城市生命线系统暴雪冰冻灾害链分析

预防和减轻城市生命线系统的灾害危险性是防灾减灾中的热点问题.随着自然灾害突发强度、频度和广度的不断增长,自然灾害预防工作显得格外重要.城市作为人口集聚、国民经济、社会发展重要区域和战略中心,自然灾害带来的损失是剧烈、致命的,亟待开展城市生命线系统灾害风险研究.通过对低温暴雪冰冻灾害特点的分析和总结,提出用灾害链理论来研究城市生命线系统的暴雪冰冻灾害问题.介绍了城市生命线系统灾害的相关概念,分析了城市生命线系统暴雪冰冻灾害链的致灾原因、形成过程和主要灾害链类型,最后论述了防灾减灾对策.     

灾害观测

本文应用系统科学和信息科学讨论了灾害系统的能达性、能控性与能观性。根根系统能观性原理及量测科学的基本原则,讨论了灾害观测系统应注意的一些问题。     

“人类世”背景下的灾害风险科学复杂性及前沿议题

灾害风险科学复杂性问题研究已成为当前学科发展的难题和热点。该文首先从“人类世”概念出发,阐述了环境变化对灾害风险的影响和解决灾害风险科学中复杂性议题的重要性。论述了系统思维下灾害风险科学的本质是探索区域灾害系统特征和机制,并探讨了区域灾害系统与社会-生态系统和人地关系地域系统的联系。在分析灾害风险科学发展新特征的基础上,对复杂系统和复杂网络的特点及其与灾害系统的内在联系进行了讨论,分析了复杂系统视角下的灾害系统过程和机制特点。最后阐述了灾害风险科学复杂性研究面临的秩序机遇、技术机遇和数据机遇,并提出了灾害风险科学复杂性研究的前沿议题。     

软土地区地铁工程地质灾害链及危险性评估

软土由于具有高含水量、高孔隙比、高压缩型、低强度和低渗透性等特点,因此在软土地区进行地下工程的施工往往会触发一些工程性地质灾害.以往在进行地铁建设的危险性评估是往往是针对单独的灾害类型进行评估.但是,根据经验,这些灾害往往不是单独发生的,而是呈链式发展,即一个重大灾害发生之后,会触发其他的次生灾害,并呈链式有序结构的传承效应,称为灾害链.城市中由于建筑密集、人口众多,灾害链一旦形成将导致地铁系统在短时间内遭受连续不断的打击,其影响远大于各灾害单独发生时的影响的简单叠加.     

我国灾害经济统计评估系统及其指标体系的研究

灾害经济现象的统计与评估问题,是开展减灾系统工程及进行灾害经济学研究的重要前提。本文从系统科学的观点出发,分析了建立我国灾害经济系统评估系统的一般问题,同时还对我国灾害经济统计评估指标体系的设计进行了初步探讨.     

论我国灾害历史的研究

灾害史的研究是灾害学研究的一个重要领域，本文在列举我国历史灾害资料的基础上，论述了灾害历史研究的必要性。     

灾害系统分类初探

本文在分析目前灾害分类中存在问题的基础上,以系统方法为指导,从地球表层系统出发,论述了灾害分类应考虑的五条原则,提出了一个采用同一、多级分类标志的新的灾害的系统分类,把各种灾害类型予以按某种标志划分明确的种类,使之能适应当前和一段时期灾害类型发展的需要,希望初步解决以往灾害分类中的不足之处。     

城市灾害易损性及其评价指标

城市化的加速使城市成为国民经济和社会发展的重要区域,同时灾害给城市发展造成了巨大的损失。通过分析易损性的维度和时空性,并在总结多因子复合函数方法、模糊综合评价方法、数据包络分析方法等易损性研究方法的基础上,结合复杂的城市系统的内部特征,从人口易损性、经济易损性、社会易损性和生态环境易损性4个方面建立适合城市灾害易损性评价的框架;探讨了包括人口迁入率和经济密度等11个城市灾害易损性指标体系。最后指出城市灾害易损性研究对城市可持续发展有重要意义。     

灾害系统视角下的灾害耦合效应探讨

灾害耦合效应是灾害风险科学领域关注的焦点议题，与复杂灾害事件具有密切的联系。该文首先从词源角度阐述了“耦合”的内涵，提出了灾害耦合效应的概念，对比了灾害耦合与灾害叠加的差异，阐述了灾害耦合效应的整体性、有序性、动态性和目的性特征。其次从灾害系统的角度出发，分析了灾害系统结构体系和功能体系及演化过程与灾害耦合效应的联系，提出灾害耦合效应具有灾害形成要素耦合和灾害演化过程耦合，并探讨了两种耦合内在的特征及两者互动作用。再次从复杂灾害事件角度出发，探究了灾害群、灾害链和灾害遭遇与灾害耦合效应的关系，提出灾害演化过程耦合与灾害演化网络视角下的灾害链过程具有一致性，灾害形成要素的耦合与广义的灾害遭遇具有一致性。最后该文提出了加强灾害耦合效应研究与实践的关键点。     

泥沙灾害与泥沙灾害链的分类分级

泥沙灾害是泥沙在其侵蚀、输移和沉积运动发生变异时产生的特殊灾害过程,在本质上不同于通常的气象灾害、水灾害、生物灾害和地质灾害.泥沙灾害有着自身的分类系统和分级规则.泥沙灾害可以按照不同的方法进行分类,从而获得不同的分类结果.泥沙灾害链是泥沙灾害过程的主要表现形式之一.基于泥沙灾害特征及泥沙圈与其他圈层相互关系的考虑,从强度和破坏程度两个方面提出了泥沙灾害系统的分类方法,获得了较为完备的泥沙灾害分类.在泥沙灾害分类分级的基础上,还研究了泥沙灾害链的分类分级.泥沙灾害链的分类可以从受灾体和致灾体两个角度采用单指标和分级分类两种方法进行划分,但采用分级分类法更能体现出泥沙灾害链的特点.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Complexity,continuity and change: livelihood resilience in the Darfur region of Sudan

Darfur farming and pastoralist livelihoods are both adaptations to the environmental variability that characterises the region. This article describes this adaptation and the longer‐term transformation of these specialised livelihoods from the perspective of local communities. Over several decades farmers and herders have experienced a continuous stream of climate, conflict and other shocks, which, combined with wider processes of change, have transformed livelihoods and undermined livelihood institutions. Their well‐rehearsed specialist strategies are now combined with new strategies to cope. These responses help people get by in the short term but risk antagonising not only their specialist strategies but also those of others. A combination of factors has undermined the former integration between farming and pastoralism and their livelihood institutions. Efforts to build resilience in similar contexts must take a long‐term view of livelihood adaptation as a specialisation, and consider the implications of new strategies for the continuity and integration of livelihood specialisations.     

Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

中国内陆自然环境的干旱化与未来趋势

根据中国内陆陕西、甘肃部分地区５０９ａ旱涝资料和主要测站气象、水文实测数据,应用Ｗｏｒｄ９７图形处理系统,证明在５２６ａ序列中目前处在１１ａ、５０ａ滑动的干旱期。近４６ａ气温上升了０．３℃,年降水减少了８０ｍｍ,径流量减少了０．７８％,出现了明显的干旱化,环境变化趋势不容乐观。     

美国的洪泛平原管理

美国开展洪泛平原管理已有约40年历史，洪水保险计划是美国泛平原管理的主要措施。了解并借鉴他们的思路与具体策略，将有助于我国洪泛平原管理政策的制定。     

A general assessment of the environmental impact of refugees in Somalia with attention to the refugee agricultural programme

This paper attempts to examine the broad features of Somalia's harsh physical environment into which several hundreds of thousands of refugees, with mainly a nomadic or semi-nomadic life style and culture, dramatically descended six years ago. The thirty-six rural camps in which at least half of them live are described as is the refugee agricultural programme which is training several thousand families so that they may be "self-supporting." The four regions where the camps are located are each briefly summarized in terms of their soils, their climates, their natural vegetation, and the type of agriculture which the refugee farmers practice. A more detailed analysis is then given on the following critical environmental concerns: Vegetation and erosion on refugee farms, the growing problem of refugee livestock, the destruction of trees, and irrigation practices and salinity on refugee farms. The paper concludes with an argument to preserve Somalia's environment from careless and destructive exploitation, which is leading towards desertification, and calls for an in-depth study of the situation.