The ecological and economic potential of carbon sequestration in forests: examples from South America

Costs of reforestation projects determine their competitiveness with alternative measures to mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We quantify carbon sequestration in above-ground biomass and soils of plantation forests and secondary forests in two countries in South America-Ecuador and Argentina-and calculate costs of temporary carbon sequestration. Costs per temporary certified emission reduction unit vary between 0.1 and 2.7 USD Mg(-1) CO2 and mainly depend on opportunity costs, site suitability, discount rates, and certification costs. In Ecuador, secondary forests are a feasible and cost-efficient alternative, whereas in Argentina reforestation on highly suitable land is relatively cheap. Our results can be used to design cost-effective sink projects and to negotiate fair carbon prices for landowners.     

Gaseous carbon dioxide and methane, as well as dissolved organic carbon losses from a small temperate wetland under a changing climate

Temperate forests can contain large numbers of wetlands located in areas of low relief and poor drainage. These wetlands can make a large contribution to the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) load of streams and rivers draining the forests, as well as the exchange of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. We studied the carbon budget of a small wetland, located in Kejimkujik National Park, Nova Scotia, Canada. The study wetland was the Pine Marten Brook site, a poor fen draining a mixed hardwood-softwood forest. We studied the loss of DOC from the wetland via the outlet stream from 1990 to 1999 and related this to climatic and hydrologic variables. We added the DOC export information to information from a previously published model describing CH4 and CO2 fluxes from the wetland as a function of precipitation and temperature, and generated a new synthesis of the major C losses from the wetland. We show that current annual C losses from this wetland amount to 0.6% of its total C mass. We then predicted that under climate changes caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 expected between 2040 and 2050, total C loss from the wetland will almost double to 1.1% of total biomass. This may convert this wetland from what we assume is currently a passive C storage area to an active source of greenhouse gases.     

Productivity responses of Acer rubrum and Taxodium distichum seedlings to elevated CO2 and flooding

Elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 are expected to increase photosynthetic rates of C3 tree species, but it is uncertain whether this will result in an increase in wetland seedling productivity. Separate short-term experiments (12 and 17 weeks) were performed on two wetland tree species, Taxodium distichum and Acer rubrum, to determine if elevated CO2 would influence the biomass responses of seedlings to flooding. T. distichum were grown in replicate glasshouses (n = 2) at CO2 concentrations of 350 or 700 ppm. and A. rubrum were grown in growth chambers at CO2 concentrations of 422 or 722 ppm. Both species were grown from seed. The elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with two water table treatments, flooded and non-flooded. Elevated CO2 increased leaf-level photosynthesis, whole-plant photosynthesis, and trunk diameter of T. distichum in both flooding treatments, but did not increase biomass of T. distichum or A. rubrum. Flooding severely reduced biomass, height, and leaf area of both T. distichum and A. rubrum. Our results suggest that the absence of a CO2-induced increase in growth may have been due to an O2 limitation on root production even though there was a relatively deep (approximately 10 cm) aerobic soil surface in the non-flooded treatment.     

Plant responses to atmospheric CO2 enrichment with emphasis on roots and the rhizosphere

Empirical records provide incontestable evidence of global changes: foremost among these changes is the rising concentration of CO(2) in the earth's atmosphere. Plant growth is nearly always stimulated by elevation of CO(2). Photosynthesis increases, more plant biomass accumulates per unit of water consumed, and economic yield is enhanced. The profitable use of supplemental CO(2) over years of greenhouse practice points to the value of CO(2) for plant production. Plant responses to CO(2) are known to interact with other environmental factors, e.g. light, temperature, soil water, and humidity. Important stresses including drought, temperature, salinity, and air pollution have been shown to be ameliorated when CO(2) levels are elevated. In the agricultural context, the growing season has been shortened for some crops with the application of more CO(2); less water use has generally, but not always, been observed and is under further study; experimental studies have shown that economic yield for most crops increases by about 33% for a doubling of ambient CO(2) concentration. However, there are some reports of negligible or negative effects. Plant species respond differently to CO(2) enrichment, therefore, clearly competitive shifts within natural communities could occur. Though of less importance in managed agro-ecosystems, competition between crops and weeds could also be altered. Tissue composition can vary as CO(2) increases (e.g. higher C: N ratios) leading to changes in herbivory, but tests of crop products (consumed by man) from elevated CO(2) experiments have generally not revealed significant differences in their quality. However, any CO(2)-induced change in plant chemical or structural make-up could lead to alterations in the plant's interaction with any number of environmental factors-physicochemical or biological. Host-pathogen relationships, defense against physical stressors, and the capacity to overcome resource shortages could be impacted by rises in CO(2). Root biomass is known to increase but, with few exceptions, detailed studies of root growth and function are lacking. Potential enhancement of root growth could translate into greater rhizodeposition, which, in turn, could lead to shifts in the rhizosphere itself. Some of the direct effects of CO(2) on vegetation have been reasonably well-studied, but for others work has been inadequate. Among these neglected areas are plant roots and the rhizosphere. Therefore, experiments on root and rhizosphere response in plants grown in CO(2)-enriched atmospheres will be reviewed and, where possible, collectively integrated. To this will be added data which have recently been collected by us. Having looked at the available data base, we will offer a series of hypotheses which we consider as priority targets for future research.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

Influence of seedling roots, environmental factors and soil characteristics on soil CO2 efflux rates in a 2-year-old loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation in the Virginia Piedmont

To understand the role of managed forests in carbon sequestration an understanding of factors controlling soil CO2 efflux will be necessary. This study examined the influence of seedling roots, environmental factors, nutrient availability, and soil characteristics on soil CO2 efflux patterns in a 2-year-old pine plantation in the Virginia Piedmont. Efflux rates were measured both near the base of seedlings and midway between rows in plots that had received fertilization and mulch treatments in a factorial combination. Soil CO2 efflux rates were consistently higher near the base of seedlings, fertilization increased seedling growth with no significant effect on rates. and mulching increased winter efflux rates. In a regression analysis of seasonal soil CO2 efflux, soil temperature explained 42.2% of the variance followed by the interaction of soil temperature and moisture and of soil temperature and plot position, which together explained an additional 9.8% of the observed variance in seasonal rates. During March 2000 measurements, the spatial pattern of soil CO2 efflux between plots was most influenced by differences in soil nitrogen and pine root biomass. Furthermore, spatial differences observed in mean annual efflux rates were found to be highly influenced by the amount of soil coarse fragments in the upper soil profile.     

Increased leaf area expansion of hybrid poplar in elevated CO2. From controlled environments to open-top chambers and to FACE.

We examined the response of hybrid poplar to elevated CO2 in contrasting growth environments: controlled environment chamber (CE). open-top chamber (OTC) and poplar free air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) in order to compare short versus long-term effects and to determine whether generalisations in response are possible for this fast growing tree. Leaf growth, which for poplar is an important determinant of stemwood productivity was followed in all environments, as were the determinants of leaf growth-cell expansion and cell production. Elevated CO2 (550-700 micromol mol(-1), depending on environment) resulted in an increase in final leaf size for Populus trichocarpa x Populus deltoides (Populus x interamericana) and P. deltoides x Populus nigra (Populus x euramericana), irrespective of whether plants were exposed during a short-term CE glasshouse study (90 days), a long-term OTC experiment (3 years) or during the first year of a POPFACE experiment. An exception was observed in the closed canopy POPFACE experiment, where final leaf size remained unaltered by CO2. Increased leaf extension rate was observed in elevated CO2 in all experiments, at some point during leaf development, as determined by leaf length. Again the exception were the POPFACE experiment, where effects were not statistically significant. Leaf production and specific leaf area (SLA) were increased and decreased, respectively, on five out of six occasions, although both were only statistically significant on two occasions and interestingly for SLA never in the FACE experiment. Although both cell expansion and cell production were sensitive to CO2 concentration, effects appeared highly dependent on growth environment and genotype. However, increased leaf cell expansion in elevated CO2 was often associated with changes in the biophysical properties of the cell wall, usually increased cell wall plasticity. This research has shown that enhanced leaf area development was a consistent response to elevated CO2 but that the magnitude of this response is likely to decline, in long-term exposure to elevated CO2. Effects on SLA and leaf production suggest that CE and OTC experiments may not always provide good predictors of the 'qualitative' effects of elevated CO2 in long-term ecosystem experiments.     

Hurricane impacts on US forest carbon sequestration

Recent focus has been given to US forests as a sink for increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current estimates of US forest carbon sequestration average approximately 20 Tg (i.e. 10(12) g) year. However, predictions of forest carbon sequestration often do not include the influence of hurricanes on forest carbon storage. Intense hurricanes occur two out of three years across the eastern US. A single storm can convert the equivalent of 10% of the total annual carbon sequestrated by US forests into dead and downed biomass. Given that forests require at least 15 years to recover from a severe storm, a large amount of forest carbon is lost either directly (through biomass destruction) or indirectly (through lost carbon sequestration capacity) due to hurricanes. Only 15% of the total carbon in destroyed timber is salvaged following a major hurricane. The remainder of the carbon is left to decompose and eventually return to the atmosphere. Short-term increases in forest productivity due to increased nutrient inputs from detritus are not fully compensated by reduced stem stocking, and the recovery time needed to recover leaf area. Therefore, hurricanes are a significant factor in reducing short-term carbon storage in US forests.     

Active carbon-pools in rhizosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in a Typic Haplustept in sub-tropical India

Study on active and labile carbon-pools can serve as a clue for soil organic carbon dynamics on exposure to elevated level of CO2. Therefore, an experimental study was conducted in a Typic Haplustept in sub-tropical semi-arid India with wheat grown in open top chambers at ambient (370 micromol mol-1) and elevated (600 micromol mol-1) concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Elevated atmospheric CO2 caused increase in yield and carbon uptake by all plant parts, and their preferential partitioning to root. Increases in fresh root weight, volume and length have also been observed. Relative contribution of medium-sized root to total root length increased at the expense of very fine roots at elevated CO2 level. All active carbon-fractions gained due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the order followed their relative labilities. All the C-pools have recorded a significant increase over initial status, and are expected to impart short-to-medium-term effect on soil carbon sequestration.     

Exposure to moderate concentrations of tropospheric ozone impairs tree stomatal response to carbon dioxide

With rising concentrations of both atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and tropospheric ozone (O₃), it is important to better understand the interacting effects of these two trace gases on plant physiology affecting land-atmosphere gas exchange. We investigated the effect of growth under elevated CO₂ and O₃, singly and in combination, on the primary short-term stomatal response to CO₂ concentration in paper birch at the Aspen FACE experiment. Leaves from trees grown in elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ exhibited weaker short-term responses of stomatal conductance to both an increase and a decrease in CO₂ concentration from current ambient level. The impairement of the stomatal CO₂ response by O₃ most likely developed progressively over the growing season as assessed by sap flux measurements. Our results suggest that expectations of plant water-savings and reduced stomatal air pollution uptake under rising atmospheric CO₂ may not hold for northern hardwood forests under concurrently rising tropospheric O₃.     

Effects of enhanced O3 and CO2 enrichment on plant characteristics in wheat and corn

The effects of CO(2) enrichment and O(3) induced stress on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) were studied in field experiments using open-top chambers to simulate the atmospheric concentrations of these two gases that are predicted to occur during the coming century. The experiments were conducted at Beltsville, MD, during 1991 (wheat and corn) and 1992 (wheat). Crops were grown under charcoal filtered (CF) air or ambient air + 40 nl liter(-1) O(3) (7 h per day, 5 days per week) having ambient CO(2) concentration (350 microl liter(-1) CO(2)) or + 150 microl liter(-1) CO(2) (12 h per day.). Averaged over O(3) treatments, the CO(2)-enriched environment had a positive effect on wheat grain yield (26% in 1991 and 15% in 1992) and dry biomass (15% in 1991 and 9% in 1992). Averaged over CO(2) treatments, high O(3) exposure had a negative impact on wheat grain yield (-15% in 1991 and -11% in 1992) and dry biomass (-11% in 1991 and -9% in 1992). Averaged over CO(2) treatments, high O(3) exposure decreased corn grain yield by 9%. No significant interactive effects were observed for either crop. The results indicated that CO(2) enrichment had a beneficial effect in wheat (C(3) crop) but not in corn (C(4) crop). It is likely that the O(3)-induced stress will be diminished under increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations; however, maximal benefits in crop production in wheat in response to CO(2) enrichment will not be materialized under concomitant increases in tropospheric O(3) concentration.     

A Review of the Role of Temperate Forests in the Global CO2 Balance

The role of temperate forests in the global carbon balance is difficult to determine because many uncertainties exist in the data, and many assumptions must be made in these determinations. Still, there is little doubt that increases in atmospheric CO₂ and global warming would have major effects on temperate forest ecosystems. Increases in atmospheric CO₂ may result in increases in photosynthesis, changes in water and nitrogen use efficiency, and changes in carbon allocation. Indirect effects of changes in global carbon balance on regional climate and on microenvironmental conditions, particularly temperature and moisture, may be more important than direct effects of increased CO₂ on vegetation. Increased incidence of forest perturbations might also be expected. The evidence suggests that conditions favorable to forest growth and development may exist in the northern latitudes, while southern latitude forests may undergo drought stress. Current harvest of temperate and world forests contributes substantial amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, possibly as much as 3 gigatons (Gt) per year. Return of this carbon to forest storage may require decades. Forest managers should be aware of the global as well as local impact their management decisions will have on the atmospheric carbon balance of the ecosystems they oversee.     

Impact of elevated CO(2) and nitrogen fertilization on foliar elemental composition in a short rotation poplar plantation

The experiment was carried out on a short rotation coppice culture of poplars (POP-EUROFACE, Central Italy), growing in a free air carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere (FACE). The specific objective of this work was to study whether elevated CO(2) and fertilization (two CO(2) treatments, elevated CO(2) and control, two N fertilization treatments, fertilized and unfertilized), as well as the interaction between treatments caused an unbalanced nutritional status of leaves in three poplar species (P. x euramericana, P. nigra and P. alba). Finally, we discuss the ecological implications of a possible change in foliar nutrients concentration. CO(2) enrichment reduced foliar nitrogen and increased the concentration of magnesium; whereas nitrogen fertilization had opposite effects on leaf nitrogen and magnesium concentrations. Moreover, the interaction between elevated CO(2) and N fertilization amplified some element unbalances such as the K/N-ratio.     

Growth and foliar nitrogen status of four plant species exposed to atmospheric ammonia

A chamber study was conducted to evaluate the growth response and leaf nitrogen (N) status of four plant species exposed to continuous ammonia (NH3) for 12 weeks (wk). This was intended to evaluate appropriate plant species that could be used to trap discharged NH3 from the exhaust fans in poultry feeding operations before moving off-site. Two hundred and forty bare-root plants of four species (Juniperus virginiana (red cedar), Gleditsia triacanthos var. inermis (thornless honey locust), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), and Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass) were transplanted into 4- or 8-L polyethylene pots and grown in four environmentally controlled chambers. Plants placed in two of the four chambers received continuous exposure to anhydrous NH3 at 4 to 5 ppm while plants in another two chambers received no NH3. In each of the four chambers, 2 to 4 plants per species received no fertilizer while the rest of the plants were fertilized with a 100 ppm solution containing 21% N, 7% phosphorus, and 7% potassium. The results showed that honey locust was the fastest-growing species. The superior growth of honey locust among all species was also supported by its total biomass, root, and root dry matter (DM) weights. For all species there was a trend for plants exposed to NH3 to have greater leaf DM than their non-exposed counterparts at 6 (43.0 vs. 30.8%; P = 0.09) and 12 wk (47.9 vs. 36.6%; P = 0.07), and significantly greater (P 相似文献   

Mercury accumulation in grass and forb species as a function of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and mercury exposures in air and soil

The goal of this study was to investigate the potential for atmospheric Hg degrees uptake by grassland species as a function of different air and soil Hg exposures, and to specifically test how increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations may influence foliar Hg concentrations. Four common tallgrass prairie species were germinated and grown for 7 months in environmentally controlled chambers using two different atmospheric elemental mercury (Hg major; 3.7+/-2.0 and 10.2+/-3.5 ng m(-3)), soil Hg (<0.01 and 0.15+/-0.08 micro g g(-1)), and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (390+/-18, 598+/-22 micro mol mol(-1)) exposures. Species used included two C4 grasses and two C3 forbs. Elevated CO(2) concentrations led to lower foliar Hg concentrations in plants exposed to low (i.e., ambient) air Hg degrees concentrations, but no CO(2) effect was apparent at higher air Hg degrees exposure. The observed CO(2) effect suggests that leaf Hg uptake might be controlled by leaf physiological processes such as stomatal conductance which is typically reduced under elevated CO(2). Foliar tissue exposed to elevated air Hg degrees concentrations had higher concentrations than those exposed to low air Hg degrees , but only when also exposed to elevated CO(2). The relationships for foliar Hg concentrations at different atmospheric CO(2) and Hg degrees exposures indicate that these species may have a limited capacity for Hg storage; at ambient CO(2) concentrations all Hg absorption sites in leaves may have been saturated while at elevated CO(2) when stomatal conductance was reduced saturation may have been reached only at higher concentrations of atmospheric Hg degrees . Foliar Hg concentrations were not correlated to soil Hg exposures, except for one of the four species (Rudbeckia hirta). Higher soil Hg concentrations resulted in high root Hg concentrations and considerably increased the percentage of total plant Hg allocated to roots. The large shifts in Hg allocation patterns-notably under soil conditions only slightly above natural background levels-indicate a potentially strong role of plants in belowground Hg transformation and cycling processes.     

Bioenergy to save the world

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Following to the 2006 climate summit, the European Union formally set the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. But even today, climate change is already affecting people and ecosystems. Examples are melting glaciers and polar ice, reports about thawing permafrost areas, dying coral reefs, rising sea levels, changing ecosystems and fatal heat periods. Within the last 150 years, CO2 levels rose from 280 ppm to currently over 400 ppm. If we continue on our present course, CO2 equivalent levels could approach 600 ppm by 2035. However, if CO2 levels are not stabilized at the 450-550 ppm level, the consequences could be quite severe. Hence, if we do not act now, the opportunity to stabilise at even 550 ppm is likely to slip away. Long-term stabilisation will require that CO2 emissions ultimately be reduced to more than 80% below current levels. This will require major changes in how we operate. RESULTS: Reducing greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels seems to be the most promising approach to counterbalance the dramatic climate changes we would face in the near future. It is clear since the Kyoto protocol that the availability of fossil carbon resources will not match our future requirements. Furthermore, the distribution of fossil carbon sources around the globe makes them an even less reliable source in the future. We propose to screen crop and non-crop species for high biomass production and good survival on marginal soils as well as to produce mutants from the same species by chemical mutagenesis or related methods. These plants, when grown in adequate crop rotation, will provide local farming communities with biomass for the fermentation in decentralized biogas reactors, and the resulting nitrogen rich manure can be distributed on the fields to improve the soil. DISCUSSION: Such an approach will open new economic perspectives to small farmers, and provide a clever way to self sufficient and sustainable rural development. Together with the present economic reality, where energy and raw material prices have drastically increased over the last decade, they necessitate the development and the establishment of alternative concepts. CONCLUSIONS: Biotechnology is available to apply fast breeding to promising energy plant species. It is important that our valuable arable land is preserved for agriculture. The opportunity to switch from low-income agriculture to biogas production may convince small farmers to adhere to their business and by that preserve the identity of rural communities. PERSPECTIVES: Overall, biogas is a promising alternative for the future, because its resource base is widely available, and single farms or small local cooperatives might start biogas plant operation.     

Assessment of the impact of rising carbon dioxide and other potential climate changes on vegetation

The projected doubling of current levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO(2)]) during the next century along with increases in other radiatively active gases have led to predictions of increases in global air temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. Additionally, stratospheric ozone depletion may result in increased ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation incident at the Earth's surface in some areas. Since these changes in the Earth's atmosphere may have profound effects on vegetation, the objectives of this paper are to summarize some of the recent research on plant responses to [CO(2)], temperature and UV-B radiation. Elevated [CO(2)] increases photosynthesis and usually results in increased biomass, and seed yield. The magnitude of these increases and the specific photosynthetic response depends on the plant species, and are strongly influenced by other environmental factors including temperature, light level, and the availability of water and nutrients. While elevated [CO(2)] reduces transpiration and increases photosynthetic water-use efficiency, increasing air temperature can result in greater water use, accelerated plant developmental rate, and shortened growth duration. Experiments on UV-B radiation exposure have demonstrated a wide range of photobiological responses among plants with decreases in photosynthesis and plant growth among more sensitive species. Although a few studies have addressed the interactive effects of [CO(2)] and temperature on plants, information on the effects of UV-B radiation at elevated [CO(2)] is scarce. Since [CO(2)], temperature and UV-B radiation may increase concurrently, more research is needed to determine plant responses to the interactive effects of these environmental variables.     

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.     

Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a result of complex interactions between forest biomass, topography, ignitions, and weather. Forest structure and biomass are important aspects in determining current and future fire regimes. Efforts to quantify live and dead forest biomass at the local to regional scale has been hindered by the uncertainty surrounding the measurement and modeling of forest ecosystem processes and fluxes. The interaction of elevated CO2 with climate, soil nutrients, and other forest management factors that affect forest growth and fuel loading will play a major role in determining future forest stand growth and the distribution of species across the southern United States. The use of satellite image analysis has been tested for timely and accurate measurement of spatially explicit land use change and is well suited for use in inventory and monitoring of forest carbon. The incorporation of Landsat Thematic Mapper data coupled with a physiologically based productivity model (PnET), soil water holding capacity, and historic and projected climatic data provides an opportunity to enhance field plot based forest inventory and monitoring methodologies. We use periodic forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project to obtain estimates of forest area and type to generate estimates of carbon storage for evergreen, deciduous, and mixed forest classes for use in an assessment of remotely sensed forest cover at the regional scale for the southern United States. The displays of net primary productivity (NPP) generated from the PnET model show areas of high and low forest carbon storage potential and their spatial relationship to other landscape features for the southern United States. At the regional scale, predicted annual NPP in 1992 ranged from 836 to 2181 g/m2/year for evergreen forests and 769-2634 g/m2/year for deciduous forests with a regional mean for all forest land of 1448 g/m2/year. Prediction of annual NPP in 2050 ranged from 913 to 2076 g/m2/year for evergreen forest types to 1214-2376 g/m2/year for deciduous forest types with a regional mean for all forest land of 1659 g/m2/year. The changes in forest productivity from 1992 to 2050 are shown to display potential areas of increased or decreased forest biomass. This methodology addresses the need for spatially quantifying forest carbon in the terrestrial biosphere to assess forest productivity and wildland fire fuels.     

The global carbon cycle and climate change: responses and feedbacks from below-ground systems

According to most global climate models, a continued build-up of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns over large parts of the Earth. Below-ground processes will strongly influence the response of the biosphere to climate change and are likely to contribute to positive or negative biospheric feedbacks to climate change. Current global carbon budgets suggest that as much as 2000 Pg of carbon exists in soil systems. There is considerable disagreement, however, over pool sizes and flux (e.g. CO2, CH4) for various ecosystems. An equilibrium analysis of changes in global below-ground carbon storage due to a doubled-CO2 climate suggests a range from a possible sink of 41 Pg to a possible source of 101 Pg. Components of the terrestrial biosphere could be managed to sequester or conserve carbon and mitigate accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.