A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA.     

Does Globalisation Worsen Environmental Quality in Developed Economies?

We examine the causal relationship between globalisation and CO₂ emissions for 25 developed economies in Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania using both time series and panel data techniques, spanning the annual data period of 1970–2014. Because of the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel, we employ Pesaran’s Journal of Applied Econometrics 22, 265–312 (2007) cross-sectional augmented panel unit root (CIPS) test to ascertain unit root properties. The Westerlund Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709–748 (2007) cointegration test is also used to ascertain the presence of a long-run association between globalisation and carbon emissions. The long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated using the Pesaran Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012 (2006) common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator and the Eberhardt and Teal Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production (2010) augmented mean group (AMG) estimator. The causality between the variables is examined by employing the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Economic Modelling, 29, 1450–1460 (2012) and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose Economic Modelling, 28, 870–876 (2011) Granger causality tests. The empirical results reveal that globalisation increases carbon emissions, and thus, the globalisation-driven carbon emission hypothesis is valid. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using ‘globalisation’ as an economic tool for better long-run environmental policy.     

Comparative effect of compost and technosol enhanced with biochar on the fertility of a degraded soil

A large number of studies on the reclamation of mine soils focused on the problem caused by metals and did not explore in depth the issue of nutrients and vegetation after the application of organic materials. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of two treatments made of wastes and vegetated with Brassica juncea L. on the fertility of a settling pond mine soil. The first treatment was compost, biochar, and B. juncea (SCBP) and the second treatment was technosol, biochar, and B. juncea (STBP). This study evaluated the effect of the treatments on the soil nutrient concentrations and fertility conditions in the soil amendment mixtures, after 11 months of greenhouse experiment. Total carbon and nitrogen concentrations were higher in treatment SCBP than in treatment STBP after 7 months but, after 11 months, carbon concentration was higher in STBP. The used technosol could have forms of carbon more stable than compost, which could be released slower than in the compost-amended soils. Both compost and technosol mixed with biochar also increased the concentration of calcium, potassium, magnesium, and sodium in exchangeable form in the mine soil.     

Baseline effects on carbon footprints of biofuels: The case of wood

As biofuel usage has boomed over the past decade, so has research and regulatory interest in its carbon accounting. This paper examines one aspect of that carbon accounting: the baseline, i.e. the reference case against which other conditions or changes can be compared. A literature search and analysis identified four baseline types: no baseline; reference point; marginal fossil fuel; and biomass opportunity cost. The fourth one, biomass opportunity cost, is defined in more detail, because this is not done elsewhere in the literature. The four baselines are then applied to the carbon footprint of a wood-fired power plant.The footprint of the resulting wood-fired electricity varies dramatically, according to the type of baseline. Baseline type is also found to be the footprint's most significant sensitivity. Other significant sensitivities are: efficiency of the power plant; the growth (or re-growth) rate of the forest that supplies the wood; and the residue fraction of the wood. Length of the policy horizon is also an important factor in determining the footprint.The paper concludes that because of their significance and variability, baseline choices should be made very explicit in biofuel carbon footprints.     

Progressive Optimal Technology-based Border Carbon Adjustment (POT BCA) - A New Approach to an Old Carbon Problem

The idea of Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA), which makes it possible to transform the standard tax on carbon emissions from production (origin principle) to a tax system imposed at the point of consumption (destination principle), has received a considerable amount of attention from academia and policymakers. In this paper, we go back to the source of environmental destination-based taxation and generalize the results of Markusen (Journal of International Economics, 5, 15–29, 1975) for optimal tax and tariff by extending domestic environmental policy on both goods featuring positive carbon intensities. Following Jakob et al. (Environmental and Resource Economics, 56(1), 47–72, 2013) we remove the strategic term from the optimal tariff and deal with the so-called optimal carbon tariff, targeting primarily environmental externality. Further, we develop a handy approximation for optimal tax and optimal carbon tariff structure in a multiple good setting. Such trade taxation is, however, likely to face further legal obstacles, which may hinder its implementation. This motivates us to adjust the results accordingly and to include refunds for low-carbon investments in a ‘dirty’ country granted proportionally to the difference in carbon intensities between trade partners. This new scheme, known as Progressive Optimal Technology-based Border Carbon Adjustment (POT BCA), mitigates several legal problems and increases political acceptance compared to the ‘standard’ BCA. It can also be seen as advantageous from the economic point of view: it mimics the performance of the optimal carbon tariff while aiming to decrease foreign carbon intensity over the long term.     

Using Microsimulation to Maximise Scarce Survey Data: Applications for Catchment Scale Modelling and Policy Analysis

Microsimulation can be used to extend the use of scarce survey resources by creating simulated populations whose characteristics are close to those of the real population. The technique involves merging detailed survey observations with variables from more extensive data sets in order to create a simulated population. We illustrate how microsimulated data enable analysis of the economic and environmental impact of different policies on a catchment for which detailed farm level data was unavailable. Use of microsimulation for agri-environmental policy analysis is applicable to diverse problems from simulation of nitrogen trading to modelling of agent response to policy shocks. Scale flexibility is easily implemented since data can be aggregated or disaggregated to the preferred scale. Simulated catchment data allows better understanding of the effects of policies on different types of farm and should be extremely valuable to organisations that want to minimise the economic impact of environmental policies.     

Determining the ‘optimal’ level of pollution (PM2.5) generated by industrial and residential sources

This study provides an optimization model that explicitly determines the ‘optimal’ level of pollution of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) by analyzing various options for reducing emissions from industrial and residential sources in the second largest urban area in Chile. Several conclusions that had not been previously addressed or sufficiently highlighted in the literature were discerned. The most notable conclusions included the importance of regulating all emission sources and not just industrial sources (which are typically fewer in number and easier to monitor), the homogeneity in ‘optimal’ levels of pollution from urban districts when considering the long-term effects on human health (which would support the adoption of uniform regulations), and the asymmetry in confidence intervals associated to the ‘optimal’ level of pollution.     

Mitigation Portfolio and Policy Instruments When Hedging Against Climate Policy and Technology Uncertainty

In this paper, we use a stochastic integrated assessment model to evaluate the effects of uncertainty about future carbon taxes and the costs of low-carbon power technologies. We assess the implications of such ambiguity on the mitigation portfolio under a variety of assumptions and evaluate the role of emission performance standards and renewable portfolios in accompanying a market-based climate policy. Results suggest that climate policy and technology uncertainties are important with varying effects on all abatement options. The effect varies with the technology, the type of uncertainty, and the level of risk. We show that carbon price uncertainty does not substantially change the level of abatement, but it does have an influence on the mitigation portfolio, reducing in particular energy R&D investments in advanced technologies. When investment costs are uncertain, investments are discouraged, especially during the early stages, but the effect is mitigated for the technologies with technological learning prospects. Overall, these insights support some level of regulation to encourage investments in coal equipped with carbon capture and storage and clean energy R&D.     

Social impact assessments: Developing a consolidated conceptual framework

Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) have played an increasingly important role in the conduct of planned interventions, providing proponents the capacity to assess and manage the social consequences of their activities. Whilst the SIA field has experienced significant conceptual and practical development over the last decade, efforts at consolidating this within one framework have been limited. In this paper, we incorporate this new knowledge by redeveloping and thus updating the SIA procedural framework developed by Interorganizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment. In doing so, this updated procedural framework has attempted to incorporate current ‘best practice’ that focuses on participatory approaches to undertaking an SIA. This involved making adaptions to two steps, expansions to five steps, integration of a stronger participatory approach to six steps, and the development of a new step, Management and Evaluation reflecting moves towards ex-post use of SIA processes. It is hoped that this consolidation of the literature of a decade's worth of key findings in SIA research will lead to further efforts towards a meta-evaluation of SIA literature and a platform from which newer developments may be further investigated.     

Evaluating the Efficiency of a Uniform N-Input Tax under Different Policy Scenarios at Different Scales

Nitrate pollution from agriculture is an important environmental externality, caused by the excessive use of fertilizers. The internalization of this problem, via a tax on mineral nitrogen, could lead to a second best solution, reducing nitrate emissions. Several authors suggest that a reduction in agricultural support could produce similar results. In this paper, we examine the effects of different levels of a uniformly implemented nitrogen tax in France under two policy scenarios, corresponding to post Agenda 2000 and 2003 Luxembourg reforms of European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy, in order to reveal the synergies and conflicts between the tax and the policy scenarios in terms of nitrate emissions abatement. The analysis is performed at different geographical scales, from the national to the regional and is based on a bioeconomic approach that involves the coupling of the economic model AROPAj with the crop model STICS. Results show that the efficiency of the N-tax varies according to the geographical scale of the analysis and the type of farming. Furthermore, we prove that a uniform implementation may lead to perverse effects that should always be taken into account when introducing second-best instruments.     

Impact of environmental policy on eco-efficiency in country districts in Poland: How does the decreasing return to scale change perspectives?

In macroeconomic analyses usually a simple proportional trade-off between economic growth and environmental pressure is assumed, i.e. constant return to scale (CRS). In this study authors show how changing CRS assumption affects environmental policy effectiveness based on Polish example. The problem revealed in the conducted analysis is actual in many countries, where the local perspective may efface global threats. The empirical objective of this paper is to assess cost-effectiveness of environmental policies at the county level under various return to scale (RTS) scenarios. First, environmental pressure was measured in four dimensions: air, soil, water pollution and bio-uniformity; second, the double-bootstrapped truncated regression model under different RTS were estimated, verifying the cost-effectiveness of county and transnational policies. The results send a message that the adoption of CRS assumption recommended in a such case by literature and usually followed by local authorities may lead to misleading assessment of the eco-efficiency level. It was found that local policy loses its impact on the eco-efficiency under VRS and 40% of local authorities in Poland can no longer benefit from economies of scale. The article offers original methodology, first, for measuring eco-efficiency in macroeconomic approach, second, a frontier-based cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), adopting the double-bootstrapped modelling procedure.     

Near term mitigation policy for global change under uncertainty: Minimizing the expected cost of meeting unknown concentration thresholds

An aggregate integrated assessment model is used to investigate the relative merits of hedging over the near term against the chance that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will be limited as a matter of global policy. Hedging strategies are evaluated given near term uncertainty about the targeted level of limited concentrationsand the trajectory of future carbon emissions. All uncertainty is resolved in the year 2020, and strategies that minimize the expected discounted value of the long term cost of abatement, including the extra cost of adjusting downstream to meet unexpected concentration limits along unanticipated emission trajectories, are identified. Even with uncertainties that span current wisdom on emission futures and restriction thresholds that run from 550 ppm through 850 ppm, the results offer support for at most modest abatement response over the next several decades to the threat of global change.     

Hemerocallis as bioindicator of fluoride pollution in tropical countries

In the frame of an active monitoring study at the Serra do Mar near the industrial pool of Cubatão, Brazil,Hemerocallis was tested for its suitability as bioindicator of airborne fluoride pollution. In a screening experiment with various cultivars comparison of susceptibility, correlation of visible injury and foliar fluoride concentration as well as comparison with exposure ofGladiolus gave best results for theHemerocallis cultivar ‘Red Moon’. When exposed simultaneously foliar fluoride accumulation ofHemerocallis showed a highly significant linear correlation with fluoride content ofLolium multiflorum, the ‘standardized grass culture’ andGladiolus, well-known bioindicator species for fluoride impact. With respect to the extent of foliar injuryHemerocallis was less sensitive thanGladiolus, in terms of accumulation capacity it ranged betweenLolium andGladiolus. In general, the results of the biomonitoring study proved that the Atlantic Forest vegetation in a valley downwind from the Cubatão fertilizer industries is still suffering from severe fluoride pollution.     

Environmental impact assessment: National approaches and international needs

This paper examines the spread and development of ‘environmental impact assessment’ (EIA) since the enactment of the U.S. Environmental Policy Act on January 1, 1970, which established for the first time under any jurisdiction the formal requirement that an EIA be made and that an ‘environmental impact statement’ (EIS) be filed prior to implementation of certain major development projects. The paper is divided into three parts. In the first part, we briefly review the forms of EIA introduced in the western industrial countries and contrast these with developments in the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, and in the Third World. The approaches to EIA adopted by five countries — the United States, Australia, Canada, the Federal Republic of Germany, and the Soviet Union — are used to illustrate the types of national approaches that have been followed. In the second part of the paper, we use some questions raised by impact assessments as codified in legislation or regulations at the national level to highlight some of the limitations of impact assessment. Finally, we turn to international impact assessments and describe the modest progress made to date. Key impediments to the development of appropriate conceptual and institutional frameworks and methodologies for international EIAs are noted. In conclusion, we offer some suggestions about needed actions at both the national and international levels.     

Associations between self-reported odour annoyance and volatile organic compounds in ‘Chemical Valley’, Sarnia, Ontario

Annoyance produced by air pollution has been suggested as a useful proxy for determining ambient air pollution exposure. However, most of the studies, to date, have focused on nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide, with no work done on volatile organic compounds (VOC). This study is aimed at examining the associations between odour annoyance and VOC in ‘Chemical Valley’, Sarnia, Ontario, Canada. Annoyance scores were extracted from a community health survey (N?=?774), and exposures to VOC were estimated from respondents’ six-digit alphanumeric postal codes using land use regression models. Univariate analyses were used to explore the relationships between odour annoyance and modelled pollutants, whilst multivariate ordinal logistic regression was utilized to examine the determinants of odour annoyance. The results indicate that odour annoyance is significantly associated with modelled benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene and (m?+?p)?xylene (BTEX) pollutants. The findings also show that the determinants of odour annoyance in the context of VOC include gender, number of relatives in the community, perception of air pollution, community satisfaction, medical checkups, ability to cope with daily life demands and general symptoms. When compared, the analysis indicates that Sarnia residents respond to considerably lower BTEX concentrations than the allowable ‘safe’ levels in the province of Ontario. In general, the results exhibit a dose–response gradient with annoyance score increasing with rising modelled pollutant concentrations. The observed relationships suggest that odour annoyance might be a function of true exposure and may serve as a proxy for air quality and ambient air pollution monitoring. However, questionnaire-based odour annoyance scores need to be longitudinally validated across different geographical scales and pollutants if they are to be adopted at the national level.     

Optimal Environmental Policy for a Polluting Monopoly with Abatement Costs: Taxes Versus Standards

In this paper, we characterize the optimal environmental policy for a polluting monopoly that devotes resources to abatement activities when damages are caused by a stock pollutant. With this aim, we calculate the stagewise feedback Stackelberg equilibrium of a (differential) policy game where the regulator is the leader and the monopolist is the follower. Our analysis shows that the first-best policy consists of applying a Pigouvian tax and a subsidy on production equal to the difference between the price and the marginal revenue. However, for a stock pollutant, the Pigouvian tax is not equal to the marginal damages but is given by the difference between the social and private valuation of the pollution stock. On the other hand, if a second-best emission tax is used, the tax is lower than the Pigouvian tax and the difference decreases with the price elasticity of the demand. Finally, we find that taxes and standards are equivalent in a second-best setting. In the second part of the paper, we solve a linear-quadratic differential game and we obtain that the first-best tax increases with the pollution stock whereas the subsidy decreases. Moreover, the tax is negative for low values of the pollution stock, i.e., for low values of the pollution stock, we obtain that the social valuation of the stock is lower than the private valuation. Furthermore, when a second-best policy is applied, the steady-state pollution stock is lower than the steady-state pollution stock associated with the efficient outcome.     

Publicly available datasets on thallium (Tl) in the environment—a comment on <Emphasis Type="Italic">“Presence of thallium in the environment: sources of contaminations,distribution and monitoring methods”</Emphasis> by Bozena Karbowska,Environ Monit Assess (2016) 188:640 (DOI 10.1007/s10661-016-5647-y)

This comment highlights a whole series of datasets on thallium concentrations in the environment that were overlooked in the recent review by Karbowska, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 188, 640, 2016 in this journal. Geochemical surveys carried out over the last few decades all over the world at various scales and using different sampling media have reported the concentration of thallium (and dozens more elements) in tens of thousands of samples. These datasets provide a ‘real-world’ foundation upon which source apportionment investigations can be based, monitoring programs devised and modelling studies designed. Furthermore, this comment also draws attention to two global geochemical mapping initiatives that should be of interest to environmental scientists.     

Analysis of long-term water quality for effective river health monitoring in peri-urban landscapes—a case study of the Hawkesbury–Nepean river system in NSW, Australia

The Hawkesbury–Nepean River (HNR) system in South-Eastern Australia is the main source of water supply for the Sydney Metropolitan area and is one of the more complex river systems due to the influence of urbanisation and other activities in the peri-urban landscape through which it flows. The long-term monitoring of river water quality is likely to suffer from data gaps due to funding cuts, changes in priority and related reasons. Nevertheless, we need to assess river health based on the available information. In this study, we demonstrated how the Factor Analysis (FA), Hierarchical Agglomerative Cluster Analysis (HACA) and Trend Analysis (TA) can be applied to evaluate long-term historic data sets. Six water quality parameters, viz., temperature, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, oxides of nitrogen, suspended solids and reactive silicates, measured at weekly intervals between 1985 and 2008 at 12 monitoring stations located along the 300 km length of the HNR system were evaluated to understand the human and natural influences on the river system in a peri-urban landscape. The application of FA extracted three latent factors which explained more than 70 % of the total variance of the data and related to the ‘bio-geographical’, ‘natural’ and ‘nutrient pollutant’ dimensions of the HNR system. The bio-geographical and nutrient pollution factors more likely related to the direct influence of changes and activities of peri-urban natures and accounted for approximately 50 % of variability in water quality. The application of HACA indicated two major clusters representing clean and polluted zones of the river. On the spatial scale, one cluster was represented by the upper and lower sections of the river (clean zone) and accounted for approximately 158 km of the river. The other cluster was represented by the middle section (polluted zone) with a length of approximately 98 km. Trend Analysis indicated how the point sources influence river water quality on spatio-temporal scales, taking into account the various effects of nutrient and other pollutant loads from sewerage effluents, agriculture and other point and non-point sources along the river and major tributaries of the HNR. Over the past 26 years, water temperature has significantly increased while suspended solids have significantly decreased (p?<?0.05). The analysis of water quality data through FA, HACA and TA helped to characterise the key sections and cluster the key water quality variables of the HNR system. The insights gained from this study have the potential to improve the effectiveness of river health-monitoring programs in terms of cost, time and effort, particularly in a peri-urban context.     

The inherent tensions arising from attempting to carry out strategic environmental assessments on all policies,plans and programmes

This paper evaluates the tensions that result from routinely applying SEA to all policies, plans and programmes within Scotland. The European Union SEA Directive, effective in many EU member states from 2004, introduced a requirement for environmental assessment of certain plans and programmes. Scotland, a devolved nation within the EU member state of the United Kingdom, aimed to be a ‘world leader in SEA’ by legislating for SEA to be undertaken of all public sector plans, programmes and strategies, with the word ‘strategies’ being equated with ‘policies’. This paper presents detailed data regarding Scottish SEA activity between 2004 and 2007, including responses to consultations on SEA reports. This empirical research found that, reflecting a general difficulty in determining where and when SEA should be applied, engagement with the SEA process was not as widespread as intended (including the pre-screening and screening stages). Eight tensions evident from Scotland's application of SEA are identified, and their broader relevance is examined.