提高多震区建筑物抗震能力--保证地震安全的最佳选择

目前,地震预报远未成熟而达到实用化阶段.造成人员生命和财产严重损失的是建筑设施等的倒塌和破坏.为了最大限度地减轻灾害,最佳选择是要提高建筑物的抗震性.这里介绍目前得到迅速发展并在世界各地重要建筑上得到广泛应用而具有防震减灾实效的抗震技术--建筑隔震技术.     

地震灾害对中国农村居民的影响研究--以云南省大姚县为例

通过对2003年7月21日和10月16日分别发生6.2和6.1级地震的云南省大姚县居民的问卷调查,分析了地震灾害对中困农村居民的影响,了解了我国农村居民尤其是地震多发区农村居民对地震灾害的风险意识以及在地震灾害中的反应.调查结果表明:中国农村居民是地震灾害的最大受害者和风险承担者.虽然他们会在地震灾害中汲取经验教训,增强风险防范意识,但是由于经济水平、自然环境等客观条件的影响,他们只能被动地承受地震灾害,而不能从根本上改变承灾体的脆弱性.中国农村地震减灾、防灾能力的加强需要政府管理部门的积极参与.     

Post-disaster resettlement, development and change: a case study of the 1990 Manjil earthquake in Iran

Planned and involuntary resettlement after natural disasters has been a major policy in post-disaster reconstruction in developing countries over the past few decades. Studies show that resettlement can result in significant adverse impacts on the resettled population. Conversely, a well-planned and managed resettlement process can produce positive long-term development outcomes. This article presents the results of a case study undertaken 11 years after the 1990 Manjil earthquake in Iran. During the reconstruction period, a policy of involuntary planned resettlement was pursued extensively. The socioeconomic changes that occurred as a consequence of this policy of involuntary resettlement are analysed. Data were collected via a questionnaire survey that involved a sample of 194 relocated households (grouped into a settlement that later became a town). The paper shows that relocated families face difficult socioeconomic challenges after relocation and regrouping. This is especially true with respect to employment, income, the empowerment of women and lifestyle issues.     

Understanding the interacting factors that influence social vulnerability: a case study of the 2016 central Italy earthquake

This paper seeks to identify those areas that proved socially vulnerable to the earthquake that struck central Italy on 24 August 2016. The study involved four key steps. First, six relevant social vulnerability indicators were selected, based on previous conclusions in the literature. Second, the indicators were mapped using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method. Third, social vulnerability was assessed according to a spatial combination of the indicators. Fourth, in order to build a heterogeneity map, another approach was employed to represent the spatial variability of social vulnerability and to provide additional information on the synergistic contributions of the indicators. The results indicate that age and accessibility indicators affect the entire region under review, with highly vulnerable zones being close to small historical centres. These findings will be useful to governments, policymakers, and stakeholders with regard to implementing vulnerability mitigation strategies in Italian territories that are highly susceptible to earthquake hazards.     

An exploratory study on perceptions of seismic risk and mitigation in two districts of Istanbul

Istanbul is one of the world's cities most vulnerable to seismic events. According to seismologists, the probability of a severe earthquake in the next 30 years is approximately 40 per cent. Following an outline of the seismicity of this vital Turkish city and a summary of current seismic risks and mitigation studies, this paper presents the results of a survey conducted in two districts of Istanbul, Avcilar and Bakirkoy. The survey comprised some 60 questions on the seismic risk perceptions of individuals and requested basic personal data, such as on age, education level, employment type, financial income, and gender. Despite various differences among the survey population, such as academic background and level of financial income, responses were surprisingly similar, especially in terms of having no plan for a safer house. The data may help those planning mitigation programmes and public awareness campaigns on preparedness and particularly mitigation in highly vulnerable regions.     

应急避难场所的规划建设——基于玉树地震调查数据的研究

对玉树地震灾区的应急避难情况进行了实际考察和问卷调查,基于所获取的数据分析了应急避难及紧急疏散中存在的问题,在总结多次地震灾区经验教训和国内外部分城市应急避难场所建设经验的基础上,对应急避难场所的功能设计及运营管理提出了建议。     

马来西亚雪兰莪州生态环境脆弱度评价——基于逐次投影寻踪模型的研究

以马来西亚雪兰俄州为例,利用逐次投影寻踪模型进行了生态环境脆弱度评价。在评价过程中,评价指标中加入了基于遥感的表征指标,并且通过逐次投影寻踪模型确定指标权重。结果表明,该地区的生态环境脆弱度不断加重,生态环境逐渐恶化;加入遥感表征指标,并基于逐次投影寻踪模型进行的生态环境脆弱度评价能,更好地反映研究区的生态环境脆弱度态势。     

Attrition and housing improvements: A study of post-disaster housing after three years

This research is part of an effort to monitor houses built for victims of hurricane Fifi in 1975. After 3 years (1978) we interviewed the residents to determine the rate of continued occupancy and the amount of housing improvement and the correlates of both. We found that a significant number of small families, Protestants, and families that had not participated in the construction of the housing had moved. From what we could determine, moving was primarily related to seeking work and improving one's financial position.
Nearly 90% of the permanent occupants had improved their houses with either indigenous or manufactured materials. Non-improvement of houses was concentrated among families with few members. The largest number of unimproved houses was located in the project that sewed the poorest victims and contained the cheapest housing.     

“5.12”地震次生地质灾害分析——以青川、平武县为例

5.12汶川特大地震诱发了大量的次生地质灾害,造成了山体大面积滑坡、崩塌、泥石流及堰塞湖等,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失。在对平武、青川县地质、水文、气象条件等地面调查的基础上,以多源遥感数据为信息源,结合3S技术,解译了次生地质灾害及潜在地质灾害体,并进一步探讨了震后次生地质灾害的发生、分布规律。研究成果对灾后重建、高山峡谷地震多发区的防灾及灾害遥感机理研究具有借鉴意义。     

基于气候变化的干旱脆弱性评价——以青海东部为例

基于青海东部农业区22个县区的20个气象、农业、社会经济统计指标,利用层次分析法和等级化等数学分析方法,分别进行了暴露性、敏感性和适应性的评价,再通过分析承险体的内在脆弱性,将气候变化和内在脆弱性进行综合分析,得到了青海东部干旱脆弱性等级。结果表明:在目前全球变暖背景下,干旱脆弱性最高的是民和、化隆,较高的是城中、城北区、湟中、大通等四县区,门源、互助、同仁、同德的干旱脆弱性中等。在此基础上,提出了强化旱灾的风险管理模式、倡导节约型水资源开发利用模式等干旱防范措施。     

家户水灾社会脆弱性的评估方法研究——以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一，研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有着极为重要的意义。但是，合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战。利用Hoovering改进模式，选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区，对研究区内的家户进行了社会脆弱性评价。结果表明，长沙市区的5个区内，高脆弱性家户最多的是天心区，最少的是雨花区。而就社区而言，高脆弱性家户最多的足裕南街街道和桔子洲街道。该结果反映了长沙不同行政区、社区社会脆弱性的差别，可供确定受援地区和受援人群及开展援助活动，乃至灾后日常风险管理参考。     

城市房屋震害的区域分析法--与点特征判据算法的对比研究

根据高分辨率遥感影像震害房屋的基本特征,提出在该影像条件下,震害房屋信息的自动获取技术应发展以区域分析为基础的识别算法,并给出了适于震害房屋信息获取的区域分析算法的基本概念、框架及实现过程.在此基础上,介绍了一种典型的区域分析框架下的震害房屋自动识别算法,并与点特征判据算法进行了对比.结果表明,基于图像区域分析算法的识别具有很高的精度和易于实现的客观条件.最后指出,在高分辨率卫星遥感影像将成为今后震害信息获取主要数据源的情况下,开发区域分析框架下的震害房屋信息识别算法是未来的发展方向.     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

Superstorm Sandy and voter vulnerability in the 2012 US Presidential Election: a case study of New Jersey and Connecticut

Superstorm Sandy was an unprecedented meteorological event that devastated the Caribbean and the Northeastern Coast of the USA in October 2012. While many research efforts will focus on the atmospheric conditions that led to the creation and unusual track of the storm, this study evaluates the impact of Sandy on voter turnout in the 2012 US Presidential Election. The goals of this paper are to (1) determine if any alterations in voter turnout occurred, (2) assess the extent to which Sandy was responsible for any voter turnout changes and (3) investigate if the influence of Sandy on voter turnout was contingent upon social vulnerability. To accomplish these goals, voter turnout change between the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential Elections was analysed at the county and municipal level for both New Jersey and Connecticut. The notable decreases in voter turnout discovered in both states were likely due to the election occurring in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. The correlation, spatial clustering analysis, analysis of variance and multiple regression results all suggest that storm surge was more likely to be responsible for reduced voter turnout in New Jersey than in Connecticut. Specifically in New Jersey, the findings indicate that storm surge coverage, rather than height, was influential in reducing voter turnout and that this relationship was contingent upon the racial composition of the municipalities. Overall, understanding how Sandy affected voter turnout will help improve the resiliency of electoral systems to future natural disasters.     

岩土震害影响因子权重研究——以砂土液化为例

以砂土液化影响因子的权重计算为例,探讨了一种兼顾主、客观因素的权重确定方法。首先分别使用层次分析法和粗糙集理论计算砂土液化影响因子的主、客观权重值。然后对所得到的主、客观权重值进行检验,得到各自的预测准确性,根据对其准确性进行比较得到主、客观权重值偏好系数,最终按照偏好系数对主、客观权重值进行计算得到综合权重值。并对所得到的综合权重进行验证,其预测准确率为91.7%,说明该方法具有比较高的准确性。通过研究发现,对主、客观权重通过偏好系数进行综合,可以较好的平衡两者的影响作用,能够提高权重分析的准确性;通过对砂土液化影响因子权重的分析发现地震作用对其影响要大于土体埋藏环境和土体自身性质,在所有影响因子中有效应力的影响最大,其权重达到了0.205。     

中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda,Florida, after Hurricane Charley

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery is critical to enhancing understanding of the process and improving the decisions that shape it. Nevertheless, few comprehensive empirical evaluations of post‐disaster housing recovery have been conducted, and no standard measurement methods exist. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of housing recovery in Punta Gorda, Florida, United States, following Hurricane Charley of August 2004, including an overview of the phases of housing recovery, progression of recovery over time, alternative trajectories of recovery, differential recovery, incorporation of mitigation, and effect on property sales. The assessment is grounded in a conceptual framework that considers the recovery of both people and place, and that emphasises recovery as a process, not as an endpoint. Several data sources are integrated into the assessment—including building permits, remotely sensed imagery, and property appraiser data—and their strengths and limitations are discussed with a view to developing a standardised method for measuring and monitoring housing recovery.     

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.     

农业旱灾形成过程中的承灾体脆弱性分析--以湖南鼎城为例

农业旱灾的形成是降水不足或不均与农业生产系统脆弱性共同作用的结果,承灾体脆弱性的高低会起到“放大“或“缩小“灾情的作用,因此降低承灾体的脆弱性是抗灾减灾的主要和有效途径.选择湖南省鼎城区为研究区,通过分析灾前期-灾中期旱灾的形成过程及其与承灾体脆弱性的关系,分别针对轻度干旱和中重度干旱建立了评价指标体系,采用加权求和法对水田-水稻农业生产系统的脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明,该区的承灾体脆弱性分布存在一定的区域差异,脆弱度由高至低排序为西北岗地区、南部低山/丘陵区、中部平原/岗地区、东北湖/平原区,这一分析结果与实际灾情的分布规律基本一致.通过分析脆弱性分布规律和变化原因,发现地形和灌溉分别是影响灾前期和灾中期承灾体脆弱性的最重要因素,进而提出了具体的减灾防灾建议.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.