Population viability analysis as a tool in wildlife conservation policy: With reference to Australia

Wildlife conservation policy for endangered species restoration follows a six-phase process. Population viability analysis (PVA) can play a major contributing role in four of these. PVA, as discussed here, is a technique where extinction vulnerabilities of small populations are estimated using computer simulation modeling. The benefits and limitations of using PVA in wildlife decision and policy processes are reviewed based on our direct experience. PVA permits decision makers to set time frames for management, estimate the required magnitude of restoration efforts, identify quantitative targets for species recovery, and select, implement, monitor, and evaluate management strategies. PVA is of greatest value for rare species policy and management. However, a limitation of PVA simulation models is that they are constrained by the amount of biological data available, and such data are difficult to obtain from small populations that are at immediate risk of extinction. These problems may be overcome with improved models and more data. Our experience shows benefits of PVA far outweigh its limitations, and applications of the approach are most useful when integrated with decision analysis and completed within an adaptive management philosophy. PVAs have been carried out for 14 Victorian species and less used elsewhere in Australia. Management and recovery plans are developed from these PVAs. We recommend that PVA be used to guide research programs, develop conservation strategies, and inform decision and policy making for both endangered and nonendangered species because it can significantly improve many aspects of natural resource policy and management.     

Value for Money: Protecting Endangered Species on Danish Heathland

Biodiversity policies in the European Union (EU) are mainly implemented through the Birds and Habitats Directives as well as the establishment of Natura 2000, a network of protected areas throughout the EU. Considerable resources must be allocated for fulfilling the Directives and the question of optimal allocation is as important as it is difficult. In general, economic evaluations of conservation targets at most consider the costs and seldom the welfare economic benefits. In the present study, we use welfare economic benefit estimates concerning the willingness-to-pay for preserving endangered species and for the aggregate area of heathland preserved in Denmark. Similarly, we obtain estimates of the welfare economic cost of habitat restoration and maintenance. Combining these welfare economic measures with expected species coverage, we are able to estimate the potential welfare economic contribution of a conservation network. We compare three simple nonprobabilistic strategies likely to be used in day-to-day policy implementation: i) a maximum selected area strategy, ii) a hotspot selection strategy, and iii) a minimizing cost strategy, and two more advanced and informed probabilistic strategies: i) a maximum expected coverage strategy and ii) a strategy for maximum expected welfare economic gain. We show that the welfare economic performance of the strategies differ considerably. The comparison between the expected coverage and expected welfare shows that for the case considered, one may identify an optimal protection level above which additional coverage only comes at increasing welfare economic loss.     

Price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty: an info-gap robust satisficing perspective

Conventional wisdom among environmental economists is that the relative slopes of the marginal social benefit and marginal social cost functions determine whether a price-based or quantity-based environmental regulation leads to higher expected social welfare. We revisit the choice between price-based vs. quantity-based environmental regulation under Knightian uncertainty; that is, when uncertainty cannot be modeled with known moments of probability distributions. Under these circumstances, the policy objective cannot be to maximize the expected net benefits of emissions control. Instead, we evaluate an emissions tax and an aggregate abatement standard in terms of maximizing the range of uncertainty under which the welfare loss from error in the estimates of the marginal benefits and costs of emissions control can be limited. The main result of our work is that the same criterion involving the relative slopes of the marginal benefit and cost functions determines whether price-based or quantity-based control is more robust to unstructured uncertainty. Hence, not only does the relative slopes criterion lead to the policy that maximizes the expected net benefits of control under structured uncertainty, it also leads to the policy that maximizes robustness to unstructured uncertainty.     

Can market-based policies accomplish the optimal floodplain management? A gap between static and dynamic models

The purpose of this short article is to set static and dynamic models for optimal floodplain management and to compare policy implications from the models. River floodplains are important multiple resources in that they provide various ecosystem services. It is fundamentally significant to consider environmental externalities that accrue from ecosystem services of natural floodplains. There is an interesting gap between static and dynamic models about policy implications for floodplain management, although they are based on the same assumptions. Essentially, we can derive the same optimal conditions, which imply that the marginal benefits must equal the sum of the marginal costs and the social external costs related to ecosystem services. Thus, we have to internalise the external costs by market-based policies. In this respect, market-based policies seem to be effective in a static model. However, they are not sufficient in the context of a dynamic model because the optimal steady state turns out to be unstable. Based on a dynamic model, we need more coercive regulation policies.     

SEWER AND WATER PRICING AND INVESTMENT POLICIES TO IMPLEMENT URBAN GROWTH POLICY1

ABSTRACT. The article proposes the use of certain water and sewer extension pricing and investment policies. Such policies would complement an urban growth policy designed to guide the location and timing of growth in urbanizing areas. Proposed pricing policies are based upon marginal cost principles. The types of pricing policies discussed include benefit assessments, connection fees, and user charges. Proposed investment policies deal with the division of financing responsiblities between the public and private sectors. Discussion of each proposal explains the economic influence of the proposed policies upon key decision makers in the land development process. The application of proposed pricing and investment policies in the case study communities is mixed. In Knoxville, Tennessee, where pricing and investment policies reflect the proposed policies, no urban growth policy exists. In Lexington, Kentucky, mixed pricing and investment policies do not complement what is a relatively good urban growth policy. In Greensboro, North Carolina, reasonably effective pricing and investment policies complement other policies which provide some guidance to the urban growth pattern. It is hoped that the article will increase the recognition of utility pricing and investment policies as one means of implementing urban growth policy.     

Water supply policies and issues in developing countries

The significant progress made during the UN International Water Decade is reviewed, eight years after its inception in 1981. Major issues remain, especially in rural areas. The advantages of an integrated water resource planning framework (IWRP) are explained, including the use of this process to develop a flexible strategy for the water and sewerage sector to meet national policy objectives. Economic efficiency in supply implies optimal service quality and least cost planning, while efficient pricing policy requires the implementation of long-run marginal cost based tariffs. Better sector organization, management, accountability, options for decentralization and innovative financing methods are also discussed.     

“双碳”背景下碳排放的边际外部性成本及最佳碳税的思考

气候变暖与环境恶化已成为人类生存和发展的重大威胁。鉴于碳排放具有负外部性,研究碳排放的边际外部性成本并探究最佳碳税,对于推进实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文通过构建一个无限期的多部门新古典增长模型,探究碳排放的边际外部性成本及其影响因素,并对最优的碳税政策进行思考。研究结果表明：当居民消费效用函数呈对数形式、大气损害与产量成正比、大气中的碳含量存在线性关系和储蓄率不变等假设条件成立时,碳排放的边际外部性成本与产出成正比,且比例只与贴现率、大气损害函数和大气中的碳消散结构有关。因此,在碳税政策的制定上,要坚持经济发展与生态环境保护并重,分阶段动态优化调整碳税税率：在高贴现率时期提高碳税税率,分行业施行碳税政策和补贴政策,同时为了避免经济社会遭受到较大的冲击,起初征收碳税时税率不宜过高;考虑不同体量企业收入差距和负担能力,采用累进碳税征收机制;分地区实施差别税率,统筹区域协调发展。     

A proposal to conserve black-footed ferrets and the prairie dog ecosystem

Prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) have been poisoned throughout this century because of grazing competition with livestock. Recent evidence showed these early claims were exaggerated, but animal control was already entrenched in government policy. As a result, ongoing government subsidized poisoning has reduced prairie dogs to about 2% of their former distribution. The reduction of prairie dogs diminished species diversity in the arid grasslands of North America, including the potential extinction of the black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes). Cost-benefit analysis revealed that poisoning costs more than any grazing benefits accrued. This analysis did not consider the long-term costs of reversing ecosystem degradation, the intangible value of biological diversity as a public benefit, or the depletion of biotic resources as a loss of actual or potential wealth. The government presently finances the poisoning policy and the preservation of endangered species like the black-footed ferret, two apparently conflicting programs. We, therefore, propose an integrated management plan that considers both interests. We propose that federal monies allocated to the poisoning program be converted into a rebate for ranchers who manage livestock while preserving the prairie dog community. This would redirect funds and personnel already allocated to prairie dog eradication to an incentive for ranchers who manage for livestock and wildlife. Livestock interests and grassland biotic diversity would both benefit.     

区域大气环境质量管理的合作机制与政策讨论

区域环境管理与合作有助于从区域的角度出发解决由于跨界污染引发的利益冲突和纠纷;同时由于有效的区域管理和合作有可能基于区域间污染治理成本的差异,制定最小成本的污染防治战略,可以因此推动整个区域的协调发展。2010年以来,中国大气污染防治已经开始向区域管理转化,并开始步入跨地区合作的新阶段。但这种转型,尚缺乏有效的制度安排和政策手段的支撑。已有的区域环境管理合作实践所存在的诸多不足和障碍主要源于缺乏不同主体进行有效合作的激励机制,一方面由于各地区所处的经济发展阶段、地方环境保护意识等方面存在差异,往往很难促成真正的整合管理与合作;另一方面体现在相应的责任-利益协调机制缺失,致使跨地区合作难以常规化和长效化。因此,构建合理的区域大气环境管理与合作机制至关重要。本文分析和讨论了区域环境管理与合作中的关键问题,并在此基础上提出构建区域环境管理与合作机制的几点思考。     

Uncertainty in optimal pollution levels: modelling and evaluating the benefit area

This paper identifies the optimal pollution level under the assumptions of linear, quadratic and exponential damage and abatement cost functions and investigates analytically the certain restrictions that the existence of this optimal level requires. The evaluation of the benefit area is discussed and the mathematical formulation provides the appropriate methods for that to be calculated. The positive, at least from a theoretical point of view, is that both the quadratic and the exponential case obey the same form for evaluating the benefit area. These benefit area estimations can be used as indexes between different rival policies, and depending on the environmental problem, the policy that produces the maximum area will be the beneficial policy.     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

A quantitative succession model for nine montana forest communities

A quantitative succession model was developed both to meet resource management needs in Montana's Lewis and Clark National Forest and to develop a modeling methodology. It builds upon previous concepts and incudes three new features: quantitative prediction of all tree species and seedlings; quantitative predictions of important understory species; and successional pathways determined by fire intensity and scorch height. The method is described and demonstrated for selected Montana habitat (community) types. It is also available in managerial guidelines and has been programmed as a new module in theforplan simulator. Weaknesses of this and other models are discussed. Conclusions relate succession modeling to resource management needs.     

Landscape Equivalency Analysis: Methodology for Estimating Spatially Explicit Biodiversity Credits

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.     

Project appraisal and planning for overdeveloped countries: I. The costing of nonrenewable resources

In cost-benefit analysis, natural resources, like other factors of production, should be costed as a mixture of marginal social cost of exploiting additional resources and lost marginal social benefit of forgone alternative uses, according to the way in which extra resources are made available to a project. For a nonrenewable resource, changes in future marginal social cost and marginal social benefit are likely to add significantly to the immediate elements of cost, as successively less tractable resource stocks are exploited. Of the several reasons given for ignoring these future costs, the most plausible is that technological advance justifies a heavy discount on the future. However, neither historical nor logical arguments demonstrate the inevitability of efficacious technological advance.     

The interpretation of planning refusals

The extent to which Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) refuse applications for building and engineering works varies substantially between type of development, between region and over time. This paper seeks to explain these variations. It does so by arguing that the refusal rate measures the difference between the tightness of LPA policy and the quality of the applications submitted, and that this last increases with the benefit/cost ratio afforded by development at application sites and with applicant regard for LPA policy. It is concluded that the benefit/cost ratio (affecting application quality) is the prime determinant of refusal rate differences for applications submitted nationally for different development types. However, the refusal rate for other major development is higher than expected on benefit/cost grounds and other major developments may be subject to tight LPA policy. The benefit/cost ratio also explains much of the regional variation in the refusal rate. However the high refusal rates in the South East and South West regions result because low quality applications are submitted by applicants who have little regard for LPA policy. In contrast, the low refusal rate in the Northern region results because applicant regard for LPA policy, and hence application quality, are high. Refusal rate changes over time are explained primarily in terms of the tightness of LPA policy and in terms of applicant regard for LPA policy. Over the last 15 years in England and Wales, LPAs have relaxed their policies while applicant regard for LPA policy, and hence application quality, have declined. The net effect has left the refusal rate little changed.     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

Balancing Endangered Species and Ecosystems: A Case Study of Adaptive Management in Grand Canyon

/ Adaptive ecosystem management seeks to sustain ecosystems while extracting or using natural resources. The goal of endangered species management under the Endangered Species Act is limited to the protection and recovery of designated species, and the act takes precedence over other policies and regulations guiding ecosystem management. We present an example of conflict between endangered species and ecosystem management during the first planned flood on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon in 1996. We discuss the resolution of the conflict and the circumstances that allowed a solution to be reached. We recommend that adaptive management be implemented extensively and early in ecosystem management so that information and working relationships will be available to address conflicts as they arise. Though adaptive management is not a panacea, it offers the best opportunity for balanced solutions to competing management goals.     

Environmental management of small-scale and artisanal mining: the Portovelo-Zaruma goldmining area,southern Ecuador

This paper considers technical measures and policy initiatives needed to improve environmental management in the Portovelo-Zaruma mining district of southern Ecuador. In this area, gold is mined by a large number of small-scale and artisanal operators, and discharges of cyanide and metal-laden tailings have had a severe impact on the shared Ecuadorian-Peruvian Puyango river system. It is shown to be technically possible to confine mining waste and tailings at a reasonable cost. However, the complex topography of the mining district forces tailings management to be communal, where all operators are connected to one central tailings impoundment. This, in turn, implies two things: (i) that a large number of operators must agree to pool resources to bring such a facility into reality; and (ii) that miners must move away from rudimentary operations that survive on a day-to-day basis, towards bigger, mechanized and longer-term sustainable operations that are based on proven ore reserves. It is deemed unlikely that existing environmental regulations and the provision of technical solutions will be sufficient to resolve the environmental problems. Important impediments relate to the limited financial resources available to each individual miner and the problems of pooling these resources, and to the fact that the main impacts of pollution are suffered downstream of the mining district and, hence, do not affect the miners themselves. Three policy measures are therefore suggested. First, the enforcement of existing regulations must be improved, and this may be achieved by the strengthening of the central authority charged with supervision and control of mining activities. Second, local government involvement and local public participation in environmental management needs to be promoted. Third, a clear policy should be defined which promotes the reorganisation of small operations into larger units that are strong enough to sustain rational exploration and environmental obligations. The case study suggests that mining policy in lesser-developed countries should develop to enable small-scale and artisanal miners to form entities that are of a sufficiently large scale to allow adequate and cost-effective environmental protection.     

A travel cost study to estimate recreational value for a bird refuge at Lake Manyas, Turkey

This paper investigates the recreational economic value of bird watching in the Ku?cenneti National Park (KNP) at Lake Manyas, one of the Ramsar sites of Turkey and an important endangered species habitat. The lake and KNP provide considerable benefits for the region, although they have faced many environmental conflicts due to diverse stakeholders’ needs. An economic valuation for the benefits provided by the KNP is important data for stakeholders and local authorities. The travel cost method is used to estimate recreational demand for the KNP. The recreational value of the KNP is 103,320,074 USD annually. Results shed light on important policy issues and help to resolve conflicts among stakeholders. This calculated value is considerably higher than the annual investment and operation expenditures of the KNP. Sustainability of the important species around the lake could be achieved if the region's inhabitants are compensated by KNP visitors.     

A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTI‐RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi‐reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the parameterization‐simulation‐optimization scheme. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e., hydropower plants). This methodology enables the radical decrease of the number of decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. It is adaptable in a wide range of water resources systems, and its purpose is to support water and power supply companies and related authorities. It already has been applied to two of the most complicated hydrosystems of Greece, the first time as a planning tool and the second time as a management tool.