Climate change and disaster management

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.     

Farmers' perceptions of implementation of climate variability disaster preparedness strategies in Central Uganda

This paper examines smallholder farmers' perceptions of the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness strategies in Mpigi district in Central Uganda. Furthermore, existing community early actions against climate change disasters were investigated. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions at the community level. Using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 16, data obtained through semi-structured interviews were subjected to quantitative analysis to generate percentages for several variables and cross-tabulation analyses between selected variables. Farmers perceived prolonged droughts, increased pests and diseases outbreaks in crops and livestock as a consequence of climate change as the major climate change disasters. They considered the implementation of climate change disaster preparedness at community and village level as inadequate. This triggered implementation of various early actions by farmers as responses to climate change disasters. These actions constitute an informal community-based early warning system against climate change disasters.     

Climate,urbanisation and vulnerability to vector-borne disease in subtropical coastal Australia: Sustainable policy for a changing environment

This paper examines the current health policy response to the management of vector-borne disease (VBD), specifically Ross River (RR) virus, in subtropical coastal Australia. It demonstrates the multi-dimensional nature of the VBD problem and considers the value of more sustainable policy responses. The paper provides an integrated exploration of the incidence of RR virus in the context of socio-biophysical interactions and change, climate variability, and possible enhanced threat due to climate change. The study focuses on two subtropical coastal case study regions in Australia. Collectively, the existing and emerging socio-biophysical interactions in these regionsraise questions as to the future risks and management of RR virus, while climate change adds a significant further dimension. The paper demonstrates the need for the incorporation of environmental planning elements, particularly attention to strategic assessment and planning, into the traditional suite of health policy responses given the multi-dimensional nature of the problem and evident socio-biophysical environmental change.     

气候变化对我国农业的可能影响及适应性对策

全球气候变暖已经成了一个不争的事实。在全球气候变化背景下,我国的气温不断增高,降水和极端天气气候事件不断增多。根据气候变化情景,从区域布局、种植结构、农作物产量和品质以及设施农业等方面分析了气候变化对我国农业的可能影响,并提出了我国农业应对气候变化的适应性对策。     

气候变化背景下城市综合防灾规划自适应研究

探讨了城市总体规划层面如何进行气候适应性考量,提出在气候变化背景下自适应的城市综合防灾规划策略应全面渗透到城市总体规划的关键规划要素,尤其是土地使用规划和各专业系统规划中,而不应仅仅提出一些传统、孤立的应对措施。气候变化会导致潜在不适宜开发建设的用地范围大幅增加,加强论证气候变化对用地适宜性的影响,适度扩大禁建区和限建区的范围,是有效预防各类气象灾害及次生灾害的前提。各专业系统规划技术规范需加紧修订,突破传统思维,不能完全孤立地考虑单一的规划目标,进行气候适应性调整,并要积极预防不适应气候变化的已建人工构筑物成为事故灾害源。     

Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards.     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。     

The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Ni?o, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.     

全球气候变化的成因探析

探析了引起全球气候变化的温室气体效应、太阳变化、火山喷发、对流层气溶胶等外部强迫效应，以及导致大气和海洋间能量再分配的埃尔尼诺事件等所引起的气候变化。进一步讨论了气候系统内部的、涉及地球生物学和化学的几种气候反馈机制。     

风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展

基于风险理论,探讨了气候变化风险的内涵,介绍了可用于气候变化影响评价的风险评估概念框架,并着重总结了风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用。随着目前概率型气候情景的广泛应用及利益相关者与公众对影响评估中的不确定性认识的需求,风险评估将在气候变化影响评价中得到更为广泛的应用,气候变化对农业的影响也有望基于风险形式实现终端至终端的评估。同时,当前气候变化农业影响的风险评估研究仍有许多不足之处,真正实现综合全面的评估尚有诸多问题需要解决。     

全球气候变化情景下的河北省区域减灾建设

全球气候变化将导致一些地区自然灾害加剧,并将影响到区域的可持续发展.加强区域减灾建设,及早采取相应措施,是适应未来全球气候变化的明智选择.鉴于全球气候变化的影响存在区域差异,不同区域采取的对策也有所区别.本文以河北省为例,分析了该区域自然灾害的类型、历史时期和现在灾害的特点、发生规律及其原因,并根据该区域未来的全球气候变化趋势,提出了一些需要及早实施的战略性减灾对策.     

Mountain inhabitants’ perspectives on climate change,and its impacts and adaptation based on temporal and spatial characteristics analysis: a case study of Mt. Yulong Snow,Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Based on the results of questionnaires issued to 202 local residents in the Mount Yulong Snow region, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, this study analyzes mountain residents’ perspectives on climate change and its impacts, their strategies to adapt to climate change impacts, including their willingness or otherwise to become ecological migrants, and some of the factors that influence their perceptions. Overall, local perception of climate change and its impacts corresponds to the patterns of observed climate change revealed by climate records. The intensity of climate change perception shows a highly significant correlation with residents’ age and villages’ elevation gradient. Most respondents did not believe that climate change affected crop growing and their yields, but the number of crop insect pests was thought to be increasing slightly and the crop growth period to be extending. Nearly all respondents believed that climate change seriously affects the mountain tourism economy, and their way of life and spiritual world. Persistent drought in recent years has forced mountain dwellers to adjust industrial structure, save water in the agricultural economy, participate in mountain tourism and work outside the home in order to adapt to climate change impacts and supplement their meager farm incomes. Additionally, residents expect to receive government compensation and relief to mitigate natural disaster damage.     

Public perception of drought and climate change in southeast England

Droughts occur as a natural feature of many climates. Several southern areas of the UK experienced water stress during 2004–2006 because of low water availability and high water demand. Climate change scenarios suggest that drought frequency could increase here in the future. This will increase the competition for water across all sectors. Understanding people's perceptions of drought and climate change is likely to be an important factor for sustainable water management by pointing to barriers to behavioural change. A mixed methodology study using questionnaires and focus groups was conducted in the Anglian and southern regions of the UK to explore public perceptions of drought and climate change. Respondents attributed the 2004–2006 regional drought to lower than average rainfall. Water-intensive lifestyles, a growth in population, increasing housing developments, leaking pipes and the privatization of water companies were also implicated. The majority of respondents claimed to change their behaviour to conserve water during 2006. Regarding the future, and under a number of different scenarios, people were more inclined to accept restrictions than agree to pay more to ensure the supply of water. They were concerned about climate change and recognized that more frequent water shortages may be one of the impacts, but this concern did not necessarily translate into action. Barriers to engagement with climate change and water-efficient behaviour included a lack of accessible information, a lack of knowledge regarding the integration of environmental spheres, a lack of resources, and a perceived lack of institutional engagement. The barriers identified appear to pose a major challenge to successful adaptation to climate change.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: homeowners and wildfire risk

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental beliefs, and hazard mitigation actions in the context of wildfire, a natural hazard projected to be intensified by climate change. We find that survey respondents are situated across a continuum between being ‘believers’ and ‘deniers’ that is multidimensional. Placement on this believer–denier spectrum is related to general environmental attitudes. We fail, however, to find a relationship between climate change beliefs and wildfire risk-reduction actions in general. In contrast, we find a statistically significant positive relationship between level of wildfire risk mitigation and being a climate denier. Further, certain pro-environmental attitudes are found to have a statistically significant negative association with the level of wildfire risk mitigation.     

Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate variability: a study of the Tonga‐speaking people of Southern Zambia

There is increasing consensus that the effects of extreme weather conditions in the form of drought, flooding and extreme temperature will have increasingly devastating impacts on those who depend on climate‐sensitive resources and ecosystems for their livelihoods. The most affected will be the poor in developing countries who have a low adaptive capacity to climate change due to high poverty levels. Despite these projections, there are, to date, insufficient empirical studies linking the relationship between climate change and migration, particularly in the context of southern Africa. Using field‐based data collected from two study locations in Zambia, this paper examines the complex relationship between extreme weather events and population movement. It is envisaged that the findings presented in this paper will contribute to current discussions on the complex relationship between extreme weather conditions and population movement specifically in the context of sub‐Saharan Africa and other developing countries.     

基于植被-气候最大响应模型的草地退化评价

草地植被生长现状及变化趋势的宏观监测,对草地资源的管理及生态建设有着重要的理论指导和实践监督意义。然而,多数的草地退化程度评价都没有考虑草地植被对气候条件年际变化的敏感性,评价"基准"不一,致使对草地退化程度评价的结果也无从比较,给草地生态建设恢复工作的实施与监督带来不便。基于植被-气候最大响应模型的草地退化评价方法,认为非气候因子(如病虫害、野火、放牧和人类活动等等)如果对草地植被的生长影响过度,就会造成草地植被生产力下降等后果。因此,利用长期的遥感数据和气象观测资料的空间插值结果,查找特定气候条件下同种类型草地植被所能达到的最大生产力,即可建立一定时间空间范围内草地植被生产力与气候条件的最大响应模型,以此作为草地退化的评价"基准",可对草地植被的生长状态及其变化过程进行监测与评价。对锡林郭勒盟草地植被退化状态及其变化趋势的评价结果表明:非气候因子导致的锡林郭勒盟草地退化非常严重,但从多年变化趋势来看,全盟的草地退化面积和平均退化程度均有减小的趋势。     

Decreasing the knowledge gap among different socioeconomic status groups on the issue of climate change

Climate change is causing severe negative consequences to small low-lying islands. To mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is important to improve public knowledge on its causes and consequences. As a social issue that needs collective action to address, the knowledge gap among different segments of population would be a barrier to people’s behaviors toward mitigation and adaption to climate change. This study aims to investigate public knowledge acquisition of climate change by revisiting the knowledge gap hypothesis. A nationally representative random computer-assisted telephone interview survey (N?=?1093) was conducted in Singapore. Quantitative analyses revealed that both newspaper reading and television viewing could reduce the knowledge gap between high and low socioeconomic status individuals. We recommend that governments and relevant authorities should utilize mass media to disseminate information and cultivate public understanding of climate change.     

气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响

人类活动所引起的温室效应及由此造成的气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响已受到国际社会的普遍关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统重要的干扰因子,对森林生态系统碳循环产生重要影响以及对未来气候变化的响应更是人们关注的重点。正确理解气候变暖、火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环之间的因果循环关系,了解气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响,对制定科学合理的林火管理策略、充分发挥林火管理在森林生态系统碳循环和碳平衡以及缓解碳排放中的作用均有重要的意义。系统论述了气候变暖、火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环之间的逻辑循环关系,并对相关的研究进展进行综述。重点剖析了气候变暖对火干扰的影响,气候变暖背景下火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响,并提出了全球变暖背景下科学有效的林火管理策略与措施,以及今后需要加强的一些研究领域及方向。