经济数据,选取工业废水、废气、固体废物等6项主要环境指标,构建湖北省经济发展与环境污染水平关系的动态计量模型,从而对湖北省污染物排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)进行分析。研究结果表明,工业废水和工业固体废物EKC呈倒"N"型特征,排放量总体呈下降趋势;工业废气EKC则为直线分布关系,排放量呈逐步增大的趋势,而且没有出现拐点,表明经济产业结构是影响工业废气排放量的主要因素。可为湖北省生态环境与经济的协调发展提供一定的决策依据。     

环境影响评价机制中公众参与存在问题及对策研究

随着新环境保护法的实施,人们的环境保护意识越来越高,信息公开和公众参与的重要性也愈发凸显。对于环境保护的重要环节———公众参与,在建设项目的环境影响评价中更是体现了“民主决策”、“预防为主”的思想。随着公众对环保认识程度的加深,环境需求的提高,公众参与中一系列问题也随之产生。文章在结合实际工作的基础上,从参与者的人选及参与的方式、时机、信息公开的方式等方面剖析了公众参与存在的一些弊端,并提出了对策和措施,为中国现有的公众参与制度的完善提供了一些参考。     

基于公平原则的海域—流域水污染物总量分配方法研究

陆地和海洋是相互影响、相互制约的生态系统,海洋水污染物总量控制目标的实现取决于陆域排污情况,而陆域排污分配要充分考虑其对海洋环境的影响。本文从"海陆统筹"的环境管理角度,基于公平原则,充分考虑海域和陆域之间的相互影响及分配区域的现状情况,给出了"海域-流域-行政区"链条式的水污染物总量控制思路和"初次分配-公平性评估-优化调整再分配"的水污染物总量分配方法。分配过程采用了层次分析法、熵值法、基尼系数法等经典的公平方法,并在辽东湾-辽河流域COD总量分配中予以应用,可为有效治理海洋环境污染问题提供借鉴。