A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?

Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models – the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) – for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.     

Carbon tax,emission trading,or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?

China, as the world’s largest emitter, intends to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early to mitigate global change. Under this strategy, a dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the economy, energy, and environment impact of CO₂ emission reduction policy based on 17 scenarios in China: carbon tax, emission trading scheme (ETS), and the mixed policy in different price level, in order to find out which kind of emission reduction strategy is more feasible. The results show that CO₂ emission in 2030 will be reduced with the implementation of tax, ETS and mixed policy, by 10–13 %, 12–14 %, and 18–28 %, respectively. From 2016 to 2030, China can reduce 18,338–24,156 Mt CO₂ through the implementation of mixed policy. Furthermore, relative to single policy, mixed policy has stronger effects on primary energy consumption cut, by 738–1124 Mtoe or 18–28 %, which will make CO₂ emissions reach a peak before 2030 and the peak emission is not greater than 12 billion tons which is in line with the reduction demand in China. Thus, the mixed policy is the most effective strategy so that mixed policy is recommended to parties included in Annex I in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol and other countries with large potential of emission reduction, while ETS is suggested to countries with low carbon emissions per capita which can balance economic development and CO₂ mitigation.     

Australian bushfire fatalities 1900–2008: exploring trends in relation to the ‘Prepare,stay and defend or leave early’ policy

In many jurisdictions, including parts of the US, authorities often dictate mandatory evacuations of communities threatened by bushfire (wildfire). Prior to the 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ fires in Victoria, Australian fire authorities in all States advised residents to decide whether they would prepare to stay and defend homes or leave early. The clear intent of that policy was to avoid late evacuations and the risks to life that this could entail. This study re-examines evidence underpinning this policy using analyses of a database of bushfire fatalities. The database contains information on 552 civilian (non-fire fighter) fatalities obtained from print media archives at Risk Frontiers and forensic, witness and police statements contained within coronial inquest reports for all bushfire fatalities between 1901 and 2008. This data, compiled before the Black Saturday fires, clearly show the dangers of being caught outside during a bushfire and the gendered division of the circumstances of these deaths. While men have been most often killed outside while attempting to protect assets, most female and child fatalities occurred while sheltering in the house or attempting to flee. The database provides a benchmark against which the Black Saturday experience can be examined.     

Beauty ranking of mammalian species kept in the Prague Zoo: does beauty of animals increase the respondents’ willingness to protect them?

Aesthetic preferences for animals correspond with the species’ presence in the worldwide zoos and influence the conservation priorities. Here, we investigated the relationship between the willingness of respondents to protect mammals and some attributed characteristics such as their aesthetic beauty. Further, several methodological aspects of measuring mammalian beauty were assessed. Animal beauty was associated not only with the respondents’ willingness to protect the species but also with its attributed dangerousness and usefulness. We found that the most preferred animals were carnivores and ungulates, whilst smaller species of rodents and afrosoricids were unpopular. The main characteristics determining that an animal will be ranked as beautiful were complex fur pattern and body shape. We demonstrated that the position of mammalian species along the ‘beauty’ axis is surprisingly stable, no matter the form (illustrations vs photographs), context of stimulus presentation (several number of stimuli per family vs one randomly selected species per family), or the method of beauty evaluation (relative order vs Likert’s scale).     

A butterfly’s chemical key to various ant forts: intersection-odour or aggregate-odour multi-host mimicry?

Deception is a crucial yet incompletely understood strategy of social parasites. In central Europe, the Mountain Alcon Blue, Maculinea rebeli, a highly endangered butterfly, parasitises several Myrmica ant species. Caterpillars gain access to host nests probably by faking the ants odour. We analysed gas chromatography–mass spectrometry data of body surface hydrocarbons of pre-adoption and hibernated larvae of Maculinea rebeli and of their host species Myrmica sabuleti and M. schencki. Data were ordinated by different methods, based on similarities in the relative quantities of compounds between chromatograms. The two Myrmica species exhibit species-specific profiles. The Maculinea rebeli pre-adoption larva has a complex profile that simultaneously contains species-specific substances of the two investigated host species. This evidence leads to the interpretation that, in central Europe, Maculinea rebeli is predisposed for multi-host use by the chemical signature of its pre-adoption larva. The Maculinea rebeli larva clearly does not rely on an intersection-odour of compounds common to all host ant species, but synthesises an aggregate-odour containing specific compounds of each of the investigated hosts. We term this previously unknown chemical strategy aggregate-odour multi-host mimicry.B.C. Schlick-Steiner and F.M. Steiner contributed equally to this work.     

An individual and a sex odor signature in kittiwakes? Study of the semiochemical composition of preen secretion and preen down feathers

The importance of olfaction in birds’ social behavior has long been denied. Avian chemical signaling has thus been relatively unexplored. The black-legged kittiwake provides a particularly appropriate model for investigating this topic. Kittiwakes preferentially mate with genetically dissimilar individuals, but the cues used to assess genetic characteristics remain unknown. As in other vertebrates, their body odors may carry individual and sexual signatures thus potentially reliably signaling individual genetic makeup. Here, we test whether body odors in preen gland secretion and preen down feathers in kittiwakes may provide a sex and an individual signature. Using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry, we found that male and female odors differ quantitatively, suggesting that scent may be one of the multiple cues used by birds to discriminate between sexes. We further detected an individual signature in the volatile and nonvolatile fractions of preen secretion and preen down feathers. These results suggest that kittiwake body odor may function as a signal associated with mate recognition. It further suggests that preen odor might broadcast the genetic makeup of individuals, and could be used in mate choice to assess the genetic compatibility of potential mates.     

Reauthorization of CERCLA and the redevelopment of brownfields: who will pay the orphan’s share?

This paper examines significant and unjustifiable differences arising under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA, Pub. L. No. 96-510, 94 Stat. at Large 2767, codified as amended at 42 USC §§ 9601-9675) in the way in which the Superfund may be used to remediate "orphaned" National Priorities List (NPL) sites and "orphaned" brownfield sites. Under both the existing law and numerous proposals for the reauthorization of CERCLA, while the Superfund may be used for the remediation of orphaned NPL sites, it may not be used for the remediation of orphaned brownfield sites. In each situation, however, an absent, insolvent, defunct, bankrupt or judgment-proof party has created a situation in which remediation costs must be borne by the public. The study concludes that there is no fundamental policy reason for treating these orphans differently and presents recommendations to facilitate the remediation and redevelopment of both NPL sites and brownfield sites.     

A methodological proposal for the evaluation of farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America

The current study shows the process and the results of a methodology proposed to contribute with the issue of how to evaluate the adaptation to climate variability and future climate change. The proposed methodology consists of a standard to evaluate farmer’s adaptation to climate variability, mainly due to drought in watersheds in Central America; and was created with contributions from experts and professionals around this region. The phases for this process were: (1) literature review about the topic, (2) development of a preliminary standard, (3) expert interviews for the evaluation of this preliminary standard, (4) construction of a standard to evaluate the issue of adaptation to climate variability emphasizing drought through contributions from experts and their preliminary evaluations, (5) applicability test of this standard for the evaluation of climate variability under real conditions and (6) application of this standard through a case study in the Aguas Calientes river sub-watershed in Nicaragua, which permanently undergoes drought problems and climate variability. This standard has five main principles that go from the general, considering regional and national policies and institutionalism, to the specifics at the level of watersheds. In addition to those principles, the standard contains ten criteria, 26 indicators and 51 verifiers distributed among the main five principles. In the process for testing this standard in the Aguas Calientes river watershed in Nicaragua, the score for the general applicability to this standard was middle-level (score of 3 in a scale of 1 to 5), although, for the main principles of this standard, the score was four (high).     

Knowledge users’ perspectives and advice on how to improve knowledge exchange and mobilization in the case of a co-managed fishery

Environmental scientists have long been frustrated by the difficulties involved in transferring their research findings into policy-making, management, and public spheres. Despite increases in scientific knowledge about social-ecological systems, research has consistently shown that regulators and stakeholders draw on tacit, informal, and experiential knowledge far more than scientific knowledge in their decision-making. Social science research in the fields of knowledge exchange (KE) and knowledge mobilization (KMb) suggest that one of the major barriers to moving knowledge into practice is that scientists fail to align their communication strategies with the information-seeking behaviours and preferences of potential knowledge users. This article presents findings from in-depth qualitative research with government employees and stakeholders involved in co-managing Pacific salmon fisheries in Canada’s Fraser River. We investigate how members of these groups access, view, and use scientific information, finding both similarities and differences. Members of both groups express a strong interest in academic science, and self-report using scientific information regularly in their work and advocacy. However, the two groups engage in different information-seeking behaviours, and provide notably different advice to academic scientists about how to make research and communication more relevant to potential users. For example, government employees focus on the immediate applications of research to known problems, while stakeholders express greater concern for the political context and implications of scientific findings. We argue that scientists need to “go where the users are” in the behavioural and intellectual sense, and tailor their communications and engagement activities to match the habits, preferences, and expectations of multiple potential user groups. We conclude with recommendations on how this may be done.     

CO2-emission reduction in China’s residential building sector and contribution to the national climate change mitigation targets in 2020

Between 1980 and 2007, in the Chinese building sector in urban and rural areas, coal was mainly substituted with electricity and natural gas. Growing income will further increase energy consumption and CO₂-emissions in the building sector. Using an econometric model, disaggregated energy demand and related CO₂-emissions in the residential sector as well for the whole economy are estimated and forecasted until 2050. In 2009, the Chinese government pledged itself to reduce CO₂-intensity by 40%?C45% in 2020 compared to 2005. Aim of this article is to assess to which extent the measures in the building sector in China can contribute to this target. Main results of the analysis are: (a) The primary energy source coal was mainly substituted by electricity generated with coal. Apart from convenience gains, the environmental advantages are questionable. (b) Between 2010 and 2050, energy demand in the building sector will grow by 2.0%?C4.1% per annum leading to CO₂-emissions at least almost tripling from about 560 mill. tons in 2010 to about 1,500 mill. tons in 2050. (c) The energy efficiency gains in the building sector and other sectors of the Chinese economy, however, are not enough to fulfill the national CO₂-intensity targets. The reduction of the CO₂-intensity of GDP would be 37.2% in the BAU-scenario, and 31.9% in the LOW-scenario. Only in the HIGH-scenario (46.3%), the economy is growing efficient enough relative to the induced CO₂-emissions. The remaining CO2-emission reductions could be gained by additional promotion of renewable energies (mainly solar and geo-thermal) in the building sector.     

Adapting to risk and perpetuating poverty: Household’s strategies for managing flood risk and water scarcity in Mexico City

Adaptation is typically conceived uniquely in positive terms, however for some populations, investments in risk management can entail significant tradeoffs. Here we discuss the burden for households of coping with, and adapting to, adverse water conditions in economically marginal areas of Mexico City. We argue that households’ efforts to adapt in conditions of marginality can come at the expense of households’ investment in other aspects of human welfare, reinforcing poverty traps. Both economic theory and social-ecological systems analysis point to the importance of cross-scalar investments and institutional support in breaking down persistent poverty traps. Using data from twelve focus groups conducted in Mexico City, we illustrate how such cross-scale connectivity is failing as a result of lack of trust and transparency, the difficulty of collective action, and the devolution of some responsibilities for risk management from the public sector to the household level. We conclude our analysis by arguing for greater attention to these tradeoffs in public policy to help ensure that adaptation does not come at the cost of more generic welfare gains among the most vulnerable populations.     

Torpor and activity in a free-ranging tropical bat: implications for the distribution and conservation of mammals?

Bats are most diverse in the tropics, but there are no quantitative data on torpor use for energy conservation by any tropical bat in the wild. We examined the thermal biology, activity patterns and torpor use of two tree-roosting long-eared bats (Nyctophilus geoffroyi, 7.8?g) in tropical northern Australia in winter using temperature telemetry. Bats commenced activity about 20?min after sunset, ended activity about 2.5?h before sunrise and entered torpor everyday in the early morning even when minimum ambient temperatures (T _a) were as high as 23°C. On average, bats remained torpid for almost 5?h, mean minimum skin temperature (T _skin) measured was 22.8?±?0.1°C and daily T _skin minima were correlated with T _a. Our study shows that even in the tropics, torpor is frequently employed by bats, suggesting that worldwide most bat species are heterothermic and use torpor for energy conservation. We propose that the ability of employing torpor and the resulting highly plastic energy requirements may partially explain why these small insectivorous bats can inhabit almost the entire Australian continent despite vastly different climatic and likely trophic conditions. Reduced energy requirements also may permit survival in degraded or modified habitats, reduce the need for foraging and reduce exposure to predators. Thus, the ability to employ torpor may be one important reason for why most Australian bats and other heterothermic mammals have not gone extinct whereas many obligatory homeothermic mammals that cannot employ torpor and have high energy and foraging requirements have suffered high rates of extinctions.     

What’s the buzz? Ultrasonic and sonic warning signals in caterpillars of the great peacock moth (Saturnia pyri)

Caterpillars have many natural enemies and, therefore, have evolved a diversity of antipredator strategies. Most research focuses on those strategies (crypsis, countershading, and warning coloration) targeting visually guided predators. In contrast, defensive sounds, although documented for more than a century, have been poorly studied. We report on a novel form of sound production—chirping—in caterpillars of the common European Great Peacock moth (Saturnia pyri). Chirps are broadband, with dominant peaks ranging between the sonic (3.7 kHz) and ultrasonic (55.1 kHz) and are generated by a rapid succession of mandibular “tooth strikes.” Chirp trains are induced by simulated predator attacks and precede or accompany the secretion of a defensive chemical from integumental bristles, supporting our hypothesis that these sounds function in acoustic aposematism. We propose that these caterpillars generate multimodal warning signals (visual, chemical, and acoustic) to target the dominant sensory modalities of different predators, including birds, bats, and invertebrates. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Correction to: Assessing local climate vulnerability and winegrowers’ adaptive processes in the context of climate change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Section 3.4.2: Reference “Nicholas and Durham 2012” should have been cited in the last sentence. That is “Using a list of...     

The water-energy-food nexus: Is the increasing attention warranted,from either a research or policy perspective?

In recent years, the notion of a nexus involving water, energy, and food has been gaining attention in the scholarly literature and popular press, due partly to the impetus provided by an international conference on the nexus in 2011, and partly to the increasing interest among researchers and public officials in determining the investments and policies needed to achieve and sustain water, energy, and food security. While the notion of such a nexus is compelling to some observers, interactions involving water, energy, and food have been known and studied for many years by scientists and policy analysts. The need for greater integration of research and policy discourse across sectors and regions has been expressed in international meetings since the late 1940s. In addition, the conceptual basis for including water, energy, and food in the “nexus,” to the exclusion of other resources and inputs is not evident. In many cases, the information excluded from studies claiming to implement a nexus approach might be of greater importance to science and policy than the information included in the analysis. In this paper, I review some of the experience gained in earlier attempts to enhance integration and policy coherence, and to promote systems analysis. The challenges observed in implementing programs of integrated natural resources management (INRM) and integrated water resources management (IWRM), in particular, suggest that efforts to implement a water-energy-food nexus approach will not enhance the policy process in all settings. In sum, it is not clear that the increasing attention given to studies claiming to implement a nexus approach is warranted.     

Application of the ‘Climafor’ Approach to Estimate Baseline Carbon Emissions of a Forest Conservation Project in the Selva Lacandona,Chiapas, Mexico

We present a methodology for testing and applying a regional baseline for carbon (C) emissions from land-use change, using a spatial modelling approach (hereafter called the Climafor approach). The methodology is based on an analysis of causal factors of previous land-use change (Castillo et al. 2005). Carbon risk matrices constructed from the spatial correlation analysis between observed deforestation and driving factors (Castillo et al. 2005), are used to estimate future carbonemissions within acceptable limits for a forest conservation project. The performance of two risk matrices were tested by estimating carbon emissions between 1975 and 1996 from randomly selected sample plots of sizes varying from 1,600 to 10,000 ha and comparing the results of the observed emissions from these sample plots with the model estimations. Expected emissions from continued land-use change was estimated for the community applying the risk matrices to the current land cover. The methodology provides an objective means of constructing baseline scenarios including confidence intervals, using the sum of variances of the various data sources, such as measured carbon densities, classification errors, errors in the risk matrices, and differences between the model prediction and observed emissions of sample plots due to sample size. The procedures applied in this study also give an indication of the impact of the variance in the various data sources on the size of the confidence intervals, which allows project developers to decide what data sources are essential to improve his baseline. The modelling approach to estimate the deforestation pattern is based on readily available cartographic and census data, whereas data on carbon densities are required to assess the potential for forest conservation projects to offset carbon emissions.