国际城市CO2排放清单研究进展及评述

综述和分析了国际城市CO2排放清单研究进展,及国际组织/机构建立的城市清单标准和协议.将城市清单方法划分为直接排放法、碳足迹法和直接-间接排放混合法,并比较分析了各种方法的特点和优劣势.探讨了城市清单中范围3的内容和计算深度及城市交通排放分配问题.早期城市排放清单基本沿用国家清单方法,但当城市作为消费者的特色愈加明显,其清单方法学受城市物质循环思想的影响,已经不同于国家清单方法并逐渐成熟.在准确性、公平性和效率性原则下,直接-间接排放混合法成为城市清单的主流方法,当前排放主要包括范围1+范围2,但未来范围1+范围2+范围3(重点产品和服务)将成为主流趋势.城市清单中范围3的标准化和可操作性问题,及城市交通分配方法的统一和规范是近期城市清单研究的重点和难点.城市CO2排放监测将会成为城市清单的重要支撑,其作为独立数据源将在城市清单的可测量、可报告、可核查中会发挥重要作用.     

Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO₂ emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO₂ emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO₂ emission during the period 1971-2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO₂ emission trend from 4^th Five Year Plan through 10^th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO₂ emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO₂ order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11^th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO₂ emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.     

A laboratory study on CO2 emission from asphalt binder and its reduction with the use of warm mix asphalt

Oxidation of hydrocarbon in asphalt binder leads to the production of carbon dioxide (CO₂) during the production of hot mix asphalt. The objective of this laboratory study was to investigate the effects of the asphalt additive Sasobit^®, asphalt content and mixing/placement temperature on CO₂ emissions from binder with laboratory measurements. The isolated effects of Sasobit on asphalt absorption into the aggregate were also looked at. Temperature was found to be the only statistically significant factor on emissions. This would suggest that warm mix asphalt technology, which employs the use of Sasobit in asphalt mixtures, is a very effective way of lowering the industry's CO₂ emission impact, both directly and by the use of less energy for heating. This work predicts that greater than 30% reduction of CO₂ emissions is possible with typically used levels of Sasobit.     

Carbon dioxide exchange in the photosynthetic apparatus of trees in a mature spruce phytocenosis of the northern taiga subzone

Carbon dioxide exchange was studied in the photosynthetic apparatus of Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.), Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), and weeping birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in a mature spruce forest. Parameters of CO₂ balance in different weather were characterized quantitatively on the basis of daily measurements of CO₂ exchange in needles and leaves of woody plants. The percent ratios of the components of carbon balance in needles and leaves of woody plants depending on daily photosynthetic fixation of carbon were determined. In summer, trees consumed 210 kg CO₂/ha (57 kg C/ha) in variable weather and 117 kg CO₂/ha (32 kg C/ha) in cloudy weather. Species specificity of CO₂ consumption was revealed, and the effects of environmental factors on the assimilatory activity of trees were determined.     

Carbon cycle in spruce ecosystems of the northern Taiga subzone

The main components of the carbon balance have been determined in old spruce-bilberry forests of the northern taiga subzone. Annual carbon deposition in live phytomass and necromass has been determined by the weight method. Photosynthetic carbon binding has been calculated using the chlorophyll index, and the daily carbon balance has been estimated on the basis of direct measurements of CO₂ exchange. The results have shown that photosynthetic carbon binding by the phytocenosis amounts to 3.5–4 t/ha per year. Taking into consideration the litter yearly deposition decreased up to 1 t C/ha per year. With more than 70% of carbon accumulated in the organic mass being oxidized within the phytocenosis and returned to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂. Spruce ecosystems serve as a sink for 0.2–0.3 t C/ha per year.     

Predicting CO2 and SO2 emissions in the Baltic States through reorganization of energy infrastructure

The paper deals with predicting carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions generated by power production sector in the Baltic States in period up to year 2020. The economies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are rapidly growing therefore forecast of emissions related with this occurrence becomes very important. The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP), one of the largest in the world, is situated in the region. Two power production scenarios are modelled to investigate changes in power sector's emissions expected as the consequences of the coming closure of Ignalina NPP. Power market was assumed to be common for all three Baltic countries and was modelled by applying the Balmorel model. The planned closure of Ignalina NPP will bring restructuring of Lithuania power production sector and will change also power transmission between countries. Predictive identified the potential of investments for new modern power generation technologies. At the same time, modelling results show in both scenarios that CO(2) and SO(2) emissions from power production in the Baltic region will increase. The increment of emissions is discussed in the context of meeting requirements of UNFCCC Kyoto protocol and EC Directives. Despite of CO(2) emissions increase the Kyoto protocol's requirements may be expected. At the same time, SO(2) formation in Lithuania power sector may exceed the limits of the EU Council Directive 2001/80/EB therefore the additional measures to control SO(2) emissions have to be investigated.     

中国工业CO_2排放的行业间传导网络及协同减排

工业是碳排放的主要部门,科学识别工业CO_2排放的行业间传导并揭示其联动结构对于跨行业协同减排具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于1991-2012年中国工业36个两位数行业数据,在VAR模型框架下,利用Granger因果检验方法对CO_2排放的行业间传导关系进行了识别,并从关系视角出发,借助社会网络分析方法(SNA)揭示工业CO_2排放行业间传导的整体和个体网络结构特征,研究发现:工业CO_2排放的行业间传导呈网络结构形态,网络密度在1-6期的滞后阶数下呈先升高后下降的趋势,并且在滞后2期达到最高;燃气生产和供应业、电力热力生产和供应业、服装业、造纸及纸制品业、木材加工业具有较高的度数中心度、中介中心度、接近中心度,在网络中处于核心位置,并发挥中介和桥梁作用;在CO_2排放的行业传导网络中,煤炭采选业、黑色金属矿采选业、有色金属矿采选业等10个行业属于经纪人板块,医药制造业、饮料制造业、化学纤维制造业等9个行业属于净受益板块,金属制品业、塑料制品业、农副食品加工业等11个行业属于双向溢出板块,烟草加工业、石油加工及炼焦业、燃气生产和供应业等6个行业属于净溢出板块。基于上述结论,本文提出了工业CO_2排放的跨行业协同减排思路。     

Carbon accumulation in lowland bog soils of fallow lands in Murmansk oblast

The dynamics of organic carbon accumulation in lowland bog soils of Murmansk oblast were assessed by analyzing soil samples from fields formerly sown with perennial grasses but withdrawn from agricultural use three, six, and eight years ago. Within three years, the organic carbon content in the topsoil (0–20 cm) increased by 0.07%, compared to that in cultivated soil. In six-and eight-year-old fallows, the increase in the soil carbon content averaged 0.2 and 0.46%, respectively. Experimental data were used for verifying calculations of carbon turnover in lowland bog soils of fallows in Murmansk oblast by the RothC model.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions peak: China’s objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO₂ reduction and emission peak, and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO₂ emissions reduction. They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment, and internal needs, to achieve sustainable development. Generally speaking, a country's CO₂ emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization. By then, connotative economic growth will appear, GDP will grow slowly, energy consumption elasticity will decrease, and energy consumption growth will slow down – dependent mainly on new and renewable energies. Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further. When CO₂ emission reaches its peak, the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate; and the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption. Therefore, three important approaches to promotion of CO₂ emission peak can be concluded: maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth, strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity, and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO₂ intensity of energy use. By around 2030, China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization. Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment. The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3% or higher. The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20–25%, and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6–8%. The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5% will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels. The annual decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP will reach 4.5% or higher, which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% in order to reach CO₂ emission peak. This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth. Achieving CO₂ emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development, but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green, low-carbon development. The CO₂ emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons, which means that CO₂ emission will increase by less than 50% compared with 2010. The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons, which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US, future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO₂ emission peak discussed above. It depends on current and future strategies and policies, as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation, innovation, and new energy technologies. If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations, the time required to reach CO₂ emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected. Therefore, we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance; to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities; to enact mid- to long-term energy development strategies; and to establish and improve a system of laws, regulations, and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green, low-carbon development. Oriented by positive and urgent CO₂ reduction and peak targets, the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green, low-carbon development as soon as possible.     

Ecophysiological Responses of Larix sibiricaLedeb. and Pinus sibiricaDu Tour Undergrowth to Climate Change

The effects of probable climate change—an increase in atmospheric CO₂(by two times), air temperature, precipitation—on CO₂exchange and temperature dependence of net photosynthesis in the larch and Siberian stone pine undergrowth formed in the light larch forests of West Siberia were studied in chambers with an artificial climate. The change of the aforementioned ecological factors caused an increase in the temperature optima of photosynthesis and the range of optimum temperatures (in the case of Siberian stone pine, to a slightly greater degree). Therefore, the ranges of both species may broaden, and the Siberian stone pine can expand to the north, displacing larch tree stands.     

Persistence of radon-222 flux during monsoon at a geothermal zone in Nepal

The Syabru-Bensi hydrothermal zone, Langtang region (Nepal), is characterized by high radon-222 and CO₂ discharge. Seasonal variations of gas fluxes were studied on a reference transect in a newly discovered gas discharge zone. Radon-222 and CO₂ fluxes were measured with the accumulation chamber technique, coupled with the scintillation flask method for radon. In the reference transect, fluxes reach exceptional mean values, as high as 8700 ± 1500 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for CO₂ and 3400 ± 100 × 10⁻³ Bq m⁻² s⁻¹ for radon. Gases fluxes were measured in September 2007 during the monsoon and during the dry winter season, in December 2007 to January 2008 and in December 2008 to January 2009. Contrary to expectations, radon and its carrier gas fluxes were similar during both seasons. The integrated flux along this transect was approximately the same for radon, with a small increase of 11 ± 4% during the wet season, whereas it was reduced by 38 ± 5% during the monsoon for CO₂. In order to account for the persistence of the high gas emissions during monsoon, watering experiments have been performed at selected radon measurement points. After watering, radon flux decreased within 5 min by a factor of 2–7 depending on the point. Subsequently, it returned to its original value, firstly, by an initial partial recovery within 3–4 h, followed by a slow relaxation, lasting around 10 h and possibly superimposed by diurnal variations. Monsoon, in this part of the Himalayas, proceeds generally by brutal rainfall events separated by two- or three-day lapses. Thus, the recovery ability shown in the watering experiments accounts for the observed long-term persistence of gas discharge. This persistence is an important asset for long-term monitoring, for example to study possible temporal variations associated with stress accumulation and release.     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

Scenario study for a regional low-carbon society

Japan should undertake drastic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions by the middle of this century in order to mitigate climate change problems. Municipalities should design and execute scenarios toward a low-carbon society suited to their respective regions. This study describes long-term future visions developed for Shiga Prefecture targeting CO₂ emission reductions of 30–50% by 2030, and presents scenarios to attain these targets, which are achievable with mild economic growth. For targets over a 30% reduction, region-specific measures including land-use reform and citizen behavioral changes are necessary. Compared with other regions in Japan, Shiga should give priority to a modal shift in transport, efficiency improvements in industry, and photovoltaic energy generation.     

Recent atmospheric lead deposition recorded in an ombrotrophic peat bog of Great Hinggan Mountains, Northeast China, from Pb and Cs dating

Radioactive markers are useful in dating lead deposition patterns from industrialization in peat archive. Peat cores were collected in an ombrotrophic peat bog in the Great Hinggan Mountains in Northeast China in September 2008 and dated using ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radiometric techniques. The mosses in both cores were examined systematically for dry bulk density, water and ash content. Lead also was measured using atomic emission spectroscopy with inductively coupled plasma (ICP-AES). Both patterned peat profiles were preserved well without evident anthropogenic disturbance. Unsupported ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs decreased with the depth in both of the two sample cores. The ²¹⁰Pb chronologies were established using the constant rate of supply model (CRS) and are in good agreement with the ¹³⁷Cs time marker. Recent atmospheric ²¹⁰Pb flux in Great Hinggan Mountains peat bog was estimated to be 337 Bq m⁻² y⁻¹, which is consistent with published data for the region. Lead deposition rate in this region was also derived from these two peat cores and ranged from 24.6 to 55.8 mg m⁻² y⁻¹ with a range of Pb concentration of 14-262 μg g⁻¹. The Pb deposition patterns were consistent with increasing industrialization over the last 135-170 y, with a peak of production and coal burning in the last 50 y in Northeast China. This work presents a first estimation of atmospheric Pb deposition rate in peatlands in China and suggests an increasing trend of environmental pollution due to anthropogenic contaminants in the atmosphere. More attention should be paid to current local pollution problems, and society should take actions to seek a balance between economic development and environmental protection.     

The Social Meaning of Carbon Dioxide Emission Trading Institutional Capacity Building for a Green Market in Costa Rica

Forests offer good possibilities for the sequestration of carbon dioxide. This service can be commodified by the introduction of carbon (dioxide) credits, which can be traded on a carbon market. The premise of this paper is that the traditional economic view on the construction of these carbon markets is a too simplistic one, particularly, because it neglects the social meaning of a carbon market for developing countries. From their viewpoint as suppliers of carbon credits such a market has a broader meaning. It must be seen as a social mechanism for improving both the living conditions of local people and a more encompassing improvement of the environment than climate as such. What initially might be labelled as a carbon market might better be understood as a more encompassing 'green market'. The agreement between Costa Rica and Norway, officially known as the Reforestation Conservation Activities Implemented Jointly Project (RFCAIJP) represents a clear example of a green market. In this paper, we study the development, characteristics and benefits of that market, asking the question what lessons can be learned from this first practical experiences. More specifically we focus on the conditions that have made this type of agreement successful.     

Thermal rehabilitation of Romanian housing: a low cost assessment tool

The numerous buildings that currently require thermal rehabilitation in Romania means that substantial resources and a large number of competent people are required to carry out surveys and energy audits. However, commercial energy balance software is mostly unaffordable for those organisations involved in this process. This paper describes an energy balance programme – ENEFControl – developed to be a rapid, low cost, local tool able to assist in the choice of energy efficient solutions for buildings. To test the software, thermal and energy analyses were carried out on a 1970s built apartment block in Transylvania. Based on these analyses, three constructive scenarios were proposed for thermal rehabilitation. Compared to the performance of the analysed building, the thermal and energy performance of the retrofitted building in all three scenarios significantly improved. Since European Union accession in 2007, rapidly rising energy costs have affected the Romanian population. ENEFControl offers Romanian engineers and architects an opportunity to speed up the rehabilitation programme of buildings without the need for more expensive expertise and tools.     

Contribution of (222)Rn-bearing water to indoor radon and indoor air quality assessment in hot spring hotels of Guangdong, China

This study investigates the contribution of radon (²²²Rn)-bearing water to indoor ²²²Rn in thermal baths. The ²²²Rn concentrations in air were monitored in the bathroom and the bedroom. Particulate matter (PM, both PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) were also monitored with portable analyzers. The bathrooms were supplied with hot spring water containing 66-260 kBq m⁻³ of ²²²Rn. The results show that the spray of hot spring water from the bath spouts is the dominant mechanism by which ²²²Rn is released into the air of the bathroom, and then it diffuses into the bedroom. Average ²²²Rn level was 110-410% higher in the bedrooms and 510-1200% higher in the bathrooms compared to the corresponding average levels when there was no use of hot spring water. The indoor ²²²Rn levels were influenced by the ²²²Rn concentrations in the hot spring water and the bathing times. The average ²²²Rn transfer coefficients from water to air were 6.2 × 10⁻⁴-4.1 × 10⁻³. The 24-h average levels of CO₂ and PM₁₀ in the hotel rooms were 89% and 22% higher than the present Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) standard of China. The main particle pollutant in the hotel rooms was PM_2.5. Radon and PM₁₀ levels in some hotel rooms were at much higher concentrations than guideline levels, and thus the potential health risks to tourists and especially to the hotel workers should be of great concern, and measures should be taken to lower inhalation exposure to these air pollutants.     

国际碳减排活动中的利益博弈和中国策略的思考

博弈论能够解释许多经济活动和国际关系中出现的现象和问题。利用博弈论的相关理论。对《京都议定书》各利益集团之间的利益争斗进行了分析。指出各利益集团之间斗争的内在原因。并对中国在新一轮谈判中的策略提出了一些建议：由于《京都议定书》生效,而美国仍拒绝批准《京都议定书》。并同时抛出自己的减排方案。这必然会引起新一轮的减排博弈。面对美国等一些国家施加的压力,中国在这场新的博弈中要有所准备。提出具有建设性的建议和意见。既要维护中国和大多数发展中国家的利益。又要有助于减排。     

The influence of neighborhood traffic density on the respiratory health of elementary schoolchildren

Background

Several studies have found that living near major roadways is associated with an increase in respiratory illness but few studies have measured the volume and type of traffic.

Objective

We investigated the relation between traffic volume and respiratory health of 2328 children 9 to 11 years old in the city of Windsor, Canada.

Methods

We identified the roadways within a 200 meter radius of the child's neighborhood using the latitude and longitude of the residential postal code. Traffic exposure was defined as the sum of the annual volume of vehicles on all of these roadways. Volume was calculated using sensors to detect passing vehicles (simple traffic counts), and by counts and direction of traffic at intersections (turning movement counts). Ventilatory lung function was measured by spirometry and airway inflammation by exhaled nitric oxide (eNO).

Results

The odds ratio between an interquartile increase in truck turning movement counts and chest congestion was 1.20 (1.06-1.35). The percentage of predicted FVC declined 0.68%, (95% CI 1.32, 0.03) for an interquartile increase in simple traffic counts (33,787 vehicles daily). Among those with self-reported asthma, effect sizes were larger. Percentage predicted FEV₁ declined 1.84% (95% CI 0.07, 3.61) associated with an interquartile range increase in turning movement counts. No statistically significant change was detected between traffic measures and exhaled nitric oxide.

Conclusions

Our findings provide further support for the hypothesis that neighborhood exposure to traffic-related air pollution increases respiratory symptoms and reduces ventilatory function in children, especially those with self-reported asthma.     

Time-dependency of the Cs contamination of wild boar from a region in Southern Germany in the years 1998 to 2008

Following the Chernobyl accident, ¹³⁷Cs contamination levels of wild boar in some districts of Southern Germany are still exceeding thousands of Bq kg⁻¹. While the long term ¹³⁷Cs concentration in forest plants, mushrooms, and roe deer meat has decreased significantly, for wild boar it has remained constant during the last decade. Between 1998 and 2008, we analysed the muscle meat of 656 wild boars shot in the district (“Landkreis”) Ravensburg. The ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration showed considerable variability from less than 5 up to 8266 Bq kg⁻¹ and it followed a seasonal pattern, which is attributed to changes in dietary habits, fodder availability, meteorological conditions and specific behaviour of ¹³⁷Cs in wild boar organism. T_ag values for wild boars from the district Ravensburg varied from 0.008 to 0.062 m² kg⁻¹ during 2000–2008.