郯城历史巨震情景的山东省灾情评估研究(Ⅱ)——以救灾储备库需求与备灾策略为例

根据我国救灾物资储备库建设的标准,紧急转移安置山东省89个县级行政区的870.9万人,需要救灾物资储备库面积289 172 m2,但山东省现有的储备库总面积仅为65 896 m2,即目前的救灾物资储备库仅能满足23%的需安置人口,而尚有77%缺口。其中山东临沂、枣庄、菏泽、日照、济宁是郯城地震的主要影响区,储备库缺口较大、供需矛盾最为突出。因此,综合山东省现有救灾物资储备体系基础,建议山东省采用以济南、潍坊、临沂为中心的"三头备灾"模式,重点加强临沂市的储备库建设,以有效提升山东省备灾体系的救灾效率。     

发挥纽带桥梁作用积极为政府提供决策服务

河北省灾害防御协会从1990年11月成立以来,在综合防灾减灾和对各种灾害的研究和预测方面发挥了积极作用.每年一度的"河北省年度灾情趋势预测与减灾对策"报告,报省政府后受到省领导的高度重视,为政府防灾减灾工作提供了决策服务.该文对协会的成长发展过程作了较全面的回顾,对协会今后的防灾减灾工作提出了设想.     

城市防灾救灾组织机构设置的研究

本文首先阐明了合理的组织机构在城市防灾工作中的作用，然后通过对典型城市防灾救灾组织机构现状和问题的分析，提出防灾救灾组织机构设置的原则，构造了城市防灾救灾组织机构的改进型矩阵模式，并分析了该模式的特点和实施步骤。     

每个人都应成为防灾救灾的主角

人类发展的历程,就是一部不断与自然灾害作斗争的历史。随着文明程度的提高,人们已经可以利用高科技预测部分灾害,并采取措施     

发挥综合优势开展减灾研究——为政府防灾减灾决策提供科学依据

防灾减灾属于社会公益性事业范畴.防灾减灾事关人民生命财产安全和社会经济可持续发展.介绍了宁夏回族自治区灾害防御协会在防灾减灾社会宣传、研究和为各级政府提供服务等方面的工作情况并结合当地实际,就防灾减灾社团自身能力建设及当前重点工作等问题提出了一些建议.     

中国自然灾害减灾救灾标准的演变特点

厘清现有自然灾害相关标准的现状、分析现行标准中存在的不足及其标准颁布的时空格局对完善国家减灾救灾标准体系具有重要的参考价值。分析了中国现有自然灾害防灾减灾相关标准的现状及标准颁布的时空特点,以中国现有自然灾害减灾救灾相关的标准为数据基础,基于标准化三维空间体系理论,构建了中国减灾救灾标准化三维空间体系。结果表明:中国的自然灾害相关标准数量多、灾种全;现有与自然灾害相关的标准在数量上存在较大的差异,地震灾害相关的标准较多,海洋、森林草原火灾相关的标准较少;近40年,中国每年平均颁布21.6条自然灾害相关的标准;中国已有29个省(市、区)参与了自然灾害相关标准的研制,主要集中于北京、河北、陕西等北方地区;大多数灾害相关标准的研制集中于20世纪90年代。     

巨灾债券与政府灾害救助

发生概率小而损失巨大的巨灾无疑对国民经济有着重要的影响。我国幅员辽阔，尽管每年灾害的性质和发生地点不同，但是损失总量和政府救灾的支付总量却是一个稳定的大数，然而依然不能满足救灾与恢复生产的需要。借鉴经济发达国家保险业的巨灾债券，首次提出在政府救灾中引入市场机制——发行政府巨灾债券。这对于投资者是收益高的风险投资，对于政府可以减轻公共财政负担，而对于受灾地区则可以获得更多的资金支援，加快恢复生产，保证经济增长的稳定性。     

Enhancing disaster management by mapping disaster proneness and preparedness

The focus of most disaster management programmes is to deploy resources-physical and human-from outside the disaster zone. This activity can produce a delay in disaster mitigation and recovery efforts, and a consequent loss of human lives and economic resources. It may be possible to expedite recovery and prevent loss of life by mapping out disaster proneness and the availability of resources in advance. This study proposes the development of two indices to do so. The Indian census data of 2001 is used to develop a methodology for creating one index on disaster proneness and one on resourcefulness for administrative units (tehsils). Findings reveal that tehsil residents face an elevated risk of disaster and that they are also grossly under-prepared for such events. The proposed indices can be used to map regional service provision facilities and to assist authorities in evaluating immediate, intermediate, and long-term disaster recovery needs and resource requirements.     

Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.     

中国自然灾害备灾能力评价与地域划分

阐述了自然灾害发生之前,备灾响应能力评价的指标选择、指标模型的建立和地域划分;厘定了救灾物资的分类体系;基于救灾物资救助等级的划分程序,提出了国家主要灾种和救灾物资的救助评价等级及其地域划分.救灾物资的救助地域划分,不仅可以为国家不同自然灾害救灾物资代储类型和数量的地域匹配提供依据,而且可以为灾害救助区划服务,特别是为灾中应急和灾后恢复提供物资保障,从而达到有效减灾的目的.     

城市防震减灾及其对策

城市是一个区域政治、经济、文化中心、是交通、通讯的重要枢纽,随着城市化进程的加快,城市规模日益扩大,城市人口、财产、建筑物更加密集,一旦遭受强烈地震袭击或波及,灾害损失将十分严重,加之,许多城市都处在地震的易发多发地带,地震对许多城市的安全构成了严重的威胁,本文对防震减灾工作进行了探讨。     

New policy directions in disaster preparedness and response in ethiopia

Following the fall of the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in May 1991, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia has initiated new policy directions in relation to national disaster preparedness and response. Drawing on the lessons learnt from more than a decade's experience of famine and famine relief work in the north of the country, policies are emerging from the reconstituted Relief and Rehabilitation Commission that represent a new agenda for the conduct of assistance programs. These changes have important implications for the relationship between the Transitional Government, international aid organizations and local communities.     

基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度

台风是我国东南沿海各省夏秋季中经常遭遇的自然灾害。在台风登陆之前，根据气象部门对台风发生过程及发展趋势的分析，预测防御范围，进行必要的应急疏散与救援调度，可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失。研究了城市在风灾情况下进行疏散的模拟方法。将微观离散模型和宏观交通流模型相结合，采用元胞自动机原理和LW宏观交通流理论，建立了城市区域不同类型的疏散模型和应急服务规划模型，进行了人员和车辆的疏散模拟与分析，并在此基础上研制了基于GIS的灾害疏散模拟及救援调度系统，该系统可对城市防灾减灾规划和灾时应急预案的制定提供决策支持。     

Re-framing risk: the changing context of disaster mitigation and preparedness

This issue of Disasters explores the roles of NGOs and other actors in disaster mitigation and preparedness and also reviews broad international trends in risk management and disaster prevention. The need to address risk, and with that the motivation to improve disaster mitigation and preparedness, has tended to fall between the cracks of grander frameworks of development co-operation and humanitarian assistance. Despite the seemingly glaring need to reduce the horrific impact of floods, droughts and wars, disaster mitigation and preparedness have neither the allure of directly 'saving lives', nor of providing an 'escape from poverty'. There are, however, signs that risk management is becoming a mainstream concern. Factors such as the need to address factors that do not fit into traditional slots on the relief-development continuum, the rising economic costs of disasters and a growing acknowledgement that aid will never cover more than a small fraction of the costs of disasters are all leading to new approaches, priorities and institutional configurations. A realisation that dealing with risk and insecurity is a central part of how poor people develop their livelihood strategies has begun to position disaster mitigation and preparedness within many poverty alleviation agendas. A number of long-standing challenges remain; most of all, the complexities of maintaining the political will that is needed to ensure that risk management becomes more than a passing fad.     

大中城市震害预测与辅助决策的空间分析

利用GIS的空间分析功能，对大中城市防震减灾示范研究成果进行了空间区划分析，给出了城市高危害街区的计算方法和结果，同时给出了各种结构类型房屋破坏面积、人员伤亡和无家可归人口数在各个街区的空间分布结果，以及基于此空间分布结果的医疗救护、人员疏散和物资供应等辅助决策分析。该分析的主要意义在于能充分了解大中城市潜在震害的空间分布，为震前采取相应预防措施和震后开展应急救灾工作提供了方便。