地震预警系统应用的社会影响调查与分析

地震预警系统建设是降低地震灾害的一个重要途径,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失,但地震预警系统目前还处于发展阶段,应用中存在一定风险。设计了若干个关于地震预警系统应用的社会调查问卷,以通过调查结果定性地评估地震预警系统产生的社会影响,统计公众对预警系统的认识和需求,分析预警信息发布对公众的影响和公众对地震漏报、误报等风险的接受程度,以及地震预警系统相关的法律问题。调查结果显示,我国公众对地震预警系统的期望程度及有效性评价均很高,但也存在着一些问题,如对地震预警相关知识了解较少,对紧急事件应变能力较差,对预警盲区和漏报等风险接受程度较低等。最后,结合国外地震预警系统的研究成果和应用现状,提出了相关建议及应对措施,希望能对我国预警系统的建设提供参考作用。     

Framework for integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge for disaster risk reduction

A growing awareness of the value of indigenous knowledge has prompted calls for its use within disaster risk reduction. The use of indigenous knowledge alongside scientific knowledge is increasingly advocated but there is as yet no clearly developed framework demonstrating how the two may be integrated to reduce community vulnerability to environmental hazards. This paper presents such a framework, using a participatory approach in which relevant indigenous and scientific knowledge may be integrated to reduce a community's vulnerability to environmental hazards. Focusing on small island developing states it presents an analysis of the need for such a framework alongside the difficulties of incorporating indigenous knowledge. This is followed by an explanation of the various processes within the framework, drawing on research completed in Papua New Guinea. This framework is an important first step in identifying how indigenous and scientific knowledge may be integrated to reduce community vulnerability to environmental hazards.     

台湾的人口,震害与防震减灾问题

众所周知,台湾是西太平洋弧形列岛中的一环,是我国也是全球地震的高发地带。对于地震,同其它自然灾害一样,应重在预防。增加生产和减灾防灾是社会经济建设问题的两个方面,二者相辅相成,缺一不可.因此,本文结合台湾现今的人口密度、经济发展等情况,讨论了台湾的减轻地震灾害问题,希望能引起台湾方面的重视。     

印度大地震的可预警信息研究

20 0 1 0 1 2 6印度西北部的普杰地区发生了 7 8级强烈地震。对这次强震事件 ,利用卫星遥感监测地气系统射出长波辐射的数值产品资料 ,分析了以普杰为中心整个西亚范围内 ,事件发生前后共计 6个月的月平均辐射场的分布特征及其演变过程。发现自震前 2个月至震时当月 ,普杰地区始终是一个辐射 (热 )场的高值中心 ,震后明显消散。据此认为印度大地震有可识别的预警信息 ,提出利用卫星遥感技术及其产品 ,有可能为“突破”短临地震预报开拓出一种新的预测技术生长点     

The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states

The benefits of indigenous knowledge within disaster risk reduction are gradually being acknowledged and identified. However, despite this acknowledgement there continues to be a gap in reaching the right people with the correct strategies for disaster risk reduction.

This paper identifies the need for a specific framework identifying how indigenous and western knowledge may be combined to mitigate against the intrinsic effects of environmental processes and therefore reduce the vulnerability of rural indigenous communities in small island developing states (SIDS) to environmental hazards. This involves a review of the impacts of environmental processes and their intrinsic effects upon rural indigenous communities in SIDS and how indigenous knowledge has contributed to their coping capacity. The paper concludes that the vulnerability of indigenous communities in SIDS to environmental hazards can only be addressed through the utilisation of both indigenous and Western knowledge in a culturally compatible and sustainable manner.     

The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states

The benefits of indigenous knowledge within disaster risk reduction are gradually being acknowledged and identified. However, despite this acknowledgement there continues to be a gap in reaching the right people with the correct strategies for disaster risk reduction.This paper identifies the need for a specific framework identifying how indigenous and western knowledge may be combined to mitigate against the intrinsic effects of environmental processes and therefore reduce the vulnerability of rural indigenous communities in small island developing states (SIDS) to environmental hazards. This involves a review of the impacts of environmental processes and their intrinsic effects upon rural indigenous communities in SIDS and how indigenous knowledge has contributed to their coping capacity. The paper concludes that the vulnerability of indigenous communities in SIDS to environmental hazards can only be addressed through the utilisation of both indigenous and Western knowledge in a culturally compatible and sustainable manner.     

《汶川地震建筑物震害遥感解译图集》的编制

2008年四川汶川8.0级地震造成了惨重的人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失。在震后灾害监测、应急指挥与抢险救援、灾害调查、损失评估、灾民安置、恢复重建以及地震科学研究等工作中,遥感技术发挥了重要作用。《汶川地震建筑物震害遥感解译图集》根据地震后地震现场建筑物震害遥感比对科学考察资料和震害遥感资料分析处理结果,按照科学性、知识性和资料性的编制原则编制而成。主要包括汶川大地震发生的地震地质、地势和社会环境,灾区遥感影像获取、建筑物震害影像特点与实际震害表现、震害遥感定量评估方法、汶川大地震灾区(Ⅷ度及以上地区)震害遥感定量评估模型,以及主要城市和乡镇震害遥感影像和震害评估结果等。     

全球定位系统和常规仪器远距离边坡监测及预报系统的应用

介绍了最近由香港理工大学开发的边坡自动化监测系统,阐述了该监测系统在实际边坡的监测中的有关问题。监测结果表明,该系统使用方便,工作稳定可靠,可实时监测到边坡的一些重要参数,进而用来预测边坡的稳定状况。     

滇西某铁路拟选线路地质灾害遥感解译特征研究

以SPOT-4/5卫星影像为信息源,以ERDA S 8.7软件为处理平台,运用多种图像处理方法对影像进行综合处理,在此基础上对滇西山区某铁路选线勘察进行了实例研究。根据滇西山区地质灾害的分布规律及遥感影像特征,结合地学知识对该线路部分区段的地质灾害进行遥感解译,查明了区段内滑坡、泥石流及崩塌对线路的影响,为该铁路拟选线路的建设提供了科学依据。     

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5–14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.     

溧阳市社区居民防震减灾科学素质调查研究

为了解溧阳地震四十年来该地居民防震减灾科学素质情况,通过问卷调查的方式对社区居民的个人基本信息、防震减灾科学知识理解、知识需求和偏好,以及对江苏省防震减灾科普宣教工作的评价进行调研。采用SPSS软件进行数据处理。结果表明,溧阳市社区居民防震减灾科学知识水平处于中等偏上水平,但对地震预报信息发布和相关法律法规认知方面还有欠缺;防震减灾知识需求强烈且务实,最想了解的是自救互救知识,偏好科普讲座和应急演练活动;对我省防震减灾科普宣传工作的评价为中等偏上,在评价过程中,最主要的影响因子是防震减灾科普知识实用性、宣传品质和渠道。本次调查为今后开展溧阳市社区防震减灾科普宣传工作提供了理论依据。     

农村气象灾害防御体系理论模型初探

根据灾害防御基本原理,简要分析了气象灾害致灾因子对气象灾害防御的影响。在此基础上,结合浙江、重庆、山西、辽宁、安徽、江西、广东、内蒙、贵州等省市的农村气象灾害防御实践,借鉴国外灾害防御体制建设和机制设计的经验,探索性提出了组成农村气象灾害防御体系的6项基本内容,即农村气象灾害风险识别与评价、农村气象灾害监测与预警发布机制、气象灾害预警信息传播与应急响应、气象灾害防御组织体系、气象灾害防御的工程体系以及气象灾害防御的法制化;构建了农村气象灾害防御体系的理论模型;并在专业能力支撑、行政支持、组织保障、政策法规等方面,对未来农村气象灾害防御体系建设提出了建议。     

现代科技发展与科技期刊编辑

阐述了现代科学技术的发展特征，分析了现代科技对科技期刊的影响以及科技期刊在国家科技创新体系中的地位和作用，指出科技期刊要主动适应科学技术发展趋势，科技期刊编辑要及时了解科技发展，培养和树立信息意识，掌握电子编辑手段与技能，早作“转岗”的培训，只有这样，才能适应时代对编辑工作的要求。     

岩溶隧道突涌水预警体系的建立

为加强岩溶隧道突涌水预警的准确性,基于理论分析方法及岩溶隧道实际特点,提出溶洞侵入及未侵入隧道两类情况下的岩溶隧道突涌水预警体系的建立方法.通过理论分析,确定了突涌水的主要影响因素及其发生过程中变化显著的监测项目.选择溶洞特质、水的变化、岩盘破损程度、节理裂隙形态为预警体系的主要评价指标.根据溶洞与隧道相对位置关系,建...     

泥石流早期识别与监测预警研究进展探讨

近年来,受极端地震和极端天气的影响,泥石流灾害日益加剧,山区城镇泥石流风险问题逐渐引起大众的关注。泥石流的早期识别和监测预警作为防灾减灾的有效途径之一,已在山区城镇及重大工程建设区发挥重要的减灾作用。分析总结泥石流早期识别与监测预警技术方法和理论的目的在于掌握其发展现状与问题,进一步为山区城镇泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供有效应急对策。同时指出改进当前存在问题可为后期发展提供参考依据。本文通过文献综述法在阅读大量文献基础上,从技术与设备、预警理论与模型和监测预警体系3个方面对泥石流早期识别和监测预警研究进行回顾与评述,并针对其不足提出了加强深度学习在泥石流早期识别中运用,注重构建地面因素与天上因素耦合的泥石流预警模型,完善泥石流灾害应急系统的初步看法。     

Improving flood warnings in Europe: a research and policy agenda

Abstract

Warnings and emergency planning for flooding are based on the reality that no matter how thorough our investigations and flood prevention efforts through engineered structural works or land use management, some risk will always remain. This paper examines recent experience with flood warnings in the UK and continental Europe. It combines this experience with an overview of the relevant literature to identify lessons for incorporation into policy, and problem areas which would most obviously benefit from additional research. Throughout, the emphasis is on the non-engineering aspects of warning systems. Results indicate that much is being achieved in terms of the detail of warning design, but the broader issues seem to be largely ignored by both the research literature and practice. First among these broader issues is the failure, by those charged with warning system development and operation, to conceptualise the warning task as one based explicitly on the needs of those at risk. Making this happen will require the development of processes to build the necessary culture of cooperation and learning among the many organisations involved.     

海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸引发了新一轮海啸预警系统的研究。简述了地震海啸预警的原理，分析了海啸数值模拟的一些基本方法，综述了目前世界上多个国家海啸预警系统的建设情况，通过对我国海啸灾害研究现状的分析，明确了我国当前海啸防灾减灾工作的主要任务。     

上海市居民对城市暴雨内涝的风险感知与适应行为研究

气候变化背景下,适应城市极端天气风险不仅是政府的责任,也越来越需要公众参与。然而,对风险感知、适应感知和适应行为响应的影响因素,以及三者之间的内在联系还缺乏系统认识。通过问卷调研上海市居民发现：(1)风险感知可以促进适应感知,二者均与收入和教育水平等显著正相关。(2)与关注预警信息和使用防水防潮材料等个人适应行为相比,居民对集体行为的响应程度更高,如增加绿地面积和提高监测预警准确性等。(3)适应行为的影响因素可归纳为：信息通达性、社区归属感、适应意愿、适应激励、风险感知和适应感知,其中信息通达性和适应激励是显著提高个人适应行为的关键因素。     

动物行为异常与地震灾害预警

地震前地壳中的应力变化会引起在一定区域范围内的地球物理场与地球化学场变化。动物有感受这种变化的能力,在地震发生前数天或数小时,动物可能会不安、抑郁或狂躁、迁徙或逃亡。动物的这种能力是在长期进化过程中形成的,动物在自我保护的同时有可能为人类提供地震预警信号。本文概述了动物感受地震灾害的机制,分析了从基因遗传水平上解释动物地震灾害避险能力的途径,阐述了找出可能作为灾害预警信号的特有动物异常反应的意义,讨论了建立试验性地震灾害动物行为异常预警系统的方法。     

Resilience in the context of tsunami early warning systems and community disaster preparedness in the Indian Ocean Region

This paper discusses insights from post-tsunami early warning system (EWS) development in Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia by analysing selected elements of resilience, based on the Coastal Community Resilience (CCR) framework, and by distinguishing between the cognitive, normative and procedural dimensions of EWSs. The findings indicate that (1) recent calls to develop participatory and people-centred EWSs as promoted by the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005—2015 have not been sufficiently translated into action in the implementation of national policies and strategies for early warning; (2) policy and guidance places significantly more emphasis on the procedural compared to the normative and cognitive dimensions of EWSs; (3) practitioners engaged in early warning and disaster risk reduction operate in contexts shaped by multiple stakeholder agendas and face considerable challenges in negotiating diverse needs and priorities; and (4) few platforms currently exist that enable stakeholders to coordinate and reconcile agendas, negotiate joint targets, share knowledge and critically reflect on lessons learnt, and to improve the integration of early warning with other priorities such as livelihoods improvement, natural resource management and community development.