SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

THE FLOOD OF '96 AND ITS SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The meteorology flood hydroclimatolog and socioeconomic impacts of the Flood of January 1996 in the Susquehanna River Basin are explored. The analysis explains how an unusual storm system brought high humidities, high temperatures, strong winds, and heavy rain to the basin. The rapid melt of the deep snowpack, combined with the heavy rainfall, produced the sudden release of large volumes of water. Because the ground surface was frozen or saturated, this water moved primarily as overland flow. Thus, the flood waters were not restricted to areas immediately adjacent to stream channels and, consequently, some of the largest impacts were on people, property, and infrastructure in areas not normally prone to flooding. Socioeconomic patterns of flooding over time and space are investigated to put this flood into context and to highlight its impacts. The analysis concludes that if such overland flooding is a more common feature of climate change, then the current vulnerability to this form of flooding and its economic implications must be considered carefully.     

CHANNELIZATION EFFECTS ON OBION RIVER FLOODING,WESTERN TENNESSEE1

ABSTRACT: Much of the Obion River in western Tennessee was channelized into the 1960s. Stage data from three stream-flow gaging stations on the Obion were used to determine how channelization affected flood frequency and annual maximum stage. Channelization affected the upper and lower Obion River differently. Flooding has become infrequent on the upper Obion River since channelization, even during the winter and spring which is the wettest time of year. In contrast, except for the winter months, there has been little effect on flood frequency on the lower Obion River where stage is highly dependent on the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River often backs up and floods the Obion River more than 50 km above its mouth and may contribute to flooding at an even greater distance upstream by reducing the water-surface gradient and slowing discharge. Channelization on the upper section of the river and many of the small tributaries has increased flow efficiency, but has also caused channel erosion and downstream deposition, reducing the cross-sectional channel area and possibly contributing to downstream flooding. Maximum annual stages at the upper and lower Obion River changed little. Therefore, the maximum surface area, submerged at least once each year, has been unaffected by channelization.     

THE EFFECTS OF MINE ACID ON THE POND RIVER WATERSHED IN WESTERN KENTUCKY1

ABSTRACT: H₂SO₄ (sulfuric acid) is formed by a chemical process that occurs in unreclaimed coal mines. The highly toxic acid then flows into the lower swamp areas where it causes considerable damage to the ecosystem. The major effect of the acid is the mass destruction of thousands of trees and various other phreatophytic plants. The contamination is so serious that most of the wildlife has migrated out of the affected area of the swamp in order to survive. Certain geological features such as coal bearing monadanocks make the area somewhat sensitive to mining activities and related geologic hazards. New methods of mine acid abatement make the concept of mass reclamation more realistic than at any time in the past. The constant annihilation of swamp life and processes emphasizes the urgent need for reclamation of the swamp.     

LOW DISCHARGE PERIODS OF RIVERS IN THE UPPER VISTULA RIVER BASIN,POLAND1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for determining low discharge periods of rivers based on threshold values defined in terms of MEAN OF MINIMUM SUMMER (WINTER) DISCHARGES. The method is used to determine summer low flow periods in the Vistula River basin in Poland. Analysis is based on daily discharge data for 84 basins of the Upper Vistula River which was collected by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Economy.     

WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS OF THE HALIFAX RIVER,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An application of the receiving water block of the EPA Storm Water management Model (SWMM) is presented to quantify water quality impacts and evaluated control alternatives for a 208 areawide waste water management plan in Volusia Country, Florida. The water quality impact analyses were conducted for dry-and wet-weather conditions to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorides, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) in the Halifax Rivers, Florida, a 40-kilometer-long tidal estuary located on the Atlantic coast of Florida near Daytona Beach. Dry-weather analysis was performed using conventional 7-day, 10-year low flow conditions to determine a set of unit transfer coefficients which estimate the pollutant concentration transferred to any point in the estuary from a constant unit discharge of pollutants at the existing waste water treatment plant outfall locations. Wet-weather analysis was performed by continuous simulation of a typical three-month summer wet season in Florida. Three-month cumulative duration curves of DO, TN and TP concentrations were constructed to estimate the relative value of controlling urban runoff of waste water treatment plant effluent on the Halifax River. The three-month continuous simulation indicated that the greatest change in DO, TN, and TP duration curves is possible by abatement of waste water treatment plant pollution.     

A STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CANBERRA AREA AND THE QUEANBEYAN RIVER WATERSHED (GOOGONG DAM CATCHMENT)1

Data provided by the Australian Commonwealth Bureaus of Meteorology and Mineral Resources are used in this water budget study of the Queanbeyan River watershed. Air and soil temperatures show close correlation from month to month during the five-year period. A close parallel also exists for the air temperature values and the seasonal variations in the Nett-Moisture (rainfall minus evaporation) plots. Ground-water levels appear to be influenced by drought periods and by under groundwater storage conditions such as “nick-points” in the sub-surface migration conditions. The groundwater levels were unusually high early in the drought year of 1964-65. The annual rainfall totals for 1962, 1963, and 1966 were all exceeded by the evaporation totals. In 1964 and in 1965 (the drought year) the evaporation total exceeded the rainfall total. The minimum annual water discharge values for the Queanbeyan River ranged from 4.9″ in 1963 to 1.4′ in 1965.     

ECONOMICS OF CONTROLLING NATURAL SALT SOURCES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The methodology underlying, and the estimates incorporated in the Corps of Engineers' economic evaluation of the Arkansas River Basin Chloride Control Project are evaluated and judged deficient in several ways. An improperly specified alternative cost analysis probably results in overestimates of the total regional demand for water, the demand for Arkansas River Water, and the cost-savings realized with the project in place. The quantitative effect of these errors is not determined. However, other adjustments are identified which are evaluated using the Corps' data. These adjustments reduce B/C from 2.64 to 0.57; principally as a result of corrections for over-estimates of cost-savings in steam-electric generation, and for use of improper discounting procedures and gross output-earnings ratios.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECENT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In North America the four successive winters from 1974-1975 through 1977–1978 were very different from each other in terms of atmospheric circulation and resulting surface weather conditions. The first year of the sequence there was a near normal circulation pattern. The following years were characterized by the gradual amplification of an upper atmosphere ridge over the West Coast coupled with an eastward displacement of a long-wave trough east of the Rocky Mountains. These changes in circulation brought below normal temperatures to the Midwest, below normal precipition and increasing snowfall which reached record levels in February 1978. These atmospheric changes brought about changes in the flow of the Kankakee River-Total runoff in the winter half-year dropped as precipitation and temperatures dropped; there was a marked retarding of winter runoff and the yield of the watershed increased.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CHOWAN RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Chowan River system consists of three rivers in southeast Virginia that form two confluences before flowing into Albermarle Sound in North Carolina. A computer program was written to simulate flows through the river system to determine flow rates, velocities, and depths. The output of the flow program was input into a second program that calculated the concentrations of BOD₅, COD, DO, and four nitrogen parameters (organic, ammonia, nitrite-nitrate and algal-N). Measured field data were used to calibrate the model. The effect of reducing the concentration of nutrients from overland runoff on algal concentrations at the mouth of the river was studied. The program was also run to simulate the water quality of the watershed in a primitive condition, in which the watershed was assumed to consist only of forests. The results of the computer program indicate that the major changes in the water quality of the river are simulated satisfactorily. The program can be used to assess the impact of any management scheme to improve water quality.     

A CRITICAL APPROACH TO THE CALIBRATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A complex watershed-scale water quality simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model, was calibrated for a 16 km² catchment. The simulation step size was 0.33 hours with predicted and recorded hydrologic flows compared on an annual and monthly basis during a total calibration period of four years. Unguided numerical optimization when applied alone did not yield a model parameter set with acceptable predictive capability; instead, it was necessary to apply a critical process that included sensitivity analysis, numerical optimization, and testing of derived model parameter sets to evaluate their performance for periods other than those for which they were determined. Using this critical calibration process, the model was proven to have significant predictive capability. Numerical optimization is an aid for model calibration, but it must not be used blindly.     

THE WATERSHED IN PRINCIPLE1

Three fundamental concepts linking drainage basin characteristics, stream behavior, and management of watersheds are deduced from field data and observations. An electrical analogy of a watershed clarifies definitions and broadens understanding of this complex natural resource. The three basic principles deal with (1) the interrelationships of watershed morphology, constitution, and appearance; (2) the nature of the control man can exert over runoff-influencing forces, and (3) the efficiency of watershed management efforts. Recognition of these principles can assist educators, managers, planners and researchers to more fully inform students and to more effectively guide and evaluate management decisions.     

CONSUMPTIVE USE OF STREAMFLOW INCREASES IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This study examined the disposition of streamflow increases that could be created by vegetation management on forest land along the upper reaches of the Colorado River. A network optimization model was used to simulate water flow, storage, consumptive use, and loss within the entire Colorado River Basin with and without the flow increases, according to various scenarios incorporating both current and future consumptive use levels as well as existing and potential institutional constraints. Results indicate that very little of the flow increases would be consumptively used at current use levels, or even at future use levels, if water allocation institutions remain unchanged. Given future use levels and economically based water allocation institutions, up to one-half of the flow increases could be consumptively used. The timing of streamflow increases, and the institutional constraints on water allocation, often limit the potential for consumptive use of flow increases.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: A method of predicting annual flows is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment. Statistical tests show the annual flow records to be stationary and aerially independent and can be adequately approximated by Gaussian distributions. Estimates are made of the Gaussian parameters for each subbasin. The spatial variations of these parameters are described by third order trend surfaces. The fitted surfaces can then be used to predict parameters of ungaged basins using the latitude and longitude of the basin centroids. The predicted parametric values are substituted into the Gaussian distribution to generate flows of various return periods.     

REGIONALIZATION AND PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FLOODS IN THE FRASER RIVER CATCHMENT,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

A method of predicting probability distributions of annual floods is presented and is applied to the Fraser River catchment of British Columbia. The Gumbel distribution is found to adequately describe the observed flood frequency data. Using the estimated Gumbel parameters, discriminant analysis is performed to separate basins into flood regions. Within each region, regression analysis is used to relate physiographic and climatic variables to the means and standard deviations of the annual flood series. The regression equations are applied to four test basins and the results indicate that the method is suitable for an estimation of annual floods.     

AN OPERATIONAL WATERSHED MODEL: STEP 1-B: REGULATION OF WATER LEVELS IN THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BASIN1

Step-IB in the first phase of an “Operational Watershed Model” recently initiated by the Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District for managing its water resources is to compute water surface elevation, spatially and temporally, in the Kissimmee River Basin system of reservoirs, channels and spillways. An approach is based upon the principles of gradually varied flow. Mathematical relationships to compute lake stage as a function of storage, and to compute discharge through the control structures as a function of gate opening and differential head across the structures are developed. Their feasibility for application is clearly demonstrated by the simulated mean daily water surface elevation for a period of two years on the tail side of one typical gated spillway and on the head side of another gated spillway.     

QUALITY OF WATER AND BOTTOM SEDIMENTS IN THE TRINITY RIVER1

ABSTRACT: Data were developed to determine the quality of water and bottom sediments in the Trinity River, and the mobility of various contaminants when bottom sediments were mixed with the river water under simulated dredging conditions. Thirteen sampling sites were selected. A number of chemical tests including heavy metals and pesticides were conducted on river water, elutriates, and bottom sediments. Statis bioassays using Daphnia magna were conducted on river water and elutriates. Results indicated that the river in the upper reach is grossly polluted due to discharge of waste water effluents from several large treatment plants. High concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, COD, heavy metals, and pesticides were found in water and bottom sediments. The concentrations of most of these pollutants exceeded the EPA recommended limits. Elutriation gave no consistent results, perhaps because of release or uptake of contaminants from the sediments. High mortality of D. magna were also recorded in the upper reach of the river. The quality of water and bottom sediments gradually improved in lower reaches.     

A VERIFICATION OF THE QUAL-1 WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the verification of the QUAL-1 mass transport model for the lower Mississippi River between St. Francisville and Point a la Hache using dye studies conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey. QUAL-1 is a one-dimensional steady-state model for rivers and is capable of predicting longitudinal profiles of soluble materials entering rivers from point sources. Both conservative and nonconservative parameters of water quality can be considered. The major problems surmounted were the determination of a diffusion coefficient and the use of transient data to verify a steady state model.