Avoidance of death and injury through mionitoring of dams and flood evacuation in Essex, Connecticut, June 1982

During a period of heavy ranfall in Essex, Connecticut, on 4th and 5th June 1982, dams in the town along the Fall River were monitored for signs of braks. The observation of water spilling over one of teh dams at 10 p.m. in 5th June ld to the decision to evacuate community rsidents. The notification and avacuation process was conducted by the cvolunteer fire department over a two-hour periopd. At 12.30 a.m 6th June, the upper dam on the Fall River gave way, rsulting in a rapidly moving floodwave which sequentially destroyed four additional dams along the river. Although there was extensive property damage, gthere were no serious injuries and no deaths. The responsible actons of the town officials in monitoring the dams during the period of heavy rainfall permitted the evacuation order to be given in sufficient time to evacuate the residnts. The success of the evacuation was the result of good communication, trust, and co-operation between town officials and the community.     

A mixed method study of hurricane evacuation: demographic predictors for stated compliance to voluntary and mandatory orders

The present paper examines the role of several demographic indicators on stated hurricane evacuation thresholds, or the lowest category storm for which participants indicated they would evacuate, for mandatory and voluntary orders. Quantitative analyses reveal that race was significantly associated with a lower stated evacuation threshold in both the bivariate and multivariate models and that previous refusal to comply with evacuation orders was associated with higher stated evacuation thresholds. Qualitative analyses reveal two key findings: (1) wind is perceived as more dangerous than water (rain and storm surge) associated with hurricanes; (2) traffic concerns were the most frequently cited reason listed for possible refusal to comply with evacuation orders. Implications of the findings include the value of future evaluations of race and trust, storm characteristics and threat perception, and other practical considerations for improving evacuation compliance such as the amelioration of traffic concerns. Findings also lead to the discussion of the social complexities of race and hurricane vulnerability as a key finding.     

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Abstract

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.     

荆江分洪区1998年洪水转移调查分析

对荆江分洪区１９９８年洪水期间安全转移的调查表明,叶然有分洪预案,但实际转移时仍出现了相当程度的拥挤与混乱。完善分洪转移的组织与管理,已成为分洪区居民１９９８年转移后关注的焦点,分洪区居民普遍表现出对分洪洪水情不甚了解,通过各种方式开展有关洪水的宣伟,提高区内居民的防洪意识,是荆江分洪区未来防洪减灾的重点工作之一,由于是国家为保护更重要的地区而主动分洪。对分洪区历分洪蒙受的损失给预某种形式的补偿已     

Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.     

Changes in transport accessibility as a result of flooding: a case study of the Mazovia Province (Eastern Poland)

This paper presents the results of research investigating the impact of flooding on the temporal aspect of transport accessibility at national, regional and local levels in the Mazovia Province – an administrative region in Poland. For the purposes of this study the authors measured the theoretical journey times by private transport between settlement units for two variants: journeys made under normal circumstances, that is, without a flood; and journeys made during a flood event, which would necessitate diversions to avoid flooded road sections. This allowed the theoretical journey time differences to be calculated. It was assumed that vehicles move at the highest permissible speed along routes allowing the shortest travel times. The methods of accessibility assessment employed in this paper are based on distance measurements and use isochrones and a cumulative approach. Analysis carried out by the authors has shown that for interregional, intraregional and local journeys, the flooding of a part of the Mazovia region results in changes in travel times, but their absolute and relative magnitudes vary widely. It was found that in the case of national scale journeys the majority of relative journey time increases were no greater than three times the normal duration, while on a local scale they do not exceed 75%. For areas with a high risk of flooding there should be obligatory analyses of changes in transport accessibility; this would facilitate effective flood risk management. Appropriate traffic management in crisis situations would facilitate emergency and rescue services and help inhabitants and any other persons in flooded areas.     

Urban riverbank residents' evaluation of flood evacuation policies in Winnipeg,Manitoba, Canada

The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation.     

Urban riverbank residents’ evaluation of flood evacuation policies in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2 ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation.     

18世纪中叶以来不同时段的中国水灾格局

以县域为基本统计单元。以年均水灾次为基本指标,以数字地图技术支持下,编制了一套信息来源不同、时段相对连续的中国水灾格局图。分析表明：中国水灾格局以胡焕庸线为界,呈现东西分异;水灾高值区呈现团块分布,与地貌格局关系密切;近百年来全国水灾中心呈现由黄淮海平原向东北、西部和南方转移的趋势;近50年来,华北成为水灾低值区,水灾由东向西形成4个梯度区。这些研究为揭示水灾格局对水灾过程影响机制的研究提供了科学依据。     

基于GIS/AHP集成的洪水灾害综合风险评价——以淮河流域为例

根据影响洪水灾害风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性与承灾体易损性,以淮河流域为示范研究区,以县为行政单元,综合考虑降雨、径流量、河流、地形、人口、经济等指标,基于GIS与AHP集成方法得到了淮河流域洪水灾害危险性评价图和淮河流域洪水灾害脆弱性评价图,并采用"加"模型计算公式得到了洪水灾害综合风险评价图,进行了相应的结果分析。     

洞庭湖区退田还湖的洪水效应模拟

洞庭湖多年平均削减入湖洪峰流量约10000m3/s,这对于保护长江中下游,特别是中游地区的防洪安全十分重要.但由于泥沙的严重淤积,以及湖泊湿地被大规模垦殖,使洞庭湖的调蓄功能下降,江湖洪水威胁加剧.1998年长江流域发生特大洪涝灾害,中央及时提出了"退田还湖、平垸行洪"等长江流域洪水治理的32字指导原则,洞庭湖区是实施该原则的重点地区.应用数值模拟方法,通过建立洞庭湖与长江耦合的水动力学数值模型,针对1998年洪水,模拟研究了洞庭湖区退田还湖的洪水效应,并设计了8种方案分别进行定量评估.结果显示,退田还湖工程的实施,对降低洞庭湖区江湖洪水位,缓解江湖洪水威胁具有重要意义.     

厄尔尼诺事件与黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响及其预报

在研究厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件对黑龙江省低温洪涝灾害的影响中,提出了一种表征厄尔尼诺现象的IEN指数,并根据IEN指数谱分析结果给出了厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）事件的统计预测方法。对1997年强厄尔尼诺和1998年拉尼娜事件的实际预报效果表明,该方法是可行的,在区域和省级短期气候预测中可以发挥重要的作用。     

GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam

Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to mobilise available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a good partnership between local communities and local and national institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.     

Proposal for a quantitative index of flood disasters

Drawing on calculations of wind scale and earthquake magnitude, this paper develops a new quantitative method for measuring flood magnitude and disaster intensity. Flood magnitude is the quantitative index that describes the scale of a flood; the flood's disaster intensity is the quantitative index describing the losses caused. Both indices have numerous theoretical and practical advantages with definable concepts and simple applications, which lend them key practical significance.     

The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness,response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses

Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face‐to‐face interviews among flood‐prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses.     

1998年吉林省西部洪水过程遥感动态监测与灾情评估

用NOAA卫星资料对1998年吉林省西部地区洪涝灾害进行了动态监测。并以农田损失为主对灾害情进行了评估。采用AVHRR通道1与通道2的比值图像突出水体信息,在直方图上人机交互划定水陆边界,用统计数学方法确定了混合像元中水体与非水体的阈值,利用灾区与当年的作物种植数作出农田受灾面积评估,用受灾前后的植被指数图,进行农田受灾程度划分,对象元面积的精确计算可以提高受灾面积的计算精度,区域像元数的统计分析可以减少区域内灾害面积比例分析的误差。     

浙江“99630”特大洪水中水利工程的防洪减灾作用

1999年梅雨期间,浙北的杭嘉湖地区和新安江流域发生了百年未遇的洪灾-“99630”特大洪水。这次洪水的降雨、水位都超过历史记录。在特大灾害面前,各级防汛部门精心调度,正确指挥,各地发扬风格,团结抗洪,各类水利工程充分发挥了防洪减灾作用。     

高层建筑火灾最佳疏散路线的确定

高层建筑发生火灾后，在现场情况比较复杂的情况下，尽快地选择一条既安全、疏散时间又短的疏散路线，是室内人员快速、安全撤离火场的重要保障。在应用高层建筑火灾全风网网络模拟软件HRBFS模拟火灾时建筑物内烟流体积分数的基础上，结合当时人员的分布情况，提出了最佳疏散路线的算法。     

Waiting for the flood: technocratic time and impending disaster in the Himalayas

A landslide occurred in the region of Zanskar in the Indian Himalayas in 2015, damming the Tsarap River, creating a lake that effectively became a ticking time bomb, threatening villagers downstream. During the period between the discovery of the natural dam and the bursting of the lake, the state's approach to disaster management plunged the local population into a situation where ‘technocratic time’ ruled, as government experts handled the impending disaster at a rhythm dictated by the production of studies and reports. Analysis of the temporality of disaster mitigation and preparedness measures during this anticipated flood, as well as of the factors that surrounded the events, reveals how attitudes towards the state shaped people's perceptions of these interventions. In Zanskar, the technocratic pace and the state's lack of transparency were seen as a form of oppression that further marginalised the region, in particular by subjecting its population to the process of waiting.