Major hazards—Thinking the unthinkable

It is a common experience that public administrations tend to shy away from the explicit acknowledgment of quantitative risk levels. Faced with extreme concentrations of population and of industrial activities, including LPG and liquid chlorine storage, within a very small land area, Hong Kong has faced up to the issue of major man-made hazards by “thinking the unthinkable” and adopting explicit risk guidelines. This article describes how these guidelines were developed and the arguments that led to their adoption. It is emphasized that the risk guidelines are not rigid standards but simply a method of focusing decision making and ensuring that any decision to contravene the guidelines is taken at an appropriately senior level in the administration. The way in which the guidelines have been incorporated intimately into the planning and decision-making process is described and details are given on how this has led to the implementation of a variety of measures that have greatly reduced both societal and individual risk from certain types of chemical storage and chemical processing installations in Hong Kong. The opinions in this paper represent the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Hong Kong Government.     

PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10‐step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.     

Earthquake Planning for Government Continuity

/ The problem of assuring government operational continuity following earthquakes has been given little research attention. Recent earthquake experience has documented that government organizations without a public safety mission do incur damaged facilities and routinely see increases in public demands following an earthquake. Impediments to service delivery associated with such dam-ages can be minimized if agencies address earthquake plan elements likely to enhance postimpact functioning, including: the potential to relocate operations, protection for the workplace, possession of an organizational inventory, emergency instructions for employees, the ability to use volunteers, and communication capacity. Factors associated with the adoption of these plan elements were studied in one county government and its municipal county seat in the southwestern United States. A census of departments within these jurisdictions was asked to complete a questionnaire reporting the level of planning activity relative to each of these plan elements. It was found that the overall level of preparedness was low, but statistically significantly related to agency size, perceived risk, and information seeking. The implications of these findings underscore the potential for disruption to government service delivery and permit the identification of potential avenues for increasing levels of preparedness.KEY WORDS: Emergency planning; Earthquakes; Government preparedness     

Combating drought through preparedness

Drought is a complex, slow–onset phenomenon that affects more people than any other natural hazard and results in serious economic, social, and environmental impacts. Although drought affects virtually all climatic regimes and has significant consequences in both developed and developing countries, its impacts are especially serious in developing countries where dryland agriculture predominates. The impacts of drought are often an indicator of unsustainable land and water management practices, and drought assistance or relief provided by governments and donors encourages land managers and others to continue these practices. This often results in a greater dependence on government and a decline in self–reliance. Moving from crisis to risk management will require the adoption of a new paradigm for land managers, governments, international and regional development organizations, and non–governmental organizations. This approach emphasizes preparedness, mitigation, and improved early warning systems (EWS) over emergency response and assistance measures. Article 10 of the Convention to Combat Desertification states that national action programmes should be established to identify the factors contributing to desertification and practical measures necessary to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought. In the past 10 years, there has been considerable recognition by governments of the need to develop drought preparedness plans and policies to reduce the impacts of drought. Unfortunately, progress in drought preparedness during the last decade has been slow because most nations lack the institutional capacity and human and financial resources necessary to develop comprehensive drought plans and policies. Recent commitments by governments and international organizations and new drought monitoring technologies and planning and mitigation methodologies are cause for optimism. The challenge is the implementation of these new technologies and methodologies. It is critical for governments that possess this experience to share it with others through regional and global networks. One way to accomplish this goal is to create a network of regional networks on drought preparedness to expedite the adoption of drought preparedness tools to lessen the hardships associated with severe and extended drought episodes.     

A Framework for Understanding and Improving Environmental Decision Making

This paper presents a framework for understanding and improving public sector environmental decision making. Within the framework, four interrelated components are discussed: (1) the environmental and cultural context-understanding this context includes understanding what people consider to be environmental problems, the goals and values that they bring to environmental problems and decision processes, specialized and common knowledge about environmental problems, and the institutional settings within which problems are addressed; (2) planning and appraisal activitiesthese activities include forecasting and monitoring exercises, evaluations of past decisions, and decisions that processes ought to be launched to solve specific environmental problems; (3) decision-making modes-these include six typical ways of conducting an environmental problem-solving process, modes which, in the framework, are called emergency action, routine procedures, analysis-centred, elite corps, conflict management and collaborative learning; (4) decision actions-these include five generic steps that are undertaken, formally or intuitively, in virtually any decision-making situation: issue familiarization; criteria setting; option construction; option assessment; and reaching a decision. In the course of describing the framework, we show a decision-making process can be adapted to incorporate sustainability concerns, including fostering sustainable environmental and social systems, meeting obligations to future generations, and searching for robust and reasonable (rather than rigidly optimal) decisions. The framework also helps to illuminate intriguing questions regarding institutional responsibility, decision process complexity and paradigms for environmental decision making.     

Towards an Integrated Approach to Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Using GIS: With Reference to Bushfires

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.     

Legal requirements for risk and vulnerability assessments in Norwegian land-use planning

Land-use planning has been promoted as an important tool for adaptation to climate change. However, its success depends on effective communication between researchers and decision-makers. A “risk and vulnerability assessment” (RVA) is one method to facilitate the interaction between the groups. RVAs have been performed in Norwegian land-use planning for about 20 years, and been mandatory for new development the last few years. The first part of the article reviews the history and current legal regulation of RVAs in Norway. Continuing, the main part discusses the distribution of authority and responsibility for different parts of the process and result. The key finding is that significant decisions are deferred to municipal discretion, for example, the necessity (if doubtful) and scope of the assessments. Other topics (such as the burden of costs and eligible performers) are largely unregulated, prompting some arguments about the need for further legislative effort.     

Heat as emergency,heat as chronic stress: policy and institutional responses to vulnerability to extreme heat

Increasingly commonplace in cities, extreme heat events introduce multi-stress vulnerability, affecting people’s health and well-being, financial situation, mobility, social relations, and access to basic services. Planning to reduce heat vulnerability has become part of government business and to some extent community-level responses, cutting across a number of sectors including public health, emergency management, social services, critical infrastructure, and housing. This planning is often framed around heat as an emergency, focusing on preventing loss of life and severe health impacts, yet a vulnerability perspective also draws attention to the chronic and persistent impacts of heat. Our research, based on interviews and desktop research in Melbourne, Australia, found tensions between addressing heat as an emergency and heat as a source of chronic stress, with emergency responses taking precedence over responses addressing the chronic dimensions of heat. Each approach results in different but nonetheless related programmatic priorities for reducing vulnerability. In complex institutional settings, improving relations between policy and programme managers, non-government organisations, and vulnerable people themselves would enable the multiple stresses associated with extreme heat to be more effectively addressed. Policy and institutional responses that better appreciate the interconnections between the emergency and chronic aspects of heat would likely reduce vulnerability and contribute to more just approaches to urban sustainability.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Using social network analysis to examine planner involvement in environmentally oriented planning processes led by non-planning professions

Broad stakeholder involvement cannot be assumed in all environmental planning and management processes that have critical land use dimensions. This paper illustrates how concepts and techniques from social network analysis (SNA) can be used to examine and better understand the roles of one type of stakeholders, planners, in environmentally oriented planning and management processes led by other professions. Two cases of natural hazard mitigation planning led by emergency managers illustrate the usefulness of three SNA concepts of network structural characteristics in understanding how differences in planner involvement may influence incorporation of land use approaches in local natural hazard mitigation plans aimed at reducing long term risks from natural hazards.     

The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub‐Saharan Africa

Reducing the impact of drought and famine remains a challenge in sub‐Saharan Africa despite ongoing drought relief assistance in recent decades. This is because drought and famine are primarily addressed through a crisis management approach when a disaster occurs, rather than stressing preparedness and risk management. Moreover, drought planning and food security efforts have been hampered by a lack of integrated drought monitoring tools, inadequate early warning systems (EWS), and insufficient information flow within and between levels of government in many sub‐Saharan countries. The integration of existing drought monitoring tools for sub‐Saharan Africa is essential for improving food security systems to reduce the impacts of drought and famine on society in this region. A proactive approach emphasizing integration requires the collective use of multiple tools, which can be used to detect trends in food availability and provide early indicators at local, national, and regional scales on the likely occurrence of food crises. In addition, improving the ability to monitor and disseminate critical drought‐related information using available modern technologies (e.g., satellites, computers, and modern communication techniques) may help trigger timely and appropriate preventive responses and, ultimately, contribute to food security and sustainable development in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Tales of science and defiance: the case for co-learning and collaboration in bridging the science/emotion divide in water recycling debates

Although science is generally assumed to be well integrated into rational decision-making models, it can be used to destabilise consultative processes, particularly when emotions are involved. Water policies are often seen as debates over technical and engineering issues, but can be highly controversial. Recycled water proposals, in particular, can create highly emotive conflicts. Through a case study regarding the rejection of recycled water proposals in the south-east Queensland, Australia, we explore the influence of science and emotions in contemporary water planning. We highlight the dangers inherent in promoting technical water planning issues at the expense of appropriate consideration of citizen concerns. Combining the science–policy interface and stakeholder engagement literatures, we advocate for collaborative decision-making processes that accommodate emotions and value judgements. A more collaborative stakeholder engagement model, founded on the principles of co-learning, has the potential to broaden the decision-making base and to promote better and more inclusive decision-making.     

Sustainable coasts? Perceptions of change and livelihood vulnerability in Nordland,Norway

ABSTRACT

Northern coastal regions are facing multiple challenges from accelerating global environmental and socioeconomic changes, such as ecosystem degradation, climate change, intensified resource extraction, land use change and declining populations. Based on interviews with 13 farmers, fishers and aquaculture employees from coastal Nordland, northern Norway, this study demonstrates how the local stakeholders’ perceptions of change and experiences of vulnerability are closely linked to their livelihood values and worldviews. What the informants consider a sustainable and meaningful way of coastal living does not coincide with national goals for sustainable, natural resource dependent development of the region. The article demonstrates the importance of attending to local values if policymakers and managers are to ensure successful local mobilisation, reduce vulnerability to ongoing and future processes of change, and ensure legitimacy and consistency in development goals of coastal zone management. Insights from this study are useful for local and regional decision makers with responsibility for natural resource policies and development efforts.     

On the Design of Computer-Based Models for Integrated Environmental Science

The current research agenda in environmental science is dominated by calls to integrate science and policy to better understand and manage links between social (human) and natural (nonhuman) processes. Freshwater resource management is one area where such calls can be heard. Designing computer-based models for integrated environmental science poses special challenges to the research community. At present it is not clear whether such tools, or their outputs, receive much practical policy or planning application. It is argued that this is a result of (1) a lack of appreciation within the research modeling community of the characteristics of different decision-making processes including policy, planning, and (2) participation, (3) a lack of appreciation of the characteristics of different decision-making contexts, (4) the technical difficulties in implementing the necessary support tool functionality, and (5) the socio-technical demands of designing tools to be of practical use. This article presents a critical synthesis of ideas from each of these areas and interprets them in terms of design requirements for computer-based models being developed to provide scientific information support for policy and planning. Illustrative examples are given from the field of freshwater resources management. Although computer-based diagramming and modeling tools can facilitate processes of dialogue, they lack adequate simulation capabilities. Component-based models and modeling frameworks provide such functionality and may be suited to supporting problematic or messy decision contexts. However, significant technical (implementation) and socio-technical (use) challenges need to be addressed before such ambition can be realized.     

Compliance of Australian threatened species recovery plans with legislative requirements

Recovery plans are the main documents supporting management decision-making for threatened species. We evaluated Australian recovery plans to assess their appropriateness as conservation and management planning instruments. Six legislative requirements (species information and general requirements, species distribution and location, known and potential threats, objectives, performance criteria and actions, duration of the plan, and estimated costs of plan implementation) were used to assess the degree of compliance of recovery plans with the relevant legislation. We assessed all 236 official recovery plans which had been adopted as at January 2006. The results showed that plans were most compliant regarding the setting of objectives, performance criteria, recovery actions, and duration of plan. Most plans included a single performance criterion that was generally related to the population status of target species. Improvement is required in relation to identification of current threats and critical habitats, and the establishment of basic elements of monitoring and evaluation for measuring recovery progress. Gaps in ecological information are the main factors affecting adequate compliance with legislative requirements as opposed to managerial information (e.g. clarity in establishing the implementation schedule, costs and resource allocation). Planning deficiencies could be addressed by improving the recovery planning guidelines and more carefully reviewing the drafting and adoption of new plans.     

Operational Atmospheric Modeling System CARIS for Effective Emergency Response Associated with Hazardous Chemical Releases in Korea

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time.This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.Published online     

Dutch new nature: (re)landscaping the Millingerwaard

This paper analyses how discourses of “new nature” have been implemented in the Dutch context – as a front runner of broader “rewilding” processes throughout Europe – frequently tied to imperatives of water safety. Drawing on the specific case of the Millingerwaard, we first examine how such discourses have materially, as well as socially, transformed the landscape in question. The paper then explores how these transformations have erstwhile affected those living in the area – in ways that are perceived, positively or negatively – according to varied groups of residents and users. In doing so, we critically reflect not only on “new nature” as it has been conceived within planning processes, and empirically practiced, in the Netherlands, but also how it is described and experienced by those whose lives are intimately tied to the landscape.     

The role of participation in the planning process: examples from Sweden

Participation in decision-making has successively developed into a guiding principle at both EU and national level. However, diverse perspectives exist on what the role of different interests in participative processes should be, and the legal rules regarding participation varies between different sectors; from clearly defined to virtually non-existent requirements. This may have adverse effects on the legitimacy of decisions and decision-making. This paper reviews the role of participation in the planning process in relation to natural resource development in Sweden, as guided by EU and international law. Based on the notion of effective participation, the study illustrates the potential clashes that may result from different conceptions of participation, for instance, at various levels of governance, as well as from disparate principles for implementation in different sectors.     

Constrained Choice and Ethical Dilemmas in Land Management: Environmental Quality and Food Safety in California Agriculture

As environmental and conservation efforts increasingly turn towards agricultural landscapes, it is important to understand how land management decisions are made by agricultural producers. While previous studies have explored producer decision-making, many fail to recognize the importance of external structural influences. This paper uses a case study to explore how consolidated markets and increasing corporate power in the food system can constrain producer choice and create ethical dilemmas over land management. Crop growers in the Central Coast region of California face conflicting demands regarding environmental quality and industry imposed food safety standards. A mail survey and personal interviews were used to explore growers’ perceptions and actions regarding these demands. Results indicate that in many cases growers face serious ethical dilemmas and feel pressured by large processing and retail firms to adopt measures they find environmentally destructive and unethical. Future strategies to address environmental issues on agricultural landscapes should consider the economic constraints producers face and the role of large firms in creating production standards.     

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data.