民窿空区群级联失稳评价

民窿空区群已构成了许多矿山安全生产的极大隐患。针对民窿空区群的特点，运用重整化群方法，从整体的角度对民窿空区群系统的稳定性问题进行了研究，得到了空区群变尺度级联失稳迭代函数。给出了判别空区群系统整体失稳的临界概率，将空区群系统失稳的复杂判别转化为单元失稳概率与临界概率大小的比较问题，同时给出了计算实例，以供参考。所建立的方法可以为大规模民窿空区群范围内的工程施工以及民窿所在矿山空区群整体稳定性评价提供参考，同时也为认识一般空区群系统的失稳机理开辟了一条新的途径。     

The value of hazard zone mapping: Water Authority 'Section 24(5) surveys' in England and Wales

Successful problem-solving is usually based upon a sound knowledge of the problem. Where the problem is a hazard, the impossibility of a 'solution' in terms of complete prevention is well known but proper problem assessment is still required. Detailed hazard zone mapping can be a valuable aid to planning to reduce hazards and to avoid disasters. A map is a powerful visual medium for conveying information where awareness of disaster proneness amongst public officials and others is limited. However, a map is also a comparatively limited medium for analysing risks and is most useful to planners if combined with detailed supporting documentation. Maps and related documents are particularly useful if they provide a complete assessment of risk, are periodically updated, are integrated with the planning process and are systematically compiled and presented at an appropriate scale. Map scale often presents problems. The larger the scale, the less limited the map will be in recording useful detail but updating becomes more costly and therefore less likely. The Water Authorities Section 24(5) surveys are remarkably detailed and are valuable planning and research materials. They demonstrate the widespread nature of flooding problems and the need for decades of flood alleviation and drainage expenditure in England and Wales. Further standardisation of content and presentation could enhance the value of the survey reports but their value depends ultimately upon regular and systematic updating.     

福州市区地震灾害损失预测研究

基于福州市区地震危险性分析、地震地质灾害区划、建筑物和生命线易损性分析及防震减灾信息管理系统,本文介绍了在设定地震、历史地震、盲估地震和实时地震等4种不同地震参数输入下福州市区可能遭遇的地震灾害损失预测成果,提出了依据地面数据精度和设施类型划分的大城市地震灾害损失预测城市核心区、城乡结合部和乡村三个层次方案,并在此基础上确定了地震灾害损失的预测评估单元,即在城市核心区,地震灾害的损失评估单元可以是建筑物、居委会或区;在城乡结合部,地震灾害的损失评估以居委会或区为单元;在乡村地震灾害损失评估以乡镇和自然村为单元。根据系统模块,本文预测了8度地震烈度下福州市区地震灾害的总损失及其空间分布,其中全市区人员死亡约123人,重伤约654人,无家可归者约417100人,直接经济损失156.1亿元,并分析了地震灾害损失空间分布不均匀性的主要原因。     

Casualty treatment after earthquake disasters: development of a regional simulation model

This paper presents a new approach to the casualty treatment problem following a large-scale disaster, based on a mathematical model of how a regional health-care system responds to an earthquake event. The numbers and locations of casualties rescued alive, the scale of pre-hospital care, the post-earthquake hospital capacity, and the transport system are inputs to the model. The model simulates the movement of casualties from the stricken areas to hospitals. It predicts the number of casualties that die as well as other statistics about the health-care system response, such as waiting time before treatment. The model can be run with varying input assumptions to simulate alternative disaster response strategies. Preliminary runs demonstrate the potential of the model as a tool for planning and training.     

Toxicological mass disaster management - a hospital deployment scheme

Toxicological mass disasters have occurred frequently in past years and constitute a permanent threat in urban areas. From the standpoint of hospital planning, special consideration is required to treat a large number of poisoned casualties in a relatively short period. Several unique medical aspects characterize toxicological mass disasters: casualties present a single disease entity with many "borderline" cases, most medical personnel are unfamiliar with the problem and casualties present a potential contamination hazard to the hospital. A hospital deployment scheme is presented recommending Decontamination, Triage and simple Treatment Algorithms to meet the medical and organizational challenge of such a mass casualty situation. A further specific deployment scheme for treatment of organophosphorus agents poisoning is described to illustrate the principles presented.     

我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究

在分析地震的特点及我国目前抗震设防中存在问题的基础上,提出了社会可接受地震人员死亡率的概念,介绍了确定可接受地震人员死亡率的方法及需要考虑的因素。同时通过对其它自然灾害和人为灾害死亡率的统计,以问卷调查的形式咨询了熟悉防震减灾工作的有关专家和政府管理部门等业内人士的意见,在此基础上,给出了较合理的社会可接受地震人员死亡率的建议值,为在抗震设防标准研究中定量考虑和控制地震人员伤亡提供了依据。     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

The self‐built ecovillage in L'Aquila,Italy: community resilience as a grassroots response to environmental shock

The paper applies the community resilience approach to the post‐disaster case of Pescomaggiore, an Italian village affected by the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009. A group of residents refused to accept the housing recovery solutions proposed by the government, opting for autonomous recovery. They developed a housing project in the form of a self‐built ecovillage, characterised by earthquake‐proof buildings made of straw and wood. The project is a paradigmatic example of a community‐based response to an external shock. It illustrates the concept of ‘community resilience’, which is widely explored in the scientific debate but still vaguely defined. Based on qualitative methodologies, the paper seeks to understand how the community resilience process can be enacted in alternative social practices such as ecovillages. The goal is to see under which conditions natural disasters can be considered windows of opportunity for sustainability.     

Living with disasters: social capital for disaster governance

This paper explores how social networks and bonds within and across organisations shape disaster operations and strategies. Local government disaster training exercises serve as a window through which to view these relations, and ‘social capital’ is used as an analytic for making sense of the human relations at the core of disaster management operations. These elements help to expose and substantiate the often intangible relations that compose the culture that exists, and that is shaped by preparations for disasters. The study reveals how this social capital has been generated through personal interactions, which are shared among disaster managers across different organisations and across ‘levels’ within those organisations. Recognition of these ‘group resources’ has significant implications for disaster management in which conducive social relations have become paramount. The paper concludes that socio‐cultural relations, as well as a people‐centred approach to preparations, appear to be effective means of readying for, and ultimately responding to, disasters.     

Saving Children During the Depression: Britain's Silent Emergency, 1919–1939

The health of a large section of the British population was more adversely affected by the interwar Depression than was acknowledged by official sources. Particular concern was aroused by the condition of women and children. Many new charitable bodies were formed in response to this problem, and these included Save the Children Fund. This paper gives an indication of the scale of the health problem, which was particularly severe in the areas of heavy industry and high unemployment. It then considers the role of charitable organisations in drawing attention to the severity of deprivation and campaigning for appropriate responses on the part of government. Although these pressure groups were energetic and professional in their campaigning, it is conceded that in the short term they exercised only limited influence. However, it is argued that they won the intellectual contest. Finally, it is pointed out that their policies came to be accepted during World War II; thereby organisations like Save the Children Fund contributed to laying the foundations of the modern welfare state.     

Heat-health warnings in regional Australia: examining public perceptions and responses

ABSTRACT

Heatwaves are an increasing environmental hazard and an important public health issue in Australia. Heat-health warnings are being adopted widely to promote protective behaviours, but there has been limited evaluation of public responses. This study used a household telephone survey to examine public attitudes and responses to heat-health warnings in regional areas in two Australian states, South Australia and Victoria. The results indicate a high level of recall of heat-health warnings and awareness about managing extreme heat. Respondents viewed heat-health warnings positively, but the effects on behaviour change were variable. Our findings suggest that the warnings may be reinforcing existing protective behaviours more than promoting change. Perceptions of heat risks were higher among women than men, but lower in older age groups. Evidence of this nature is important to identify ways to improve heat-health warnings and more effectively address the public health risks.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

How does living with a disability affect resident worry about environmental contamination? A study of a long-term pervasive hazard

ABSTRACT

While a growing body of research within the environmental hazards scholarship examines how disability affects human responses to major, sudden-onset environmental disasters, little attention has been given to understanding how disability affects responses to long-term, pervasive environmental hazards. Research analysing human responses to land and groundwater legacy contamination in residential areas has identified the significance of demographic and psychosocial determinants of worry, however the question of how living with a disability affects resident worry about contamination remains unanswered. This article provides a cornerstone study for exploring the relation between worry about environmental contamination and disability. A study of 486 adults living in 13 urban residential areas in Australia affected by a range of contaminants was undertaken in 2014. Ordinal logistic regression analysis found respondents with a disability were significantly more likely to worry about contamination than those without. People living with a disability had significantly higher amounts of worry about the contamination than those living without. Changes to residents’ daily habits in response to the contamination and perceptions of personal control over exposure to the contamination present important considerations for understanding the implications of worry for people living with and without a disability in the environmental contamination context.     

A pilot study of citizens' opinions on the Incident Command System in Taiwan

Local residents may have different views on disaster‐response modes depending on their cultural and socioeconomic background. The purpose of this study was to examine Taiwan residents' opinions on the Incident Command System (ICS). We performed a structured survey through face‐to‐face interviews in mudslide‐affected communities. Quantitative analysis showed that the residents exhibited a clear preference for the ICS core‐principle attributes of ‘integrated communications’, ‘transfer of command’ and ‘modular organisation’. By contrast, the residents tended towards a non‐ICS approach for ‘incident action plan’ and ‘manageable span of control’. Qualitative analysis revealed an uncertain attitude towards ‘transfer of command’ and ‘incident action plan’. Community acceptance is important in the promotion of the ICS. A better understanding of residents' preferences should be acquired through a broader community survey, allowing us to understand perspectives on the ICS among different societies and facilitate implementation of the ICS at the basic community level.     

Understanding and enhancing future infrastructure resiliency: a socio‐ecological approach

The resilience of any system, human or natural, centres on its capacity to adapt its structure, but not necessarily its function, to a new configuration in response to long‐term socio‐ecological change. In the long term, therefore, enhancing resilience involves more than simply improving a system's ability to resist an immediate threat or to recover to a stable past state. However, despite the prevalence of adaptive notions of resilience in academic discourse, it is apparent that infrastructure planners and policies largely continue to struggle to comprehend longer‐term system adaptation in their understanding of resilience. Instead, a short‐term, stable system (STSS) perspective on resilience is prevalent. This paper seeks to identify and problematise this perspective, presenting research based on the development of a heuristic ‘scenario–episode’ tool to address, and challenge, it in the context of United Kingdom infrastructure resilience. The aim is to help resilience practitioners to understand better the capacities of future infrastructure systems to respond to natural, malicious threats.     

Continue to blame it on the rain? Conceptualization of drought and failure of food systems in the Greater Horn of Africa

Food insecurity continues to be prevalent in parts of Africa. In December 2015, there were approximately 21.6 million food insecure people in the Horn and East Africa. Climate change is likely to exacerbate current volatility of agricultural production and lead to further food insecurity. Whilst the academic literature has acknowledged the complexity of food insecurity and systems, it is not clear to what extent this has been translated into practice. We argue that there is a tendency to explain complex failures of food systems as ‘droughts’, with insufficient attention paid to other drivers. We analyse humanitarian documents and climate outlook statements in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and assess how these are reflected in the humanitarian responses to food insecurity in the region by analysing the financing of humanitarian operations. Our findings indicate that the continued evolution in understanding the complex causes of food insecurity and attempts to move away from emergency relief to a more sophisticated approach has not translated into an observable change in humanitarian responses. The reasons behind this persistence of short-term relief, which is being justified with reference to climatic factors, mainly drought, would warrant further research into the decision-making process that triggers humanitarian responses.

List of abbreviations: ACF: Action Contre le Faim; DCM: Drought Cycle Management; DEC: Disaster Emergency Committee; ECHO: European Commission Humanitarian Office; EU: European Union; EWS: Early Warning System; FAO: Food and Agricultural Organization; FEWSNET: Famine Early Warning System Network; FSNAU: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit; FTS: Financial Tracking Service; GHACOF: Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum; GIEWS: Global Information and Early Warning System; IASC: Inter Agency Standing Committee; ICPAC: IGAD Climate Application and Prediction Centre; IFRC: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority on Development; IPCC: International Panel for Climate Change; LEWS: Livestock Early Warning System; ODI: Overseas Development Initiative; PASDEP: Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to Eradicate Poverty; PSNP: Productive Safety Net Programme; UNDRO: United Nations Disaster Relief Office; UNISDR: United Nations International; UN OCHA: United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; USAID: United States Agency for International Development; WFP: World Food Programme     

灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的评估

根据灾害造成的人员伤亡的特点和灾害损失评估的目的 ,提出了评估灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的基本原则 ,即系统化评估原则、从整个国家和社会的角度出发进行评估的原则、基于灾害后果的评估原则、“有无对比”的原则、货币计量与非货币计量相结合以货币计量为主的原则、不考虑沉没成本的原则和基于未来获利能力的原则。在给出灾害造成的人员伤亡的数量及其分布状况的假设后 ,应用人力资源价值理论 ,提出了评估灾害造成的人员伤亡价值损失的方法和模型。为采用统一价值尺度评估灾害损失提供了基础 ,也使得灾害损失评估理论与方法体系更趋于完善。     

Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters: 1966–2017

ABSTRACT

The paper updates normalisation of the Insurance Council of Australia’s Disaster List in the light of debate about the contribution of global warming to the rising cost of natural disasters. Normalisation estimates losses from historical events in a common year, here ‘season’ 2017 defined as the 12-month period from 1 July 2017. The number and nominal cost of new residential dwellings are key normalising factors and post-1974 improvements in construction standards in tropical cyclone-prone parts of the country are explicitly allowed for. 94% of the normalised losses arise from weather-related perils – bushfires, tropical cyclones, floods and severe storms – with the 1999 Sydney hailstorm the most costly single event (AUD5.6 billion). When aggregated by season, there is no trend in normalised losses from weather-related perils; in other words, after we normalise for changes we know to have taken place, no residual signal remains to be explained by changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events, regardless of cause. In sum, the rising cost of natural disasters is being driven by where and how we chose to live and with more people living in vulnerable locations with more to lose, natural disasters remain an important problem irrespective of a warming climate.     

唐山地震中人员伤亡情况的分析及若干启示

唐山大地震对人的伤害是立体的,人员伤亡的主要原因是房屋建筑的倒塌．唐山市区被废墟埋压者中有约84％的人活了下来．唐山地震中人员伤亡情况的分析,对如何减少地震伤亡以及有效开展救灾活动,提供了有益经验。