Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures, paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios. Figures in color are available at     

Soil redistribution rate and its relationship with soil organic carbon and total nitrogen using Cs technique in a cultivated complex hillslope in western Iran

The spatial pattern of soil redistribution rate was investigated using cesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) within a cultivated complex hillslope in western Iran. The relationship between soil redistribution rate and soil organic carbon and total nitrogen pattern were studied using co-regionalization analysis. Ninety-one soil cores were sampled for ¹³⁷Cs, total nitrogen, and soil organic carbon measurements. The simplified mass balance model estimated a gross erosion rate of 29.8 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and a net soil deposition rate of 21.8 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; hence, a net soil loss rate of 8 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. This magnitude of soil erosion rate is higher than the acceptable rate in semiarid regions. Co-regionalization analysis and co-dispersive coefficients among the selected variables showed that only a small fraction of the variability in total nitrogen and soil organic carbon could be explained by soil redistribution and that the remaining might be the result of different management practices by local farmers.     

Global estimates of soil carbon sequestration via livestock waste: a STELLA simulation

It has become increasingly well documented that human activities are enhancing the greenhouse effect and altering the global climate. Identifying strategies to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions on the national level are therefore critical. Fossil fuel combustion is primarily responsible for the perturbation of the global carbon cycle, although the influence of humans extends far beyond the combustion of fossil fuels. Changes in land use arising from human activities contribute substantially to atmospheric carbon dioxide; however, land use changes can act as a carbon dioxide sink as well. A soil carbon model was built using STELLA to explore how soil organic carbon sequestration (SOC) varies over a range of values for key parameters and to estimate the amount of global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste. To obtain soil carbon sequestration estimates, model simulations occurred for 11 different livestock types and with data for eight regions around the world. The model predicted that between 1980 and 1995, United States soils were responsible for the sequestration of 444–602 Tg C from livestock waste. Model simulations further predicted that during the same period, global soil carbon sequestration from livestock waste was 2,810–4,218 Tg C. Our estimates for global SOC sequestration are modest in proportion to other terrestrial carbon sinks (i.e. forest regrowth); however, livestock waste does represent a potential for long-term soil carbon gain. SOC generated from livestock waste is another example of how human activities and land use changes are altering soil processes around the world. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Simulating the effects of urbanization,afforestation and cropland abandonment on a regional carbon balance: a case study for Central Germany

The newly developed model system HILLS is used to simulate recent (1990–2000) and future (up to 2020) changes in land use and carbon sequestration over Central Germany. HILLS is unique as that it integrates the spatially explicit land-use-change model LUC-Hesse with the dynamic ecosystem model Century under a GIS platform. With this new tool, the concurrent effects of urbanization, afforestation and cropland abandonment on regional carbon sequestration are analyzed for an exemplary “Business as Usual” scenario. During the simulation period, afforestation was estimated to sequester 880 Gg C and cropland abandonment 783 Gg C. Urbanization was estimated to release 336 Gg C formerly stored in soil organic matter and thereby offsets about 20% of the C sequestered by cropland abandonment and afforestation. The case study shows that urbanization can partly counteract the benefits of carbon sequestration resulting from other land-use changes and should be investigated in other carbon balances.     

Depth profiles of radiocarbon and carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and CO2 in a forest soil

Depth profiles of the specific activities of (14)C and carbon isotopic compositions (Delta(14)C, delta(13)C) in soil organic matter and soil CO(2) in a Japanese larch forest were determined. For investigating the transport of CO(2) in soil, specific activities of (14)C, Delta(14)C and delta(13)C in the organic layer, and atmospheric CO(2) in the same forest area were also determined. The specific activity of (14)C and Delta(14)C in the soil organic matter decreased with the increase in depth of 0-60cm, while that of soil CO(2) did not vary greatly at a soil depth of 13-73cm and was more prevalent than that of atmospheric CO(2). Peaks of specific activities of (14)C appeared at the depth of 0-4cm and Delta(14)C values were positive in the depth range from 0 to 15cm. These results suggest that the present soil at a depth of 0-4cm had been produced from the mid-1950s up until 1963, and the bomb C had reached the depth of 15cm in the objective soil area. The delta(13)C in the soil organic matter increased at the depth of 0-55cm, while that of soil CO(2) collected on 8 November 2004 decreased rapidly at the depth of 0-13cm and only slightly at the depth of 53-73cm. By combining the Delta(14)C and delta(13)C of the respective components and using the Keeling plot approach it was made clear that the entering of atmospheric CO(2) showed a large contribution to soil CO(2) at the depth of 0-13cm and a negligible contribution at the depth of 53-73cm for soil air collected on 8 November 2004. Respiration of live roots was presumed to be the main source of soil CO(2) at the depth of 53-73cm on 8 November 2004.     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

Evaluation of carbon stock variation in Northern Italian soils over the last 70 years

Carbon (C) sequestration in soils is gaining increasing acceptance as a means of reducing net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere. Numerous studies on the global carbon budget suggest that terrestrial ecosystems in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere act as a large carbon sink of atmospheric CO₂. However, most of the soils of North America, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Eastern Europe lost a great part of their organic carbon pool on conversion from natural to agricultural ecosystems during the explosion of pioneer agriculture, and in Western Europe the adoption of modern agriculture after the Second World War led to a drastic reduction in soil organic carbon content. The depletion of organic matter is often indicated as one of the main effects on soil, and the storage of organic carbon in the soil is a means of improve the quality of soils and mitigating the effects of greenhouse gas emission. The soil organic carbon in an area of Northern Italy over the last 70 years has been assessed In this study. The variation of top soil organic carbon (SOC) ranged from −60.3 to +6.7%; the average reduction of SOC, caused by agriculture intensification, was 39.3%. This process was not uniform, but related to trends in land use and agriculture change. For the area studied (1,394 km²) there was an estimated release of 5 Tg CO₂-C to the atmosphere from the upper 30 cm of soil in the period 1935–1990.     

Radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope compositions of chemically fractionated soil organic matter in a temperate-zone forest

To better understand the role of soil organic matter in terrestrial carbon cycle, carbon isotope compositions in soil samples from a temperate-zone forest were measured for bulk, acid-insoluble and base-insoluble organic matter fractions separated by a chemical fractionation method. The measurements also made it possible to estimate indirectly radiocarbon ((14)C) abundances of acid- and base-soluble organic matter fractions, through a mass balance of carbon among the fractions. The depth profiles of (14)C abundances showed that (1) bomb-derived (14)C has penetrated the first 16cm mineral soil at least; (2) Delta(14)C values of acid-soluble organic matter fraction are considerably higher than those of other fractions; and (3) a significant amount of the bomb-derived (14)C has been preserved as the base-soluble organic matter around litter-mineral soil boundary. In contrast, no or little bomb-derived (14)C was observed for the base-insoluble fraction in all sampling depths, indicating that this recalcitrant fraction, accounting for approximately 15% of total carbon in this temperate-zone forest soil, plays a role as a long-term sink in the carbon cycle. These results suggest that bulk soil organic matter cannot provide a representative indicator as a source or a sink of carbon in soil, particularly on annual to decadal timescales.     

Sediment and carbon accumulation in a small tidal basin: Yuehu,Shandong Peninsula,China

A small sedimentary basin (the Yuehu lagoon), located at the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula, China, was selected to study its filling by sediment and the vertical flux of particulate organic carbon in response to natural/anthropogenic processes. Surficial and short core sediment samples were collected and analyzed to obtain data sets of grain size, organic carbon content, deposition rates and vertical fluxes of sediment and organic carbon. The analytical results show that the lagoon is covered mainly with fine-grained sediments with high deposition rate and particulate organic carbon content being found from the central part of the mud deposit. The sediment balance of the lagoon indicates high denudation rates of the catchment basin, which may be related to soil erosion in response to farming and land use pattern changes. Furthermore, preliminary analysis of the organic carbon fluxes of the Yuehu lagoon and other embayments of the region shows that these coastal systems make an important contribution to the regional shallow sea carbon burial.     

混合碳减排制度设计研究

碳减排是减缓气候变暖的必由之路,国际社会正在积极推动全球碳减排。我国已向国际社会承诺了碳减排目标,并正在大力开展相关政策的研究和制定。碳税和碳交易是多年来各国激励碳减排最主要的两大机制。这两种机制各有优缺点,它们适当的混合机制可扬长避短,创造出更优越的机制。我们认为,碳税和碳交易机制之间最大的差别在于碳税机制有较低的制度成本(包括建立者一机制所需要的人力物力的投入,以及监管成本等),在操作性上更简便;而在对市场条件和信息的变化上没有碳交易机制的灵活性强,但从另一方面,这种灵活性也恰恰是风险产生的根源之一,它增加了企业在碳排放决策方面的风险和难度;此外,碳税相对于碳交易是间接的碳减排激励机制,碳交易机制的减排效果更直接。基于这些观察,我们设计出一种混合碳减排机制,它是碳税和碳交易机制的有机结合。该混合机制包含两个部分:首先是累进制碳税制度,小企业只缴纳碳税;其次,碳交易制度,建立碳交易市场并对于大企业确定初始碳排放权,对于大企业的超排,将按照高起点的碳税税率加以惩罚。这一混合机制,既考虑了不同企业之间在碳排放权上的公平性,又考虑了机制的效率,并在保障机制效率的条件下尽可能降低企业在碳排放决策上的风险。这些正是这一混合机制的优越性所在。我们还探讨了这一混合机制在我国实施的可行性,并提出了在具体实施过程中所应注意的若干重要事项,并给出了相关的政策建议。本文的探讨可以为政府碳排放政策制定部门提供参考。     

Impact of woody encroachment on soil organic carbon and nitrogen in abandoned agricultural lands along a rainfall gradient in Italy

Land use changes represent one of the most important components of global environmental change and have a strong influence on carbon cycling. As a consequence of changes in economy during the last century, areas of marginal agriculture have been abandoned leading to secondary successions. The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands, pastures and croplands is generally thought to increase the carbon stored in these ecosystems even though there are evidences for a decrease in soil carbon stocks after land use change. In this paper, we investigate the effects of woody plant invasion on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks along a precipitation gradient (200?C2,500?mm) using original data from paired experiment in Italian Alps and Sicily and data from literature (Guo and Gifford Glob Change Biol 8(4):345?C360, 2002). We found a clear negative relationship (?0.05%?C?mm^?1) between changes in soil organic carbon and precipitation explaining 70% of the variation in soil C stocks after recolonization: dry sites gain carbon (up to +67%) while wet sites lose carbon (up to ?45%). In our data set, there seem to be two threshold values for soil carbon accumulation: the first one is 900?mm of mean annual rainfall, which separates the negative from the positive ratio values; the second one is 750?mm, which divides the positive values in two groups of sites. Most interestingly, this threshold of 750?mm corresponds exactly to a bioclimatic threshold: sites with <750?mm mean annual rainfall is classified as thermo-mediterranean sites, while the ones >750?mm are classified as mesomediterranean sites. This suggests that apart from rainfall also temperature values have an important influence on soil carbon accumulation after abandonment. Moreover, our results confirmed that the correlation between rainfall and trend in soil organic carbon may be related to nitrogen dynamics: carbon losses may occur only if there is a substantial decrease in soil nitrogen stock which occurs in wetter sites probably because of the higher leaching.     

A study on the design of a hybrid policy for carbon abatement

A necessary way to mitigate global warming is carbon reduction, which the international community is now actively promoting. China has committed a target goal for carbon reduction to the international society, and has devoted a great effort toward researching the impact of related policies. Carbon taxation and carbon trading are the two main mechanisms to advocate carbon abatement, which many countries have been using. Each of these two mechanisms possesses advantages and disadvantages, and an appropriate combination of them can make best use of their advantages while bypassing their disadvantages, creating a superior mechanism. In our opinion, the main differences between these two mechanisms are that carbon taxation has a lower institution cost (consisting of the related infrastructural investment and the regulation cost, etc), and is easier to operate, but lacks the flexibility in response to variations of market conditions. However, this flexibility is just the origin of risk, which increases the difficulty for firms in their decision of carbon abatement and is an indirect way to incentivize carbon abatement, compared to carbon trading, which has a more direct effect in carbon reduction. Based on the above observation, we present a hybrid mechanism of carbon abatement, which is an organized combination of carbon taxation and carbon trading. It consists of two parts: first, the carbon taxation, which has a progressive tax rate, second, the carbon trading. Small firms will only pay the carbon tax, while large firms, will first need to get the initial carbon emission quotas by some way, and then trade it in the carbon market if necessary. For firms with extra emissions, they will receive a punishment according to a high carbon tax rate. This hybrid policy considers the equity between different firms in carbon emission rights as well as the efficiency of the mechanism while decreasing the risk level for firms in the carbon emission decision, making it superior to the two previous policies. We also analyze the feasibility of this hybrid policy in China, address some important issues in the implementation of this hybrid policy in China and present the relevant suggestions. The discussion in this paper can serve as a reference to the government in the decision of carbon policies.     

Empirical research on construction of a measurement framework for tourism carbon emission in China

According to the logic process of carbon reduction in China which arises from the measurement to reduction, from reduction to offsetting, the measurement of carbon emission in the tourism industry was the first and key step. Based on the life cycle assessment theory and input–output analysis, this article used economic and environmental measurement technologies, The System of National Accounting (SNA), Tourism Satellite Account (TSA), System of Integrated Environment and Economic Accounting (SEEA), and so on, and built up a top-down carbon emission analysis framework for the tourism industry and estimated carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007. The finding showed that the total carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 169.78 million tons, covering 2.71% of carbon emission of all industries in China in 2007, and 2.44% of the total carbon emission in China in 2007. The direct carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 73.56 million tons, including transportation (50.14 million tons), sightseeing (1.33 million tons), lodging (4.19 million tons), accommodation (4.73 million tons), shopping (8.14 million tons), entertainment (0.67 million tons), communication (0.45 million tons), and others (3.90 million tons). The indirect carbon emission of the tourism industry in China in 2007 was 96.23 million tons, mostly contributed by coking, gas, and petroleum processing industries, transportation and warehousing industry, machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, which covered 57%.     

Analysis of transportation carbon emissions and its potential for reduction in China

The transportation industry is an essential sector for carbon emissions mitigation.This paper firstly used the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition method to establish factors decomposition model on China’s transportation carbon emission.Then,a quantitative analysis was performed to study the factors influencing China’s transportation carbon emissions from 1991 to 2008,which are identified as transportation energy efficiency,transportation structure and transportation development.The results showed that:(1)The impact of transportation development on transportation carbon emissions showed pulling function.Its contribution value to carbon emissions remained at high growth since 1991 and showed an exponential growth trend.(2)The impact of transportation structure on transportation carbon emissions showed promoting function in general,but its role in promoting carbon emissions decreased year by year.And with the continuous optimization of transportation structure,the promoting effect decreased gradually and showed the inversed"U"trend.(3)The impact of transportation energy efficiency on transportation carbon emissions showed a function of inhibition before pulling.In order to predict the potential of carbon emission reduction,three scenarios were set.Analysis of the scenarios showed that if greater intensity emission reduction measures are taken,the carbon emissions will reduce by 31.01 million tons by 2015 and by 48.81 million tons by 2020.     

义乌市流动人口对区域土地利用格局的影响研究

随着城市化和工业化进程不断加快,我国的人口流动越来越频繁。流动人口特别是流入人口持续、大规模增长对城市资源的影响方式和影响程度,是中国未来社会发展和城市化过程中急需深入研究的重要问题之一。本文以城市综合竞争力居浙江省县级市首位的义乌市为例,利用遥感技术提取了该市2007年的土地利用信息,在GIS空间统计分析功能支持下,综合分析了义乌市社会经济发展、流入人口变化特征,重点讨论了净流入人口持续增长对区域土地资源利用格局的影响。结果表明:随着社会经济的快速发展,2001-2007年,义乌市总人口增加了近68万人,其中流入人口增加了63万人;建设用地从51.33km2增加到140.36km2;耕地面积减少了126.55km2.     

Social contrasts and land use conflicts in the context of sustainable development and management needs: a case study from an estuarine area at northeastern Brazil

This paper discusses the misuses of estuaries in Northeast of Brazil and the social contrasts there found. The several kinds of impacts promoted by capitalist enterprises in one side and by traditional population, who uses estuary areas at another side, are in complete disagreement with the ethic of sustainable development. Our intention is to demonstrate how these aspects occur in the River Paraíba do Norte estuary, in the State of Paraíba. Observing the conditions of infrastructure besides the multiple ways to handle along with the extension of the estuary, we could recognize 59 focus of conflict between the incorrect use and sustainable mode. Most of the uses concern to traditional artisan fishing, slums and recreational marinas, reflecting the great social contrast between rich and poor people settled in area studied. Ecological and social implications of these conflicting uses are discussed and measures to improve the situation are suggested.     

中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。     

Decision-making for sustainable location of a cement plant in the state of Florida

Site selection is a typical strategic decision for many industries that deals with specifying the most appropriate location for a facility. In the context of sustainable development, site selection decisions need to be improved by adopting environmental, economic and social requirements. This study aims to frame sustainable location decisions by conducting a case study of siting a new cement plant in the state of Florida. As a part of the study, a wide range of technical and sustainability criteria has developed. These criteria can help decision-makers in the cement industry evaluate the selection of a location with the requirements of sustainable development. The sustainability characteristics of alternative sites in the state of Florida are evaluated based on the criteria to identify the most appropriate ones. The analytical hierarchy processand geographic information system techniques are utilized to weight the criteria and evaluate the characteristics of site candidates.