Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Effects of Rainfall and Ground‐Water Pumping on Streamflow in Mākaha,O’ahu,Hawai’i1

Abstract: Land‐use/land‐cover changes in Mākaha valley have included the development of agriculture, residential dwellings, golf courses, potable water supply facilities, and the introduction of alien species. The impact of these changes on surface water and ground water resources in the valley is of concern. In this study, streamflow, rainfall, and ground‐water pumping data for the upper part of the Mākaha valley watershed were evaluated to identify corresponding trends and relationships. The results of this study indicate that streamflow declined during the ground‐water pumping period. Mean and median annual streamflow have declined by 42% (135 mm) and 56% (175 mm), respectively, and the mean number of dry stream days per year has increased from 8 to 125. Rainfall across the study area appears to have also declined though it is not clear whether the reduction in rainfall is responsible for all or part of the observed streamflow decline. Mean annual rainfall at one location in the study area declined by 14% (179 mm) and increased by 2% (48 mm) at a second location. Further study is needed to assess the effect of ground‐water pumping and to characterize the hydrologic cycle with respect to rainfall, infiltration, ground‐water recharge and flow in the study area, and stream base flow and storm flow.     

Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model1

Masih Ilyas, Shreedhar Maskey, Stefan Uhlenbrook, and Vladimir Smakhtin, 2011. Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):179‐195. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00502.x Abstract: Reduction of input uncertainty is a challenge in hydrological modeling. The widely used model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) uses the data of a precipitation gauge nearest to the centroid of each subcatchment as an input for that subcatchment. This may not represent overall catchment precipitation conditions well. This paper suggests an alternative – using areal precipitation obtained through interpolation. The effectiveness of this alternative is evaluated by comparing its simulations with those based on the standard SWAT precipitation input procedure. The model is applied to mountainous semiarid catchments in the Karkheh River basin, Iran. The model performance is evaluated at daily, monthly, and annual scales by using a number of performance indicators at 15 streamflow gauging stations each draining an area in the range of 590‐42,620 km². The comparison suggests that the use of areal precipitation improves model performance particularly in small subcatchments in the range of 600‐1,600 km². The modified areal precipitation input results in increased reliability of simulated streamflows in the areas of low rain gauge density. Both precipitation input methods result in reasonably good simulations for larger catchments (over 5,000 km²). The use of areal precipitation input improves the accuracy of simulated streamflows with spatial resolution and density of rain gauges having significant impact on results.     

Estimation of Evapotranspiration Across the Conterminous United States Using a Regression With Climate and Land‐Cover Data1

Sanford, Ward E. and David L. Selnick, 2012. Estimation of Evapotranspiration Across the Conterminous United States Using a Regression with Climate and Land‐Cover Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12010 Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important quantity for water resource managers to know because it often represents the largest sink for precipitation (P) arriving at the land surface. In order to estimate actual ET across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in this study, a water‐balance method was combined with a climate and land‐cover regression equation. Precipitation and streamflow records were compiled for 838 watersheds for 1971‐2000 across the U.S. to obtain long‐term estimates of actual ET. A regression equation was developed that related the ratio ET/P to climate and land‐cover variables within those watersheds. Precipitation and temperatures were used from the PRISM climate dataset, and land‐cover data were used from the USGS National Land Cover Dataset. Results indicate that ET can be predicted relatively well at a watershed or county scale with readily available climate variables alone, and that land‐cover data can also improve those predictions. Using the climate and land‐cover data at an 800‐m scale and then averaging to the county scale, maps were produced showing estimates of ET and ET/P for the entire conterminous U.S. Using the regression equation, such maps could also be made for more detailed state coverages, or for other areas of the world where climate and land‐cover data are plentiful.     

Evaluating and Extending CLIGEN Precipitation Generation for the Loess Plateau of China1

Abstract: Climate generator (CLIGEN) is widely used in the United States to generate long‐term climate scenarios for use with agricultural systems models. Its applicability needs to be evaluated for use in a new region or climate. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the reproducibility of the latest version of CLIGEN v5.22564 in generating daily, monthly, and yearly precipitation depths at 12 stations, as well as storm patterns including storm duration (D), relative peak intensity (ip), and peak intensity (rp) at 10 stations dispersed across the Loess Plateau and (2) test whether an exponential distribution for generating D and a distribution‐free approach for inducing desired rank correlation between precipitation depth and D can improve storm pattern generations. Mean absolute relative errors (MAREs) for simulating daily, monthly, annual, and annual maximum daily precipitation depth across all 12 stations were 3.5, 1.7, 1.7, and 5.0% for the mean and 5.0, 4.5, 13.0, and 13.6% for the standard deviations (SD), respectively. The model reproduced the distributions of monthly and annual precipitation depths well (p > 0.3), but the distribution of daily precipitation depth was less well produced. The first‐order, two‐state Markov chain algorithm was adequate for generating precipitation occurrence for the Loess Plateau of China; however, it underpredicted the longest dry periods. The CLIGEN‐generated storm patterns poorly. It underpredicted mean and SD of D for storms ≥10 mm by ?60.4 and ?72.6%, respectively. Compared with D, ip, and rp were slightly better reproduced. The MAREs of mean and SD were 21.0 and 52.1% for ip, and 31.2 and 55.2% for rp, respectively. When an exponential distribution was used to generate D, MAREs were reduced to 2.6% for the mean and 7.8% for the SD. However, ip estimation became much worse with MAREs being 128.9% for the mean and 241.1% for the SD. Overall, storm pattern generation needs improvement. For better storm pattern generation for the region, precipitation depth, D, and rp may be generated correlatively using Copula methods.     

Simulation of Surface Water for Un‐Gauged Areas with Storage‐Attenuation Wetlands1

Abstract: A nontraditional application of the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model to simulate freshwater discharge to upper Charlotte Harbor along Florida’s west coast was performed. This application was different from traditional HSPF applications in three ways. First, the domain of the model was defined based on the hydraulic characteristics of the landforms using small distributed parameter discretization. Second, broad wetland land forms, representing more than 20% of this area, were simulated as reaches with storage‐attenuation characteristics and not as pervious land segments (PERLNDs). Finally, the reach flow‐tables (F‐Tables) were configured in a unique way to be calibrated representing the uncertainty of the storage‐attenuation process. Characterizing wetlands as hydrography elements allows flow from the wetlands to be treated as a stage‐dependent flux. The study was conducted for the un‐gauged portion of the Peace and Myakka rivers in west‐central Florida. Due to low gradient tidal influences, a large portion of the basin is un‐gauged. The objective of this study was to simulate stream flow discharges and to estimate freshwater inflow from these un‐gauged areas to upper Charlotte Harbor. Two local gauging stations were located within the model domain and were used for calibration. Another gauge with a shorter period of record was used for verification. A set of global hydrologic parameters were selected and tested using the parameter optimization software (PEST) during the calibration. Model results were evaluated using PEST and well‐known statistical indices. The correlation coefficients were very high (0.899 and 0.825) for the two calibration stations. Further testing of this approach appears warranted for watersheds with significant wetlands coverage.     

A Comparative Study of Stream‐Gaging Techniques for Low‐Flow Measurements in Two Virginia Tributaries1

Abstract: Nonpoint source pollution (NPS) studies, such as total maximum daily loads development, often require quantification of flow in small first‐order and second‐order streams. Frequently, stream‐gaging techniques are implemented in flows that are below the manufacturer’s recommended minimum velocity. A comparative analysis of the accuracy of current technologies used in NPS pollution stream‐gaging applications and their applicability in low‐flow conditions was conducted. Nine stream‐gaging methods were evaluated for their field and laboratory performance and control structures were used as the statistical control. Analysis of the field investigation data indicated that Marsh McBirney current meter and the One‐orange method were the most accurate in the field while the results of the laboratory experiments found that the Starflow acoustic Doppler and Valeport Braystoke current meter performed best among the 10 methods. Overall, the Marsh McBirney and Valeport Braystoke current meters exhibited the best performance for both field and laboratory situations.     

Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells1

Johnson, R.L., B.R. Clark, M.K. Landon, L.J. Kauffman, and S.M. Eberts, 2011. Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):588‐596. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00526.x Abstract: Wells screened across multiple aquifers can provide pathways for the movement of surprisingly large volumes of groundwater to confined aquifers used for public water supply (PWS). Using a simple numerical model, we examine the impact of several pumping scenarios on leakage from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer and conclude that a single inactive multi‐aquifer well can contribute nearly 10% of total PWS well flow over a wide range of pumping rates. This leakage can occur even when the multi‐aquifer well is more than a kilometer from the PWS well. The contribution from multi‐aquifer wells may be greater under conditions where seasonal pumping (e.g., irrigation) creates large, widespread downward hydraulic gradients between aquifers. Under those conditions, water can continue to leak down a multi‐aquifer well from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer even when those multi‐aquifer wells are actively pumped. An important implication is that, if an unconfined aquifer is contaminated, multi‐aquifer wells can increase the vulnerability of a confined‐aquifer PWS well.     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling1

Lin, Zhulu, 2011. Estimating Water Budgets and Vertical Leakages for Karst Lakes in North‐Central Florida (United States) Via Hydrological Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐16. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00513.x Abstract: Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are closely hydrologically connected karst lakes located in north‐central Florida, United States. The complex karst hydrology in this region poses a great challenge to the hydrological modeling that is essential to the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads for these lakes. We used a Hydrological Simulation Program – Fortran model coupled with the parallel Parameter ESTimation model calibration and uncertainty analysis software to estimate effectively the hydrological interactions between the lakes and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer and the water budgets for these three lakes. The net results of the lake‐groundwater interactions in Newnans and Orange Lakes are that both lakes recharge the underlying upper Floridan aquifer, with the recharge rate of the latter one magnitude greater than that of the former. However, for Lochloosa Lake, the net lake‐groundwater interaction is that the lake gains water from groundwater in a significant amount, approximately 40% of its total terrestrial water input. The annual average vertical leakages estimated for Newnans, Lochloosa, and Orange Lakes are 6.0 × 10⁶, ?8.9 × 10⁶, and 44.4 × 10⁶ m³, respectively. The average vertical hydraulic conductance (K_v/b) of the units between a lake bottom and the underlying upper Floridan aquifer in this region are also estimated to be from 1.26 × 10^?4 to 1.01 × 10^?3 day^?1.     

Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States1

Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.     

Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers1

Jung, Yong and Minha Choi, 2012. Survey‐Based Approach for Hydrological Vulnerability Indicators Due to Climate Change: Case Study of Small‐Scale Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 256‐265. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00608.x Abstract: The vulnerability indicators can be used to develop water resource policy in the context of climate change. The Delphi method, an interactive prediction technique, is an efficient way to apply weighting functionality to vulnerability indicators consisting of three parts: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity on climate change. The Delphi method is an anonymous iterative survey of expert opinion, which is then shared with other participants. A total of three different rounds were carried out. The first round was a problem selection set, and the second and third were the standard Delphi survey. Fifty‐eight experts (66% academic and 34% practitioner) were invited. The rates of reply were 59, 50, and 38% for the first, second, and third Delphi processes, respectively. The degree of consensus of the Delphi survey was validated via variance changes and Kendall’s W test. Exposure and Adaptive Capacity presented increased levels of agreement among respondents in their given priorities. Particularly strong convergence (0.20 to 0.71 in Kendall’s W) of the experts’ opinions for Adaptive Capacity was observed. The results of this study indicate that finalized factors with ultimate weights through the Delphi method can be a strong support for governmental policy making with respect to climate change.     

Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States1

Preston, Stephen D., Richard B. Alexander, Gregory E. Schwarz, and Charles G. Crawford, 2011. Factors Affecting Stream Nutrient Loads: A Synthesis of Regional SPARROW Model Results for the Continental United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):891‐915. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00577.x Abstract: We compared the results of 12 recently calibrated regional SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) models covering most of the continental United States to evaluate the consistency and regional differences in factors affecting stream nutrient loads. The models – 6 for total nitrogen and 6 for total phosphorus – all provide similar levels of prediction accuracy, but those for major river basins in the eastern half of the country were somewhat more accurate. The models simulate long‐term mean annual stream nutrient loads as a function of a wide range of known sources and climatic (precipitation, temperature), landscape (e.g., soils, geology), and aquatic factors affecting nutrient fate and transport. The results confirm the dominant effects of urban and agricultural sources on stream nutrient loads nationally and regionally, but reveal considerable spatial variability in the specific types of sources that control water quality. These include regional differences in the relative importance of different types of urban (municipal and industrial point vs. diffuse urban runoff) and agriculture (crop cultivation vs. animal waste) sources, as well as the effects of atmospheric deposition, mining, and background (e.g., soil phosphorus) sources on stream nutrients. Overall, we found that the SPARROW model results provide a consistent set of information for identifying the major sources and environmental factors affecting nutrient fate and transport in United States watersheds at regional and subregional scales.     

Guidelines for Riparian Vegetative Shade Restoration Based Upon a Theoretical Shaded‐Stream Model1

Abstract: Guidelines for riparian vegetative shade restoration were developed using a theoretical model of total daily radiation received by a shaded stream. The model assumed stream shading by nontransmitting, vertical or overhanging, solid vegetation planes in infinitely long reaches. Radiation components considered in the model were direct beam shortwave on the stream centerline, diffuse atmospheric shortwave, shortwave reflected by vegetation, atmospheric longwave, and longwave emitted by vegetation. Potential or extraterrestrial shortwave irradiation theory was used to compute beam shortwave radiation received at the stream centerline, and view factor theory was used to compute diffuse radiation exchange among stream, vegetation, and atmospheric planes. Model shade effects under clear skies were dominated by reductions in receipt of direct beam shortwave radiation. Model shade effects with cloudy skies were dominated by the “view factor effect” or the decreases in diffuse shortwave and longwave radiation from the atmosphere balanced against increases in longwave radiation from vegetation. Model shade effects on shortwave radiation reflected by vegetation were found to be negligible. The model was used to determine the vegetation height (H) to stream width (W) ratios needed to achieve 50, 75, and 90 % shade restoration for mid‐latitude conditions on clear and cloudy days. Ratios of vegetation height to stream width, for dense nontransmitting vegetation, generally ranged from 1.4 to 2.3 for 75% shade restoration at a mid‐latitude site (40°N). The model was used to show H/W needed for E‐W vs. N‐S stream azimuths, varying stream latitudes between 30° and 50°N, channels with overhanging vegetation, channels undergoing width changes, as well as the limits to shade restoration on very wide channels.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

Longitudinal‐Vertical Hydrodynamic and Turbidity Simulations for Prediction of Dam Reconstruction Effects in Asian Monsoon Area1

Abstract: This research investigates possible impacts of enlarged water body according to dam reconstruction on the hydrodynamics and water quality of the reservoir using a laterally averaged, two‐dimensional hydrodynamic and transport model, CE‐QUAL‐W2. The lake was formed by the artificial dam in 1983 for agricultural water supply and is currently under consideration of reconstruction so as to expand the volume of reservoir for flood control as well as water supply in downstream areas. To calibrate and validate the model, field‐collected data were compared with model predictions for water level fluctuations and water temperature during the years of 2001 (from January to December) and 2003 (from March to November). The model results showed a good agreement with field measurements both in calibration and verification. Utilizing the model, impacts of dam reconstruction on the thermal hydrodynamics and turbid current were predicted. From the model results, dam reconstruction limited the depth of thermal stratification below 10 meter and formed steep temperature gradient between epilimnion and hypolimnion. The restricted thermal stratification persisted up to the end of September. This result indicated that thermal stratification would become stronger during summer and stay longer after dam reconstruction. In addition, the restricted thermal stratification caused vertical circulation of water mixing lower than 10 meter and isolated the upper water layer from the lower water layer which increased the volume of hypolimnetic water with low temperature. The vertical circulation near the surface also mitigated propagation of density plume within the depth of 10 m which would remain the hypolimnetic water clean.