NON-FUEL MINERALS AND THE INTEGRATED PROGRAMME FOR COMMODITIES

The paper reviews progress in the individual commodity negotiations for non-fuel minerals covered by the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC). Given the minimal progress to date, the author reconsiders the objectives of the IPC to gauge the extent to which they meet the needs of countries engaged in mineral production or trade. It is suggested that the major focus of the IPC be towards price stability, with less attention to other aspects of market instability and other market problems. For this reason, the IPC discussions have failed to focus on such major issues of concern in the mineral sector as measures necessary to guarantee adequate supplies of minerals over the long-term, the financing of the required investments, the expansion of production by developing countries and the securing of price levels sufficient to generate appropriate returns on capital employed. Cet article est consacré à l'étude des progrès accomplis en matière de négociations individuelles sur les produits de base concernant les minéraux non-combustibles qui figurent au Programme intégré pour les produits de base. Etant donné les résultats peu concluants qui ont été enregistrés, ‘auteur examine à nouveau les objectifs du programme pour évaluer jusqu’ à quel point ils répondent aux besoins des pays engagés dans la production ou le commerce de minéraux. Selon cet article, ‘accent principal du programme a été mis sur’ instabilité en matière de prix au détriment d'autres aspects de 'instabilité du marché et d'autres problèmes connexes. De telles discussions ont éludé les points d'intérét majeurs du secteur minier, à savoir, les mesures nécessaires à assurer à long terme des approvisionnements suffisants en minéraux, le financement des investissements nécessaires, une participation plus active des pays en développement à 'expansion de la production et le maintien de niveaux de prix susceptibles de créer des profits suffisants sur le capital investi. Este artículo revisa los progresos alcanzados en la negociación individual de minerales no combustibles cubiertos por el programs ‘Integrated Programme for Commodities’ (IPC). Dado el progreso mínimo presente, el autor reconsidera los objectivos de la IPC para apreciar el grado en que estos objectivos se ajustan a las necesidades de los países dedicados a la producción y comercio de minerales. Se sugiero que el IPC enfoca su acción a la estabilidad de precios, con menor atención a otros aspectos de inestabilidad y otros problemas de mercado. Por esta razón las discuciones de IPC no han considerado asuntos de tanta importancia en el sector minero tales como las medidas para garantizar suministros adecuados de minerales por largos plazos, el financimiento de las inversiones requeridas, la expansión de la producción por los países en desarollo y la garantía de niveles de precios suficientes para generar retornos adecuados del capital invertido.     

RESPONDING TO DROUGHT: COMMON THREADS FROM THE PAST,VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE1

ABSTRACT: A number of studies conducted since the late 1970s have evaluated state and federal responses to drought in the United States. Each of these studies identified a number of key issues and impediments that needed to be addressed to improve the nation's ability to cope with and prepare for future episodes of drought. A content analysis of these studies was performed to identify common threads in their recommendations. The premise of this analysis was that the series of drought years that occurred between 1986 and 1992 and recurred between 1994 and 1996 increased awareness of our nation's continuing and apparent growing vulnerability to drought. This awareness has led to greater consensus among principal constituents and stakeholders, and also a greater sense of urgency to implement actions now to lessen vulnerability. The results of this analysis revealed that several themes recur: create an integrated national drought policy and plan; develop an integrated national climate monitoring (drought watch) system; incorporate drought in FEMA's National Mitigation Strategy; conduct post-drought audits of response efforts; establish regional drought forums; and encourage development of state drought mitigation plans.     

COMPARISON OF TRACE ELEMENT CONCENTRATIONS IN TISSUE OF COMMON CARP AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MONITORING1

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) collected from four sites in the Red River of the North in 1994 were analyzed for arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), selenium (So), and zinc (Zn). Concentrations differed among liver, muscle, and whole body. Generally, trace element concentrations were the greatest in livers while concentrations in whole bodies were greater than those in muscle for Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, and concentrations in muscle were similar to whole body for As and Se. Concentrations of Cr were lower in liver than either muscle or whole body. Correlations between liver and whole body concentrations were stronger than those between liver and muscle concentrations, but the strongest correlations were between muscle and whole body concentrations. Examination of tissue concentrations by collection sites suggested that, for a general survey, the whole body may be the most effective matrix to analyze.     

JUSTIFICATION FOR A REDUCTION IN THE CREST-STAGE GAGE PROGRAM IN LOUISIANA1

The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.     

THE NEED FOR CONTROLLED INFORMATION PROCESSING IN THE VISUAL ACQUISITION OF ROUTE KNOWLEDGE

The route knowledge of participants who performed a concurrent task during a simulated route-learning exercise was compared to that of participants engaged only in the route-learning exercise by employing tests of scene recognition, distance estimation and map verification. Results indicated performance decrements on the scene recognition and distance estimation tasks on the part of participants in the concurrent task condition, thus supporting the interpretation that these tasks were sensitive to the reduction in available attentional resources. Performance on the map verification task was generally poor, a fact that may have masked the general effect of the concurrent task manipulation. Comparisons involving only those subgroups for which performance was above chance level provided evidence that this task was also sensitive to the availability of resources. In addition, results from the map verification task clearly pointed to map orientation as an important factor influencing the ability to recognize a cartographic representation of a path of movement within a large-scale environment.     

ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR IRRIGATION WATER IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper computes estimates of the demand for surface irrigation water directly from disaggregated profit functions for fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California. It finds that treating delivered surface water and pumped ground water as separate, imperfectly substitutable inputs to production matters a great deal. We find substantial ranges of inelastic demand for delivered water, and thresholds across which demand then becomes highly elastic. The results imply that moves toward freer water markets could lead to large quantities reallocated from agriculture to urban uses in the Western U.S., but would require large price increases and would induce extensive ground water mining and major changes in cropping patterns. While these results are dependent on our particular model and simplifying assumptions, evidence exists that they may be robust.     

THE NEED FOR A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT Environmental resources can be managed properly only by adopting a comprehensive approach. The whole environment must be considered as a single system, and prior to any action, all types of environmental impacts caused by it should be studied in detail. This paper underlines the close relationship between different environmental problems, analyzes existing management patterns, and proposes new alternatives whenever applicable. The different constraints, which have to be considered in the decision-making process while developing a plan, are also discussed. It is concluded that efforts neglecting the interaction among different aspects of the environment do not upgrade the quality of water, air, and land to any appreciable degree.     

ALTERNATIVES FOR SALINITY MANAGEMENT IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT The Colorado River Basin faces the dilemma of an increasing demand for water while presently struggling with salinity concentrations approaching critical levels for some water uses. Based upon projected development salinity concentrations are predicted to exceed 1200 mg/1 at Imperial Dam by the year 2010. Annual losses to the basin economy associated with increased salinity will exceed $50 million by the year 2010. Although methods of controlling salt discharges are relatively unrefined, certain conclusions, based upon Bayesian statistical methods, can be reached. Five basic alternatives for coping with the problem are presented and evaluated in this paper: (1) do nothing; (2) adopt arbitrary salinity standards; (3) limit development; (4) control salt discharges at a cost equal to the cost of doing nothing, or (5) minimize total costs to the basin. Total costs associated with any given alternative, or the given salinity resulting, are the sum of salinity detriments (cost to users for water of increased salinity plus economic multiplier effects) plus the cost of constructing salt discharge control works. These impacts upon basin economy and Colorado River water quality for each alternative are presented and related to questions of equity which will play a role in arriving at any long-term solution to the Basin's problem.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.     

INTEGRATED NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING (INEP) IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Recent increases in energy prices have drawn attention to the importance of developing an integrated approach to energy sector planning, in contrast to the prevailing practice of uncoordinated planning in different energy sub-sectors. Integrated national energy planning (INEP) requires a clear definition of national objectives, in relation to which links between the energy sector, and activities in each individual sub-sector, may be analysed. Policy tools for achieving national goals include physical controls, technical methods, education and propaganda, and pricing. Use of these tools must be coordinated. The INEP procedure, which leads to an energy master plan, consists of several steps: determining the socio-economic background, supply and demand analysis, energy balance, and policy formulation. Initially INEP may be carried out at a relatively simple level, and later as data and analytical capabilities improve more sophisticated computerized modelling techniques could be implemented. The institutional structure should be rationalized by setting up a central energy authority (CEA) or ministry of energy (MOE), with its principal focus on energy planning and policy formulation. Les récentes hausses des prix de l'énergie ont révélé l'importance de l'élaboration d'une approche intégrée de la planification du secteur de l'énergie contrastant avec les pratiques courantes de planification non coordonnée qui existent dans les différents sous-secteurs de l'énergie. La planification nationale intégrée de l'énergie (PNIE) requiert une définition précise des objectifs nationaux à la lumière desquels on pourra analyser les liens existant entre le secteur de l'énergie et les autres secteurs de l'économie, les rapports entre les sous-secteurs à l'intérieur du secteur de l'énergie et les activités de chaque sous-secteur pris individuellement. Les contrôles directs, les méthodes techniques, l'enseignement, la publicité et la fixation des prix sont au nombre des moyens d'action dont dispose une telle politique pour parvenir aux objectifs nationaux. La procedure de la PNIE qui conduit â l'élaboration d'un plan-cadre en matière d'énergie comprend plusieurs étapes: détermination du contexte socio-économique, analyse de l'offre et de la demande, bilan énergétique et formulation politique. Dans une première étape, la PNIE peut être effectuée à un niveau relativement élémentaire et par la suite, au fur et à mesure que les donnés et les méthodes d'analyse s'améliorent, des techniques informatiques plus avancées en matiére d'établissement de modèlas pourraient étre utilisées. Le cadre institutionnel devrait être rationalise par la creation d'une autorité centrale de l'énergie ou d'un ministêre de l'énergie ayant pour tâche principale la planification de l'énergie et la formulation de politiques. Los recientes aumentos de los precios de energía resaltan la importancia de un enfoque integral en la planificación del sector de energía, en contraste a la practice generalizada de la planificación por subsectores de energía. La Planificación Energética Nacional Integrada (PENI) requiere una clara definición de objetivos nacionales en relación a los cuales pueden analizarse las relaciones entre el sector de energía y el resto de la economía, las inter-acciones entre los subsectores de energía y las actividades dentro de cada subsector. Las herramientas de política para alcanzar objetivos nacionales incluyen controles físicos, métodos técnicos, educación y propaganda, y precios. El procesco de PENI, que da como resultado un Plan Maestro de Energia, comprende varias etapas: determinación de las condiciones socioeconómicas, análisis de la demanda y la oferta, balance energético, y formulación de políticas. Al comienzo la PENI puede llevarse a cabo a un nivel relativamente simple; luego, cuando la información y la capacidad analítica mejoran se pueden implementar técnícas de modelización a base de computadoras. El marco institucional debe racionalizarse mediante la creación de una autoridad energética central o ministro de energía, encargado en particular de la formulación de políticas y la planificación energéticas.     

DEVELOPING COMPETITION FOR WATER IN THE URBANIZING AREAS OF COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: Rapid population growth in the metropolitan area of Denver, Colorado, is causing conflicts over water use. Two cities, Thomton and Westminster, have begun condemnation proceedings against three irrigation companies to secure agricultural water rights for municipal use. This is the first condemnation proceeding against irrigation water rights for municipal use. Should the suit succeed, over 30,000 acres of presently irrigated land will lose its water supply. There are about four hundred landowners in the area; two hundred of these are commercial farmers, including truck, dairy and specialty farms. Total agricultural production amounts to about $8 million per year. About 561 jobs related to agriculture will disappear along with about $4 million in not income. Only 6.4 percent of the farmland along the Front Range is irrigated. Continued urban growth will put pressure on the water supply of much of this land. The interested parties of the region should cooperate to lessen the impact of urban growth on agricultural lands and water by forming a metropolitan water district. Such a district could share costs of development of additional municipal water and develop systems where municipalities would recycle waste water back to the irrigated lands.     

A STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING THE POLLUTANTS IN A RIVER1

Urban and industrial areas continue to expand and consequently, to create serious water pollution problems to natural streams. The need for the development of accurate, reliable, and sensitive water quality prediction models is most desirable. The first objective of this research is to set guidelines for dividing a natural stream into more or less independent reaches based on some criteria. The second objective is to obtain the predicting equations of the water pollutants in a selected stream. The preliminary phase of this research evaluated water quality data sampled from the Pearl River which flows southwest and then turns south through the states of Mississippi and Louisiana. This evaluation served as guidelines to divide the total river basin into reaches (subsystems) appropriate to the objective of this research. Subsequent to this subsystem assignment, a stepwise multiple regression FORTRAN program was used to regress the pollutants (dependent variables) for both time and space on their water characteristics (independent variables). Based on the results obtained, the proposed statistical approach provides a practical tool for developing regression equations for the purpose of water pollutants' prediction.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF IMPACTS IN SMALL WATERSHEDS FOR FLOOD CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: An analogue method of ex post evaluation is proposed as a method of measuring the effectiveness of small watershed projects in obtaining flood control and economic benefits. Two watersheds were compared on a “with vs. without” project basis by both direct and indirect measurement of economic benefits. Direct measurements indicated that small watershed flood control projects did not generate the expected economic benefits. However, the indirect measurements of the same watersheds using land value enhancement as a surrogate suggested that the expected economic benefits were reflected in differential land values. The economic efficiency of small watershed projects should be measured ex ante and ex post on a “with vs. without” project basis rather than on a “before vs. after” basis whether using direct or surrogate variables.     

PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR THE BIOMASS OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE IN LAKES1

In lakes which experience water quality problems due to the nuisance growth of blue-green algae, summer concentrations of chlorophyll a may not always be a meaningful measure of water quality for making management decisions. Models for the prediction of summer mean blue-green algal biomass were thus developed from data collected from five systems located in North America and Sweden. It is suggested that the model of choice is log BG =?0.142 + 0.596 log TP – 0.963 log Z, where BG is the biomass of blue-green algae (g m^?3), TP is the concentration of total phosphorus (mg m^?3), and Z is the mean depth of the lake (m). When coupled to current loading models, this model can potentially be used to assess the impacts of phosphorus loading reductions on threshold odor in water supplies.     

FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS FOR INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER RESOURCES

One of the subject areas of the Mar del Plata Action Plan adopted by the United Nations Water Conference held in Mar del Plata, Argentina in 1977, was that of financing arrangements for international co-operation in the development of water resources. This problem was the subject of considerable attention at the Conference, and there was a general consensus that lack of adequate financial resources is one of the main constraints on water development in developing countries. However, there was a divergence of opinion as to the need for a special fund for water resources development that had been proposed by the African Regional meeting prior to the Conference. As a compromise the Conference requested the United Nations Secretary-General to prepare a study on “the most effective and flexible mechanisms to increase the flow of financial resources specifically for water development and management.” This paper, prepared in response to the request of the Conference, treats the question by first estimating the financial resources necessary to implement existing water development plans. These sums on the order of $20 billion (thousand million) per year at present will increase to $40 billion per annum by the year 2000. The paper next examines the policy implications of these requirements. This is followed by an examination of the existing system of international assistance for water resources development and its adequacy to implement the required programmes. The report concludes that existing mechanisms are adequate to undertake the required development work, but that substantial growth in funding will be necessary. Un des points du Plan d'action adopté à la Conférence des Nations Unies sur l'eau qui s'est tenue à Mar del Plata en Argentine en 1977 prévoit des arrangements financiers afin de favoriser une coopération internationale dans le domaine de l'aménagement des ressources en eau. Après l'examen attentif de cette question à la Conférence, il a été généralement conclu que le manque de ressources financières adéquates était un des obstacles à la mise en valeur des ressources en eau dans les pays en développement. Pourtant, les opinions ont différé sur la nécessité d‘établir un fonds spécial pour l'aménagement de ces ressources, proposition qui avait été faite à la Réunion régionale africaine avant la tenue de la Conférence. En tant que mesure conciliatoire, le Secrétaire général des Nations Unies fut prié de préparer une étude sur “le mécanisme le plus efficace et le plus souple permettant d'accroître le courant des ressources financières, en particulier pour l'aménagement et la gestion des ressources en eau.” Ce rapport, préparé à la demande de la Conférence, traite la question en faisant d'abord l'estimation des ressources financières nécessaires aux plans d'aménagement des ressources en eau. Ces valeurs, de l'ordre de 20 milliards de dollars des E.U. par an à cette date, atteindront la somme annuelle de 40 milliards d'ici l'an 2000. Ensuite, le rapport considère les incidences politiques de ces dépenses. II se poursuit en examinant les dispositifs en vigueur en matière d'assitance internationale dans le domaine de l'aménagement des ressources en eau et leur efficacité en ce qui concerne l'exécution des programmes prévus. Le rapport conclut que les mécanismes actuels permettent d'entreprendre les travaux d'aménagement nécessaires mais qu'une augmentation financière substantielle s'avère nécessaire. Una de las áreas del Plan de Acción del Mar de la Plata adoptado por la Conferencia del Agua de las Naciones Unidas realizado en el Mar de la Plata, Argentina en 1977, fue la de los arreglos financieros para la cooperación internacional en el desarrollo de recursos de agua. Este problema fué el objeto de considerable atención en la conferencia y hubo un concenso general en que la carencia de recursos financieros adecuados era una de las limitaciones principales en el desarrollo de recursos de agua en los paises en desarrollo. Sin embargo, hubo divergencia de opinion con respecto a la necesidad de un fondo especial para el desarrollo de recursos de agua que había sido propuesto en una reunión Regional Africana previa a la Conferencia. Como solución de compromiso la Conferencia pidió al Secretario General de las Naciones Unidas preparer un estudio sobre “el mecanismo más efectivo y flexible para aumentar el flujo de recursos financieros específicos al desarrollo y administración de recursos de agua.” Este informe, preparado en respuesta al pedido de la Conferencia, enfoca el problema estimando primero los recursos financieros necesarios para implementar los planes existentes de desarrollo de recursos de agua. El monto anual correspondiente alcanza por ahora el orden de los US $20,000 millones y aumentará a US $40,000 millones para al año 2000. El informe examina luego las implicancias políticas de este requerimiento. Sigue luego un examen de los sistemas existentes de asistencia internacional para desarrollo de recursos de agua y de su capacidad para hacer frente a la implementación de los programas requeridos. El informe concluye que los mecanismos existentes son apropiados para atender el desarrollo requerído, pero que es necesario un crecimiento sustancial en la disponibilidad de fondos.     

THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER YIELD AUGMENTATION FROM FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION1

With the exception of the Sierra-Cascade mountain ranges, the Rocky Mountain chain is the only portion of the western United States that consistently yields more than 3 cm of flow annually. Ten to 15 percent of the land mass in the region produces the majority of the total flow. This paper addresses the opportunities for increasing flow through forest manipulation, and summarizes the research base that has yielded the current “state of the art” understanding of how snow pack and vegetation management can influence water yield. The optimal harvest design appears to consist of small openings, irregularly shaped, and about 3 to 8 tree heights in width parallel to the wind.