A preliminary study on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones in Taiwan 2000–2014

Studies on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones often concern large-scale disasters. Attention is rarely paid to small-scale mortality over the long term. To understand the relationship between the environment and the behavior that contributes to mortality, this article uses a classification table to review the 1556 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones, named typhoons, in Taiwan during the period 2000–2014. The results demonstrate that the majority of outdoor deaths are associated with work-related activities, while most indoor deaths occur during non-work-related activities. Taking action, such as stopping the car on a bridge if the tail lights of a vehicle in front disappear, and not walking on the roadside when the road is flooded by muddy water, may help to reduce the likelihood of typhoon-attributed death. The findings also help to dispel four myths associated with typhoon-attributed mortality.     

台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警机制

通过调查受灾民众及未受灾民众对台风等重大灾害性事件的风险认知及预警情况,比较两者的差异,为政府对重大灾害性事件建立预警管理模式提供依据。研究结果表明:①受灾民众和未受灾民众对重大灾害性事件的风险认知水平低,受灾民众对台风的风险认知明显高于未受灾民众(P<0.01);②两者对提升防灾意识的意愿强烈但对防灾资讯关心程度不够,且受灾民众明显更关心防灾资讯(P<0.01);③两者在通过某项预防措施可以避免灾害所造成的损失和撤离危险地区的问题上意见基本一致,但未受灾民众对政府辅助撤离更具有依赖性(P<0.01,P<0.05);④受灾民众比未受灾民众更相信科学家对灾害的预警能力(P<0.01),但均对目前的灾害预警系统满意度一般。     

影响黄渤海域热带气旋的灾害分析

分析了1971—2000年北上影响辽东半岛及黄渤海域热带气旋的气候特征、路径分类及灾害特点，结果表明，台风是造成黄渤海域风浪灾害的主要天气系统之一；辽东半岛地区，最大暴雨是由台风引起的；不同路径的热带气旋造成的灾害不同；热带气旋活动具有群集性，在产生风暴潮、暴雨的同时，常引发洪涝灾害、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害，加重了灾害程度。     

热带气旋的短期气候预报检验

用非线性预报的方法,作西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国、登陆广东热带气旋的短期气候预测,用逐日气压场作登陆广东热带气旋的时段和地段以及南海海面带气旋出现的时间的气候预测。对近3年的热带气候预报进行检验,效果较满意。     

洋面风场的QuikSCAT/SeaWinds遥感探测

QuikSCAT卫星是监测全球气候和海洋环境的重要卫星之一，它已经被世界气象组织列为业务卫星，所得数据对天气预报、气候研究等方面有重要作用。介绍了QuikSCAT卫星的有关背景情况，星载SeaWinds散射测风计观测洋面风的原理和基本算法，说明了利用该资料在热带气旋中心定位及移向预报以及2003年淮河流域暴雨成因分析方面做了尝试性工作。最后，对该数据资料应用中存在的一些问题进行了讨论。     

西北太平洋热带气旋的时空分布特征分析

西北太平洋是世界上热带气旋(TC)发生频率最高、强度最强的一个海区,因此对西北太平洋TC进行气候分析是很有意义的.根据1945-2006年JTWC的数据资料对西北太平洋的热带气旋时空分布特征进行了统计分析,得到TC活动的一些最新概况.从时间分布特征上来看:TC频数呈增加趋势,有两个上升阶段,两个下降阶段;台风和强台风与TC的变化趋势大致相同,但自2000年至今有上升趋势;在季节上分布上,热带气旋,台风和强台风频数存在时间上的延迟现象.从空间分布特征来看:TC源地在0°～30°N范围内,纬向发生高频区轴线位于12.6°N,经向对应于南海海区和菲律宾以东及关岛附近洋面有两个峰值;TC强度越强,其发生高频区纬向轴线向赤道方向移动,而经向轴线向东移动;南海海区不是强台风的高发区;台风和强台风源地高频区经向轴线在145°～155°E之间移动;纬向轴线在6°～14°E之间移动,强台风的源地高频区经向轴线始终位于台风轴线的东侧,而纬向轴线位于其南侧.     

1949～1999年西北太平洋热带气旋活动时空分异研究

采用西北太平洋热带气旋年鉴数据 (1949～ 1999年 ) ,进行了统计分析 ,然后以每次热带气旋的中心位置资料 ,建立起 1°× 1°经纬度的热带气旋路径频数分布图 ,从季节、年际变化全面分析了西北太平洋热带气旋的时空变化规律。结果表明 :(1) 1949年到 1999年 ,西北太平洋热带气旋活动频繁 ,2 0世纪 6 0年代是热带旋多发期 ,70年代后期以后逐渐减少 ;而从年内的变化来看 ,7,8,9,10 ,这 4个月热带气旋发生的次数占绝大多数 ;(2 )热带气旋频数的分布大体以中国南海地区、菲律宾群岛以及马里亚纳群岛附近这 3个密集区为中心 ,向各个方向呈辐射状减少 ;(3)热带气旋频数空间分布存在着明显的季节变化 ,而年际变化不明显。     

热带气旋灾害等级预评估方法初探

利用1982-2009年期间48个影响青田县的热带气旋全县灾情记录,选用相应过程全县经济损失占当年GDP的比例和死亡人数作为衡量热带气旋影响程度的主要因子,计算了每个历史过程的灾情指数;再以灾情指数为样本,以对应过程的全县过程平均雨量、过程最大雨量、日最大雨量、最大风速为因子,通过多元线性回归建立了回归方程,为热带气旋影响灾害预评估提供一种参考依据。     

"艾利"台风异常路径与登陆地点分析

2004年18号台风“艾利”的移动路径在登陆前发生了两次左折，是一次十分罕见的异常路径。从大尺度环流、天气尺度特征分析发现，双台风作用使两个台风产生逆时针旋转效应，及由东西环副高联成的东西向高压坝的阻挡作用，台风西北侧我国江南一福建的偏东一东北气流的加强和沿海地形摩擦效应的综合效果是造成台风“艾利”异常路径的原因。“艾利”台风第二次左折向西南方向移动，沿着福建海岸线的移动阶段，利用沿海多部雷达的高时空分辨率的定位，准确及时地反映了台风西折的动向，为防台抗灾提供了重要的信息，从一定程度上弥补了第二次左折路径预报存在一定偏差的不足。分析还发现，“艾利”台风在第二次左折前后，多普勒雷达速度图象上出现了明显的风速极值区不对称特征，西北象限风速极值大于其它象限的不对称分布可能是导致并维持AERE台风向西南方向移动的重要原因。最后，利用沿海地区稠密的自动气象站探测到的风和气压资料，较好地验证了雷达定位的准确性，同时能够更精确地判定台风的登陆点。     

Examining the CDCynergy Event Assessment Tool: an investigation of the anthrax crisis in Boca Raton, Florida

This paper examines the dependability of the Event Assessment Tool over time. The latter is part of a CD-ROM--Emergency Risk Communication CDCynergy--distributed primarily to public information officers in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Event Assessment Tool is designed to aid emergency professionals in identifying the magnitude of a crisis event and to suggest appropriate actions to confront such a situation. Applied twice during the 2001 anthrax bioterrorism crisis in Boca Raton, Florida, the tool functioned in a binary manner by first indicating a moderate crisis level (on 4 October) and then four days later (on 8 October) a highly intense crisis, suggesting that it is time sensitive. This anthrax event provides an opportunity for crisis and disaster managers to understand the dynamic nature of crises. Rapid changes during these types of events suggest that any metric used to predict intensity must account for this variability. Additional limitations and implications of the tool are discussed.     

台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型

台风灾害的致灾因子具有多重性,这使得台风灾害的风险评估相对于其它灾害来说更加复杂。本文以广东省14个市辖区为例,分别从台风暴雨和台风大风的角度分析了台风致灾因子的时、空、强规律;结合进行研究区承灾体的易损性分析,即选择研究区人口密度、人均GDP和农业占GDP的比重等3个指标综合反映研究区台风灾害的潜在损失风险。在此基础上,本文进一步评估了研究区台风灾害所造成的风险水平的地区差异。结果表明,阳江、深圳、汕尾、珠海、湛江是广东省14个市辖区中受台风灾害影响风险最高的5个区域。     

我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失

自然灾害一直伴随着人类社会的生产、生活与发展,气象灾害尤甚,它们给人类社会造成的经济损失十分巨大。根据中国气象局资料统计,在各类自然灾害中,气象灾害大约占到70%以上。我国每年重大气象灾害影响的人口大约达4亿人次,所造成的经济损失大约占到国民生产总值的1%~3%。近半个世纪以来,发生在我国的重大气象灾害,受灾人口常高达数亿人次,造成的直接经济损失高达数千亿元。为此,对包括热带气旋、干旱、洪涝、低温冷冻和雪灾等我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失的总体概况,进行了总结和归纳,可作为了解和认识我国气象灾害及其经济与社会影响的参考依据。     

影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平评估

在文献「１」研究的基础上,探讨了热带气旋频数预测水平的评估方法,定义了三个更适合于评估每年热带气旋预测性能的参数,对影响上海地区热带气旋频数的预测水平进行了评估,并与“九五”攻关前的业务预测性进行了比较。     

Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts

Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science—and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better?

These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms.

The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.     

Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts

Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science—and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better?These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms.The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.     

3个深入内陆热带气旋产生大暴雨的成因——对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP等资料,对2006年3个深入内陆的热带气旋产生大暴雨的水汽、动力和热力条件进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)碧利斯虽强度属3个热带气旋中最弱的一个(只达强热带风暴等级),但由于它与南侧强西南季风结合,使其产生暴雨的水汽、动力和热力条件异常强盛,因而导致其暴雨强度最强、范围最大、灾害最严重;(2)螺旋度垂直分量20×10-7hPa.s-2等值线包围区的水平范围和螺旋度正值区垂直伸展高度及各层中心值强度与暴雨强弱有较好的关系,且暴雨区主要落在700 hPa 20×10-7hPa.s-2等值线包围区内;(3)暴雨发生时,3个热带气旋的湿位涡MPV1场均呈现下负上正分布,说明低层为不稳定层,同时均出现高层MPV1正值区向低层下伸的现象,反映不稳定能量开始释放;(4)由于3个热带气旋均未与冷空气结合,故MPV2值均较小,因此湿位涡的湿正压项(MPV1)对产生暴雨的作用大于湿斜压项(MPV2)。     

新型低氮旋流燃烧器在马莲台发电厂中的应用

为了达到降低发电厂NOx排放物、改善生态环境的目的,针对采用DDR旋流燃烧器产生NOx较高的问题,马莲台发电厂在脱硝改造工程中大胆采用新型低氮燃烧器与SCR烟气脱硝相结合的技术,取得了良好效果。结果表明:燃烧器改造后锅炉运行各项指标正常,锅炉效率略有提高,NOx排放浓度明显减少,由原来的679.85 mg/Nm³降为290 mg/Nm³,取得了巨大的社会效益和经济效益。