美中能源与气候变化合作路线图发布 协作应对气候变化的共同挑战

为了推动美中两国就气候变化问题加强合作,2月9日,美国两家民间机构亚洲协会美中关系中心和皮尤全球气候变化中心在北京发布了<共同的挑战,协作应对--中美能源与气候变化合作路线图>.     

气候变化、能源与环境

<正>综述过去30年来,中国经济的飞速发展使得数以亿计的人们摆脱了贫困,在世界发展史上写下了前所未有的一页,也为全球经济发展创造了巨大的动力。然而,伴随着经济上的成功,中国也付出了巨大的代价,出现了环境恶化、能源安全问题、资源过度消耗等影响社会可持     

气候变化：质疑与挑战

哥本哈根气候变化大会以后,气候变化受关注程度达到顶峰,科学、经济、政治等各界人士都开始从自身角度发表对气候变化的看法和质疑,尤其是近期出现的多次＂气候门＂事件,波澜迭起,使气候变化研究经历了有史以来最大的挑战和质疑。本文就当前争论最激烈的问题,包括气候是否在变暖、气候变暖的原因、气候变暖的影响及是否要发展低碳经济等进行了讨论和分析。     

应对气候变化的能源战略与对策

气候变化是当今国际社会高度关注的全球性问题，也是能源领域的热点问题之一。全球气候变化主要是由于人类大量燃烧化石燃料所排放的二氧化碳等温室气体引起的。随着科学界对二氧化碳等温室气体排放与气候变化之间相互关系认识的深入，要求国际社会采取对策，努力限制或减少二氧化碳等温室气体排放的呼声也越来越高，气候变化问题已日益成为影响各国制定国家能源战略的重要因素。[编者按]     

应对气候变化的能源战略与对策

气候变化是当今国际社会高度关注的全球性问题,也是能源领域的热点问题之一.全球气候变化主要是由于人类大量燃烧化石燃料所排放的二氧化碳等温室气体引起的.随着科学界对二氧化碳等温室气体排放与气候变化之间相互关系认识的深入,要求国际社会采取对策,努力限制或减少二氧化碳等温室气体排放的呼声也越来越高,气候变化问题已日益成为影响各国制定国家能源战略的重要因素.     

我国气候变化司法治理的挑战与应对策略

在不断加强司法服务与保障国家气候治理行动的背景下,我国在应对气候变化的司法政策供给和司法实践经验等方面已初步取得成效。然而,我国气候变化司法治理工作也面临着一些挑战,如司法权能扩张带来的新风险、司法适用的规范体系不完备、司法裁判的思维方法社科化等。为防范司法应对气候变化走向“非理性”的道路,未来我国气候变化的司法治理应当重视树立温和司法能动主义理念,规范建构下司法的有限作为,以及裁判过程中的司法方法重整。     

生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心重点学科简介——能源、环境与气候变化

正生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心一直致力于能源环境气候领域的探索与实践,特别是在污染物与温室气体协同控制、气候变化国际谈判、大气环境管理等方面,为生态环境部重大决策出台和重要文件起草提供了理论和技术支撑,开展相关研究数十项,出版中英文专著10余部,公开发表文章100余篇,其中10余篇研究成果获得国务院和部领导批示。     

发展中国家的生物能源:问题与挑战

瑞典科学院Beijer研究所能源生态学家G.r.Goodman教授提出,发展中国家短缺木柴燃料是因多种互相制约的复杂因素(环境、经济、人口统计、社会政治、文化等种种因素)而引起的,具有当地特点,不能一概而论。解决的办法必须包括:在城市要争取必要的时间以便改变烧木柴为利用电、煤油和煤气罐,在农村地区鼓励农民利用土地营造薪炭林。不     

Nuclear power and post-2012 energy and climate change policies

At present there is no binding agreement (at a global level) to address the risk of anthropogenic climate change after 2012. Disagreements abound with respect to a post-2012 climate change agreement, on issues such as economic development, policy criteria, environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, equity, dynamic flexibility, complementarity, enforceability and so on. One such disagreement is whether or not nuclear power should play a role in a post-2012 climate change agreement. This qualitative analysis explores the conditions under which nuclear power could contribute to addressing climate change in post-2012 architectures. It reveals that – given the right framework conditions – some architectures, like ‘cap and trade’ regimes or ‘policies and measures’ can improve the competitiveness of nuclear power plants, while others are unlikely to provide incentives for nuclear energy development in the short to medium term, such as adaptation and technology cooperation. Overall, the study concludes that post-2012 climate change policy should aim at providing policy flexibility without compromising technology flexibility. For example, the provision of long-term commitment periods has the potential to enable better investments in existing low-carbon technologies but stifle the policy flexibility that political decision makers are often keen to retain so that they can respond more quickly to new scientific evidence or advances in clean technology development.     

The impact of climate change on global energy use

Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.

     

Challenge of global climate change: Prospects for a new energy paradigm

Perspectives on the challenge posed by potential future climate change are presented including a discussion of prospects for carbon capture followed either by sequestration or reuse including opportunities for alternatives to the use of oil in the transportation sector. The potential for wind energy as an alternative to fossil fuel energy as a source of electricity is outlined including the related opportunities for cost effective curtailment of future growth in emissions of CO₂.     

全球季风动力学与气候变化

本文结合现代季风和古季风研究成果对全球季风进行了一个全面回顾,并引入了一个全球季风的新定义,该定义考虑了三维分布、终极成因,强调了季节性气压梯度变化对季风环流的影响,并同时使用了环流与降水来描述季风强度。我们在从构造到季节内的宽广时间尺度上来考察全球季风气候变化。全球季风的性质包括全球不均一性、区域差异性、季节性、准周期性、不规则性、不稳定性和穿时性。对全球季风动力学来说,太阳辐射、地球轨道参数、下垫面性质和海-陆-气相互作用十分重要。本文还讨论了季风变率在不同时间尺度上的主要驱动因子以及多时间尺度之间的动力学关系。自然过程与人类活动影响对我们理解未来全球季风行为都非常重要。