‘Learning by doing’: adaptive planning as a strategy to address uncertainty in planning

Adaptive management, an established method in natural resource and ecosystem management, has not been widely applied to landscape planning due to the lack of an operational method that addresses the role of uncertainty and standardized monitoring protocols and methods. A review of adaptive management literature and practices reveals several key concepts and principles for adaptive planning: (1) management actions are best understood and practiced as experiments; (2) several plans/experiments can be implemented simultaneously; (3) monitoring of management actions are key; and (4) adaptive management can be understood as ‘learning by doing’. The paper identifies various uncertainties in landscape planning as the major obstacles for the adoption of an adaptive approach. To address the uncertainty in landscape planning, an adaptive planning method is proposed where monitoring plays an integral role to reduce uncertainty. The proposed method is then applied to a conceptual test in water resource planning addressing abiotic-biotic-cultural resources. To operationalize adaptive planning, it is argued that professionals, stakeholders and researchers need to function in a genuinely transdisciplinary mode where all contribute to, and benefit from, decision making and the continuous generation of new knowledge.     

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF LARGE RIVERS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The technocratic approach for managing the Missouri River and other large rivers is not effective in resolving conflicts among competing uses of water and dealing with uncertainty about how river ecosystems respond to alternative management actions. Adaptive management offers an alternative way to address these and other issues. It has the potential to alleviate management gridlock and provide lasting solutions to management of the Missouri River and other large river ecosystems. In passive adaptive management, simulation models and expert judgment are combined to select a preferred management action. While passive adaptive management is relatively simple and inexpensive to use, it does not necessarily provide reliable information for making management decisions. Active adaptive management uses statistically designed experiments to test assumptions or hypotheses about ecosystem responses to management actions. It is best carried out by a collaborative working group. Active adaptive management has several advantages, but the inability to satisfy certain prerequisites for successful application makes it more difficult to implement in large river ecosystems. A second‐best approach is proposed here to select, implement, monitor, and evaluate a preferred management action and retain that action provided ecological conditions improve and socioeconomic indicators do not fall below established acceptability limits.     

Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

An ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers of the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh region,Bangladesh

This paper applies an ecosystem approach to analyse the livelihood of fishers dependent on the Old Brahmaputra River in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Results suggest that the livelihood of fishers is increasingly threatened because of the fragile river ecosystem and poor livelihood assets. Most fishers face a wide range of vulnerability including shocks, trends and seasonality. This is because the ecosystem of the resource base on which their livelihood depends (i.e. the Old Brahmaputra River) has been degraded severely resulting in a significant decline in fish catch due to a combination of factors, such as over-fishing, use of destructive fishing gears, water pollution, siltation, rapid urbanisation and environmental degradation. We propose an adoption of the socio-ecological system with active community participation in the management of the resource base and collaboration amongst key stakeholders to produce positive livelihood outcomes for the fishers.     

The Importance of Process in Ecosystem Management: Lessons from the Lachlan Catchment,New South Wales,Australia

Effective river management requires integration of biophysical and human dimensions of the ecosystem, which in turn involves the development of new forms of decision-making processes and institutional frameworks. In New South Wales, institutional changes to river management have been formalized in the Water Management Act 2000. This paper presents the findings of a case study that investigated decision-making processes in the establishment of environmental flow regimes for the Lachlan River in western New South Wales. The study was based on document analysis, observation and interviews with members and support staff of a stakeholder-based river management committee. The findings of the study highlight social capital, adaptive management and consensus decision making as key components in establishing environmental flow regimes as part of a participatory approach to river management.     

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management.     

Integrating local and technical knowledge to support soil salinity monitoring in the Amudarya river basin

The role of monitoring is changing due to the increasing awareness of complexity and uncertainty in environmental resources management. Monitoring systems are required to support critical reflection about the effectiveness of actions toward the achievement of management objectives. To this aim, monitoring should be based on a strong integrated and multi-scale approach. Monitoring costs could be prohibitive if the monitoring is only based on traditional scientific methods of measurements. To deal with these issues, the design of an innovative monitoring system should be based on the integration between different sources of knowledge and information. In this work the usability of local knowledge to support environmental monitoring is investigated. A multi-step participatory monitoring design process has been implemented aiming to design a program for soil salinity monitoring in the lower Amudarya river basin in Uzbekistan. Although there is an increasing awareness of the importance of stakeholders being involved in decision processes, the current socio-cultural and institutional context is not favourable to the participatory approach. The choice of method to be implemented in this work was influenced by such conditions. The analysis of the lessons learned from the experiences gained in this project revealed some important clues concerning the development of a locally-based monitoring program. These lessons can be subdivided according to three fundamental issues: the long term involvement of local community members in monitoring activities, the acceptance of locally-based monitoring systems by decision makers, and the reliability of monitoring information.     

Evaluating Adaptive Governance Approaches to Sustainable Water Management in North-West Thailand

Adaptive governance is advanced as a potent means of addressing institutional fit of natural resource systems with prevailing modes of political–administrative management. Its advocates also argue that it enhances participatory and learning opportunities for stakeholders over time. Yet an increasing number of studies demonstrate real difficulties in implementing adaptive governance ‘solutions’. This paper builds on these debates by examining the introduction of adaptive governance to water management in Chiang Mai province, north-west Thailand. The paper considers, first, the limitations of current water governance modes at the provincial scale, and the rationale for implementation of an adaptive approach. The new approach is then critically examined, with its initial performance and likely future success evaluated by (i) analysis of water stakeholders’ opinions of its first year of operation; and (ii) comparison of its governance attributes against recent empirical accounts of implementation difficulty and failure of adaptive governance of natural resource management more generally. The analysis confirms the potentially significant role that the new approach can play in brokering and resolving the underlying differences in stakeholder representation and knowledge construction at the heart of the prevailing water governance modes in north-west Thailand.     

DYNAMICS OF WETLAND DEVELOPMENT AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN LAS VEGAS WASH,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the co‐evolution of the Las Vegas, Nevada metropolitan area, Las Vegas Wash ecosystem‐a downstream riparian wetland‐and Wash management as a case of urban‐environment dynamics. Since Las Vegas Wash provides the primary drainage for Las Vegas, changes in the urban system lead to changes in the Wash and its ecosystem. The population of the drainage area has grown from approximately 1,000 people in 1900 to more than 1.3 million in 2000. This phenomenal population growth led to increased Wash flow, from less than .03 m³/sec (1 ft³/sec) to over 7.4 m³/sec (260 ft³/sec), and consequent ecological changes from a nearly dry wash to a rich wetland, and now to an eroded system. As the Wash ecosystem changed, valuation of Wash characteristics by residents and resource managers also changed, shifting the focus of management and use, which ultimately led to further ecosystem changes. Reciprocal relationships among human activity, environmental change, and management in this urban area highlight the need for a comprehensive and dynamic systems perspective and adaptive approaches in urban environmental management and make this a particularly compelling case study. This paper describes a conceptual systems framework for adaptive urban‐environment management derived from this case.     

Theory into Practice: Implementing Ecosystem Management Objectives in the USDA Forest Service

In the United States and around the world, scientists and practitioners have debated the definition and merits of ecosystem management as a new approach to natural resource management. While these debates continue, a growing number of organizations formally have adopted ecosystem management. However, adoption does not necessarily lead to successful implementation, and theories are not always put into practice. In this article, we examine how a leading natural resource agency, the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, has translated ecosystem management theory into concrete policy objectives and how successfully these objectives are perceived to be implemented throughout the national forest system. Through document analysis, interviews, and survey responses from 345 Forest Service managers (district rangers, forest supervisors, and regional foresters), we find that the agency has incorporated numerous ecosystem management components into its objectives. Agency managers perceive that the greatest attainment of such objectives is related to collaborative stewardship and integration of scientific information, areas in which the organization has considerable prior experience. The objectives perceived to be least attained are adaptive management and integration of social and economic information, areas requiring substantial new resources and a knowledge base not traditionally emphasized by natural resource managers. Overall, success in implementing ecosystem management objectives is linked to committed forest managers.     

Approaches to the implementation of the Water Framework Directive: targeting mitigation measures at critical source areas of diffuse phosphorus in Irish catchments

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has initiated a shift towards a targeted approach to implementation through its focus on river basin districts as management units and the natural ecological characteristics of waterbodies. Due to its role in eutrophication, phosphorus (P) has received considerable attention, resulting in a significant body of research, which now forms the evidence base for the programme of measures (POMs) adopted in WFD River Basin Management Plans (RBMP). Targeting POMs at critical sources areas (CSAs) of P could significantly improve environmental efficiency and cost effectiveness of proposed mitigation strategies. This paper summarises the progress made towards targeting mitigation measures at CSAs in Irish catchments. A review of current research highlights that knowledge related to P export at field scale is relatively comprehensive however; the availability of site-specific data and tools limits widespread identification of CSA at this scale. Increasing complexity of hydrological processes at larger scales limits accurate identification of CSA at catchment scale. Implementation of a tiered approach, using catchment scale tools in conjunction with field-by-field surveys could decrease uncertainty and provide a more practical and cost effective method of delineating CSA in a range of catchments. Despite scientific and practical uncertainties, development of a tiered CSA-based approach to assist in the development of supplementary measures would provide a means of developing catchment-specific and cost-effective programmes of measures for diffuse P. The paper presents a conceptual framework for such an approach, which would have particular relevance for the development of supplementary measures in High Status Waterbodies (HSW). The cost and resources necessary for implementation are justified based on HSWs' value as undisturbed reference condition ecosystems.     

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.     

Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas

Commonly used methods of evaluating the degree of consistency of protected area ecosystems with social and ecological carrying capacities are likely to result in decision errors. This occurs because such methods do not account for imprecision and uncertainty in inferring the degree of ecosystem consistency from an observed ecosystem indicator. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive management approach to determine whether a protected area ecosystem is consistent with ecological and social carrying capacities and, if not, to identify management actions that are most likely to achieve consistency when there is uncertainty about the current degree of consistency and how alternative management actions are likely to influence that consistency. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example that uses an ecosystem indicator that reflects combinations of different levels of user satisfaction and conservation of threatened and endangered species. Application of the proposed fuzzy adaptive management approach requires a protected area manager to: (1) identify alternative management actions for achieving ecosystem consistency with social and ecological carrying capacities in each of several management zones in a protected area; (2) randomly assign alternative management actions to management zones; (3) define fuzzy sets for the ecosystem indicator and degree of ecosystem consistency, and fuzzy relations between the ecosystem indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency; (4) monitor the indicator in each management zone; (5) define fuzzy sets based on the observed indicator in each management zone; and (6) combine the fuzzy sets defined on the observed indicator and the fuzzy relations between the indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency to reach conclusions about the most likely degree of consistency for alternative management actions in each management zone. The fuzzy adaptive management approach proposed here is advantageous when the benefits of avoiding the decision errors inherent with crisp and stochastic decision rules outweigh the added cost of implementing the approach.     

Adaptive Management of Nonnative Species: Moving Beyond the “Either-Or” Through Experimental Pluralism

This paper develops the outlines of a pragmatic, adaptive management-based approach toward the control of invasive nonnative species (INS) through a case study of Kings Bay/Crystal River, a large artesian springs ecosystem that is one of Florida’s most important habitats for endangered West Indian manatees (Trichechus manatus). Building upon recent critiques of invasion biology, principles of adaptive management, and our own interview and participant–observer research, we argue that this case study represents an example in which rigid application of invasion biology’s a␣priori imperative to minimize INS has produced counterproductive results from both an ecological and social standpoint. As such, we recommend that INS control in Kings Bay should be relaxed in conjunction with an overall program of adaptive ecosystem management that includes meaningful participation and input from non-institutional stakeholders. However, we also note that adaptive management and INS control are by no means mutually exclusive, in Kings Bay or elsewhere. Instead, we suggest that adaptive management offers a means by which INS control efforts can emerge from—and be evaluated through—ongoing scientific research and participatory dialogue about the condition of specific places, rather than non-contextual assumptions about the harmfulness of INS as a general class.     

The Usefulness of a Threat and Disturbance Categorization Developed for Queensland Wetlands to Environmental Management,Monitoring, and Evaluation

There is no comprehensive system of describing threats and disturbances currently used in Australia, despite the widespread impacts of human activities on natural ecosystems. Yet a detailed categorization would facilitate the collation of threatening process information into information systems; enable standardized collection and availability of data; and enable comparative analyses of ecosystem condition between stakeholders, agencies, states, and nations, particularly for environmental reporting and evaluation mechanisms such as State of the Environment. As part of the Queensland Wetlands Programme (QWP), a threat and disturbance framework was developed, focused on the pressure and impacts components of the DPSIR (driver-pressure-state-impacts-response) framework. A wetland inventory database was developed also that included a detailed threat and disturbance categorization using the QWP framework. The categorization encompasses a broad range of anthropogenic and natural processes, and is hierarchical to accommodate varying levels of detail or knowledge. By incorporating detailed qualitative and quantitative information, a comprehensive threats and disturbances categorization can contribute to conceptual or spatially explicit knowledge and management assessments. The application of the framework and categorization to several threatening processes is demonstrated, and its relationship to current natural resource condition indicators is discussed. Threat evaluation is an essential component of ecological assessment and environmental management, and a standardized categorization enables consistency in attributing processes, impacts and their short- to long-term consequences. Such a systematic framework and categorization demonstrates the importance and usefulness of comprehensive approaches, and this approach can be readily adapted to management, monitoring and evaluation of other target ecosystems and biota.     

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Challenges for Regional Ecosystem Management

An adaptive management approach is necessary but not sufficient to address the long-term challenges of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Adaptive management, in turn, has its own particular challenges, of which we focus on two: science input, and stakeholder engagement. In order to frame our discussion and subsequent recommendations, we place the current management difficulties into their historical context, with special emphasis on the 1990 Vision document, which attempted a broad synthesis of management goals for the ecosystem. After examining these two key challenges in the context of the GYE, we make several recommendations that would allow for more effective ecosystem management in the long term. First, we recommend adoption of the GYE as a site for long-term science research and monitoring with an emphasis on integrative research, long-term federal funding, and public dissemination of data. Second, we conclude that a clearer prioritization of legislative mandates would allow for more flexible ecosystem management in the GYE, a region where conflicting mandates have historically led to litigation antithetical to effective ecosystem management. Finally, we recommend a renewed attempt at an updated Vision for the Future that engages stakeholders (including local landholders) substantively from the outset.     

Plains cottonwood's last stand: can it survive invasion of Russian olive onto the Milk River, Montana floodplain?

Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia L.) was introduced in 1950 onto one site on the Milk River floodplain, northern Montana, 10 km downstream from the Canada/United States border. To analyze dispersal of Russian olive from the point source between 1950 and 1999, we compared distribution, numbers, size structure, and mortality of Russian olive and plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides Marsh:) on an unregulated reach of the Milk River floodplain in southeastern Alberta and north-central Montana. Within 50 years, Russian olive in this reach has moved upriver into Alberta and downriver to the Fresno Reservoir. It is now present on 69 of the 74 meander lobes sampled, comprising 34%, 62%, and 61% of all Russian olive and plains cottonwood seedlings, saplings, and trees, respectively. On some meander lobes, Russian olive has colonized similar elevations on the floodplain as plains cottonwood and is oriented in rows paralleling the river channel, suggesting that recruitment may be related to river processes. Breakup ice had killed 400 Russian olive saplings and trees and damaged >1000 others on 30 of the meander lobes in 1996. Nevertheless, Russian olive now outnumbers cottonwood on many sites on the Milk River floodplain because its seeds can be dispersed by wildlife (particularly birds) and probably by flood water and ice rafts; seeds are viable for up to 3 years and germination can take place on bare and well-vegetated soils; and saplings and trees are less palatable to livestock and beaver than plains cottonwood. Without control, Russian olive could be locally dominant on the Milk River floodplain in all age classes within 10 years and replace plains cottonwood within this century.     

Effects of Fish Stocking on Ecosystem Services: An Overview and Case Study Using the Stockholm Archipelago

In this article, we focus on documented and possible effects of fish stocking in terms of ecosystem services. The increasing use of fish stocking between 1970 and 2000 in the semiurban setting of Stockholm archipelago, Sweden, is used as case study. The objective is to analyze this management practice from an ecosystem perspective, accounting for both the ecological and social context of releasing fish. The results show that enhancements of four native species (Salmo S. trutta, Salmo salar, Stizostedion lucioperca, and Anguilla anguilla) have dominated over new introductions of one nonnative species. (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The major objective has been to increase fish catches for local resource users. Involved stakeholders include three management agencies, one hydropower company, and several local sport fishing associations. Documented effects focus on recapture and production rates. However, our analysis suggests that additional positive or negative effects on biodiversity, food web dynamics, mobile links, or ecological information may also result, with possible consequences for the long-term provision of food, game, and aesthetic values. We conclude that a more adaptive and cooperative management approach could benefit from a deeper analysis of where, when, and what species is released, by whom, which stakeholders that use the fish and those ecosystem services the fish generate, and of the role of formal and informal institutions for monitoring and evaluating the success of releasing fish.