SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

THE FLOOD OF '96 AND ITS SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The meteorology flood hydroclimatolog and socioeconomic impacts of the Flood of January 1996 in the Susquehanna River Basin are explored. The analysis explains how an unusual storm system brought high humidities, high temperatures, strong winds, and heavy rain to the basin. The rapid melt of the deep snowpack, combined with the heavy rainfall, produced the sudden release of large volumes of water. Because the ground surface was frozen or saturated, this water moved primarily as overland flow. Thus, the flood waters were not restricted to areas immediately adjacent to stream channels and, consequently, some of the largest impacts were on people, property, and infrastructure in areas not normally prone to flooding. Socioeconomic patterns of flooding over time and space are investigated to put this flood into context and to highlight its impacts. The analysis concludes that if such overland flooding is a more common feature of climate change, then the current vulnerability to this form of flooding and its economic implications must be considered carefully.     

CHANNELIZATION EFFECTS ON OBION RIVER FLOODING,WESTERN TENNESSEE1

ABSTRACT: Much of the Obion River in western Tennessee was channelized into the 1960s. Stage data from three stream-flow gaging stations on the Obion were used to determine how channelization affected flood frequency and annual maximum stage. Channelization affected the upper and lower Obion River differently. Flooding has become infrequent on the upper Obion River since channelization, even during the winter and spring which is the wettest time of year. In contrast, except for the winter months, there has been little effect on flood frequency on the lower Obion River where stage is highly dependent on the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River often backs up and floods the Obion River more than 50 km above its mouth and may contribute to flooding at an even greater distance upstream by reducing the water-surface gradient and slowing discharge. Channelization on the upper section of the river and many of the small tributaries has increased flow efficiency, but has also caused channel erosion and downstream deposition, reducing the cross-sectional channel area and possibly contributing to downstream flooding. Maximum annual stages at the upper and lower Obion River changed little. Therefore, the maximum surface area, submerged at least once each year, has been unaffected by channelization.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on water yield are examined in the Upper Wind River Basin. This is a high‐elevation, mountain basin with a snowfall/snowmelt dominated stream‐flow hydrograph. A variety of physiographic conditions are represented in the rangeland, coniferous forests, and high‐elevation alpine regions. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model the baseline input time series data and climate change scenarios. Five hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, CO₂, radiation, and humidity) are examined using sensitivity tests of individual and coupled variables with a constant change and coupled variables with a monthly change. Results indicate that the most influential variable on annual water yield is precipitation; and, the most influential variable on the timing of streamflow is temperature. Carbon dioxide, radiation, and humidity each noticeably impact water yield, but less significantly. The coupled variable analyses represent a more realistic climate change regime and reflect the combined response of the basin to each variable; for example, increased temperature offsets the effects of increased precipitation and magnifies the effects of decreased precipitation. This paper shows that the hydrologic response to climate change depends largely on the hydroclimatic variables examined and that each variable has a unique effect (e.g., magnitude, timing) on water yield.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERSHED PLANNING IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: This paper draws on interviews with Washington State Watershed Planning Leads (Planning Leads) and interactions with local watershed planning units to identify factors that may influence the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning efforts in Washington State. These factors include the interest of individual planning unit members in climate change; Planning Lead familiarity with climate impacts; the influence of trust, leadership, and “genetic knowledge” on planning units; and perceptions of strategic gain. The research also identifies aspects of the planning process that may create opportunities for addressing climate impacts in future planning. These aspects include continuation of watershed planning units after plans are developed; commitment to updating watershed plans; recognition of climate impacts in planning documentation; dedicated incentive funding; and the availability of hydrologic modeling tools for assessing hydrologic impacts. Additional types of technical assistance that could support integration of climate impacts are also identified. It is hoped that the insight provided by this analysis will help individuals involved in stakeholder‐based watershed planning recognize the various dynamics potentially affecting the inclusion of climate change in watershed planning and in doing so, contribute to the development of planning approaches and tools that will support local efforts to adapt to climate impacts.     

THE EFFECTS OF MINE ACID ON THE POND RIVER WATERSHED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: H₂SO₄ (sulfuric acid) is formed by a chemical process that occurs in unreclaimed coal mines. The highly toxic acid then flows into the lower swamp areas where it causes considerable damage to the ecosystem. The major effect of the acid is the mass destruction of thousands of trees and various other phreatophytic plants. The contamination is so serious that most of the wildlife has migrated out of the affected area of the swamp in order to survive. Certain geological features such as coal bearing monadanocks make the area somewhat sensitive to mining activities and related geologic hazards. New methods of mine acid abatement make the concept of mass reclamation more realistic than at any time in the past. The constant annihilation of swamp life and processes emphasizes the urgent need for reclamation of the swamp.     

A RETROSPECTIVE BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A retrospective benefit-cost analysis of major water resources projects in the Cumberland River basin was conducted. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' projects selected were Dale Hollow, Wolf Creek, Center Hill, and J. Percy Priest Reservoirs. The ex-post performance of the evaluated reservoirs were compared to the ex-ante estimates. Benefits and costs for each project were deflated to their base year and respective average annual values for each of these components were calculated. An ex-post benefit-cost ratio was determined for each project, as well as the combined system. The benefit-cost ratio for each project surpassed unity. The actual ratio as compared to the ex-ante estimate for each project is as follows: Dale Hollow, 1.24 to 1.46; Wolf Creek, 1.40 to 1.53; Center Hill, 1.17 to 2.02; and J. Percy Priest, 1.45 to 1.6. The internal rate of return was also determined for each project. The results obtained for each project are tabulated and discussed with consideration given to factors effecting the economic evaluation of the projects.     

MANAGING THE COLORADO RIVER IN A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT AN EVALUATION OF INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a summary of the findings and recommendations of the studies of severe, sustained drought reported in this special issue. The management facilities and institutions were found to be effective in protecting consumptive water users against drought, but much less effective in protecting nonconsumptive uses. Changes in intrastate water management were found to be effective in reducing the monetary value of damages, through reallocating shortages to low-valued uses, while only water banking and water marketing, among the possible interstate rule changes, were similarly effective. Players representing the basin states and the federal government in three gaming experiments were unable to agree upon and effect major changes in operating rules. The conclusions are (1) that nonconsumptive water uses are highly vulnerable to drought, (2) that consumptive uses are well-protected, (3) that drought risk is greatest in the Upper Basin, (4) that the Lower Basin suffers from chronic water shortage but bears little drought risk, (5) that opportunities exist for win-win rule changes, (6) that such rule changes are extremely difficult to make, and (7) that intrastate drought management is very effective ^m in reducing potential damages.     

MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC 2XCO2 CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATION APPLIED TO AN OREGON WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A 2xCO2 climate and runoff in the Upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon is simulated using a mesoscale atmospheric model and a watershed model that incorporates spatial variability of the runoff process. A nine‐year control climate monthly time series provides a benchmark for assessing changes related to a warmer and wetter 2xCO2 climate. Potential evapotranspiration is increased by 23 percent and snow water equivalent is reduced by 59 percent in the 2xCO2 climate. Annual runoff increases by 23 percent, while November runoff increases by 55 percent. The average maximum monthly runoff is in May for both the control climate and 2xCO2 climate, but in five of the nine years the monthly maximum runoff for the 2xCO2 climate occurs two to five months earlier than for the control climate. The minimum runoff month is one to five months earlier in the 2xCO2 climate in seven of the nine years, and the month of average minimum runoff is March in the control climate and November in the 2xCO2 climate. Since precipitation is greatest in December in both the control climate and 2xCO2 climate, the earlier maximum and minimum runoff for a 2xCO2 climate indicates greater watershed sensitivity to temperature than to precipitation.     

LOW DISCHARGE PERIODS OF RIVERS IN THE UPPER VISTULA RIVER BASIN,POLAND1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for determining low discharge periods of rivers based on threshold values defined in terms of MEAN OF MINIMUM SUMMER (WINTER) DISCHARGES. The method is used to determine summer low flow periods in the Vistula River basin in Poland. Analysis is based on daily discharge data for 84 basins of the Upper Vistula River which was collected by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Economy.     

WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS OF THE HALIFAX RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An application of the receiving water block of the EPA Storm Water management Model (SWMM) is presented to quantify water quality impacts and evaluated control alternatives for a 208 areawide waste water management plan in Volusia Country, Florida. The water quality impact analyses were conducted for dry-and wet-weather conditions to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorides, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Halifax Rivers, Florida, a 40-kilometer-long tidal estuary located on the Atlantic coast of Florida near Daytona Beach. Dry-weather analysis was performed using conventional 7-day, 10-year low flow conditions to determine a set of unit transfer coefficients which estimate the pollutant concentration transferred to any point in the estuary from a constant unit discharge of pollutants at the existing waste water treatment plant outfall locations. Wet-weather analysis was performed by continuous simulation of a typical three-month summer wet season in Florida. Three-month cumulative duration curves of DO, TN and TP concentrations were constructed to estimate the relative value of controlling urban runoff of waste water treatment plant effluent on the Halifax River. The three-month continuous simulation indicated that the greatest change in DO, TN, and TP duration curves is possible by abatement of waste water treatment plant pollution.     

REGULATED RIVER MODELING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Great Plains of the United States, drained primanly by the Missouri River, are very sensitive to shifts in climate. The six main stem dams on the Missouri River control more than one‐half of the nearly 1.5 million square kilometer basin and can store three times the annual inflow from upstream. The dams are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers using a Master Manual that describes system priorities and benefits. The complex operational rules were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool computer model (SWAT). SWAT is a distributed parameter rainfall‐runoff model capable of simulating the transpiration suppression effects of CO₂ enrichment. The new reservoir algorithms were calibrated using a 25‐year long historic record of basin climate and discharge records. Results demonstrate that it is possible to incorporate the operation of a highly regulated river system into a complex rainfall‐runoff model. The algorithms were then tested using extreme climate scenarios indicative of a prolonged drought, a short drought, and a ten percent increase in basin‐wide precipitation. It is apparent that the rules for operating the reservoirs will likely require modification if, for example, upper‐basin precipitation were to increase only ten percent under changed climate conditions.     

ECONOMICS OF CONTROLLING NATURAL SALT SOURCES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The methodology underlying, and the estimates incorporated in the Corps of Engineers' economic evaluation of the Arkansas River Basin Chloride Control Project are evaluated and judged deficient in several ways. An improperly specified alternative cost analysis probably results in overestimates of the total regional demand for water, the demand for Arkansas River Water, and the cost-savings realized with the project in place. The quantitative effect of these errors is not determined. However, other adjustments are identified which are evaluated using the Corps' data. These adjustments reduce B/C from 2.64 to 0.57; principally as a result of corrections for over-estimates of cost-savings in steam-electric generation, and for use of improper discounting procedures and gross output-earnings ratios.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In North America the four successive winters from 1974-1975 through 1977–1978 were very different from each other in terms of atmospheric circulation and resulting surface weather conditions. The first year of the sequence there was a near normal circulation pattern. The following years were characterized by the gradual amplification of an upper atmosphere ridge over the West Coast coupled with an eastward displacement of a long-wave trough east of the Rocky Mountains. These changes in circulation brought below normal temperatures to the Midwest, below normal precipition and increasing snowfall which reached record levels in February 1978. These atmospheric changes brought about changes in the flow of the Kankakee River-Total runoff in the winter half-year dropped as precipitation and temperatures dropped; there was a marked retarding of winter runoff and the yield of the watershed increased.     

A STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CANBERRA AREA AND THE QUEANBEYAN RIVER WATERSHED (GOOGONG DAM CATCHMENT)1

Data provided by the Australian Commonwealth Bureaus of Meteorology and Mineral Resources are used in this water budget study of the Queanbeyan River watershed. Air and soil temperatures show close correlation from month to month during the five-year period. A close parallel also exists for the air temperature values and the seasonal variations in the Nett-Moisture (rainfall minus evaporation) plots. Ground-water levels appear to be influenced by drought periods and by under groundwater storage conditions such as “nick-points” in the sub-surface migration conditions. The groundwater levels were unusually high early in the drought year of 1964-65. The annual rainfall totals for 1962, 1963, and 1966 were all exceeded by the evaporation totals. In 1964 and in 1965 (the drought year) the evaporation total exceeded the rainfall total. The minimum annual water discharge values for the Queanbeyan River ranged from 4.9″ in 1963 to 1.4′ in 1965.