林区公路的管护与交通事故

简要地介绍了伊春林区公路运输中存在的问题，分析了交通事故的原因，提出了具体整改措施。     

Smoking,belt use,and road accidents of youth in Kuwait

Youth, worldwide, are involved in a disproportionate number of road accidents, in general, and fatal accidents, in particular. Kuwait is no exception to this trend. The objectives of this funded research were to identify the trends in belt use, smoking in motion, and road accidents of young drivers in Kuwait. Findings of a person-interview questionnaire survey of 1467 randomly selected young drivers in Kuwait are presented. The socio-economic, driving experience, belt use, smoking behaviour, and road accident involvements of the sample young drivers are given. The interrelationships between the socio-economic, belt use, smoking behaviour, and road traffic accidents are also examined. Degrees of association between these variables are determined, and the extent of potential contribution of smoking-in-motion to causes of road accidents is also determined. Young female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their young male counterparts; those who smoked while driving used seat belt less, and had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in Kuwait end the paper.     

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the road deaths to road injuries ratio and economic growth

Introduction: Past empirical studies indicated that there is a Kuznets or reverse U-shaped relationship between road deaths and per capita income, such that the number of road death increases at a low level of per capita reverse U-shaped relationship was observed between road injuries and per capita income. While these studies explored the impact of per capita income on road deaths and road injuries, no studies have examined the relationship between per capita income and road death to road injury ratio (DPI). Method: Using a fixed effects panel regression analysis from 67 countries spanning over a period of five decades (1960–2013), the present study sought to explore the impact of per capita gross domestic product (per capita GDP) on the DPI ratio and the underlying factors responsible for the relationship. Results: Our result suggests that per capita GDP followed a reverse U-shaped relationship with DPI. Moreover, the relative improvements in higher mobility roads as compared to improvements in higher accessibility roads, motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio, percentage of population living in an urban area, infant mortality rate, and the percentage of population below 15 years of age and above 64 years of age contributed to this relationship. Practical Applications: This implies that, at lower level of economic growth where road deaths exceed road injuries, countries should implement low-cost measures to combat road deaths cases. Such measures include mandating wearing of quality helmets and daytime running headlights for motorcycles. On the other hand, at higher level of economic growth where road injuries surpass road deaths, countries are encouraged to devote more resources to improving medical technology and services to treat road injury victims, mandating seatbelt use, as well as enhancing and promoting public transportation service.     

上海市街道灰尘中PBDEs的含量水平、来源及组成特性

以上海市为研究区域,对16个监测点的街道灰尘中多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)的含量水平、来源和组成特性进行研究。于2013年11月份采集16个街道灰尘样品,对其进行索氏提取和层析净化等前处理后采用GC-MS对12种待测PBDEs目标化合物进行定量定性检测分析。结果表明:12种PBDEs化合物全部被检出,16个采集点采集的街道灰尘中PBDEs质量比在12.046~82.835 ng/g,平均质量比为38.428 ng/g,不但高于苏州、无锡、南通等地的街道灰尘样本,而且远高于上海市土壤中PBDEs质量比;通过层次聚类分析得出上海市中心城区的PBDEs污染来源基本相同,主要为含有PBDEs产品在使用过程中PBDEs的释放,各郊区PBDEs污染物来源则各不相同,主要为各郊区工业区生产过程中PBDEs的释放;主要污染物有BED-47和BDE-49;监测点街道灰尘中PBDEs的质量比分布差别较大,各个监测点PBDEs的污染还处于不断变化中。     

道路条件安全性分析

对道路上发生的相关交通事故情况与道路条件安全性的关系进行了分析,对比分析了大量国内外事故绝对数、事故率等统计数据.结果表明,简单的交通事故的绝对数反映的道路条件安全性不够准确;交通事故的事故率能够很好地反映道路路面、道路线形、道路横断面、道路交叉口以及道路照明等道路条件的安全性;其中路面摩阻系数是道路条件安全性的一个重要表征指标;道路平纵曲线的重合对道路条件安全性的影响较大.揭示了道路交通事故多发与各种不利道路条件之间存在的内在关系,证明了道路条件的安全性可以用道路上发生的相关交通事故情况来分析与评价的可行性.     

Cycle helmets and road casualties in the UK

OBJECTIVES: Bicycle helmets have been advocated as a means of reducing injury among cyclists. This assertion, derived from a number of case controlled studies carried out in hospitals, conflicts with results from population level studies. In the Western countries where these case control studies have been performed, it appears that cycling morbidity is dominated by sports and leisure users. The generalizability of studies on helmet effectiveness in relation to utilitarian transport cycling is not clear. This study therefore considers population level data for reported road traffic injuries of cyclists and pedestrians. METHODS: Generalized linear and generalized additive models were used to investigate patterns of pedestrian and cyclist injury in the UK based on the police reported "Stats 19" data. Comparisons have been made with survey data on helmet wearing rates to examine evidence for the effectiveness of cycle helmets on overall reported road casualties. While it must be acknowledged that police casualty reports are prone to under-reporting, particularly of incidents involving lower severity casualties the attractive feature of these data are that by definition they only concern road casualties. RESULTS: There is little evidence in UK from the subset of road collisions recorded by the police corresponding to the overall benefits that have been predicted by the results of a number of published case controlled studies. In particular, no association could be found between differing patterns of helmet wearing rates and casualty rates for adults and children. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence that cycle helmets reduce the overall cyclist injury burden at the population level in the UK when data on road casualties is examined. This finding, supported by research elsewhere could simply be due to cycle helmets having little potential to reduce the overall transport-related cycle injury burden. Equally, it could be a manifestation of the "ecological fallacy" where it could be conceived that the existence of various sub-groups of cyclists, with different risk profiles, may need to be accounted for in understanding the difference between predicted and realised casualty patterns.     

Safety climate factors, group differences and safety behaviour in road construction

This study determines the factor structure of safety climate within a road construction organization using a modified version of the safety climate questionnaire (SCQ). It also investigates the relationship between safety climate and safety performance. The SCQ was administered to 192 employees from two districts and in two job categories — construction and maintenance. A behavioural observation measure of safety performance was also developed. Factor analysis derived six factors, which were similar to those obtained in an earlier study using the SCQ. Differences in the safety climate of job sub-groups were found on two of the factors. No differences between the two districts were found. No relationship was found between safety climate and the safety performance measure. While identical safety climate factors cannot apply to all organizations, some general safety climate factors may emerge. Discussion focuses upon the measurement of safety climate.     

广州城市路面径流COD污染特征分析

2006年4-7月,通过在广州市两条交通主干线上设点监测、采样分析,对城市路面径流COD污染特征进行分析.结果表明,市区和郊区路面径流COD浓度均超过<污水综合排放标准>规定的二级排放阈值;城市不同地区的COD负荷有较人差异,市区路面径流COD浓度高丁郊区,COD污染物质积累速度高于郊区;雨前干燥期是路面COD物质积累的重要影响因子;路面径流中COD浓度随降雨-径流过程呈现规律性变化,且径流COD与SS浓度具有显著相关关系;城市路面径流COD存在初期冲刷现象.     

On prediction in road safety

Prediction is about potential outcomes: what will happen if and what would have happened if. The first question arises when safety targets are set, the second when the effect of an intervention on safety is to be evaluated. There are many ways to predict. For the same data different prediction methods produce different predictions. What targets are set and what estimates of intervention effect are produced will depend on what method of prediction is chosen. Therefore one has to determine what method tends to predict best. To do so empirically one asks what method would have predicted best had it been applied in the past and then one assumes, inductively, that the same would apply in the future. Quantitative measures of prediction quality are suggested and it is shown how these measures of prediction quality allow one to determine which of two prediction methods should be preferred.The suggested approach was applied to two data sets: The time series of motor vehicle accident fatalities in Province A and in Province B. On the basis of this analysis one may draw tentative conclusions for these jurisdictions and the methods tested; one can say what method seems preferable, what is the average size of bias than needs to be corrected and how accurate is the prediction likely to be. Broader conclusions will emerge once many additional methods of prediction are applied to data from many other jurisdictions and pertaining to a variety of circumstances.     

Health burden of serious road injuries in the Netherlands

Background: The consequences of injuries in terms of disabilities and health burden are relevant for policy making. This article provides an overview of the current knowledge on this topic and discusses the health burden of serious road injuries in The Netherlands.

Methods: The overview of current knowledge on disabilities following a road crash is based on a literature review. The health burden of serious road injuries is quantified in terms of years lived with disability (YLD), by combining incidence data from the Dutch hospital discharge register with information about temporary and lifelong disability.

Results: Literature shows that road traffic injuries can have a major impact on victims' physical and psychological well-being and functioning. Reported proportions of people with disability vary between 11 and 80% depending on the type of casualties, time elapsed since the crash, and the health impacts considered. Together, all casualties involving serious injuries in The Netherlands in 2009 account for about 38,000 YLD, compared to 25,000 years of life lost (YLL) of fatalities. Ninety percent of the burden of injury is due to lifelong consequences that are experienced by 20% of all those seriously injured in road accidents. Lower leg injuries and head injuries represent a high share in the total burden of injury as have cyclists that are injured in a crash without a motorized vehicle. Pedestrians and powered 2-wheeler users show the highest burden of injury per casualty.

Conclusion: Given their major impacts and contribution to health burden, road policy making should also be aimed at reducing the number of serious road injuries and limiting the resulting health impacts.     

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of tunnels, current approaches in the road tunnel field have limitations to model organizational aspects, software behavior and the adaptation of the tunnel system over time. This paper reviews the aforementioned limitations and highlights the need to enhance the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures with a complementary approach that links the organizational factors to the operational and technical issues, analyze software behavior and models the dynamics of the tunnel system. To achieve this objective, this paper examines the scope for introducing a safety assessment method which is based on the systems thinking paradigm and draws upon the STAMP model. The method proposed is demonstrated through a case study of a tunnel ventilation system and the results show that it has the potential to identify scenarios that encompass both the technical system and the organizational structure. However, since the method does not provide quantitative estimations of risk, it is recommended to be used as a complementary approach to the traditional risk assessments rather than as an alternative.     

Embedding the human factor in road tunnel risk analysis

The paper is focusing on road tunnel safety and builds upon the Directive 2004/54/EC launched by the European Commission; the latter sets basic requirements and suggests the implementation of risk assessment in several tunnel cases apart from technical measures imposed on the basis of tunnel structural and operational characteristics. Since the EU Directive does not indicate the method for performing risk assessment, a wide range of methods have been proposed, most of them based on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Although the majority of current road tunnel QRAs assess physical aspects of the tunnel system and consider several hazards concerning the transportation of dangerous goods through a tunnel, they do not take into account, sufficiently, several organizational and human-related factors that can greatly affect the overall safety level of these critical infrastructures. To cope with this limitation this paper proposes a fuzzy logic system based on CREAM method for human reliability analysis (Hollnagel, 1998) in order to provide more sophisticated estimations of the tunnel operator's performance in safety critical situations. It is deduced that a human reliability analysis component to analyze operator performance, like the fuzzy system proposed here, is important for risk analysts. Consideration of organizational and human factors will enhance risk analysts’ studies and highlight the uncertainty related to human performance variability.     

Estimation of the real number of road casualties in Europe

Within this research, the police under-reporting of non-fatal road accident casualties in eight European countries was examined by means of a common methodology applied in each country. Eight national studies were carried out using the common methodology, and this allowed to prepare valid estimates of the level of under-reporting of non-fatal road casualties in Europe in a disaggregate form (namely by country, road user type and injury severity). This provided an insight into the variation of road casualty under-reporting in Europe. Moreover, a new common definition for road casualty severity was proposed that makes use of internationally recognised medical standards. This was established by examining two different injury severity standards, the casualty’s length of stay in hospital and the casualty’s maximum AIS score. The under-reporting coefficients developed within this research were applied to estimate the real number of non-fatal serious road accident casualties, according to the new proposed common definition. For almost all countries, the actual number of serious casualties according to the new proposed definition was found lower than the number of police-recorded serious casualties. With the newly estimated number of serious casualties, the values of the ratio of serious casualties to fatalities are much less widespread across countries. These remaining differences can thus be attributed to real differences in road safety between the countries, after having controlled for the different under-reporting levels and injury severity definitions.     

Benchmarking road safety performances of countries

In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries’ ‘good practices’, it is often helpful to compare one’s own safety situation with that of other countries. In a number of projects tools have been developed for such comparisons. These tools range from simple ratings of countries on their safety outcomes, such as the annual number of fatalities per capita or per kilometre driven by (motor)vehicles to more comprehensive comparisons.These comparisons not only show differences in safety between countries, but to a certain extent also explain such differences in terms of their safety background and measures taken. Finally, tools have been defined to support road safety policy makers in developing possible safety measures or actions. Procedures for such complex safety comparisons have been developed and tested in several so-called SUNflower studies.This promising approach can be further developed into standard procedures for safety comparisons between all countries in the European Union, and other countries worldwide. This paper wishes to outline the development of such standards for the benchmarking of road safety and safety trends as well as procedures for quantifying safety performances of countries.Starting point of this conceptual framework is the so-called SUNflower-pyramid in which three types of indicators are distinguished. The first one of these, the road safety performance indicator, is called an outcome indicator and is based on the number of killed and injured road users. The second indicator type indicates the quality of the implementation of road safety policies: the implementation performance indicators. The third type of indicator indicates the quality of response in policy documents to improve road safety (policy performance indicator). The three types of indicators are embedded in a policy context: the structure and culture of a country, which are considered as background variables.This paper sets out to describe the framework for the development of a comprehensive set of indicators to benchmark road safety performances of countries or of sub-national jurisdictions. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining such indicators and if combined, how to aggregate how different indicators in one composite performance index. It is argued to group countries in different classes with more or less comparable countries. Different procedures are used for this grouping. The results are promising and it is recommended to work with classes of countries.     

关于区域环境保护政策的思考

本从通过分析我国环境保护政策存在的缺口和目前对这种理念的研究进展，并根据环境问题本身的特性以及环境问题产生的背景差异提出重新确立环境保护政策的调控范围的观点，并提出了这种观点对于对我国环境保护政策以及环境保护工作的重要意义。