Stimulating flood damage mitigation through insurance: an assessment of the French CatNat system

Flood risk has increased in France in the last 20 years and is projected to increase further in the future due to climate change and increase in exposure. Since 1982, France has had a natural disasters insurance system (‘CatNat’) in place that covers flood damage. This insurance system has been combined with what are called ‘Risk Prevention Plans’ (PPRs) in order to stimulate the undertaking of flood risk mitigation measures by communities and households. However, these schemes do not provide optimal incentives for flood damage reduction. This is confirmed by the results from a survey about flood preparedness of 885 households who live in flood-prone areas in France, which are presented in this paper. Moreover, this study provides suggestions for improvement, which are assessed on their potential economic, social and political implications. Among these suggestions are increasing the effectiveness of PPRs and increasing the incentives to apply and implement PPRs; improving the monitoring of the implementation of damage mitigation measures; and the possibility to differentiate premiums and deductibles according to flood risk.     

The Oder – a river that floods: the problem of environmental adaptation in literary texts

This article discusses inter and post-war works of fiction written by Polish and German-speaking authors with biographical connections to Oder River regions. The literary texts provide insights into the vulnerability to and resilience constructions of floods, which are related to such cultural factors as migrant histories and traditions, regional beliefs and religion, and the political background of changing frontiers in 1919 and 1945 that affected residents of this cross-border area.

The capacity to cope with the flooding Oder, especially after the major flood in 1997, intertwines with the problematic Polish-German relationship, including Silesia. For Polish communities, whose environmental cultures have been distorted by wars, resettlement and communism, vulnerability and resilience perceptions lack representations of the tangible river. It is culturally bounded in the stigmatising image of the Oder as the border of division, revived after 1945 and exposed by the Polish communist party in the so-called ‘Polonisation’ of the ‘Recovered Territories’. Fiction detects the problem of overworking the difficult past in response to the Oder’s hazardous nature. Writers representing an emotional attachment to the river and an aquacritical approach express the need to learn about the river’s lively nature, both in cooperating and sharing space, which is called the environmental adaptation.     

新疆极端降水概率分布特征的时空演变规律

依据新疆地区53个雨量站1957-2009年日降水资料,根据研究需要,定义了8个极端降水指标。运用K-S法确定降水指标最适概率分布函数,确定10年一遇极端降水量值;在此基础上,采用Copula非参数估计方法,通过Akaike information criterion(AIC)法确定两降水指标联合分布函数,系统分析1980年以后极端降水单变量极值及降水极值二维联合概率分布特征变化的时空演变特征,研究结果表明:①新疆有湿润化趋势,北疆湿润化趋势比南疆显著;②从降水天数和极端降水天数角度来看,新疆极端强弱降水同时出现的概率减小,从极端降水雨量和强度来看新疆中部、南疆西部、北疆东部及北部极端强弱降水同时出现的可能性减小,而天山西部与南疆北部的可能性增加;③1980年后新疆地区发生涝的概率增大,发生旱的概率减少。     

水灾害治理对种植业生产的影响

为了应对水灾对我国种植业生产的破坏，国家每年要投入大量资金用于防灾减灾工作，在对1980年以来我国种植业生产、自然灾害和水利建设的统计数据进行描述性分析的基础上，通过建立模型，定量分析了26年来我国救灾工作和各种防灾水利建设对种植业增长所起的作用，为我国进一步制定科学有效的国家防灾减灾政策提供参考。     

Social vulnerability and the natural and built environment: a model of flood casualties in Texas

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury.(2) Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997-2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations.     

Female adolescents and their sexuality: notions of honour, shame, purity and pollution during the floods

This paper explores the experiences of female adolescents during the 1998 floods in Bangladesh, focusing on the implications of socio-cultural norms related to notions of honour, shame, purity and pollution. These cultural notions are reinforced with greater emphasis as girls enter their adolescence, regulating their sexuality and gender relationships. In Bangladeshi society, adolescent girls are expected to maintain their virginity until marriage. Contact is limited to one's family and extended relations. Particularly among poorer families, adolescent girls tend to have limited mobility to safeguard their 'purity'. This is to ensure that the girl's reputation does not suffer, thus making it difficult for the girl to get married. For female adolescents in Bangladesh, a disaster situation is a uniquely vulnerable time. Exposure to the unfamiliar environment of flood shelters and relief camps, and unable to maintain their 'space' and privacy from male strangers, a number of the girls were vulnerable to sexual and mental harassment. With the floods, it became difficult for most of the girls to be appropriately 'secluded'. Many were unable to sleep, bathe or get access to latrines in privacy because so many houses and latrines were under the water. Some of the girls who had begun menstruation were distressed at not being able to keep themselves clean. Strong social taboos associated with menstruation and the dirty water that surrounded them made it difficult for the girls to wash their menstrual cloths or change them frequently enough. Many of them became separated from their social network of relations, which caused them a great deal of anxiety and stress. Their difficulty in trying to follow social norms have had far-reaching implications on their health, identity, family and community relations.     

中国未来极端降水事件的变化——基于气候变化预估结果的分析

利用区域气候模式PRECIS单向嵌套Hadley气候中心海-气耦合模式HadCM3高分辨率的大气部分HadAM3P,分别进行了气候基准时段(1961—1990年)和2080 s时段(2071—2100年)中国区域各30年时间长度的模拟试验,以分析PRECIS对当代中国区域极端降水事件的模拟能力和SRES B2情景下2080s时段相对于气候基准时段中国区域极端降水事件的可能变化趋势。气候基准时段模拟结果与观测值的对比分析表明:PRECIS能够较好地模拟出中国区域年平均极端降水事件的空间分布特征,但模式模拟的大雨事件和湿日数高值区范围较观测值偏大,对华南地区暴雨事件和日最大降水事件的模拟结果较观测值偏低。SRES B2情景下,2080s时段年平均大雨事件除东北和华南地区外,全国均呈增多趋势。暴雨事件在西部地区以减少为主,而东部地区主要呈增加趋势。年平均日最大降水事件的分布型与大雨事件基本一致。湿日数除华北、西北和青藏高原部分地区外均呈减少趋势。未来长江流域洪涝灾害事件发生的频率将可能增大。     

‘Are you prepared?’ Representations and management of floods in Lomanikoro,Rewa (Fiji)

The islands of Fiji, in the Western Pacific, are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards. Tropical storms and associated floods are recurring natural phenomena, but it has been regularly alleged that Fijians lack preparation, over‐rely on state assistance in post‐disaster situations or engage in risky behaviours that aggravate the negative impact of floods. Risk reduction strategies, which are now implemented by government authorities and international organisations, heavily promote the principle of ‘community preparedness’. Both community awareness programmes and capacity‐building programmes are conducted throughout the country in the most vulnerable communities. This paper analyses how the inhabitants of Lomanikoro village, in the low areas of the Rewa Delta, perceive and manage existing flood risks. It examines social and cultural factors that contribute to shape risk response locally—in particular, why villagers may be reluctant to adopt some recommended preparedness measures and resettle in higher, safer zones.     

农牧交错带农业旱灾适应模式与区域可持续发展——以内蒙古兴和县为例

农业旱灾是全球关注的焦点问题之一,同时也是影响我国农业生产最严重的自然灾害之一。中国北方农牧交错带由于处在季风的尾闾区,降水极不稳定,旱灾频繁发生。以内蒙古兴和县为例,在实地考察、统计数据分析和农民访谈等基础上,从调整种植结构、增加非农经营收入、农牧交错的生产方式、生态建设以及设施农业五个方面,对农牧交错带的农业旱灾适应措施进行了深入剖析。研究表明,农牧交错带农业旱灾适应模式包括:"因地制宜"的空间适应模式、"减轻风险"的时间适应模式和"风险共担"的社会适应模式三个方面,研究成果可为区域防范旱灾风险、制定防灾减灾对策、实现区域可持续发展提供借鉴。     

北京地区极端温度事件的变化趋势和年代际演变特征

利用北京地区20个气象观测站1978-2007年逐日平均温度资料,分析了近30年北京地区极端温度事件的变化趋势以及年代际空间演变特征。研究结果显示,北京观象台近30年的两次迁站对研究极端温度事件并无太大影响;近10年夏季显著的热岛效应,是城区极端高温事件发生频次明显高于其他地区的重要原因;尽管北京地区冬季平均温度的空间分布形态变化甚微,并始终存在着明显的热岛效应,但城区极端低温事件的发生频次有可能发生了与热岛效应无关的突变过程。     

江苏省典型年梅雨洪涝灾害对比分析

梅雨期降水形成的洪涝和枯梅年产生的干旱是江苏省主要的气象灾害.为了能客观地划分各年梅雨的旱涝等级,从而为防灾减灾决策提供依据,利用江苏省近50年来的梅雨资料,考虑梅期持时长短、梅期平均日雨量及暴雨日数等3个因子,给出了梅雨强度计算模型及梅期旱涝指标,较好地反映了江苏省每年各地的梅期旱涝状况.结合实际灾情,确定了典型梅雨洪涝年的标准.针对1954,1991和2003年3个比较典型的梅雨洪涝年,进行了详细的比较分析,结果表明:(1)长江及淮河流域上游的客水、入梅之前的降水量和梅期降水会直接影响该省梅雨期的洪涝灾情;(2)1991年的洪涝是历年来最为严重的,1954年的洪涝稍重于2003年;(3)3个典型梅雨洪涝年中全省最涝的地区都位于沿淮地区或江淮之间地区的北部,淮北地区这3年中都出现了较重的涝灾,淮北南部的灾情重于北部.     

北京极端天气事件及其与区域气候变化的联系

应用逐日观测资料分析了北京极端天气事件的变化及其与区域气候变暖的可能联系，得到了如下结论：（1）近30多年来高温和闷热事件在增加，低温、大风、雷暴和大雾事件在减少，暴雨和沙尘暴的出现频率无明显的变化。（2）高温、闷热、低温、大风、雷暴和大雾存在着较强的年际变化，但不具有明显的周期性特征，暴雨和沙尘暴事件分别存在10年和8～10年的主周期变化。（3）年平均气温和高温、闷热、低温、大风等极端事件之间存在着较强的相关性，这些极端天气事件的变化与区域气候变暖关系密切。     

基于APSIM模型的春玉米生育期旱灾损失敏感性定量分析

作物不同生育期旱灾损失敏感性研究对于提高农业干旱监测准确率、采取合理的农业抗旱减灾措施等有重要意义.干旱发生时,农业用水被压缩,充分利用当前可用灌溉水量以取得较好的作物产量效益是农业抗旱减灾中的重点.目前已有研究大多从水分胁迫试验出发,分析不同干旱胁迫对作物产量的影响,定性分析作物各生育期旱灾损失敏感性.由于农田试验样...     

上海市居民对城市暴雨内涝的风险感知与适应行为研究

气候变化背景下,适应城市极端天气风险不仅是政府的责任,也越来越需要公众参与。然而,对风险感知、适应感知和适应行为响应的影响因素,以及三者之间的内在联系还缺乏系统认识。通过问卷调研上海市居民发现：(1)风险感知可以促进适应感知,二者均与收入和教育水平等显著正相关。(2)与关注预警信息和使用防水防潮材料等个人适应行为相比,居民对集体行为的响应程度更高,如增加绿地面积和提高监测预警准确性等。(3)适应行为的影响因素可归纳为：信息通达性、社区归属感、适应意愿、适应激励、风险感知和适应感知,其中信息通达性和适应激励是显著提高个人适应行为的关键因素。     

极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响评估

利用北京心肺血管疾病研究所提供的1994-2000年北京城近郊区的七个监测点的以25-74岁人群为监测对象的25余万居民中全死因死亡事件监测数据、同期北京观象台的逐日气温观测数据、月平均气候资料，对极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响进行分析，得出对城市人群死亡影响的极端气温阈值及其长序列的时间线形变率，采用最优子集回归方法建立预测评估模型，根据气候模式对未来气候变化的预测结果，对未来北京城市人群死亡的影响进行定量评估。