广义回归神经网络预测天津城市用水量

通过对1991—1994年、1996～1999年、2001～2004年、2006—2007年天津城市年用水量相关的历史数据进行分析,利用广义回归神经网络进行训练和拟合,用1995年、2000年、2005年的实际数据进行模型检验,结果证明了广义回归神经网络用于城市年用水量预测的有效性和可行性。     

1961—2015年西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型及其生产潜力分析

了解气候变化背景下农作物气候年型以及不同气候年型下作物的生产潜力,对实现农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于1961—2015年西南区域单季稻种植区316个气象台站的逐日气象资料和单季稻生产资料,利用异常度概念分析了单季稻生长季的10种气候年型,解析了不同气候年型下单季稻的气候生产潜力,并分析气候变化对单季稻生长季气候年型及生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）近55年来西南区域单季稻生长季正常年型发生频次最高,平均21.5次,其次是少雨年型和多雨年型。从空间分布来看,正常年型多出现在云南南部和西北部、四川攀西和四川盆地南部的部分地区,少雨和多雨年型多出现在四川盆地大部和其他省市的部分地区,高温年型多出现在四川攀西地区、云南和贵州的个别地区,低温和寡照年型的空间差异不明显。（2）1961—2015年,西南区域单季稻气候生产潜力平均为7065.6 kg/hm²。与正常年相比,多雨年型气候生产潜力偏高超过10%,少雨年型偏低超过14%,降水是影响单季稻气候生产潜力的最主要因子。（3）气候变暖对西南区域单季稻生长季气候年型变化的影响最为显著。与1961—1990年相比,1991—2015年暖年增加,冷年减少。近55年来西南各省市单季稻气候生产潜力均呈下降趋势,1990年代以来暖年的增加有利于气候生产潜力的提高,而少雨和寡照年的增加是气候生产潜力总体下降的主要原因。     

潘文石 不断寻找生存的曙光

从1980年到1995年,潘文石把15年的光阴给了大熊猫;从1996年到2004年,一晃,在白头叶猴的研究上,他也花费了9年的心血;从2004年至今,他将6年的时间给了白海豚……他生命中的大半时光都与野外科考有关。     

1992-2018年合肥市酸雨变化特征及突变分析

为进一步掌握合肥市酸雨的变化情况,文章利用合肥气象站1992-2018年的酸雨监测资料和常规气象资料,分析了27年来合肥市酸雨的年变化特征,并利用曼-肯德尔法对年降水pH值等要素进行突变检验。结果表明:1992年以来,合肥市年降水pH值一直处于酸雨量级,呈先降后升的趋势,最低值出现在2003年;年酸雨出现频率与降水pH值变化趋势相反,最小值出现在1998年,最高值出现在2012年。突变检验也显示年降水p H值和酸雨出现频率分别在2008-2014年、2006-2014年达到趋势变化显著水平,其中,年降水pH值在2000年发生突变,酸雨出现频率的突变则滞后一年;大气降水电导率和有效降水量年际变化较平稳。     

佛山:强力推进大环保、大监管、大治理

<正>2015年是佛山市的"环保法治年",是佛山完成"十二五"规划环保目标任务的冲刺年、环保责任的落实年、环境质量的提升年,全市将狠抓环保责任落实、提升依法治理能力。佛山在2014年实施史上最严"环保执法年"之后,乘势追击,2015年进一步提出了"环保法治年",而且继去年史无前例地一年召开两次全市环保工作会议后,2015年开年后的首场全市性综合会议便选择聚焦环保。会上,佛山市代市长鲁毅与各区政府和市直部门代表签订了2015     

辽宁省近50年降水量的突变特征及变化趋势分析

首先采用Pettitt方法对辽宁省21个气象站1958年一2008年51年的降水量序列进行突变分析,结果显示54476和54486两测站的年降水量序列分别在1996年和1998年存在显著的突变且通过了显著性水平检验,其它测站的降水量序列均未检测出显著的突变年份。根据累积距平曲线分析辽宁省51年的年均降水量在时间尺度上大致分为三个阶段：1958年一1975年为降水量增加阶段,1975年一1996年为降水量稳定阶段,1996年一2008为降水量减少阶段。最后应用Morlet小波分析对辽宁省年均降水量进行周期分析,结果表明降水在大尺度时间上存在约24年的周期震荡,在小尺度时间上存在约9年的周期震荡。     

江苏省交通运输业碳排放预测及减排情景分析研究

根据江苏省2005年-2012年交通运输业的碳排放量和碳排放强度,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了2013年-2025年的碳排放,并结合江苏省省情设定了两种碳减排情景.研究表明:2005年-2012年江苏省交通运输业碳排放量一直呈增长趋势;2006 年-2009年碳排放强度一直上升,而2009年-2012年则呈下降趋势.GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示2013年-2025年江苏省交通碳排放量和碳排放强度一直处于上升的状态.而情景分析得出基准情景和低碳情景下的2015年和2025年交通运输业碳排放量都将会大幅减少.     

树轮记录的吕梁山北部过去175年来帕尔默干旱指数变化

利用采自吕梁山北部地区的油松样本,建立了过去175年来的树轮宽度年表。相关分析表明:标准年表(STD)与当年5—6月的帕尔默干旱指数(Palmer drought severity index,PDSI)相关性最好,相关系数为0.687(n=50,p0.001)。因此,采用树轮宽度标准年表(STD)序列重建了1829—2003年5—6月的PDSI序列,重建方程的方差解释量达到47.16%。重建序列发现9个偏湿时段,分别为1833—1836年、1845—1851年、1857—1863年、1869—1874年、1882—1887年、1896—1899年、1932—1939年、 1949—1965年、 1975—1985年;10个偏干时段,分别为1829—1832年、1837—1844年、1852—1856年、1864—1868年、1875—1881年、1888—1895年、1900—1931年、1940—1948年、1966—1974年、1986—2003年。同时发现20世纪20年代的严重干旱事件以及20世纪末气候干旱化加重的趋势。空间相关结果显示:重建的PDSI代表了周边大范围的干旱变化,同时,与基于历史文献的干湿指数(DWI)显著相关(p0.002),说明无论是空间还是时间尺度上,重建结果都可以代表吕梁山周边大范围的干旱变化。此外,重建序列与不同定义的东亚夏季风指数都显著相关(p0.02),说明东亚夏季风对研究区的干湿变化具有调制作用。多窗谱分析表明重建序列存在2—7年、12年、13.6年、19.2年、21.6年、26.1年的周期变化,这些周期变化可能与ENSO、太阳活动有关。     

2009年度由国十大环境新闻

2009年对中国来说，是环境问题突现多发的一年、是环保力度不断加大的一年、是环保市场急剧扩展的一年、是民众参与环保决策意识进一步提高的一年、是中国积极应对气候环保问题的一年。     

邢台县打响节能减排攻坚战

邢台县被列为省节能减排“双三十”重点县。为此，该县制定三项措施作为今年工作开局的强化措施，力保全县任务完成。一是立承诺，定目标。按照“一年重点突破，两年基本达标，三年超标完成”的工作思路，到2009年，完成省下达的三年考核目标，到2010年利用两年时间完成三年目标的基础上，再创新高，力争主要污染物化学需氧量、二氧化硫分别削减230吨和489吨，较2005年下降27％。     

Mini-review on river eutrophication and bottom improvement techniques,with special emphasis on the Nakdong River

Water quality in rivers is vital to humans and to maintenance of biotic and ecological integrity. During the Four Major Rivers restoration of South Korea, remarkable attempts have been made to decrease external nutrient loads and moveable weirs were designed to discharge silt that may deposit in pools. However, recently eutrophication of the Nakdong River, which was limited to the lower reaches, is seen to be spreading upstream. The reduction of external nutrient loads to rivers is a long-term goal that is unlikely to lead to reductions in algal blooms for many years because of the time required to implement effective land management strategies. It would therefore be desirable to implement complementary strategies. Regulating the amount of water released is effective at preventing algae blooms in weir pools; so, the relationship between discharge, stratification and bloom formation should be understood in this regard. However, pollutants are likely to accumulate in the riverbed upstream from release points. Thus, to control phosphorus levels, total phosphorus density should be lowered by applying in-river techniques as well. As many ecosystem properties are controlled by multiple processes, simultaneous river bottom improvement techniques, such as combined dissolved oxygen supply and nutrient inactivation, are likely to be effective. The purpose of this review is to present a series of technological approaches that can be used to improve the river bottom area and hence sediment nutrient release, and to illustrate the application of these techniques to the Nakdong River.     

Mini-review on river eutrophication and bottom improvement techniques, with special emphasis on the Nakdong River

Water quality in rivers is vital to humans and to maintenance of biotic and ecological integrity.During the Four Major Rivers restoration of South Korea, remarkable attempts have been made to decrease external nutrient loads and moveable weirs were designed to discharge silt that may deposit in pools. However, recently eutrophication of the Nakdong River, which was limited to the lower reaches, is seen to be spreading upstream. The reduction of external nutrient loads to rivers is a long-term goal that is unlikely to lead to reductions in algal blooms for many years because of the time required to implement effective land management strategies. It would therefore be desirable to implement complementary strategies. Regulating the amount of water released is effective at preventing algae blooms in weir pools; so, the relationship between discharge, stratification and bloom formation should be understood in this regard. However, pollutants are likely to accumulate in the riverbed upstream from release points. Thus, to control phosphorus levels, total phosphorus density should be lowered by applying in-river techniques as well. As many ecosystem properties are controlled by multiple processes, simultaneous river bottom improvement techniques, such as combined dissolved oxygen supply and nutrient inactivation, are likely to be effective. The purpose of this review is to present a series of technological approaches that can be used to improve the river bottom area and hence sediment nutrient release, and to illustrate the application of these techniques to the Nakdong River.     

The recycling cycle of materials as a design project tool

Currently, a large number of companies consider recycling of materials as an opportunity to maximize profits and to reduce the environmental impact generated by these materials after they are disposed. However, there is also a strong constraint on the use of recycled materials mainly due to the lack of technical/scientific information, which would relate their physical properties to their recycling cycle. This information should be used in the initial phase of the product design to serve as reference for the simulation of a project to point out the physical properties obtained from recycling the Projected material (Pm). Thus, it would be possible to foresee some recycling strategy to keep the good characteristics of recycled materials by encouraging their use, regardless of the product to be designed.Therefore, the Recycling Cycle of Materials (RCM) is a tool that provides scientific/technical support in the selection of materials. It uses the information related to the physical properties of the Pm as a parameter for product design after five recycling cycles. For the case study, this tool has been applied to obtain the basic material of ABS/PC blend. Subsequently, this blend was evaluated using DSC, FTIR, traction and impact methods to obtain delimiting data for the definition of the mechanical properties resulting from the application of RCM.     

The 10-tenets of adaptive management and sustainability: An holistic framework for understanding and managing the socio-ecological system

The three basic principles of sustainable development, relating to ecology, economy and society, have long been embedded within national and international strategies. In recent years we have augmented these principles by a further seven considerations giving rise to the so-called 10-tenets of sustainable management. Whilst theoretically appealing, discussion of the tenets to date has been largely generic and qualitative and, until the present paper, there has been no formal and quantitative application of these tenets to an actual example. To promote the concept of successful and sustainable environmental management there is the need to develop a robust and practical framework to accommodate value judgements relating to each of the tenets. Although, as originally presented, the tenets relate specifically to management measures, they may also be applied directly to a specific development or activity. This paper examines the application of the tenets in both of these contexts, and considers their incorporation into an assessment tool to help visualise and quantify issues of sustainability.     

Framing the private land conservation conversation: Strategic framing of the benefits of conservation participation could increase landholder engagement

How conservation messages are framed will impact the success of our efforts to engage people in conservation action. This is highly relevant in the private land conservation (PLC) sector given the low participation rates of landholders. Using a case study of PLC schemes targeted at Australian landholders, we present the first systematic analysis of communication strategies used by organisations and government departments delivering those schemes to engage the public. We develop a novel approach for analysing the framing of conservation messages that codes the stated benefits of schemes according to value orientation. We categorised the benefits as flowing to either the landholder, to society, or to the environment, corresponding to the egoistic, altruistic and biospheric value orientations that have been shown to influence human behaviour. We find that messages are biased towards environmental benefits. Surprisingly, this is the case even for market-based schemes that have the explicit objective of appealing to production-focussed landholders and those who are not already involved in conservation. The risk is that PLC schemes framed in this way will fail to engage more egoistically oriented landholders and are only likely to appeal to those likely to already be conservation-minded. By understanding the frame in which PLC benefits are communicated, we can begin to understand the types of people who may be engaged by these messages, and who may not be. Results suggest that the framing of the communications for many schemes could be broadened to appeal to a more diverse group (and thus ultimately to a larger group) of landholders.     

An evaluation of adaptation options for climate change impacts on agriculture in Kazakhstan

Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.     

环境噪声达标区建设中应注意的几个问题

结合鞍山市在创建国家环保模范城市工作过程中建设环境噪声达标区的工作实际,针对鞍山市区(建成区)的噪声达标区的划分、监测布点、监测方法和验收等创建过程中遇到的具体问题进行了分析,提出了相应的解决方法,并就创建过程中的不成功经验进行了总结.鞍山市的噪声达标区建设基本上符合国家和省关于环境噪声达标区的技术要求,虽然达标区的划分、现状调查、各种噪声数据监测和分析、噪声污染源的治理以及达标区的验收和噪声源的抽测等工作较为复杂,但仍可以为其他城市噪声达标区的创建提供借鉴.     

中国人不会使世界挨饿

本文通过对中国国土资源食物生产潜力的比较全面、系统的分析,认为中国只要举国上下支持、保护和发展农业,强化国家对农业的主导作用,建立食物安全保障体系,认真执行＂米袋子＂省长负责制,加大对农业特别是对科技的投入力度,面向国土,开发国土,充分、合理利用国土,并相应地建立起具有中国特色的包括耕地、草地、林地、海洋和野生生物资源的食物来源的五大生产体系、符合中国国情的、具有浓厚东方色彩的消费体系、节粮体系以及推行人口计划控制政策,虽农业发展具有艰巨性,但前景依然是光明的。跨越新世纪,中国人定能养活中国人,中国人不会使世界挨饿。     

环境与生态系统资本价值评估的若干问题

近年来,环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的概念界定、系统价值认定及评价模式选择等之类的问题成为相关研究中有争议的议题.鉴于此,对环境与生态系统资本价值评估中的一些问题进行了探讨.①在肯定环境与生态系统资本价值评估意义的基础上,指出对于环境与生态系统的整体价值要予以充分估价;②针对目前评价模式单一的现状,提出了整合类型与区域评估的新模式;③在分析了环境与生态系统的资本价值在空间上流动之后,认为应对价值的积累和流动过程给予充分关注;最后,提出了几条具体的建议.     

建筑施工场界噪声监测存在的问题及对策

文章对目前建筑施工场界噪声监测中存在的影响监测结果的代表性问题进行了系统分析,并对这些问题提出了要坚持客观、公正的原则,根据施工单位的排污申报表掌握工程情况,配合环境管理和监察人员选准监测时机,适当增加监测点位作好监测记录,适当增加监测次数,提高监测结果的透明度等对策和建议.