Groundwater conditions under a reconstructed prairie chronosequence

Chronosequences are useful to evaluate long-term changes in ecosystem services but assessing groundwater quality changes using this approach has rarely been done. In this study, groundwater level and quality comparisons were made in a watershed-scale reconstructed prairie chronosequence that extended back in time approximately 13 years at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge (NSNWR) near Prairie City, Iowa. Our objectives were to determine whether groundwater conditions varied significantly across the chronosequence and quantify the rate of nitrate concentration reduction when row crop fields are replaced by prairie. We installed 19 groundwater wells at upland locations selected to provide similar soil type, landscape position and slope. Water samples were collected on five occasions in 2006 and 2007 and analyzed for field parameters, anions and NO₃-N, NH₄-N and PO₄-P. Significant groundwater changes were primarily associated with groundwater levels, and groundwater nitrate and chloride concentrations. The groundwater was deeper under the older prairie plantings but fluctuated similarly among all well sites. Groundwater nitrate and chloride concentrations decreased 0.58 and 0.52 mg/l per year over the 13-year chronosequence, respectively. Results are seen to provide some guidance to land managers regarding possible nitrate concentration reductions achievable from converting cropland to perennial land cover in similar geomorphic settings.     

九龙江流域河流氮输出对土地利用模式和水文状况的响应

流域土地利用模式与水文状况影响河流氮的来源、迁移转化和输出,关乎流域健康与淡水生态系统服务的供给.本研究基于2010~2017年观测数据,采用流域模型、地理信息技术和数理统计等方法从多时空尺度探究亚热带中尺度近海流域——九龙江流域河流氮输出对流域土地利用模式和水文状况的响应机制.结果表明,NO₃^--N是九龙江流域河流水体主要的无机氮形态;农业和城市流域河流水体的氮浓度、输出负荷及其年际与季节变异性高于自然流域;丰水年各类流域河流水体的氮浓度和输出负荷差异总体上高于枯水年;相比水文状况,土地利用与氮年均浓度和输出负荷的正相关性更显著.总体而言,河流氮输出时空变化特征受流域土地利用模式和水文状况的共同作用.     

Simulation of irrigation reuse system nitrate losses and potential corn yield reductions

Places, where intensive row crop irrigated farming is practiced, are experiencing nitrate contamination of groundwater. The farmers are increasingly becoming aware of high nitrate concentrations in the groundwater. As a result, farmers have started to test their groundwater for nitrate concentrations and take account of this concentration in their crop nitrogen budget. If a farmer utilizes an unlined reuse pit and groundwater nitrate concentration to base his nitrogen fertilizer budget on, he may underestimate his nitrogen fertilizer requirement for a given yield goal because of nitrate loss out of the reuse pit. The objective of this study was to compute: (1) nitrate loss from the irrigation reuse pit during an irrigation season, 1 July to 31 August; and (2) the potential corn yield reduction for a field receiving irrigation water from the reuse pit. A computer program based on the Green–Ampt equation was written to simulate these losses and yield reductions. Use of the Green–Ampt infiltration equation allows for a two-layer reuse pit, which may have a clay liner on top of the native soil material. To conceptualize the magnitude of water loss volumes and mass of nitrate leached, the reuse pit was assumed to serve a 32.4-hectare field. The results show that lining the pit with clay can significantly reduce nitrate leaching from a reuse pit and cut yield losses. The results also show the importance of a lined reuse pit in sandy sub-soils. Budgeting for crop nitrogen needs assuming irrigation water from the pit with a substantial nitrate concentration could result in crop nitrogen stress. If ponding were also considered in the reuse pit, it would increase the nitrate and yield losses from the reuse pit.     

基于集成分析的环渤海地区河流硝酸盐污染解析

近几十年全球人口剧增,粮食生产及燃料消耗都增加了地表水中的氮负荷,而地表水是连接大陆氮库和海洋氮库的重要通道,地表水中的硝酸盐的增加将直接导致河口及沿海硝酸盐浓度的增加,因此研究近海河流的氮污染情况、确定影响因素将会为近海营养物质的控制及水环境管理提供重要信息.以环渤海地区的入海河流为主要研究对象,通过收集公开数据建立环渤海地表水硝酸盐数据库集成分析,研究入海河流的水体硝酸盐的时空污染特征及其与各影响因素之间的关系.结果表明,环渤海区域地表水中硝酸盐浓度的变化范围在0.0~76.4 mg·L~(-1),与溶解氧、总氮、总磷和电导率有显著的相关关系(p=0.01).在空间变化方面,黄河下游及浑太河上游流域硝酸盐污染较为严重.在除去来自城市污废水排放的人工河道带来的硝酸盐浓度异常值后,丰水期(平均浓度4.55 mg·L~(-1))与平水期(平均浓度5.39 mg·L~(-1))的硝酸盐浓度的平均水平较枯水期(平均浓度4.03 mg·L~(-1))更高,且浓度的变化范围(丰水期:0.00~34.90 mg·L~(-1);平水期:0.00~31.00 mg·L~(-1))亦大于枯水期(0.00~25.64 mg·L~(-1)).影响因素方面,硝酸盐浓度与降水量有显著相关性(r=0.122,p=0.01).土地利用相关性研究表明耕地与建设用地是硝酸盐的主要来源,林地和草地对硝酸盐污染有改善作用.硝酸盐的入海通量约为33.4×10~4t·a-1.     

世界主要国家城市人均用地研究及其对我国的启示

城市人均用地作为城市规划和土地利用规划的重要依据,一直受到学者和规划师的广泛重视。1991年我国颁布了人均建设用地标准,之后,这个标准成为我国核准各级城市规划的一个主要指标。经过近20 a的快速发展,这个指标是否还能反映我国城市用地的真实需求?为此,研究选择了世界上人口规模最大的80个国家的城市人均用地作为研究对象,分析了各国人均用地的差异,并用截面数据对城市用地的差异进行了分析;在此基础上,对我国城市用地的需求水平进行了估算。结果显示:不同国家城市人均用地差别很大;一个国家城市人均用地水平的高低和该国人均土地资源的丰富程度、耕地面积占土地总面积的比重及国家经济发展水平(人均GDP)有着明显的正相关;基于本文的数据,运用经验模型,研究认为2020年我国城市人均用地约为165 m2/人。     

中国农产品贸易的虚拟土地资源量化研究

虚拟资源对于揭示农产品贸易隐含的资源流动及效应具有重要意义。随着我国农产品贸易量和贸易格局的变化,定量核算我国农产品贸易隐含的土地资源量变化,可以从资源利用的角度评价我国农产品贸易的合理性,为相关贸易政策的制定提供理论依据。研究重点探讨了农产品及加工制品的虚拟土地资源量的核算方法,分别从生产者角度和消费者角度对1986—2009年我国农作物产品及其加工制品贸易的虚拟土地资源量进行了核算。计算结果表明,我国农作物产品隐含的虚拟土地资源量由1986年的净出口442.6×10⁴ hm²,转变为2009年的净进口2 889.0×10⁴ hm²,假设进口农产品在本国生产的情况下,2009年我国所需的虚拟土地资源量为3 817.5×10⁴ hm²。从虚拟土地资源进口结构和空间分布来看,我国虚拟土地资源净进口主要作物类别由谷物转变为油料作物,主要进口来源国由美国、加拿大、澳大利亚转变为美国、巴西、阿根廷。     

环太湖主要河流氮素组成特征及来源

以2012年太湖20条主要环湖河流中氮素的逐月调查数据为依据,探讨了河水中氮素的含量、形态组成和季节性分布规律,旨在为进一步实施入湖河流小流域的污染治理提供依据. 结果表明,太湖20条环湖河流的ρ(TN)平均值为2.53~6.31 mg/L,鉴于太湖水体中ρ(TN)多年来居高难下,水质类别主要由ρ(TN)决定,因此按ρ(TN)年均值,将环湖20条河流分为重度、中度和轻度污染3类. DIN(溶解态无机氮)是氮素的主要存在形式,ρ(DIN)平均占ρ(TN)的72%以上. 其中,重度和中度污染河流中ρ(NH₃-N)和ρ(NO₃--N)各占ρ(DIN)的约50%,轻度污染河流则以NO₃--N为主,ρ(NO₃--N)占ρ(DIN)的60%以上. 除个别河流外,重度和中度污染河流水体中非汛期(11月—翌年4月)ρ(TN)、ρ(NH₃-N)和ρ(NO₃--N)普遍高于汛期(5—10月),并且汛期和非汛期差异显著. 这可能与非汛期的水温较低并且污水处理厂及湿地等生态系统的氮素去除率低于汛期有关,此外,也说明点源污染占主要地位;轻度污染河流中ρ(NH₃-N)在汛期和非汛期差异不显著,说明点源和非点源负荷相当. 重度和中度污染河流应重点针对点源污染开展治理;轻度污染河流应将点源、面源污染协同治理,以利于进一步改善水质.      

黄土塬区土地利用变化对硝态氮累积和淋溶的影响

为了分析黄土塬区土地利用变化对土壤中NO₃--N迁移规律的影响,在陕西长武黄土塬区沿东西方向设置6个样地,每个样地内均选择耕地、由耕地转变来的果龄10 a和20 a左右的苹果园(下称耕地、10 a果园和20 a果园)3种土地利用方式采集土壤样品,分析土地利用变化对NO₃--N迁移的影响,并初步评估其对地下水污染的潜在风险. 结果表明:不同土地利用方式下土壤中NO₃--N均出现累积现象,达到累积峰时的土层深度表现为果园＞耕地,NO₃--N最大累积量表现为20 a果园＞10 a果园＞耕地. 耕地、10 a果园和20 a果园土壤w(NO₃--N)平均稳定深度分别为300、400和500 cm,平均稳定值分别为2.4、2.5和2.6 mg/kg. 地下水中ρ(NO₃-)为15.3 mg/L,而3种土地利用方式下土壤中ρ(可移动态NO₃-)分别为14.2、26.2和26.3 mg/L,可见,与耕地相比,果园土壤中NO₃--N淋溶至地下水的风险更大. 但由于土地利用变化导致的土壤水分运动和地下水补给存在差异,各土地利用方式对地下水中NO₃--N的贡献率尚需进一步量化.      

Human population and the global environment

A stable ecosystem resists large, rapid changes in the sizes of its constituent populations which upset the orderly flow of energy and nutrients. An early example of such alteration was the conversion to desert of the rich Tigris and Euphrates valleys through erosion and salt accumulation resulting from faulty irrigation practices that caused the downfall of the great Mesopotamian civilization. Overgrazing and poor cultivation practices have contributed over the millennia to the expansion of the Sahara Desert. Attempts to cultivate too intensively the fragile soil of tropical rainforest areas are suspected of being in part responsible for the collapse of the Mayan civilization. The 19th century Irish potato famine because of heavy reliance of the Irish population on a single, highly productive crop led to 1.5 million deaths when the potato monoculture, a simple agricultural ecosystem, fell victim to a fungus. Modern agriculture's desire to maximize yields per acre are worrisome ecologically (increases in the use of pesticides and inorganic fertilizers). The liabilities include that as larger land areas are farmed the tracts available for reservoirs of species diversity and for natural ecosystems become smaller. Pressure to expand agriculture to steep hillsides unsuitable for cultivation has led to serious erosion in Indonesia, and increasing slash-and-burn practices are destroying tropical forests in the Philippines. The enormous expansion of wheat or rice monoculture has increased the probability of epidemic crop failure from insects or disease. 37% of the world's population is under 15 years of age which means that population will grow for 50-70 years more before leveling off. Despite a declining growth rate population would still increase 30% or more during the transition to stability. Zero global population growth is required for a prosperous and environmentally sustainable civilization.     

土地利用对太湖入流河道营养盐的影响

土地利用类型是影响面源营养盐负荷的重要因素.为定量揭示不同土地类型对太湖流域入湖河流营养盐浓度的影响,本文以太湖西岸乌溪港流域为例,基于流域土地利用类型的遥感解译,结合河道水质监测数据,分析了流域土地利用对太湖入流河道营养盐浓度的影响.结果发现,河道水质与土地利用类型联系紧密：旱地农田和建筑用地占比对河道氮、磷、有机碳及浮游植物叶绿素a等营养盐相关水质指标影响巨大,果园用地占比也与河道营养盐浓度正相关,而林地占比则与营养盐浓度负相关;流域水域的利用情况及其面积占比也显著影响河道营养盐：河流及水库等的水体面积占比与河道溶解性总氮及硝态氮浓度负相关,自然坑塘及鱼塘等水域面积占比则与河道硝态氮和氨氮浓度负相关,而河流及鱼塘面积占比与河道溶解性总磷、溶解性有机碳和高锰酸盐指数等浓度呈正相关,自然坑塘面积占比与河道颗粒态磷和浮游植物叶绿素a浓度呈正相关.土地利用类型对河道水质的影响程度还受其距河远近的影响.上述结果表明在太湖等平原河网地区营养盐的面源污染控制中应当将土地与湿地的利用管控作为重点实施管理,将湿地水域的自净能力提升纳入流域营养盐控制方案,并特别重视下游河道两岸旱地及建筑用地的面源污染削减.     

三峡小流域水体硝态氮含量变化特征及其影响因素研究

为了解三峡地区典型农业流域水体水质状况以及对流域各影响因素的响应,在2004年和2005年间,对三峡库区内长江一级支流曲溪的水体硝态氮含量进行了连续监测,利用划分子流域的方法,分析了该流域异质景观条件下溪流水硝态氮含量的变化特征.结果表明,该流域溪流水体中硝态氮含量变化在0.4～14.6 mg·L-1之间,且其含量冬季＞秋季＞夏季＞春季,年际之间也存在着一定的差异,随着农业活动对环境影响的日益加剧水体中硝态氮含量还有加大的趋势;在该流域内水体硝态氮含量与不同类型的土地利用之间存在不同程度的相关性;而且流域内地质水文特征等环境因素对水体硝态氮含量有一定的影响,说明在流域尺度上水体硝态氮含量对影响因素的响应是明显的.     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years (1990-2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin, China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output, surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from 1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields. Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by 16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010, partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk, decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.     

20年来密云水库主要入库河流总氮变化趋势和影响因素

密云水库是北京市最主要的饮用水源地,但近年来,密云水库遭遇了氮类污染物浓度逐渐增加的问题.因此,本文分析了密云水库主要入库河流潮河和白河在1990—2010年的总氮变化趋势和影响因素.结果表明,1990—2010年期间,潮河、白河的总氮浓度呈明显增加的趋势,且TN浓度随流量的增加呈减小趋势,经流量校正后,潮河在非汛期和白河的TN浓度显著增加,2000年后汛期潮河的TN浓度减小;总氮主要以硝态氮存在,与总硬度的相关系数最大;20年来,区域人类活动逐渐增强,水利水保措施并未改变总氮浓度增加的趋势.农业非点源污染物和畜禽养殖污染物的增加是入库河流总氮增加的主要原因,径流量减少又放大了这一效应,污染物主要通过淋溶作用补给到地下水,再补给到河流水体中.研究表明,要有效控制河流的总氮浓度,应把重点放在减小地下水的过度利用和控制区域内的非点源污染上.     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years (1990–2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin,China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output, surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from 1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields. Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by 16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010, partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk, decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.     

Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S.

This paper examines possible adaptations to climate change in terms of pasture and crop land use and stocking rate in the United States (U.S.). Using Agricultural Census and climate data in a statistical model, we find that as temperature and precipitation increases agricultural commodity producers respond by reducing crop land and increasing pasture land. In addition, cattle stocking rate decreases as the summer Temperature-humidity Index (THI) increases and summer precipitation decreases. Using the statistical model with climate data from four General Circulation Models (GCMs), we project that land use shifts from cropping to grazing and the stocking rate declines, and these adaptations are more pronounced in the central and the southeast regions of the U.S. Controlling for other farm production variables, crop land decreases by 6 % and pasture land increases by 33 % from the baseline. Correspondingly, the associated economic impact due to adaptation is around ?14 and 29 million dollars to crop producers and pasture producers by the end of this century, respectively. The national and regional results have implications for farm programs and subsidy policies.     

Changes in nitrogen budget and potential risk to the environment over 20 years(1990–2010) in the agroecosystems of the Haihe Basin,China

The nitrogen balance can serve as an indicator of the risk to the environment of nitrogen loss from agricultural land. To investigate the temporal and spatial changes in agricultural nitrogen application and its potential threat to the environment of the Haihe Basin in China, we used a database of county-level agricultural statistics to calculate agricultural nitrogen input, output,surplus intensity, and use efficiency. Chemical fertilizer nitrogen input increased by 51.7% from1990 to 2000 and by 37.2% from 2000 to 2010, concomitant with increasing crop yields.Simultaneously, the nitrogen surplus intensity increased by 53.5% from 1990 to 2000 and by16.5% from 2000 to 2010, presenting a continuously increased environmental risk. Nitrogen use efficiency decreased from 0.46 in 1990 to 0.42 in 2000 and remained constant at 0.42 in 2010,partly due to fertilizer composition and type improvement. This level indicates that more than half of nitrogen inputs are lost in agroecosystems. Our results suggest that although the improvement in fertilizer composition and types has partially offset the decrease in nitrogen use efficiency, the environmental risk has still increased gradually over the past 20 years, along with the increase in crop yields and nitrogen application. It is important to achieve a better nitrogen balance through more effective management to significantly reduce the environmental risk,decrease nitrogen surplus intensity, and increase nitrogen use efficiency without sacrificing crop yields.     

Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively.     

滇池流域硝酸盐污染的氮氧同位素示踪

滇池流域硝酸盐污染严重,厘清其来源对硝酸盐污染治理至关重要。本研究在滇池流域收集河水、湖水、井水、雨水样品,分析了无机氮浓度和硝酸根氮、氧同位素比值。总体上,硝酸盐浓度变化范围较大,从低于检测限到高达13.44mg-N/L,显示流域硝酸盐污染存在较大的空间差异。最高浓度出现在流域南部农田区的井水中,井水样品的氮、氧同位素数据大部分落在化学肥料和大气干湿沉降区,表明农业面源和大气输入对流域浅层地下水产生了污染,污染的浅层地下水又是湖泊水体的一个潜在污染源。流域内河流硝酸盐浓度变化范围较大,总体污染程度高于滇池湖泊水体,氮、氧同位素组成表明大部分河流中硝酸盐来自生活污水和人畜粪便。滇池水体的硝酸盐氮、氧同位素组成和河流的相似,说明人畜粪便和生活污水是主要来源。湖泊水体硝酸盐浓度从南向北有逐渐增加的趋势,这与滇池北部紧邻城区(生活污水)、流域南部主要为农田区(面源污染)的空间格局是一致的。总体上,滇池水体的硝酸盐主要来自城市生活污水,农业面源和大气输入。通过地下水途经进入湖泊主要发生在流域南部地区,具体的贡献份额还需要进一步的计算。     

流域氮素主要输出途径及变化特征

流域农业面源输出氮素是湖泊流域水体中氮的主要来源之一,对水环境安全造成了极大威胁.不同流域间地形、水文、植被覆盖等因子的差异及气象条件的变化,造成氮的输出途径具有流域异质性及时间变化特征.本研究以高原湖泊典型流域——凤羽河流域为例,基于2011-06~2013-05期间径流水量、水质高频监测数据,应用基流分割的方法,通过分析流域产流与氮素输出途径的季节性变化,探讨了流域氮素输出的主要途径及变化特征.结果表明,基流是高原湖泊流域水量输出的主要形式和总氮输出的主要途径;基流输出水量及总氮负荷分别占流域总输出水量的80. 0%和流域总氮输负荷的71. 1%;降雨显著增加了流域水量和总氮负荷的输出量,同时改变了总氮的输出途径;降雨导致地表径流量增加,进而使流域输出水量和总氮输出负荷中地表径流途径的比重升高;当地表径流占流域输出水量的比重约达40%以上时,流域总氮输出的主要途径由基流转变为地表径流;监测周期内,地表径流输出的总氮负荷占流域总输出负荷的比重最高达65. 6%.     

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring,modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented.