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On 30 May 2008, the Government of the Netherlands informed the national parliament about the effectiveness of preventive evacuation of coastal and river areas in case of flooding. Analysis of a case study showed that it is impossible to evacuate coastal areas preventively within a 48-hour time span preceding a worst credible scenario flood caused by a storm surge. This fact illustrates the need for alternative evacuation strategies, such as vertical evacuation (evacuating to safe havens, inside the flood zone) or shelter-in-place (hiding), to reduce loss of life and the impact of the evacuation. This paper defines these strategies and demonstrates, by returning to the case study used by the Dutch government, that they require different measures, methods of approach, and crisis management processes. In addition, it addresses the need for flexible and scalable preparation so that after detecting and understanding the threat, authorities and citizens can make decisions about different evacuation strategies. 相似文献
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This paper presents the results of research investigating the impact of flooding on the temporal aspect of transport accessibility at national, regional and local levels in the Mazovia Province – an administrative region in Poland. For the purposes of this study the authors measured the theoretical journey times by private transport between settlement units for two variants: journeys made under normal circumstances, that is, without a flood; and journeys made during a flood event, which would necessitate diversions to avoid flooded road sections. This allowed the theoretical journey time differences to be calculated. It was assumed that vehicles move at the highest permissible speed along routes allowing the shortest travel times. The methods of accessibility assessment employed in this paper are based on distance measurements and use isochrones and a cumulative approach. Analysis carried out by the authors has shown that for interregional, intraregional and local journeys, the flooding of a part of the Mazovia region results in changes in travel times, but their absolute and relative magnitudes vary widely. It was found that in the case of national scale journeys the majority of relative journey time increases were no greater than three times the normal duration, while on a local scale they do not exceed 75%. For areas with a high risk of flooding there should be obligatory analyses of changes in transport accessibility; this would facilitate effective flood risk management. Appropriate traffic management in crisis situations would facilitate emergency and rescue services and help inhabitants and any other persons in flooded areas. 相似文献
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Flood insurance and floodplain management: the US experience 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(3):111-122
Abstract With over six million buildings located within the boundaries of the 100-yr floodplain, flood losses across the United States are widespread (88% of US counties experienced at least one flood disaster during the second half of the twentieth century). To deal with this problem, the federal government provides flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program, which was initiated by Congress in 1968 and amended significantly in 1969, 1973, and 1994. This article describes the US approach to flood insurance and notes a number of problems that have limited its effectiveness. Flood hazard identification is incomplete, and methods used are flawed. Mitigation has failed to contain increasing exposure to property damage in floods and coastal storms, and it has failed to markedly reduce exposure to loss of older buildings located in flood hazard areas. Market penetration of flood insurance is low, in spite of mandatory purchase requirements for new construction and the availability of subsidized insurance rates for older buildings located in flood-hazard areas. These problems, although serious, can be remedied through a variety of actions taken by governments at the federal, state, and local level. 相似文献
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Michael Brennan Finbarr Brereton Ilda Dreoni Harutyun Shahumyan 《Environmental Hazards》2016,15(4):279-310
Environmental perceptions are central to individuals’ behavioural interactions with the environment. Cognitive maps, portraying a spatial representation of an individual’s environmental perception, can be aggregated to gain insight into the collective environmental perception of groups and populations. This paper uses cognitive mapping techniques to examine one aspect of environmental perception, flood risk perception, within a residential population (n?=?305). Flood risk perception was examined for the whole sample and six subgroup pairs. Using subgroups allowed examination of how factors previously shown to influence flood risk perception influence the cognitive map production in this population. We use a novel technique (slope analysis) to examine how the population’s perception of flood risk compares with expert assessments of flood risk, and compare the results of this novel technique with a commonly used cognitive map analysis technique (majority threshold method). Both methods identify areas where there is consensus within the population as to which areas are at risk of flooding. However, slope analysis usefully identifies areas where the population’s perception of flood risk lacks consensus, and is at odds with expert assessments of flood risk, without the loss of information inherent in the majority threshold method. Thus, this technique provides a novel approach to studies of environmental perception that can be widely applied within many fields. 相似文献
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The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2 ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(4):157-168
Abstract In this article two modeling approaches were developed based on the use of US Geological Survey digital elevation model (DEM) data. These models were utilized to delineate the extent of flooding induced by precipitation from Hurricane Floyd in a portion of Pitt County, North Carolina. The patterns of flood extent derived from the two models were compared to the extent of flooding indicated on a digital aerial photograph taken two days after peak flood levels had been reached. In addition, floodplain boundaries based on Federal Emergency Management Agency Q3 maps were compared to the extent of flooding on the aerial photo. Actual emergency response operations undertaken through the Pitt County Emergency Operations Center during the flood event are described, and are used to provide a context for evaluating the potential utility of these models. The flood extents produced by the modeling methods performed well at representing the actual extent of the flooding. 相似文献
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The results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) as a part of a survey among the urban riverbank residents on the Red River in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, indicated that the risk of over-dike flooding, set at 2ft above the 1997 flood water level, was a significant determinant of both voluntary and mandatory evacuation, compared to those set at the 1996 or 1997 levels. Mandatory evacuation was more preferred over voluntary evacuation when the likelihood of flooding was at its most severe, and the opposite relationship was the case when the likelihood was low. The notification time for evacuation, suggested as 1, 2, and 4 days, proved to be an insignificant attribute, whereas the respondents indicated significant preference for full flood compensation over an offer of either 80% or 90% flood relief, irrespective of the alternatives of voluntary or mandatory evacuation. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(4):133-142
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of hurricane evacuation behavior of North Carolina coastal households during Hurricane Bonnie and a future hypothetical hurricane. We use the data from a telephone survey of North Carolina coastal residents. Hypothetical questions are used to assess whether respondents will evacuate and where in the case of a future hurricane with varying intensities. We examine the social, economic, and risk factors that affect the decisions to evacuate and whether to go to a shelter or motel/hotel relative to other destinations. The most important predictor of evacuation is storm intensity. Households are more likely to evacuate when given evacuation orders, when they perceive a flood risk, and when they live in mobile homes. Households who own pets are less likely to evacuate. Non-white households, pet owners and those with more education are less likely to go to either a motel/hotel or shelter, preferring instead to stay with friends or family. 相似文献
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Flynn DT 《Disasters》2007,31(4):508-515
A major flood in 1997 forced the evacuation of Grand Forks, North Dakota and caused damage of USD 1 billion. Despite this recent disaster there is only marginal evidence of an increase in disaster recovery planning by businesses that experienced the flood. This finding is consistent with the results of other business-related disaster research. Statistical tests of survey results from 2003 indicate that there is a significantly higher rate of disaster recovery planning in businesses started since the 1997 flood than in businesses started before the flood and still in business. Such an outcome indicates a need for public policy actions emphasizing the importance of disaster planning. Improved disaster planning is an aid to business recovery and the results demonstrate the need for more widespread efforts to improve disaster recovery planning on the part of smaller businesses, even in areas that have recently experienced disasters. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(5):434-445
ABSTRACTAn analysis of published flood fatalities in Australia occurring between 1960 and 2015 revealed that 49% of 229 flood fatalities were vehicle related. After reviewing previous work on vehicle-related flood fatalities, this study examines attributes of roadways that may have influenced driver decisions to enter floodwaters and the survivability of people in vehicles that did so and concludes by discussing policy implications. Characteristics most frequently present were small upstream catchment length that may influence the rate of rise of floodwaters; the absence of roadside barricades; deep flooding immediately adjacent to the roadway; the absence of lighting; dipping road grades that lead floodwaters to increase once a vehicle enters them; the lack of curb and guttering and the inability of motorists to easily turn around. Each of these factors were observed in at least 50% of the cases studied and provide a risk-based means of assessing other sites vulnerable to flooding but where fatalities have not been observed to date. 相似文献
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Simon McCarthy Sylvia Tunstall Dennis Parker Hazel Faulkner Joe Howe 《Environmental Hazards》2007,7(3):179-192
Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties. 相似文献
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Simon McCarthy Sylvia Tunstall Dennis Parker Hazel Faulkner Joe Howe 《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(3):179-192
Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties. 相似文献
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Qingzhou W 《Disasters》1989,13(3):193-227
Over many centuries, the repeated and serious flooding of many of China's ancient cities has led to the development of various measures to mitigate the impact of floods. These have included structural measures, such as the construction of walls, dams and dykes, with tree planting for soil consolidation; installation of drainage systems and water storage capacity; the raising of settlement levels and the strengthening of building materials. Non-structural measures include warning systems and planning for emergency evacuation. Urban planning and architectural design have evolved to reduce flood damage, and government officials have been appointed with specific responsibilities for managing the flood control systems. In view of the serious consequences of modern neglect of these well-tried methods, this paper examines China's historical experience of flooding and demonstrates its continuing relevance for today. A brief historical survey is followed by a detailed discussion of various flood prevention measures. The paper is illustrated by city plans from ancient local chronicles. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(2):156-186
In this paper, we present a method to assess social vulnerability through the creation of an Open Source Vulnerability Index (OS-VI). The OS-VI provides context to environmental hazards and allows NGOs and local agencies to better tailor services and provide targeted pre-emptive vulnerability reduction and resilience-building programmes. A deductive indicator-based approach is utilised to incorporate a wide range of vulnerability indicators known to influence vulnerability. Unlike many vulnerability indices, the OS-VI incorporates flood risk as well as the loss of capabilities and the importance of key services (health facilities and food stores) through the measurement of accessibility when determining an area's level of social vulnerability. The index was developed using open-source mapping and analysis software and is composed completely of open-source data from national data sets. The OS-VI was designed at the national level, with data for all proxy indicators available across the entirety of England and Wales. For this paper, a case study is presented concerned with one English county, Norfolk.Highlights
We produce an open-source vulnerability index.
Accessibility to health care found to be severely affected by flooding.
High vulnerability areas found to be disproportionately impacted by flooding.
Urban extent of an area found to increase its level of vulnerability.
Flood affected areas more likely to be composed of elderly, sick and poor.
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(3):119-128
Abstract Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk. 相似文献
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《Environmental Hazards》2013,12(2):37-48
Abstract The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak rivers are lifelines for millions of people in South Asia in Nepal, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh. They supply water for food and fibre production and for industrial and domestic purposes. They are also sources of disastrous floods that cause substantial damage to agriculture and infrastructure in these countries. There are claims that flood discharges, areal extent, and damage-costs are getting worse in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak basins. The validity of these claims was examined by applying four different statistical tests to the peak discharge time series and flooded areas. The results indicate that no conclusive changes have occurred over the last few decades. Reports of increased flood damage may be due to a combination of other factors, such as improved damage assessment techniques, and the expansion and intensification of settlement in flood-prone areas, but this was not tested in this paper and should be top priority for future research. 相似文献