Regional governance and hazard information: the role of co-ordinated risk assessment and regional spatial accounting in wildfire hazard mitigation

With the threat of wildfire hanging over many communities in the Western and Southern United States, wildfire mitigation is evolving into a significant public responsibility for rural and urban edge county governments. Regional governance is an important piece of the effort to reduce wildfire risks although still weakly developed as a policy arena. This project explores two dimensions in which planning support systems can support regional governance: assessing patterns of wildfire risk accumulation; and, evaluating land use planning alternatives and their effects on cumulative risk levels. These tools are examined for regional governance using a prototype planning information system, the Alternative Growth Futures (AGF) tool, a scenario-building approach developed at the University of Colorado Denver. The project develops a hybrid urban growth model that integrates logistic regression techniques and methods for simulation of growth alternatives. This model is used to evaluate the attractiveness of undeveloped building sites with respect to natural amenities, distance to primary urban services and site characteristics such as slope. The model and scenario-testing framework are reasonably robust and suggest that regional spatial accounting methods have potential as a framework for inter-governmental and public discussion around wildfire planning.     

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.     

Visions and strategies for growth management: Teller County/Woodland Park example

This article is the third in a series prepared to explain the Teller County growth management planning process. Once it was determined by local decision-makers that Teller County, Colorado, would pursue a policy of directed growth, concepts based on this policy were developed. These concepts presented visions and options for the future. Landscape plans then were developed for Teller County and the City of Woodland Park planning area so that these options could be visualized by local leaders and the public. The landscape plans were used as part of the ongoing citizen involvement process to inform the public about the options for growth management. To provide even more information, detailed designs were developed for specific areas in the county. From the landscape plan, public involvement effort, and detailed designs, specific implementation measures were identified, discussed, and adopted. These measures included guidelines for administration, so that county and city goals could be linked to the actual day-to-day management of development proposals. Paper 3 in a series of 3.     

PLANNITG INDIANA'S WATER INFRASTRUCTURE FROM A COMPETITIVE PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: Indiana has embarked on a program to assess the condition of its infrastructure and to plan for its future. The perspective of this planning differs from the traditional “master plan” approach — instead, the focus is on competitiveness for economic development. The initial work on the water and sewerage competitiveness of the infrastructure includes: (1) a comparative analysis of the water resources and infrastructure of Indiana and its industrial midwestern neighbors; (2) a technology scan to identify possible technological opportunities that may be important for Indiana; and (3) a set of recommendations for future planning. This work is preliminary in nature but should serve as a starting point for continued strategic planning over the next decade for positioning of Indiana's water and sewerage infrastructure as a key element in the economic growth equation.     

Transfer of development rights,growth management,and landscape conservation in Virginia

Urban sprawl in Virginia has led to the loss of wildlife habitat and agricultural land, reduced water quality, and to severe traffic congestion. We conducted a survey to identify the tools being used by the state's localities to manage growth and protect land from development, and the factors that influence interest in particular planning goals and strategies. More specifically, we sought to explore the level of interest in using the transfer of development rights (TDR). Almost every locality in Virginia has stated goals of protecting green space and agricultural land but very few have pursued a TDR programme since it became legal to do so in 2006. However, the main tools being used by planning departments are of limited effectiveness, particularly with regard to ensuring permanent or even long-term land preservation. More broadly, they are reflective of a reactive response to individual development proposals rather than a proactive, comprehensive approach to planning.     

SALINITY ISSUES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREEN RIVER BASIN,WYOMING1

Water development in the Green River Basin of Wyoming is projected to increase salinity downstream in the Green River and Colorado River, and thereby increase salinity costs to users of water from these two rivers. Despite these water quality and economic impacts to downstream water users, Wyoming will probably be able to develop its currently unused but allocated water supplies of the Green River Basin. The Colorado River Compact and Upper Colorado River Basin Compact are binding, and protect Wyoming's share of the Colorado River System waters for future use. The argument that water may be used to greater profit downstream is not sufficient to reduce Wyoming's allocation. In addition, the no-injury rule under the appropriation doctrine of law does not appear to protect prior downstream appropriations from increasing salinity in this case.     

Opportunities and constraints for development and conservation: Teller County/Woodland Park growth management plan

This is the second of three articles prepared to explain the Teller County growth management process. As part of an ongoing growth management process in Teller County, Colorado, opportunities and constraints for development and conservation were identified. The scenic mountain county faces a number of issues because of growth. The recognition of those issues has resulted in the goal to direct future growth to the most appropriate and cost-effective places. To determine those places that are best for new development, thorough ecological inventories were conducted for the entire county as well as for the City of Woodland Park area. From these inventories, environmentally sensitive areas were identified. The environmentally sensitive areas were considered constraints in conducting suitability analyses for a variety of potential land uses. The suitability analyses resulted in the identification of opportunities for future growth in Teller County generally as well as the more specific Woodland Park planning area. This article, like the other two, is part of a reflective analysis by the planners who were involved. Paper 2 in a series 3.     

OPTIMAL WATER USE AND SALINITY CONTROL FOR ENERGY - UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Upper Colorado River Basin contains appreciable amounts of undeveloped fuel resources. Large quantities of oil shale, coal, and uranium have attracted recent economic and commercial interests. Development of these resources and subsequent conversion to alternative energy forms require an adequate supply of water. Water use for large scale energy development will place increasing demands on an already overstressed allocation of Colorado River water. Present water quality is at a concentration where increased salinity will result in economic detriments to holders of downstream water rights. The salt and water exchange in mining, processing, and spent fuel disposal processes has been incorporated as part of a two-level minimum cost linear programming algorithm. Mathematical simulation results provide an optimal use of Upper Colorado River water for levels of energy output such that salinity concentrations are maintained below predetermined levels.     

Landscape planning: A method applied to a growth management example

This article is the first in a series of three. These articles were prepared to document the growth management process undertaken in Teller County, Colorado, USA. In this article, an 11-step method for landscape planning is proposed. In step 1, an issue, or set of related issues, is identified as posing a problem and/or opportunity to people and/or the environment. In step 2, a goal, or several goals, is established to address the problem or opportunity. In steps 3 and 4, inventories and analyses of biophysical and sociocultural processes are conducted, first at the regional level and then at the local level. Step 5 involves detailed studies (such as suitability analyses) that link the inventory and analysis information to the problems or opportunities and goals. Detailed studies link regional and local information to specific sites. Thus, this method involves a regional-local-specific site hierarchy. In step 6, concepts are developed that lead to a landscape plan in step 7. During step 8, the plan is explained through a systematic educational and citizen involvement effort to the affected public. In step 9, detailed designs are developed that again are explained to the specific individuals who will be impacted by the designs. It is in step 10 when the plan and designs are implemented. Step 11 involves the administration of the plan. The method is illustrated through an example of growth management planning for Teller County and the city of Woodland Park, Colorado. Paper 1 in a series of 3.     

Regional planning and sustainability: limits and potentials of South Africa's integrated development plans

This paper considers whether South Africa's Integrated Development Plans provide an adequate framework for achieving sustainable regional development, particularly for peripheral regions of developing countries. It examines the case of Integrated Development Planning in the Ugu District Municipality, which has been acclaimed for its emphasis on incorporating principles of sustainable development into its planning processes. While the emphasis on integration and the multi‐sectoral approach are strengths, greater attention needs to be given to environmental aspects, and the form of planning needs to be adapted to the context, and its social, economic and political dynamics.     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Strategic planning harnessing urban policy mobilities: the gradual development of local sustainability fix

The aim of our article is to follow how global policy models affect local policy making. Each city has unique local challenges in promoting development, e.g. economic growth, but also needs to find a balance between these targets and demands for sustainable city solutions. In our empirical study, we follow how ideas of waterfront development – to attract new inhabitants and promote economic growth – and global demands of carbon control were used interactively in a strategic spatial planning process in the city of Tampere, Finland. During the six-year planning process, these two policy targets became interdependent, created a new policy-making domain, and led to a combinatorial development of sustainability elements arising from this domain. These findings demonstrate the serial use of global policy models in the creation of a local urban ‘sustainability fix’. To conclude, the intertwinement of diverse global policy models in a city planning process creates easily a recursive cycle that redefines urban sustainability within cities and intercity networks. This perspective makes local policy narratives and strategic planning highly important in urban sustainability research as promoting urban sustainability becomes an inherently ambivalent practice.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee     

Striking the Balance Between Environment and Economy in Coastal North Carolina

A fundamental purpose of intergovernmental growth management has been to infuse regional concerns—especially regional environmental and economic development concerns—into local land use planning. This paper presents results from a study of state-mandated local planning in coastal North Carolina during the mid-1990s, addressing in particular local efforts to ‘strike a balance’ between environment and economy as required by the state's planning mandate. While acknowledging the need for coastal resource protection, coastal localities were not striking a balance between environment and economy through their planning efforts beyond stating support for the State's minimum resource protection rules. Within this context, key factors yielding less environmentally focused local planning included both local elected officials' concerns about the need for economic development for jobs and their belief that environmental protection was not a local problem. Factors that tended to shift local planning back toward environmental protection included local officials' perception that the local economy was in good shape and heightened citizen engagement.     

基于RS的成都市城市扩张监测与分析

随着21世纪人口和经济的快速增长,城市扩张速度明显加快,如何快速获取城市的扩张信息并进行分析,对城市的规划和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。采用监督分类方法对3个时相的成都市建成区进行提取,并分析比较。在此基础上,结合相关的统计数据分析,得出成都市城区的扩张与经济发展密切相关,人口增长与基础设施完善也起到了重要的驱动作用。     

河北省农村城镇化对生态环境的影响及对策研究

当前河北省农村城镇化进入了快速发展的时期,由于规划不合理、传统经济增长方式制约、基础设施薄弱等原因,出现了自然资源的浪费和耗竭,以及严重的环境污染问题。因此各级政府须科学合理规划、切实推进农村城镇化,转变农村传统经济增长方式,加大对农村环境基础设施建设的资金投入,同时也要加强对农村居民生态环境保护的教育。     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A NECESSITY IN WATER PLANNING1

ABSTRACT In water planning activities, major emphasis has been placed on the development of procedures for devising “optimum plans.” These plans are defined as those which meet prespecified demands for water at “minimum cost.” However, all plans are developed subject to postulated conditions regarding the state of the physical system and of nature. Because planning takes place in a dynamic and uncertain environment in which postulated conditions are known to change, it is imperative that the planner be apprised in the planning phase of the effect of changes which can occur. Using “this information, a planner can temper his judgment with a knowledge of the effect of the uncertainty resulting from changes in the system state variables. This paper presents results of the use of a computer simulation and optimization model to quantify possible variations in system response which could occur as a result of uncertainty in the postulated physical and economic conditions under which the proposed water development system was to perform. The possible effects of these variable responses on planning decision-making is discussed.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT: INDIA1

ABSTRACT India's multidimensional water development programs have contributed significantly to the promotion of the country's economic growth. Rapid growth of irrigation has substantially increased agricultural production. Hydro power generation has doubled during the last two decades, and this has accelerated industrialization and extended rural electrification. Minor irrigation has taken on a new importance in the Fourth Five Year Plan, signifying a departure from the earlier Plans. “Green Revolution” owes a large measure of its success to the availability of assured water supplies. Water development projects have also generated tremendous employment opportunities. Despite its pronounced impact on the economy, India's water planning strategy has some glaring weaknesses: the failure to incorporate “indirect benefits” in cost-benefit calculations; the under-utilization of water potential; and, the progressive increase in the cost of irrigating an acre of land. The prevailing institutional structure in India constitutes a major deterrent to the diffusion of the benefits of water development. There are stubborn psychological factors which render the adoption of innovative irrigation practices difficult. There is thus an overwhelming need to revamp India's institutional framework. On balance, however, water development in India has made its impact felt on India's myriads of villages. And from the arid “dust bowls” of India new life has emerged.     

Lessons learned from natural and industrial analogues for storage of carbon dioxide

The deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) at industrial scale implies the development of effective monitoring tools. Noble gases are tracers usually proposed to track CO₂. This methodology, combined with the geochemistry of carbon isotopes, has been tested on available analogues.At first, gases from natural analogues were sampled in the Colorado Plateau and in the French carbogaseous provinces, in both well-confined and leaking-sites. Second, we performed a 2-years tracing experience on an underground natural gas storage, sampling gas each month during injection and withdrawal periods.In natural analogues, the geochemical fingerprints are dependent on the containment criterion and on the geological context, giving tools to detect a leakage of deep-CO₂ toward surface. This study also provides information on the origin of CO₂, as well as residence time of fluids within the crust and clues on the physico-chemical processes occurring during the geological story.The study on the industrial analogue demonstrates the feasibility of using noble gases as tracers of CO₂. Withdrawn gases follow geochemical trends coherent with mixing processes between injected gas end-members. Physico-chemical processes revealed by the tracing occur at transient state.These two complementary studies proved the interest of geochemical monitoring to survey the CO₂ behaviour, and gave information on its use.     

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT CASE STUDIES IN CALIFORNIA AND COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Survey data collected in the San Joaquin Valley of southern California and the Grand Valley of western Colorado reveal that residents of both areas believe that a severe sustained drought is likely to occur within the next 20–25 years and that their communities would be seriously impacted by such an event. Although a severe sustained drought affecting the Colorado River Basin would cause major economic and social disruptions in these and other communities, residents express little support for water management alternatives that would require significant shifts in economic development activities or in water use and allocation patterns. In particular, residents of these areas express little support for strategies such as construction and growth moratoriums, mandatory water conservation programs, water transfers from low-to high-population areas, water marketing, or reallocations of water from agricultural to municipal/industrial uses. This rejection of water management strategies that would require a departure from “business as usual” with respect to water use and allocations severely restricts the capacity of these and similar communities to respond effectively should a severe sustained drought occur.