At the intersection of disaster risk and religion: interpretations and responses to the threat of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake

Over the last several decades, the scientific community has replaced the ‘acts of god’ explanations for disasters with a view that disasters are actually ‘acts of nature,’ and more recently, ‘acts of human behavior and decision making.’ Despite the secular orientation of contemporary disaster research, religious beliefs still govern people’s interpretations of natural events across many continents and cultures. Using a case study of a rural Sherpa community in Nepal, this paper responds to the challenge of linking religion and disaster risk in the context of a climate change-induced glacial lake outburst flood hazard. Data collection employed ethnographic techniques including participant observation and 53 interviews with community members. Results indicate that the case study community’s religious belief system influences how they interpret and respond to the glacial lake hazard, although their beliefs co-exist with more scientific interpretations of risk. Rather than being immobilised by their belief system, we found that religious aspects like rituals and prayer can enhance social cohesion and contribute to capacities for coping with fear and uncertainty in this community. We assert that religion can yield valuable resources to glacial lake risk reduction strategies, which will benefit from incorporating social-cultural factors more profoundly.     

How communities' perceptions of disasters influence disaster response: managing landslides on Mount Elgon,Uganda

The aim of this paper is to assess the role of people's perception in disaster management. It is based on a study carried out along the slopes of Mount Elgon in Eastern Uganda. People living in the study area have experienced a number of landslides, but the landslide in 2010 had the most far‐reaching effects on community livelihoods and resulted in a major setback to development efforts in the area. Experiences of landslides have enabled the local people to develop a number of interpretations of the causes and effects of the phenomena. The study revealed that community members did not share uniform perceptions. Whereas some members advanced technical or physical explanations for the 2010 disaster, others believed that some form of divine power was behind it. Strengthening social networks and integrating communities' perceptions in intervention mechanisms were identified as possible ways of managing future landslide disasters.     

Tornadoes,television and trust—A closer look at the influence of the local weathercaster during severe weather

Previous research has acknowledged the importance of mass media in shaping risk perception and as the channel through which people get information during and after disasters. There is still much more to know about the role mass media (but especially the television medium) plays in people's precautionary hazard behaviors. Close to 400 people were surveyed in the Memphis, TN television market about their knowledge and perception of the severe weather threat, and their past experiences with tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.The survey results show that respondents do develop a relationship with their local television weathercaster and also trust their weathercaster during severe weather. This relationship and trust can then predict the likelihood of taking shelter during severe weather. Ultimately, the case will be made that the findings may be useful to future hazards research in other locations.     

Compliance with recommended protective actions during an H7N9 emergency: a risk perception perspective

This study investigates the factors determining an individual's response to official recommended protective measures, based on the Health Belief Model and the Protective Action Decision Model, to understand the adoption of protective behaviour during an H7N9 (Avian Influenza A) emergency. A public survey involving 1,375 respondents was conducted in Anhui Province, China, during the 2013 H7N9 outbreak to test the research model and hypotheses. The results indicate that protective, stakeholder, and risk perceptions influence positively an individual's willingness to take recommended actions. Protective and stakeholder perceptions also have a positive bearing on lay people's risk perceptions. A stakeholder perception is a vital determinant of a protective perception. More importantly, the effects of protective and stakeholder perceptions on behavioural responses to recommendations are mediated in part by risk perception. These findings can help public health officials to develop messages to encourage members of the population to protect themselves effectively during an influenza crisis.     

Waiting for the flood: technocratic time and impending disaster in the Himalayas

A landslide occurred in the region of Zanskar in the Indian Himalayas in 2015, damming the Tsarap River, creating a lake that effectively became a ticking time bomb, threatening villagers downstream. During the period between the discovery of the natural dam and the bursting of the lake, the state's approach to disaster management plunged the local population into a situation where ‘technocratic time’ ruled, as government experts handled the impending disaster at a rhythm dictated by the production of studies and reports. Analysis of the temporality of disaster mitigation and preparedness measures during this anticipated flood, as well as of the factors that surrounded the events, reveals how attitudes towards the state shaped people's perceptions of these interventions. In Zanskar, the technocratic pace and the state's lack of transparency were seen as a form of oppression that further marginalised the region, in particular by subjecting its population to the process of waiting.     

The hazards of one's faith: hazard perceptions of South Carolina Christian clergy

Abstract

Hazards take place in multiple contexts, contributing to the decisions we make in the face of a threat. Religious belief is considered an important contextual factor in how people understand and respond to environmental hazards. The objective of this paper is to examine one aspect of religious affiliation, biblical orientation, for its influence on the perception of hazard events. Using a survey of individual Christian clergy in South Carolina, the variation in hazard perception and anticipated mitigation responses among the clergy are explored. Geographic location and past hazard experience were found to be strong indicators of hazard concern, while an adherence to a particular theological doctrine was much less conclusive. The hazard mitigation choices voiced by the clergy were also consistent with little variation across the denominations investigated. While considerable differences were noted between the clergy regarding their view of hazard frequency, hazards and the second coming, and biblical orientation, few connections were established between these variables, hazard perception, and future mitigation behavior. Although past research has established that religious orientation influences one's view of their environment, this study demonstrates that this viewpoint is not necessarily extended to environmental extremes. Future opportunities to investigate the complexity of the religion-hazard nexus, such as whether the same results would have occurred in a different geographic region or if these results of individual clergy perceptions can shed light on larger religious attitudes toward hazards, are also discussed.     

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal,social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.     

Perceptions of risk characteristics of earthquakes compared to other hazards and their impact on risk tolerance

People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis‐à‐vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance.     

Factors affecting the evacuation decisions of coastal households during Cyclone Aila in Bangladesh

Despite sincere efforts by concerned agencies and recent improvements in hazard warnings, thousands of at-risk people did not evacuate during Aila, a category-I tropical cyclone that struck southwestern coastal Bangladesh in 2009. This study investigated the responses of the people affected by Aila to cyclone warnings and associated evacuation orders, and unveiled behavioural aspects that explain why they did or did not comply with the evacuation orders. Utilising the primary data collected from 420 households living in the severely affected coastal sub-district Koyra, located in Khulna District, this study found that although more than 97% of the households had received cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Aila's landfall, only around 26% had evacuated. We also examined this study's empirical findings for factors that had dissuaded people from complying with the evacuation orders. Relevant test statistics along with results from principal component analysis suggested that the significant and systematic absenteeism of households from disaster preparedness training appears to be one of the key determinants that affected their evacuation decisions, along with factors related to warning messages, the attributes of cyclone shelters, risk perception, and socioeconomic aspects. A number of recommendations are also presented in this study for people at risk to improve their evacuation rates in future emergencies, not only to save their own lives but also to save their livestock.     

Immediate behavioural responses to earthquakes in Christchurch,New Zealand,and Hitachi,Japan

This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.     

Risk perception, risk management and vulnerability to landslides in the hill slopes in the city of La Paz, Bolivia. A preliminary statement

The article begins by describing the difficult living conditions of many people in the hill slopes (laderas) of La Paz, Bolivia, demonstrating that they are exposed to a combination of natural and social hazards. ¹ It shows that residents, community leaders and city planners tend to underestimate or deny risk, with important consequences for risk management, such as a failure to raise risk awareness. The article then proposes some hypotheses to explain risk perceptions in La Paz, discarding the usual single-approach interpretations and suggesting instead more nuanced theoretical explanations to account for why people build their homes in such hazardous environments.     

Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh

This paper explores peoples' indigenous survival strategies and assesses variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood‐prone villages in Bangladesh. It reveals that people continuously battle against flood vulnerability in accordance with their level of exposure and abilities, with varied strategies employed at different geophysical locations. The paper reports that people in an area with low flooding and with better socioeconomic circumstances are more likely to cope with impacts compared to people in areas with high and sudden flooding. Similarly, households' ability to cope varies depending on people's socioeconomic conditions, such as education, income and occupation. Although floods in Bangladesh generate socioeconomic misery and cause damage to the environment, health and infrastructure, people's indigenous coping strategies have helped them to reduce significantly their vulnerability. Such flood‐mitigating strategies should be well recognised and emphasised further via proper dissemination of information through an early‐warning system and subsequently external assistance.     

In the aftermath of the Qa'yamat:1 the Kashmir earthquake disaster in northern Pakistan

This article explores the local impact of the catastrophic earthquake in northern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. Drawing on field research, including interviews with 40 earthquake survivors, the post-disaster analysis presented here focuses upon risk awareness and the reactions of respondents to the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that devastated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir State, and North-West Frontier Province. The analysis provides insights into local perceptions of seismic hazard and exposure as well as survivors' priorities with regard to rebuilding and reconstruction. The article suggests that the tragedy of the devastating earthquake is entangled in a deeper knot of causal factors that are social, economic and political in nature. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, changing building styles, environmental degradation and lack of preparedness and mitigation are associated with the circumstances that place the population at risk. Remarks concerning present and future risk reduction efforts are included.     

Attitude before method: disability in vulnerability and capacity assessment

Many agencies working on disaster risk reduction use vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) to identify vulnerable groups, to assess their needs and capacities, and to develop appropriate programmes and policies. In theory, VCA offers a good opportunity to incorporate disabled people's needs and resources in counter‐disaster programming. This paper seeks to establish and explain the extent to which disability is included in VCA in practice. It reviews VCA reports and findings, formal VCA guidance, and other methodological literature. The review indicates that disability is a neglected issue in VCA practice and that manuals and guidelines, while promoting the general ideal of inclusiveness, are insufficiently aware of the challenges to achieving this in practice and do not offer enough guidance on how to reach and include disabled people. Ways of overcoming these problems are suggested. However, the real challenge may be to change core attitudes and perceptions of disability within implementing organisations.     

Then and now: A 30-year journey from the ‘leading edge’

A fledgling disaster management organization in 1984, Jamaica's Office of Disaster Preparedness (ODP) hosted the pioneering international disaster mitigation conference to share information and to contemplate how vulnerability to disasters from natural hazards could be reduced. Over the period 1979–2009, the overall focus of the agency was response, given the plethora of extreme events, and the priority of the Government of Jamaica. The organization was associated with several efforts at disaster mitigation, but the need for building the agency's capacity to lead national efforts to integrate mitigation planning into development did not seem to gain traction among the policy makers. Growing losses since 2004, the evidence of climate change and the need for adaptation, and the regional and international disaster risk management agenda have brought attention to the need for review and development of Jamaica's disaster risk management capacity. This paper examines highlights of the 30-year journey of disaster management in Jamaica, and highlights proposals for strengthening the national framework and the organizational structure of ODPEM.     

A study of farmers' flood perceptions based on the entropy method: an application from Jianghan Plain,China

Using survey data from 280 farmers in Jianghan Plain, China, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for three dimensions of farmers' flood perceptions and then uses the entropy method to estimate their overall flood perception. Farmers' flood perceptions exhibit the following characteristics: (i) their flood‐occurrence, flood‐prevention, and overall flood perceptions gradually increase with age, whereas their flood‐effects perception gradually decreases; (ii) their flood‐occurrence and flood‐effects perceptions gradually increase with a higher level of education, whereas their flood‐prevention perception gradually decreases and their overall flood perception shows nonlinear change; (iii) flood‐occurrence, flood‐effects, and overall flood perceptions are higher among farmers who serve in public offices than among those who do not do so; (iv) the flood‐occurrence, flood‐effects, and overall flood perceptions of farmers who work off‐farm are higher than those of farmers who work solely on‐farm, contrary to the flood‐prevention perception; and (v) the flood‐effects and flood‐prevention perceptions of male farmers are lower than those of female farmers, but the flood‐occurrence and overall flood perceptions of male farmers are higher than those of female farmers.     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

环境风险感知的心理测量范式研究述评

环境风险感知研究是近年来环境风险领域研究的一个新的热点.该领域的研究反映了公众对环境风险及环境风险管理的偏好和价值观.将该方面的研究纳入环境风险管理的决策过程是有效实施环境风险管理的基础.阐述了环境风险感知的内涵,着重阐述了心理测量范式的假设、流程和因子分析描述,总结了该方法在环境风险感知领域的国内外研究状况及其意义和存在的缺陷,并在此基础上对心理测量范式在环境风险感知领域的研究前景进行了展望,提出了需要进一步研究的问题.     

How near is near? The distance perceptions of residents of a nuclear emergency planning zone

This paper reports the results of a study conducted within the emergency planning zone (EPZ) of the Nine Mile Point (NMP) nuclear complex located in Oswego County, New York. An EPZ is the area in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant for which detailed plans are implemented for the management of emergencies and for the communication of the risks of nuclear energy production. EPZs are subdivided into emergency response planning areas (ERPAs) according to distance from the plant. This study aimed at discovering how residents of the NMP EPZ perceived distance to the nuclear plant. Distance was conceptualized in five different and complementary ways: estimated straight line distance, estimated driving distance, actual straight distance, actual driving distance and perceived distance. The results indicate that people living at a very short distance from the nuclear plant perceive and estimate distance differently than people living farther away. These results have policy implications and suggest alternative and potentially more efficient ways to redesign ERPAs. Fundamental geographic variables and concepts such as distance, location, proximity and their associated human perceptions are important human dimensions of risk analysis. These results should be of interest to nuclear emergency planners and are probably applicable to many other hazard planning activities.