World demand for cobalt: An econometric study

This article analyses the world demand for cobalt. It estimates short- and long-run elasticities with respect to price, activity and in some cases with respect to substitute-complement variables. For the USA these estimates have been obtained for all the important end-use categories. Aggregate elasticities are estimated for Japan, West Germany, France and for the non-communist world (excluding the USA). The appendix to the paper models price setting in the cobalt market and presents two simple simulations conducted on the world cobalt market.     

Petrochemical markets in the UK: Methodological aspects of assessing future demand

This article focuses on how input-output techniques could be applied to study the petrochemical industry in general and plastics materials in particular. The theory serves as a tool for understanding the operations of the industry and, therefore, allows for a better control and organization of its development process.     

Non-ferrous metals and economic growth: The future demand for lead

As national economies grow, requirements for physical resources increase. This paper attempts to forecast future world demand for lead, by deriving a relationship between the amount consumed per capita and the level of economic development, and then using this to generate world demand figures based on some predictions of future economic growth. Although the rate of increase in demand for lead may decline as high levels of GDP are reached, it is nevertheless predicted that world annual demand could continue rising exponentially over the next 50 or 60 years, in the absence of constraints due to lack of physical resources or very high differential prices. This is essentially because large areas of the world will still be increasing their GDP per capita over the range where the rate of increase in demand for lead is increasing steeply.     

The seventh world conservation lecture the World Bank's challenge: Balancing economic need with environmental protection

The World Conservation Lecture is an annual event organised by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) — United Kingdom, to draw attention to the World Conservation Strategy. This lecture was presented at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in London on 3 March 1988. Full copies of the lecture, in booklet form, are available from the Education Department, WWF — UK, Panda House, Weyside Park, Godalming, Surrey, GU7 1XR.     

The role of new technologies in reducing energy demand

Energy efficiency is often stated to be the most cost-effective measure for satisfying our energy demand with minimal environmental damage. However, the potential energy savings attainable in 'the real world' are frequently overestimated, as is shown in an industrial case study of the glass industry. Nevertheless, there are significant energy savings to be realized, and the role of new technologies in this is important. However, the key to the effective use of new technology for improved energy efficiency is good management and. for best effect, it must be integrated into the normal resource management activities of a company.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Reduction of ammonia emission by shallow slurry injection: injection efficiency and additional energy demand

Ammonia (NH3) emission from livestock production causes undesirable environmental effects and a loss of plant-available nitrogen. Much atmospheric NH3 is lost from livestock manure applied in the field. The NH3 emission may be reduced by slurry injection, but slurry injection in general, and especially on grassland, increases the energy demand and places heavy demands on the slurry injection techniques used. The reduction in NH3 emission, injection efficiency, and energy demand of six different shallow slurry-injection techniques was examined. The NH3 emission from cattle slurry applied to grassland was reduced by all the injectors tested in the study, but there were major differences in the NH3 reduction potential of the different types of injectors. Compared with the trailing hose spreading technique, the NH3 loss was reduced by 75% when cattle slurry was injected using the most efficient slurry injection technique, and by 20% when incorporated by the least efficient injection technique. The reduction in NH3 emission was correlated with injection depth and the volume of the slot created. The additional energy demand for reducing ammonia emissions by slurry injection was approximately 13 000 kJ ha(-1) for a 20% reduction and 34 000 kJ ha(-1) for a 75% reduction. The additional energy demand corresponds to additional emissions of, respectively, 5.6 and 14.5 kg CO2 per ha injected.     

Managing the metropolitan environment: the challenge for European cities

Traditional approaches to metropolitan management have placed stress upon the achievement of physical and economic growth. In recent years attention has turned to environmental concerns and the achievement of sustainable urban development. It is important to define the objectives for the sustainable development of cities and to identify the principles upon which such development can be based.     

Tropical forests: The policy challenge

Summary Tropical forests are being destroyed faster than ever, the rate having almost doubled during the 1980s. The main agent of deforestation now turns out to be the displaced peasant or landless farmer, sometimes known as the shifted cultivator; that group accounts for more forest loss than the combined impacts of the commercial logger, the cattle rancher and all other better known sources of deforestation. Yet, the over-riding target of conservation efforts remains the minor players in the forest's decline. All too little attention is directed towards the shifted cultivator, and next to nothing is done to address the problem which this group represents. Policy purviews need to be expanded to include the key factor of the shifted cultivator. In turn, it must determined what impels these people to abandon established farming areas in the countries concerned and to migrate into the forests. It appears that these people are driven by an array of forces: population growth, maldistribution of arable lands, inadequate rural infrastructure and lack of government attention to subsistence agriculture. In other words, the source problem is an amalgam of non-forestry factors, and conservationists will not achieve success in safeguarding the remaining forests unless they direct much more emphasis towards these root causes of deforestation.Dr Norman Myers is a consultant in environment and development, a member of this journal's Advisory Board and a regular contributor to the journal (seeThe Environmentalist,8(3), 187–208 and10(4), 243–256).     

Long-term resource demand : Models for projection

This paper argues that there has been insufficient analysis of long-term forecasting methods for resource demand at national level, compared with the attention devoted to supply factors. It suggests several important issues which need to be understood about the nature of demand projection and its pitfalls. Some significant and widely used resource demand models are summarized, all of which are particularly vulnerable to the uncertainty of macroeconomic modelling.     

Reply: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

In a recent article (Tilton, Humphreys, and Radetzki, 2011), Tilton et al. argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise. They contend that this conclusion, which is based on two hypothetical examples, is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In my comment on the article (Olle Östensson, 2011), I challenged this finding. In a reply to my article, Tilton et al. maintain that their original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when stocks are falling. In my present reply, I contend that their argument with respect to the first example confuses the actions of a minority of investors with those of all investors and is well accommodated within the framework of traditional theory. I further argue that their second example rests on an assumption regarding investor behavior that is unproven and that in any case falls outside the framework of analysis of futures markets.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply

In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.     

The biodiversity challenge: Expanded hot-spots analysis

Summary This paper aims to throw light on the mass extinction that is overtaking Earth's species. Using an analytic methodology developed for an earlier partial assessment, it focuses on a series of hot-spot areas, these being areas that (a) feature exceptional concentrations of species with high levels of endemism, and (b) face exceptional threats of destruction. The paper identifies another eight such areas, four of them in tropical forests and four in Mediterranean-type zones. The analysis reveals that the four tropical-forest areas contain at least 2,835 endemic plant species in 18,700 km², or 1.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.013 percent of Earth's land surface; and that the four Mediterranean-type areas contain 12,720 endemic plan: species in 435,700 km², or 5.1 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of the Earth's land surface. Taken together, these eight hot-spot areas contain 15,555 endemic plant species in 454,400 km², or 6.2 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.3 percent of Earth's land surface. This is to be compared with the earlier hot-spots analysis of 10 tropical-forest areas, with 34,400 endemic plant species in 292,000 km², or 13.8 percent of Earth's plant species in 0.2 percent of Earth's land surface.Taking all 18 hot-spot areas together, we find they support 49,955 endemic plant species, or 20 percent of Earth's plant species, in 746,400 km², or 0.5 percent of Earth's land surface. This means that one fifth of Earth's plant species are confined to half of one percent of the Earth's land surface — and they occur in habitats that are mostly threatened with imminent destruction.By concentrating on these hot-spot areas where needs are greatest and where the pay-off from safeguard measures would be greatest, conservationists can engage in a more systematised response to the challenge of large scale impending extinctions.Dr Norman Myers is a consultant in environment and development, a member of this journal's Advisory Board, and a regular contributor to the journal. He is a Senior Fellow of World Wildlife Fund — US. This paper enlarges on an important theme developed by Dr Myers in a contribution which appeared inThe Environmentalist,8(3), 187–208. The research for this paper has been supported by the MacArthur Foundation, Chicago, USA.     

Emergent aspects of environment: A creative challenge

Summary Our environmental situation continues to decline faster than ever. This is demonstrated by, the growing spread of pollution of both the water and atmospheric systems, erosion of topsoil, tropical deforestation, desertification, mass extinction of species, depletion of the ozone layer, and climatic dislocations. Compounding the impact of these problems is growth in human numbers in developing countries, together with the associated factor of extensive poverty. The author asks why our environmental situation should continue to decline, despite a remarkable outburst of awareness on the part of the general public and its political leaders since the time of the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. The author concludes that the problem does not lie with inadequate effort, rather with misdirected effort: we persist in tackling the symptoms of problems, rather than the problems themselves, let alone the sources of the problems. The paper broaches these issues within a context of fast-growing interdependence among the community of nations — both economic and ecological interdependence — which presents yet more problems, but also raises many opportunities for creative action.Professor Norman Myers is a consultant in environment and development. He has worked since 1970 on the general subject area of environment and natural resources, with emphasis on species, gene reservoirs and tropical forests. He was undertaken this consultancy work for the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, US National Academy of Sciences, the World Bank, OECD, the Smithsonian Institution, UN agencies, World Resources Institute, US National Research Council and IUCN, among other organizations. His main professional interest lies with resource relationships between the developed and developing worlds.Among his recent publications areThe Sinking Ark (Pergamon Press, Oxford and New York, 1979);Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests (National Research Council, Washington D.C., 1980);A Wealth of Wild Species (Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1983);The Primary Source (W. W. Norton, New York, 1984); andThe Gaia Atlas of Planet Management (Doubleday, New York, and Pan Books, London, 1985).Norman Myers is an Advisory Board Member and regular contributor toThe Environmentalist.     

Estimating relative demand for wildlife: Conservation activity indicators

An alternative method of estimating relative demand among nonconsumptive uses of wildlife and among wildlife species is proposed. A demand intensity score (DIS), derived from the relative extent of an individual's involvement in outdoor recreation and conservation activities, is used as a weighting device to adjust the importance of preference rankings for wildlife uses and wildlife species relative to other members of a survey population. These adjusted preference rankings were considered to reflect relative demand levels (RDLs) for wildlife uses and for species by the survey population. This technique may be useful where it is not possible or desirable to estimate demand using traditional economic means. In one of the findings from a survey of municipal conservation commission members in Massachusetts, presented as an illustration of this methodology, poisonous snakes were ranked third in preference among five groups of reptiles. The relative demand level for poisonous snakes, however, was last among the five groups.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply 2

This, our second reply to Östensson, supplements our earlier more technical analysis with a simple intuitive explanation of how investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.