A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts into Existing Water Resource Management Practices1

Gong, Gavin, Lucien Wang, Laura Condon, Alastair Shearman, and Upmanu Lall, 2010. A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts Into Existing Water Resource Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):574-585. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00435.x Abstract: Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.     

Adaptation Bridges and Barriers in Water Planning and Management: Insight from Recent Extreme Droughts in Arizona and Georgia1

Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity.     

Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds1

Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.     

Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective1

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., 2011. Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3): 550‐562. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00549.x Abstract: Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water‐related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land‐use or land‐cover changes, water engineering measures, and in‐catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water‐related variables.     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

If Stationarity is Dead,What Do We Do Now?1

Galloway, Gerald E., 2011. If Stationarity Is Dead, What Do We Do Now? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):563‐570. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00550.x Abstract: In January 2010, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, and scientists met in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the report of the death of hydrologic stationarity and the implications this might have on water resources planning and operations in the United States and abroad. For decades planners have relied on design guidance from the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data Bulletin 17B that was based upon the concept of stationarity. After 2½ days of discussion it became clear that the assembled community had yet to reach an agreement on whether or not to replace the assumption of stationarity with an assumption of nonstationarity or something else. Hydrologists were skeptical that data gathered to this point in the 21st Century point to any significant change in river parameters. Climatologists, on the other hand, point to climate change and the predicted shift away from current conditions to a more turbulent flood and drought filled future. Both groups are challenged to provide immediate guidance to those individuals in and outside the water community who today must commit funds and efforts on projects that will require the best estimates of future conditions. The workshop surfaced many approaches to dealing with these challenges. While there is good reason to support additional study of the death of stationarity, its implications, and new approaches, there is also a great need to provide those in the field the information they require now to plan, design, and operate today’s projects.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

What Influences Innovation Adoption by Water Managers? Climate Information Use in Brazil and the United States1

Abstract: This paper examines the use of climate forecasting in water management in Brazil and the United States (U.S.). Specifically, it seeks to understand how different institutional arrangements shape the willingness and ability of water managers to incorporate technoscience, especially seasonal climate forecasting (SCF), in their decision‐making process. It argues that among the many factors shaping the willingness of water managers to use SCF, institutional design and change is critical to explain different patterns in Brazil and the U.S. Moreover, factors related to individual flexibility, discretion, and accountability also affect the ability of managers to use climate information in water management. This paper finds that while water managers in the U.S operate in a mostly fragmented and risk‐averse system – which constrains the adoption of innovation – decision makers in Brazil can afford more flexibility to introduce new decision tools as a result of widespread water management reforms initiated in the 1990s.     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

Relative Effects of Climate and Water Use on Base‐Flow Trends in the Lower Klamath Basin1

Abstract: Since the 1940s, snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased throughout the Pacific Northwest, while water use has increased. Climate has been proposed as the primary cause of base‐flow decline in the Scott River, an important coho salmon rearing tributary in the Klamath Basin. We took a comparative‐basin approach to estimating the relative contributions of climatic and non‐climatic factors to this decline. We used permutation tests to compare discharge in 5 streams and 16 snow courses between “historic” (1942‐1976) and “modern” (1977‐2005) time periods, defined by cool and warm phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. April 1 SWE decreased significantly at most snow courses lower than 1,800 m in elevation and increased slightly at higher elevations. Correspondingly, base flow decreased significantly in the two streams with the lowest latitude‐adjusted elevation and increased slightly in two higher‐elevation streams. Base‐flow decline in the Scott River, the only study stream heavily utilized for irrigation, was larger than that in all other streams and larger than predicted by elevation. Based on comparison with a neighboring stream draining wilderness, we estimate that 39% of the observed 10 Mm³ decline in July 1‐October 22 discharge in the Scott River is explained by regional‐scale climatic factors. The remainder of the decline is attributable to local factors, which include an increase in irrigation withdrawal from 48 to 103 Mm³/year since the 1950s.     

Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States1

Vogel, Richard M., Chad Yaindl, and Meghan Walter, 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):464‐474. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00541.x Abstract: It may no longer be reasonable to model streamflow as a stationary process, yet nearly all existing water resource planning methods assume that historical streamflows will remain unchanged in the future. In the few instances when trends in extreme events have been considered, most recent work has focused on the influence of climate change, alone. This study takes a different approach by exploring trends in floods in watersheds which are subject to a very broad range of anthropogenic influences, not limited to climate change. A simple statistical model is developed which can both mimic observed flood trends as well as the frequency of floods in a nonstationary world. This model is used to explore a range of flood planning issues in a nonstationary world. A decadal flood magnification factor is defined as the ratio of the T‐year flood in a decade to the T‐year flood today. Using historical flood data across the United States we obtain flood magnification factors in excess of 2‐5 for many regions of the United States, particularly those regions with higher population densities. Similarly, we compute recurrence reduction factors which indicate that what is now considered the 100‐year flood, may become much more common in many watersheds. Nonstationarity in floods can result from a variety of anthropogenic processes including changes in land use, climate, and water use, with likely interactions among those processes making it very difficult to attribute trends to a particular cause.     

VARIATIONS IN NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW: IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Historical records of streamflow for an eastward- and a westward-draining stream in the northern Sierra Nevada have been analyzed for evidence of changes in runoff characteristics and patterns of variability. A trend of increasing and more variable winter streamflow began in the mid-1960s. Mean monthly streaniflow during December through March was substantially greater for water years 1965–1990 compared to water years 1939–1964. Increased winter and early-spring streamflow during the later period is attributed to small increases in temperature, which increase the rain-to-snow ratio at lower altitudes and cause the snowpack to melt earlier in the season at higher altitudes. The timing of snowmelt runoff on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada is more sensitive than it is on the eastern slope to changes in temperature, owing to predominantly lower altitudes on the west side. This difference in sensitivity suggests that basins on the east side of the Sierra Nevada have a more reliable water supply (as snow storage) than western-slope basins during warming trends.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Institutions for Interstate Water Resources Management1

Abstract:  This paper evaluates alternative approaches to management of interstate water resources in the United States (U.S.), including interstate compacts, interstate associations, federal‐state partnerships, and federal‐interstate compacts. These governance structures provide alternatives to traditional federalism or U.S. Supreme Court litigation for addressing problems that transcend political boundaries and functional responsibilities. Interstate compacts can provide a forum for ongoing collaboration and are popular mechanisms for allocating water rights among the states. Federal‐interstate compacts, such as the Delaware River Basin Compact and federal‐state partnerships, such as the National Estuary Program, are also effective and complementary approaches to managing water resources. However, all of these approaches can only make modest improvements in managing water resources given the complicated and fragmented nature of our federalist system of government.     

Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.