Avian Conservation under the Endangered Species Act: Expenditures versus Recovery Priorities

Abstract: Budget constraints require the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to prioritize species for recovery spending. Each listed species is ranked according to the degree of threat it faces, its recovery potential, and its taxonomic distinctness. We analyzed state and federal government expenditures for recovery of threatened and endangered birds ( n = 85 species) from 1992 to 1995 to determine if the priority system was being followed. Although recovery spending correlated with priority rank, priority rank explained <5% of the variation in spending. A small number of the same moderately ranked species dominated expenditures each year (41–79% of total annual budgets). Species with wide distributions, high recovery potential, and captive breeding programs received the most funding, and more funding than their priority ranks dictated. Island species received significantly less funding than expected based on priority rank. Twelve species, 10 of which resided on islands, received <$5000 at least once from 1992 to 1995. Recovery spending was unrelated to degree of threat, taxonomic distinctness, and migratory status. There also was no relationship between land-purchase expenditures and priority ranks. To improve the relationship between recovery spending on threatened and endangered birds and their priority rank, significant changes need to be made within the private sector ( less litigation and special-interest lobbying  ), U.S. Congress (increased budget and reduced earmarking  ), and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (restructuring of regional offices and increased accountability).     

Using Phylogenetic Diversity Measures to Set Priorities in Conservation: an Example from Southern South America

Abstract: Phylogenetic diversity measures rank areas for biodiversity conservation priorities based on information encoded in phylogenies (cladograms). The goal of these ranks for conservation is to consider as many factors as possible that provide additional taxic information, such as taxa richness, taxa distributional patterns, area endemicity, and complementarity between areas. At present there are many measures that consider phylogenetic information, including node-based, genetic-distance, and feature-based measures. We devised a modified phylogenetic node-based index that we call "taxonomic endemicity standardized weight," which considers not only the taxonomic distinctness of the taxa that inhabit a given area but their endemicity as well. Once the standardized weight of the taxonomic endemicity identifies the area of highest priority, complementarity can be used to identify the second area and so on. We used this node-based index to rank priority areas for conservation in southern South America, and we compared the results of our rankings to results based on other node-based indexes. Our index identified Santiago district, in Central Chile province, as the highest priority area for conservation, followed by Maule, Malvinas, and districts of Subantarctic province. Malvinas exhibits greater complementarity relative to Santiago than Maule does, however, so Malvinas is ranked second in priority. Indexes based on phylogenetic information measure the evolutionary component of biodiversity and allow one to identify areas that will ensure the preservation of evolutionary potential and phylogenetically rare taxa. The modified index we propose is sensitive to taxic distinctness and endemicity as well and allows information from diverse taxa to be combined (i.e., different cladograms). The use of complementarity allows for preservation of the maximum quantity of taxa in a minimal number of protected areas.     

Taxonomic Uncertainty and the Loss of Biodiversity on Christmas Island,Indian Ocean

The taxonomic uniqueness of island populations is often uncertain which hinders effective prioritization for conservation. The Christmas Island shrew (Crocidura attenuata trichura) is the only member of the highly speciose eutherian family Soricidae recorded from Australia. It is currently classified as a subspecies of the Asian gray or long‐tailed shrew (C. attenuata), although it was originally described as a subspecies of the southeast Asian white‐toothed shrew (C. fuliginosa). The Christmas Island shrew is currently listed as endangered and has not been recorded in the wild since 1984–1985, when 2 specimens were collected after an 80‐year absence. We aimed to obtain DNA sequence data for cytochrome b (cytb) from Christmas Island shrew museum specimens to determine their taxonomic affinities and to confirm the identity of the 1980s specimens. The Cytb sequences from 5, 1898 specimens and a 1985 specimen were identical. In addition, the Christmas Island shrew cytb sequence was divergent at the species level from all available Crocidura cytb sequences. Rather than a population of a widespread species, current evidence suggests the Christmas Island shrew is a critically endangered endemic species, C. trichura, and a high priority for conservation. As the decisions typically required to save declining species can be delayed or deferred if the taxonomic status of the population in question is uncertain, it is hoped that the history of the Christmas Island shrew will encourage the clarification of taxonomy to be seen as an important first step in initiating informed and effective conservation action.     

Some properties of new nesting areas of sea turtles in north-eastern Mediterranean situated on the extension of the Samandag Beach, Turkey

One of the most endangered species in tropical seas, Chelonia mydas (green turtles) prefer undisturbed sand beaches to lay their eggs. While Caretta caretta lays their eggs all over the Mediterranean beaches of Turkey, C. mydas nesting locations are limited with north-eastern site (Alata, Kazanli, Akyatan and Samandag) of the country and some beaches in Cyprus. Until 2003, no nesting place of both species between Akyatan and Samandag was recorded. From north to south, the beaches examined in 2003 summer are Arsuz, Konacik, Kale, Tr-H-3, Tr-H-2, and Tr-H-1 in addition to well-known and studied nesting beaches of sea turtle species in Hatay Province: Cevlik, Seyhhizir and Meydan. Since the Hatay Provincial Coast between Cevlik and Arsuz is hilly and no stabilized road is available, these small beaches were not known to have both C. mydas and C. caretta nests. Some physical and chemical sand properties, the number of nests belong to both species and selected nest specifications were investigated in this study. Kale Beach was found to be the most important nesting place in this less populated area. Based on results, Kale, Tr-H-3 and Tr-H-1 beaches were recorded to have high hatchling success.     

Impacts of phylogenetic nomenclature on the efficacy of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Cataloging biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts because accurate taxonomy is often a precondition for protection under laws designed for species conservation, such as the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Traditional nomenclatural codes governing the taxonomic process have recently come under scrutiny because taxon names are more closely linked to hierarchical ranks than to the taxa themselves. A new approach to naming biological groups, called phylogenetic nomenclature (PN), explicitly names taxa by defining their names in terms of ancestry and descent. PN has the potential to increase nomenclatural stability and decrease confusion induced by the rank‐based codes. But proponents of PN have struggled with whether species and infraspecific taxa should be governed by the same rules as other taxa or should have special rules. Some proponents advocate the wholesale abandonment of rank labels (including species); this could have consequences for the implementation of taxon‐based conservation legislation. I examined the principles of PN as embodied in the PhyloCode (an alternative to traditional rank‐based nomenclature that names biological groups based on the results of phylogenetic analyses and does not associate taxa with ranks) and assessed how this novel approach to naming taxa might affect the implementation of species‐based legislation by providing a case study of the ESA. The latest version of the PhyloCode relies on the traditional rank‐based codes to name species and infraspecific taxa; thus, little will change regarding the main targets of the ESA because they will retain rank labels. For this reason, and because knowledge of evolutionary relationships is of greater importance than nomenclatural procedures for initial protection of endangered taxa under the ESA, I conclude that PN under the PhyloCode will have little impact on implementation of the ESA. Impactos de la Nomenclatura Filogenética sobre la Eficiencia del Acta Estadunidense para las Especies en Peligro     

Identifying conservation priorities for threatened Eastern Himalayan mammals

To augment mammal conservation in the Eastern Himalayan region, we assessed the resident 255 terrestrial mammal species and identified the 50 most threatened species based on conservation status, endemism, range size, and evolutionary distinctiveness. By using the spatial analysis package letsR and the complementarity core‐area method in the conservation planning software Zonation, we assessed the current efficacy of their protection and identified priority conservation areas by comparing protected areas (PAs), land cover, and global ecoregion 2017 maps at a 100 × 100 m spatial scale. The 50 species that were most threatened, geographically restricted, and evolutionarily distinct faced a greater extinction risk than globally nonthreatened and wide‐ranging species and species with several close relatives. Small, medium‐sized, and data‐deficient species faced extinction from inadequate protection in PAs relative to wide‐ranging charismatic species. There was a mismatch between current PA distribution and priority areas for conservation of the 50 most endangered species. To protect these species, the skewed regional PA distribution would require expansion. Where possible, new PAs and transboundary reserves in the 35 priority areas we identified should be established. There are adequate remaining natural areas in which to expand current Eastern Himalayan PAs. Consolidation and expansion of PAs in the EH requires strengthening national and regional transboundary collaboration, formulating comprehensive regional land‐use plans, diversifying conservation funding, and enhancing information sharing through a consolidated regional database.     

Conservation Genetics of North American Freshwater Mussels Amblema and Megalonaias

Freshwater bivalves are among the most endangered groups of organisms in North America. Efforts to protect the declining mussel fauna are confounded by ambiguities associated with recognition of distinct evolutionary entities or species. This, in part, is due to the paucity of reliable morphological characters for differentiating taxa. We have employed allozymes and DNA sequence data to search for diagnosably distinct evolutionary entities within two problematic genera of unionid mussels, Amblema and Megalonaias. Within the genus Amblema three species are recognized based on our DNA sequence data for the mitochondrial 16S rRNA and allozyme data (Amblema neislerii, A. plicata, and A. elliotti). Only one taxonomically distinct entity is recognized within the genus Megalonaias—M. nervosa. Megalonaias boykiniana of the Apalachicolan Region is not diagnosable and does not warrant specific taxonomic status. Interestingly, Megalonaias from west of the Mississippi River, including the Mississippi, exhibited an allozyme and mtDNA haplotype frequency shift suggestive of an east-west dichotomy. The results of this study eliminate one subspecies of Amblema and increase the range of A. plicata. This should not affect the conservation status of "currently stable" assigned to A. plicata by Williams et al. (1993). The conservation status of A. elliotti needs to be reexamined because its distribution appears to be limited to the Coosa River System in Alabama and Georgia.     

Integrating Habitat Status, Human Population Pressure, and Protection Status into Biodiversity Conservation Priority Setting

Abstract:  Priority setting is an essential component of biodiversity conservation. Existing methods to identify priority areas for conservation have focused almost entirely on biological factors. We suggest a new relative ranking method for identifying priority conservation areas that integrates both biological and social aspects. It is based on the following criteria: the habitat's status, human population pressure, human efforts to protect habitat, and number of endemic plant and vertebrate species. We used this method to rank 25 hotspots, 17 megadiverse countries, and the hotspots within each megadiverse country. We used consistent, comprehensive, georeferenced, and multiband data sets and analytical remote sensing and geographic information system tools to quantify habitat status, human population pressure, and protection status. The ranking suggests that the Philippines, Atlantic Forest, Mediterranean Basin, Caribbean Islands, Caucasus, and Indo-Burma are the hottest hotspots and that China, the Philippines, and India are the hottest megadiverse countries. The great variation in terms of habitat, protected areas, and population pressure among the hotspots, the megadiverse countries, and the hotspots within the same country suggests the need for hotspot- and country-specific conservation policies.     

Conservation threats and the phylogenetic utility of IUCN Red List rankings in Incilius toads

Phylogenetic analysis of extinction threat is an emerging tool in the field of conservation. However, there are problems with the methods and data as commonly used. Phylogenetic sampling usually extends to the level of family or genus, but International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) rankings are available only for individual species, and, although different species within a taxonomic group may have the same IUCN rank, the species may have been ranked as such for different reasons. Therefore, IUCN rank may not reflect evolutionary history and thus may not be appropriate for use in a phylogenetic context. To be used appropriately, threat‐risk data should reflect the cause of extinction threat rather than the IUCN threat ranking. In a case study of the toad genus Incilius, with phylogenetic sampling at the species level (so that the resolution of the phylogeny matches character data from the IUCN Red List), we analyzed causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings by calculating metrics of phylogenetic signal (such as Fritz and Purvis’ D). We also analyzed the extent to which cause of decline and threat ranking overlap by calculating phylogenetic correlation between these 2 types of character data. Incilius species varied greatly in both threat ranking and cause of decline; this variability would be lost at a coarser taxonomic resolution. We found far more phylogenetic signal, likely correlated with evolutionary history, for causes of decline than for IUCN threat ranking. Individual causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings were largely uncorrelated on the phylogeny. Our results demonstrate the importance of character selection and taxonomic resolution when extinction threat is analyzed in a phylogenetic context.     

Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.     

Diagnosing Units of Conservation Management

Species-oriented conservation programs attempt to analyze and maintain intra-specific variation in order to maximally preserve biological diversity. The "evolutionarily significant unit" has become an operational term for a group of organisms that should be the minimial unit for conservation management. No generally accepted definition for this term exists that would be the basis for the evaluation of these units in practical conservation situations. Currently, taxonomic decisions in species conservation are mostly based on the biological species concept. But the universal application of criteria of reproductive isolation or phenetic similarity to delimit conservation units is problematical. We favor a definition for evolutionarily significant units based on patterns of variation. In the theoretical framework of the phylogenetic species concept, conservation units are delimited by characters that diagnose clusters of individuals or populations to the exclusion of other such clusters. Characters are used for cladistic analysis to infer hypotheses of the phylogenetic relationships of individuals, and differentiated populations are diagnosed using population aggregation analysis. Characters can be based on genetic, morphological, ecological, or behavioral information, provided they are inferred to be heritable. The use of cladistics and population aggregation analysis has the potential to make the evaluation of evoluntionarily significant units objective and testable, an important consideration in politically controversial cases. Our cladistic approach is demonstrated by the evaluation of potential conservation units in the endangered tiger beetles Cicindela dorsalis and C. puritana .     

Taxonomic Considerations in Listing Subspecies Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Abstract:  The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) allows listing of subspecies and other groupings below the rank of species. This provides the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service with a means to target the most critical unit in need of conservation. Although roughly one-quarter of listed taxa are subspecies, these management agencies are hindered by uncertainties about taxonomic standards during listing or delisting activities. In a review of taxonomic publications and societies, we found few subspecies lists and none that stated standardized criteria for determining subspecific taxa. Lack of criteria is attributed to a centuries-old debate over species and subspecies concepts. Nevertheless, the critical need to resolve this debate for ESA listings led us to propose that minimal biological criteria to define disjunct subspecies (legally or taxonomically) should include the discreteness and significance criteria of distinct population segments (as defined under the ESA). Our subspecies criteria are in stark contrast to that proposed by supporters of the phylogenetic species concept and provide a clear distinction between species and subspecies. Efforts to eliminate or reduce ambiguity associated with subspecies-level classifications will assist with ESA listing decisions. Thus, we urge professional taxonomic societies to publish and periodically update peer-reviewed species and subspecies lists. This effort must be paralleled throughout the world for efficient taxonomic conservation to take place.     

Multispecies genetic objectives in spatial conservation planning

Growing threats to biodiversity and global alteration of habitats and species distributions make it increasingly necessary to consider evolutionary patterns in conservation decision making. Yet, there is no clear‐cut guidance on how genetic features can be incorporated into conservation‐planning processes, despite multiple molecular markers and several genetic metrics for each marker type to choose from. Genetic patterns differ between species, but the potential tradeoffs among genetic objectives for multiple species in conservation planning are currently understudied. We compared spatial conservation prioritizations derived from 2 metrics of genetic diversity (nucleotide and haplotype diversity) and 2 metrics of genetic isolation (private haplotypes and local genetic differentiation) in mitochondrial DNA of 5 marine species. We compared outcomes of conservation plans based only on habitat representation with plans based on genetic data and habitat representation. Fewer priority areas were selected for conservation plans based solely on habitat representation than on plans that included habitat and genetic data. All 4 genetic metrics selected approximately similar conservation‐priority areas, which is likely a result of prioritizing genetic patterns across a genetically diverse array of species. Largely, our results suggest that multispecies genetic conservation objectives are vital to creating protected‐area networks that appropriately preserve community‐level evolutionary patterns.     

Priorities for global felid conservation

Conservation resources are limited, necessitating prioritization of species and locations for action. Most prioritization approaches are based solely on biologically relevant characteristics of taxa or areas and ignore geopolitical realities. Doing so risks a poor return on conservation investment due to nonbiological factors, such as economic or political instability. We considered felids, a taxon which attracts intense conservation attention, to demonstrate a new approach that incorporates both intrinsic species traits and geopolitical characteristics of countries. We developed conservation priority scores for wild felids based on their International Union for Conservation of Nature status, body mass, habitat, range within protected area, evolutionary distinctiveness, and conservation umbrella potential. We used published data on governance, economics and welfare, human population pressures, and conservation policy to assign conservation‐likelihood scores to 142 felid‐hosting countries. We identified 71 countries as high priorities (above median) for felid conservation. These countries collectively encompassed all 36 felid species and supported an average of 96% of each species’ range. Of these countries, 60.6% had below‐average conservation‐likelihood scores, which indicated these countries are relatively risky conservation investments. Governance was the most common factor limiting conservation likelihood. It was the major contributor to below‐median likelihood scores for 62.5% of the 32 felid species occurring in lower‐likelihood countries. Governance was followed by economics for which scores were below median for 25% of these species. An average of 58% of species’ ranges occurred in 43 higher‐priority lower‐likelihood countries. Human population pressure was second to governance as a limiting factor when accounting for percentage of species’ ranges in each country. As conservation likelihood decreases, it will be increasingly important to identify relevant geopolitical limitations and tailor conservation strategies accordingly. Our analysis provides an objective framework for biodiversity conservation action planning. Our results highlight not only which species most urgently require conservation action and which countries should be prioritized for such action, but also the diverse constraints which must be overcome to maximize long‐term success.     

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.     

Global Patterns of Mammalian Diversity, Endemism, and Endangerment

To assess the conservation status of the world's land mammals, we compiled data on the number of total species, endemic species, recently extinct species, and currently endangered species for 155 countries. Total species richness was significantly correlated with territorial land area, whereas number of endemic species was only weakly correlated with both area and total number of species. The large amount of variation left unexplained by species-area regressions reflects the influence of other factors, such as latitude, topographic and habitat heterogeneity, and historical biogeography, on species richness and especially on patterns of endemism. Countries of particular conservation concern, because they have rich mammalian faunas containing many endemic species, are the large islands of Australia, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as continental Mexico. Patterns of recent extinctions and the current endangered status of species were difficult to interpret, largely because of inadequate and inconsistent data. The majority of officially listed endangered species are large, well known, and popular mammals, such as primates, ungulates, and carnivores, whereas the majority of species known to have gone recently extinct and likely to be currently threatened are small and inconspicuous, such as rodents and bats. Our work not only illustrates the role of ecological, evolutionary, and biogeographic processes in the origin and maintenance of land mammal diversity, it also presents the information at the level of biogeographic regions and political units where management and policy must be applied in order to slow the loss of this diversity.     

National Red Listing Beyond the 2010 Target

Abstract: Following creation of the 2010 Biodiversity Target under the Convention on Biological Diversity and adoption of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, information on status and trends of biodiversity at the national level has become increasingly important to both science and policy. National red lists (NRLs) of threatened species may provide suitable data for reporting on progress toward these goals and for informing national conservation priority setting. This information will also become increasingly important for developing species‐ and ecosystem‐based strategies for climate change adaptation. We conducted a thorough global review of NRLs in 109 countries and analyzed gaps in NRL coverage in terms of geography and taxonomy to determine priority regions and taxonomic groups for further investment. We then examined correlations between the NRL data set and gross domestic product (GDP) and vertebrate species richness. The largest geographic gap was in Oceania, followed by middle Africa, the Caribbean, and western Africa, whereas the largest taxonomic gaps were for invertebrates, fungi, and lichens. The comprehensiveness of NRL coverage within a given country was positively correlated with GDP and negatively correlated with total vertebrate richness and threatened vertebrate richness. This supports the assertion that regions with the greatest and most vulnerable biodiversity receive the least conservation attention and indicates that financial resources may be an integral limitation. To improve coverage of NRLs, we propose a combination of projects that target underrepresented taxa or regions and projects that provide the means for countries to create or update NRLs on their own. We recommend improvements in knowledge transfer within and across regions as a priority for future investment.     

Molecular Systematics, Ethics, and Biological Decision Making under Uncertainty

Abstract: The controversy among Karl and Bowen (1999) , Pritchard (1999) , and Grady and Quattro (1999) over scientific uncertainties and the ethical and political consequences of the black turtle's taxonomic status is caused by incomplete and uncertain scientific knowledge. When faced with cases of uncertainty, conservation biologists need to use ethical rationality, not merely scientific rationality. They should follow three general ethical principles: (1) perform and present unbiased research, (2) promote use of unbiased research by others, and (3) protect human and environmental welfare. Adhering to these principles is difficult because they can conflict, are too general to provide specific guidance in a particular situation, and are not ranked according to which ought to take priority in different situations. One way to deal with these difficulties is to employ a two-stage ethical analysis. This analysis develops general principles (first stage) and then investigates the consequences of adopting each of the principles (second stage). A two-stage ethical analysis applied to the controversy over the black turtle's taxonomic status suggests that even if there are some grounds for expanding conservation biologists' responsibilities to human and environmental welfare, they are not ethically justified in using any means whatsoever to achieve desirable consequences when the public has rights to full information. Conservation biologists do not appear to have grounds for paternalism in this case because it involves value judgments, not merely professional expertise.     

Resembling a Viper: Implications of Mimicry for Conservation of the Endangered Smooth Snake

The phenomenon of Batesian mimicry, where a palatable animal gains protection against predation by resembling an unpalatable model, has been a core interest of evolutionary biologists for 150 years. An extensive range of studies has focused on revealing mechanistic aspects of mimicry (shared education and generalization of predators) and the evolutionary dynamics of mimicry systems (co‐operation vs. conflict) and revealed that protective mimicry is widespread and is important for individual fitness. However, according to our knowledge, there are no case studies where mimicry theories have been applied to conservation of mimetic species. Theoretically, mimicry affects, for example, frequency dependency of predator avoidance learning and human induced mortality. We examined the case of the protected, endangered, nonvenomous smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) that mimics the nonprotected venomous adder (Vipera berus), both of which occur in the Åland archipelago, Finland. To quantify the added predation risk on smooth snakes caused by the rarity of vipers, we calculated risk estimates from experimental data. Resemblance of vipers enhances survival of smooth snakes against bird predation because many predators avoid touching venomous vipers. Mimetic resemblance is however disadvantageous against human predators, who kill venomous vipers and accidentally kill endangered, protected smooth snakes. We found that the effective population size of the adders in Åland is very low relative to its smooth snake mimic (28.93 and 41.35, respectively).Because Batesian mimicry is advantageous for the mimic only if model species exist in sufficiently high numbers, it is likely that the conservation program for smooth snakes will fail if adders continue to be destroyed. Understanding the population consequences of mimetic species may be crucial to the success of endangered species conservation. We suggest that when a Batesian mimic requires protection, conservation planners should not ignore the model species (or co‐mimic in Mullerian mimicry rings) even if it is not itself endangered. Implications of mimicry for Conservation of the endangered smooth snake     

Threatened Species and the Potential Loss of Phylogenetic Diversity: Conservation Scenarios Based on Estimated Extinction Probabilities and Phylogenetic Risk Analysis

Abstract: New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst‐case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single‐species assessment that is well‐integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.