Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S.1

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447‐463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00540.x Abstract: Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) “mixtures” of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change‐points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.     

Physically Based,Hydrologic Model Results Based on Three Precipitation Products1

Abstract: The main objective of the study is to examine the accuracy of and differences among simulated streamflows driven by rainfall estimates from a network of 22 rain gauges spread over a 2,170 km² watershed, NEXRAD Stage III radar data, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 satellite data. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), a physically based, distributed parameter, grid‐structured, hydrologic model, was used to simulate the June‐2002 flooding event in the Upper Guadalupe River watershed in south central Texas. There were significant differences between the rainfall fields estimated by the three types of measurement technologies. These differences resulted in even larger differences in the simulated hydrologic response of the watershed. In general, simulations driven by radar rainfall yielded better results than those driven by satellite or rain‐gauge estimates. This study also presents an overview of effects of land cover changes on runoff and stream discharge. The results demonstrate that, for major rainfall events similar to the 2002 event, the effect of urbanization on the watershed in the past two decades would not have made any significant effect on the hydrologic response. The effect of urbanization on the hydrologic response increases as the size of the rainfall event decreases.     

Effects of Riparian Vegetation and Watershed Urbanization on Fishes in Streams of the Mid‐Atlantic Piedmont (USA)1

Abstract: The joint influences of riparian vegetation and urbanization on fish assemblages were analyzed by depletion sampling in paired forested and nonforested reaches of 25 small streams along an urbanization gradient. Nonforested reaches were narrower than their forested counterparts, so densities based on surface area differ from linear densities (based on reach length). Linear densities (based on number or biomass of fish) of American eel, white sucker and tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of benthic invertivores were significantly higher in nonforested reaches, while linear densities of margined madtom and the number of pool species were significantly higher in forested reaches. Observed riparian effects may reflect differences in habitat and algal productivity between forested and nonforested reaches. These results suggest that relatively small‐scale riparian restoration projects can affect local geomorphology and the abundance of fish. Dense vegetative cover in riparian zones and similar or analogous habitats in both forested and nonforested reaches, the relatively small scale of the nonforested reaches, and the low statistical power to detect differences in abundance of rare species may have limited the observed differences between forested and nonforested reaches. There was a strong urbanization gradient, with reductions of intolerant species and increases of tolerant species and omnivores with increasing urbanization. Interactions between riparian vegetation type and urbanization were found for blacknose dace, creek chub, tesselated darter, and the proportion of biomass of lithophilic spawners. The study did not provide consistent support for the hypotheses that responses of fish to riparian vegetation would be overwhelmed by urban degradation or insignificant at low urbanization.     

Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States1

Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.     

Changes in Shallow Groundwater Quality Beneath Recently Urbanized Areas in the Memphis,Tennessee Area1

Barlow, Jeannie R.B., James A. Kingsbury, and Richard H. Coupe, 2012. Changes in Shallow Groundwater Quality Beneath Recently Urbanized Areas in the Memphis, Tennessee Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 336‐354. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00616.x Abstract: Memphis, the largest city in the state of Tennessee, and its surrounding suburbs depend on a confined aquifer, the Memphis aquifer, for drinking water. Concern over the potential for downward movement of water from an overlying shallow aquifer to the underlying Memphis aquifer provided impetus for monitoring groundwater quality within the shallow aquifer. The occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrate, and pesticides in samples from the shallow well network indicate a widespread affect on water quality from the overlying urban land use. Total pesticide concentration was generally higher in more recently recharged groundwater indicating that as the proportion of recent water increases, the occurrence of pesticides related to the current urban land use also increases. Groundwater samples with nitrate concentrations greater than 1.5 mg/l and detectable concentrations of the pesticides atrazine and simazine also had higher concentrations of chloroform, a VOC primarily associated with urban land use, than in other samples. The age of the water from these wells indicates that these concentrations are most likely not representative of past agricultural use, but of more recent urban use of these chemicals. Given that the median age of water represented by the shallow well network was 21 years, a lag time likely exists between changes in land use and the occurrence of constituents related to urbanization in shallow groundwater.     

Water‐Yield Reduction After Afforestation and Related Processes in the Semiarid Liupan Mountains,Northwest China1

Abstract: The increase of coverage of forest/vegetation is imperative to improve the environment in dry‐land areas of China, especially for protecting soil against serious erosion and sandstorms. However, inherent severe water shortages, drought stresses, and increasing water use competition greatly restrict the reforestation. Notably, the water‐yield reduction after afforestation generates intense debate about the correct approach to afforestation and forest management in dry‐land areas. However, most studies on water‐yield reduction of forests have been at catchment scales, and there are few studies of the response of total evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning to vegetation structure change. This motivates us to learn the linkage between hydrological processes and vegetation structure in slope ecosystems. Therefore, an ecohydrological study was carried out by measuring the individual items of water balance on sloping plots covered by different vegetation types in the semiarid Liupan Mountains of northwest China. The ratio of precipitation consumed as ET was about 60% for grassland, 93% for shrubs, and >95% for forestland. Thus, the water yield was very low, site‐specific, and sensitive to vegetation change. Conversion of grassland to forest decreased the annual water yield from slope by 50‐100 mm. In certain periods, the plantations at lower slopes even consumed the runon from upper slopes. Reducing the density of forests and shrubs by thinning was not an efficient approach to minimize water use. Leaf area index was a better indicator than plant density to relate ET to vegetation structure and to evaluate the soil water carrying capacity for vegetation (i.e., the maximum amount of vegetation that can be supported by the available soil water for an extended time). Selecting proper vegetation types and plant species, based on site soil water condition, may be more effective than the forest density regulation to minimize water‐yield reduction by vegetation coverage increase and notably by reforestation. Finally, the focuses in future research to improve the forest‐water relations in dry‐land areas are recommended as follows: vegetation growth dynamics driven by environment especially water conditions, coupling of ecological and hydrological processes, further development of distributed ecohydrological models, quantitative relation of eco‐water quota of ecosystems with vegetation structures, multi‐scaled evaluation of soil water carrying capacity for vegetation, and the development of widely applicable decision support tools.     

Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland,Washington, USA1

Abstract: We used a retrospective approach to identify hydrologic metrics with the greatest potential for ecological relevance for use as resource management tools (i.e., hydrologic indicators) in rapidly urbanizing basins of the Puget Lowland. We proposed four criteria for identifying useful hydrologic indicators: (1) sensitive to urbanization consistent with expected hydrologic response, (2) demonstrate statistically significant trends in urbanizing basins (and not in undeveloped basins), (3) be correlated with measures of biological response to urbanization, and (4) be relatively insensitive to potentially confounding variables like basin area. Data utilized in the analysis included gauged flow and benthic macroinvertebrate data collected at 16 locations in 11 King County stream basins. Fifteen hydrologic metrics were calculated from daily average flow data and the Pacific Northwest Benthic Index of Biological Integrity (B‐IBI) was used to represent the gradient of response of stream macroinvertebrates to urbanization. Urbanization was represented by percent Total Impervious Area (%TIA) and percent urban land cover (%Urban). We found eight hydrologic metrics that were significantly correlated with B‐IBI scores (Low Pulse Count and Duration; High Pulse Count, Duration, and Range; Flow Reversals, T_Qmean, and R‐B Index). Although there appeared to be a great deal of redundancy among these metrics with respect to their response to urbanization, only two of the metrics tested – High Pulse Count and High Pulse Range – best met all four criteria we established for selecting hydrologic indicators. The increase in these high pulse metrics with respect to urbanization is the result of an increase in winter high pulses and the occurrence of high pulse events during summer (increasing the frequency and range of high pulses), when practically none would have occurred prior to development. We performed an initial evaluation of the usefulness of our hydrologic indicators by calculating and comparing hydrologic metrics derived from continuous hydrologic simulations of selected basin management alternatives for Miller Creek, one of the most highly urbanized basins used in our study. We found that the preferred basin management alternative appeared to be effective in restoring some flow metrics close to simulated fully forested conditions (e.g., T_Qmean), but less effective in restoring other metrics such as High Pulse Count and Range. If future research continues to support our hypothesis that the flow regime, particularly High Pulse Count and Range, is an important control of biotic integrity in Puget Lowland streams, it would have significant implications for stormwater management.     

Oregon Hydrologic Landscapes: A Classification Framework1

Wigington, Parker J., Jr., Scott G. Leibowitz, Randy L. Comeleo, and Joseph L. Ebersole, 2012. Oregon Hydrologic Landscapes: A Classification Framework. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐20. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12009 Abstract: There is a growing need for hydrologic classification systems that can provide a basis for broad‐scale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors such as climate change. We developed a hydrologic landscape (HL) classification approach that describes factors of climate‐watershed systems that control the hydrologic characteristics of watersheds. Our assessment units are incremental watersheds (i.e., headwater watersheds or areas draining directly into stream reaches). Major components of the classification include indices of annual climate, climate seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability. To evaluate the usefulness of our approach, we identified 30 rivers with long‐term streamflow‐gauging records and without major diversions and impoundments. We used statistical clustering to group the streams based on the shapes of their annual hydrographs. Comparison of the streamflow clusters and HL distributions within river basin clusters shows that the Oregon HL approach has the ability to provide insights about the expected hydrologic behavior of HLs and larger river basins. The Oregon HL approach has potential to be a useful framework for comparing hydrologic attributes of streams and rivers in the Pacific Northwest.     

Sensitivity of Thermal Habitat of a Trout Stream to Potential Climate Change,Wisconsin, United States1

Abstract: Airborne thermal remote sensing from four flights on a single day from a single‐engine airplane was used to collect thermal infrared data of a 10.47‐km reach of the upper East Branch Pecatonica River in southwest Wisconsin. The study uses a one‐dimensional stream temperature model calibrated with the longitudinal profiles of stream temperature created from the four thermal imaging flights and validated with three days of continuous stream temperature data from instream data loggers on the days surrounding the thermal remote‐sensing campaign. Model simulations were used to quantify the sensitivity of stream thermal habitat to increases in air and groundwater temperature and changes in base flow. The simulations indicate that stream temperatures may reach critical maximum thresholds for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) mortality, particularly if both air temperature increases and base flow declines. The approach demonstrates that thermal infrared data can greatly assist stream temperature model validation due to its high spatial resolution, and that this spatially continuous stream temperature data can be used to pinpoint spatial heterogeneity in groundwater inflow to streams. With this spatially distributed data on thermal heterogeneity and base‐flow accretion, stream temperature models considering various climate change scenarios are able to identify thermal refugia that will be critical for fisheries management under a changing climate.     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

Summer Temperature Patterns in Headwater Streams of the Oregon Coast Range1

Abstract: Cool summertime stream temperature is an important component of high quality aquatic habitat in Oregon coastal streams. Within the Oregon Coast Range, small headwater streams make up a majority of the stream network; yet, little information is available on temperature patterns and the longitudinal variability for these streams. In this paper we describe preharvest spatial and temporal patterns in summer stream temperature for small streams of the Oregon Coast Range in forests managed for timber production. We also explore relationships between stream and riparian attributes and observed stream temperature conditions and patterns. Summer stream temperature, channel, and riparian data were collected on 36 headwater streams in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Mean stream temperatures were consistent among summers and generally warmed in a downstream direction. However, longitudinal trends in maximum temperatures were more variable. At the reach scale of 0.5‐1.7 km, maximum temperatures increased in 17 streams, decreased in seven streams and did not change in three reaches. At the subreach scale (0.1‐1.5 km), maximum temperatures increased in 28 subreaches, decreased in 14, and did not change in 12 subreaches. Models of increasing temperature in a downstream direction may oversimplify fine‐scale patterns in small streams. Stream and riparian attributes that correlated with observed temperature patterns included cover, channel substrate, channel gradient, instream wood jam volume, riparian stand density, and geology type. Longitudinal patterns of stream temperature are an important consideration for background characterization of water quality. Studies attempting to evaluate stream temperature response to timber harvest or other modifications should quantify variability in longitudinal patterns of stream temperature prior to logging.     

Alluvial Sedimentation and Erosion in an Urbanizing Watershed,Gwynns Falls,Maryland1

Abstract: Earlier measurements of stream channel geometry on 19 reaches were repeated to provide a longitudinal study of stream channel adjustment over 13 years (1987‐2000) in the urbanizing Gwynns Falls, Maryland watershed. We observed both enlargement and reduction in channel size, depending on the extent of upstream development, the timing and location of urbanization and upstream channel adjustment, and the presence of hydrologic constrictions and grade controls. Based on a relatively simple visual assessment of the composition, size, and extent of instream sediment storage, we categorized stream reaches into three phases: aggraded (7 sites), early erosion (7 sites), and late erosion (5 sites). Aggraded sites had point and lateral bars mantled with fine‐grained sediment and experienced some reduction in cross‐sectional area, primarily through the deposition of fine‐grained material on bars in the channel margins. Early erosion sites had smaller bars and increases in channel cross‐sectional area as a consequence of the evacuation of in‐channel fine‐grained sediment. Fine‐grained sediments were either entirely absent or found only at a few high bar elevations at late erosion sites. Sediment evacuation from late erosion sites has both enlarged and simplified channels, as demonstrated by an increase in cross‐sectional area and a strong decrease in channel width variation. Channel cross‐sectional area enlargement, reduced channel width variation, and channel incision were ubiquitous at erosion sites. As a result, overbank flows were less common in the erosion sites as determined by high water marks left by a 2‐year flood that occurred during the study period. Principal causes for channel changes appear to be increased high flow durations and reduced sediment supply. Spatial variation in channel conditions could not be tied simply to sub‐basin impervious cover or watershed area. In‐channel sediment storage is a useful indicator of channel form and adjustment. When combined with information on development and sedimentation conditions in the contributing drainage, instream sediment storage can be used to effectively assess future channel adjustments.     

Climate Change,Atmospheric Rivers,and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes1

Dettinger, Michael, 2011. Climate Change, Atmospheric Rivers, and Floods in California – A Multimodel Analysis of Storm Frequency and Magnitude Changes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):514‐523. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00546.x Abstract: Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.