粮食、石油和气候变化

粮食、石油和气候变化似乎是＂风马牛不相及＂的问题,但是善于制造问题的人类,把这些本来就十分复杂的问题纠缠在一起：为了应对气候变化,就必须减排温室气体,为了减排温室气体需要减少石油消耗,为了减少石油消耗就用粮 食去做酒精替代石油。看起来科学家们和政治家们的选择都是合理的,因为减少石油消耗可减缓气候变化,而减缓气候变化可以增加粮食产量,维持人类的可持续发展。     

气候变化、能源与环境

<正>综述过去30年来,中国经济的飞速发展使得数以亿计的人们摆脱了贫困,在世界发展史上写下了前所未有的一页,也为全球经济发展创造了巨大的动力。然而,伴随着经济上的成功,中国也付出了巨大的代价,出现了环境恶化、能源安全问题、资源过度消耗等影响社会可持     

气候变化对景观和区域过程的影响及其对气候系统的反馈

北极生态系统的生物和物理过程会在不同的时间、空间尺度上对地球生态系统产生反馈作用,并与之相互影响.气候变化对北极地区的影响及其对全球气候系统的反馈主要存在着四种潜在机制反照率改变、生态系统对温室气体的排放或吸收、甲烷类温室气体的排放、影响海洋暖流淡水量的增长.这些反馈机制在某种程度上是由生态系统的分布和特征,尤其是大规模植被区域变化来控制的.通过少量全年的CO2通量测量表明,目前在地理分布上碳源区要比碳汇区要多.根据目前现有的关于CH4排放源地信息表明,景观规模上的CH4排放量对北极地区的温室效应平衡至关重要.北极地区的能量和水量平衡在变化的气候下,也是一个很重要的反馈机制.植被密度以及分布范围的增加会导致反射率的下降,因而会使地表吸收更多的能量.其效果可能会抵消由于极地沙漠地带向极地苔原带的的转化,或极地苔原带向极地森林带的转化,而造成的植被总净初级生产力碳沉降能力的提高而引起的负反馈.永久冻土带的退化对示踪气体动力学有着很复杂的影响.在不连续的永久冻土带地区,升温将会导致其完全消失.依赖于当地水文条件,温室气体排放可能由于气候环境变的干燥或湿润而使得其通量有所变化.总的来说,影响反馈的各种过程复杂的相互作用,以及这些过程随着时间地点的变化,加之数据的缺乏,又会在陆地生态系统气候变化对气候系统产生反馈作用的净效应估计上,产生许多的不确定性,这种不确定性将会影响到一些反馈的大小和方向.     

气候变化、中国的崛起和全球恐怖主义

这个不确定的时代该如何去应对．许多活跃的知识分子竞相提出自己的策略和建议——尤其是近两年．各种观点或冷静或激扬,交相错映,端的是热闹非凡。地理学者哈姆·迪伯利的《何以地理学至关紧要：美国面临的三大挑战：气候变化、中国的起和全球恐怖主义》一书亦是此类著作。它从地缘政治学的角度出发．提出了美国当前所面临的三大挑战．并认为．倘若不能成功解决这三大挑战．美国势必将在世界新格局的竞争中败下阵来。     

关于气候风险、环境危机与能源安全的思考

气候变化引起的极端天气和突发事件增多,对人类社会造成的风险越来越大。本文从澳大利亚森林大火引起的环境污染、美国得克萨斯州暴风雪引起的大面积停电和能源供应链断裂、地震和海啸引起的日本福岛核电站核泄漏事故而产生的能源短缺等事件入手,分析由极端天气等引发的环境危机和能源安全问题,探讨后疫情时期如何应对气候危机和突发事件,建立安全稳定的能源系统,实现碳达峰和碳中和目标下的能源结构调整。本文的主要观点:应当加强对气候风险和突发事件对环境影响和能源安全的研究,特别是对核电和可再生能源安全性的研究,强化能源系统应对气候风险与突发事件的能力;随着可再生能源的快速发展和渗透率的提高,由此引起电网波动风险增大,应当加强尽早研究传统能源向可再生能源转轨及其可能出现的新问题,积极推进分布式能源和电力数字化,灵活应对和减缓突发事件对能源供应链的冲击;中国要实现碳达峰和碳中和的目标,必将把能源结构从煤炭为主转变为以可再生能源为主,应当充分认识这次颠覆性的能源革命的艰巨性、复杂性和风险性,并在保证能源安全的前提下,制定切实可行的能源转型路线图。     

The Monitoring,Evaluation, Reporting and Verification of Climate Change Projects

Because of concerns with the growing threat of global climate change from increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, the United States and other countries are implementing, by themselves or in cooperation with one or more other nations, climate change projects. These projects will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or sequester carbon, and will also result in non-GHG benefits (i.e., environmental, economic, and social benefits). Monitoring, evaluating, reporting, and verifying (MERV) guidelines are needed for these projects to accurately determine their net GHG, and other, benefits. Implementation of MERV guidelines is also intended to: (1) increase the reliability of data for estimating GHG benefits; (2) provide real-time data so that mid-course corrections can be made; (3) introduce consistency and transparency across project types and reporters; and (4) enhance the credibility of the projects with stakeholders. In this paper, we review the issues involved in MERV activities. We identify several topics that future protocols and guidelines need to address, such as: (1) establishing a credible baseline; (2) accounting for impacts outside project boundaries through leakage; (3) net GHG reductions and other benefits; (4) precision of measurement; (5) MERV frequency and the persistence (sustainability) of savings, emissions reduction, and carbon sequestration; (6) reporting by multiple project participants; (7) verification of GHG reduction credits; (8) uncertainty and risk; (9) institutional capacity in conducting MERV; and (10) the cost of MERV.     

Climate change implications for the nest site selection process and subsequent hatching success of a green turtle population

Sandy beach habitat where sea turtles nest will be affected by multiple climate change impacts. Before these impacts occur, knowledge of how nest site selection and hatching success vary with beach microhabitats is needed to inform managers on how to protect suitable habitats and prepare for scientifically valid mitigation measures at beaches around the world. At a highly successful green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookery at Akumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico, we measured microhabitat characteristics along the beach crawl (rejected sites) and related nest site conditions (selected sites) to subsequent hatching success rates for 64 nesting events. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report environmental data along the nesting crawl for a green turtle population and the first to use natural breaks in the data to describe their preferred habitat ranges. Our results indicate that turtles were likely using a combination of cues to find nest sites, mainly higher elevations and lower sand surface temperatures (Kruskal-Wallis test, H?=?19.84, p?<?0.001; H?=?10.78, p?<?0.001). Hatching success was significantly and negatively correlated to sand temperature at cloaca depth (Spearman’s ρ?=??0.27, p?=?0.04). Indeed, the preferred range for cloaca sand temperatures at the nest site (26.3–27.5 °C) had significantly higher hatching success rates compared to the highest temperature range (Tukey HSD?=?0.47, p?=?0.05). Sand temperatures at various depths were intercorrelated, and surface and cloaca depth sand temperatures were correlated to air temperature (ρ?=?0.70, p?=?0.00; ρ?=?0.26, p?=?0.04). Therefore, rising air temperatures could alter sand temperature cues for suitable nest sites, preferred nest site ranges, and produce uneven sex ratios or lethal incubating temperatures. Elevation cues and preferred ranges (1.4–2.5 m) may also be affected by sea level rise, risking inundation of nests.     

Climate Modelling,Uncertainty and Responses to Predictions of Change

Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e. relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability. Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses. Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues. Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate changes.     

传播信息、激励行动,解决气候危机

作为传播气候变化相关知识的小使者,泰勒&#183;弗兰西斯（Taylor Francis）在美国已经向几千人发表过演讲,所到之处,好评如潮。《美国纽约时报》、《时代周刊》等知名媒体都对其做过相关报道。     

Water,Climate, and Development Issues in the Amu Darya Basin

Before 1960, the Aral Sea was the fourth-largest body of water on Earth. Today, it is on the edge of extinction. The Sea is fed by Central Asias two major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, with a flow, respectively, of about 70 and 35 cubic kilometers per year on average. Today, the Aral story is quite well known to environmental groups within and outside the region. The Amu Daryas watercourse serves as an international border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan and between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The Amu Darya crisscrosses Turkmenistan and, for the most part, traverses the length of Uzbekistan and its subregion known as Karakalpakstan. Although an upstream riparian country, Afghanistan has been at war for a couple of decades and in-country conflict remains. As a result, it has had little opportunity to lay claim to its legitimate share of Amu Darya water. With an end to the Russo-Afghan war, an end to the Taliban regime, and with international involvement to bring a semblance of peace and stability to the country in the conflict-laden post-Taliban period, the new Afghan government will surely lay claim to a significant share of Amu Darya water as it reconstructs the nations agricultural sector. This paper discusses issues related to the problems and prospects for sustainable development in the Amu Darya basin.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.     

Climate anomalies, Indonesian vegetation fires and terrestrial carbon emissions

There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO₂, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO₂ growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion.     

Legal constraints, environmental variability, and the limits of innovative environmental governance

Using CALFED as a case study, this article explores problems with a conventional conceptual framework for understanding environmental crises. That framework, which both derives from and influences legal regimes, posits that environmental managers should fulfill the protective requirements of environmental laws, but should discern exactly where the brink of non-compliance lies and should allow or even facilitate resource consumption right up to that perceived edge. In contexts like CALFED, where environmental conditions are uncertain and institutions are unavoidably somewhat rigid and inflexible, that approach will function poorly, and this article therefore articulates an alternative conceptual approach capable of improving the reliability of resource allocation patterns. That alternative approach posits that in conditions of scarcity, environmental uncertainty, and rigidly constraining environmental laws, the intensity and reliability of resource use are likely to be inversely proportional, and reducing the intensity of consumptive use will tend to increase the stability and reliability of consumptive patterns.     

Climate change, aerobiology, and public health in the Northeast United States

The epidemiological implications with respect to climate change and public health (e.g., shifts in disease vectors) are beginning to be acknowledged. Less recognized however, are the potential links between climate, plant biology and public health. In addition to being affected by climate (e.g., temperature determines plant range), carbon dioxide (CO₂) represents the raw material needed for photosynthesis and its rapid increase in the atmosphere is expected to stimulate plant growth. While there are a number of means by which plant biology intersects with human health (e.g., plant nutrition), one of the most widely recognized is aerobiology; specifically, the ability of plants to both produce pollen and to serve as a substrate for molds/fungi (e.g., sporulation). The current review represents an initial attempt to coalesce what is known regarding the likely impacts of climate/CO₂ on plant pollen/fungal spores and associated allergic disease that are, or could be, specific to the Northeast United States. Although the current results indicate a number of potentially unfavorable effects, we wish to stress that the current data are based on a small number of experiments. Additional data are crucial to both reduce epidemiological uncertainty and to derive a robust set of mitigation / adaptation strategies.     

A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper.     

气候变暖的风险与对策

全球气候变暖，给人类社会带来了巨大的风险。通过阐述气候变暖的源与汇。回顾并分析了前、后１００年气候变暖的趋势及风险危害，在此基础上提出了气候变暖的风险对策。     

石化地区的气候与污染

借助现有气象资料，剖析我地的气候概况与污染特征，浅述了两者关系．     

金融气候双重危机

一些人认为,自工业革命以来,各国所呈现的经济快速增长的态势还将会持续下去,但这是不可能的。现在有两个问题已经显现出来了。烟囱工业和土地开发严重影响了全球大气环境。试图在控制污染时仍旧保持预期生活方式的模式已经导致了指数化债务不受控制的井喷。