基于SPOT VGT/NDVI的陕西省关中地区冬小麦遥感估产

冬小麦是关中地区的主要粮食作物之一。对冬小麦产量估算的研究可使国家有关部门及时掌握粮食生产状况,对国家制定粮食政策和经济计划,及时进行宏观调控有着重要的意义。以陕西省关中地区为研究区域,利用1999—2007年的SPOT VGT/NDVI遥感数据对冬小麦产量进行预测。首先,选取冬小麦关键生长期内0.2—0.8范围内的旬NDVI数据,利用最大值合成法合成后的月NDVI数据建立与冬小麦产量之间的关系;其次,使用相关分析方法筛选出冬小麦关键期内与产量相关性较好的月份和旬,分别建立这些月份、旬与冬小麦产量之间的回归关系模型,最后对模型进行精度验证。结果显示,NDVI与产量之间有很好的相关性,其中4月上旬的相关性最好,其相关系数R2为0.605,即利用4月份上旬的数据预测冬小麦产量最好。在预测产量与实际产量对比的基础上,得出估产的相对误差为-5.2%—-7.9%,表明估产精度良好,可运用于冬小麦的实际估产。     

我国猕猴桃整形修剪技术

探讨了猕猴桃整形修剪在保持良好树形、促进生长发育、达到优质丰产方面的作用，介绍了我国猕猴桃整形修剪技术在整形架式、整形方法、修剪时间、修剪方法等方面的研究进展。     

Allometric models for the estimation of above- and below-ground biomass of Jatropha curcas L. in semi-arid regions of Southern India

Jatropha curcas L. (Jatropha) is an important multipurpose tree valued for oil. In India, plans are underway to bring substantial area under this crop for meeting the biofuel requirements of the country. A study was conducted to develop allometric relationships in Jatropha to predict various biomass-related components (above ground and below ground) using easily measurable attributes, viz. collar diameter, tree height, number of branches, crown diameter, and crown depth. Further, it was aimed to establish the reliability of these relationships using an independent dataset obtained from varied management situations. Destructive sampling was carried out during the rainy season of 2011, when Jatropha plants were eight years old. Highly significant allometric relationships (F-values significant at 1% level) were obtained while predicting various biomass components (above, below, and total) using easily measurable attributes with R² values ranging from 0.89 to 0.98. Of all the predictors, collar diameter exhibited a highly significant relationship with total dry biomass per plant (R² = 0.97). The allometric relationships developed were validated with an independent dataset. The allometric relationships developed would serve as valuable tools for estimating total dry biomass production and carbon sequestration with reasonable accuracy in Jatropha systems, as they are proposed to be taken up in substantial area in the years to come.     

LONG TERM TRENDS OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN JAPAN1

ABSTRACT: Long term trends in Japan's annual and monthly precipitation are investigated in this study. The statistical significance of a trend at a study site is assessed by the Mann‐Kendall (MK) test, and field significance of trends in climatic Regions II, III, and IV is evaluated using the bootstrap test preserving cross correlation. The practical significance of a trend is judged by a percentage change of the sample mean over an observation period. The field significance assessment demonstrates that annual precipitation in Region II did not show any significant change, but regional precipitation shifts occurred in different months. Precipitation significantly increased by 12.2 percent in May, while it significantly decreased by 12.0, 10.5, 15.6, and 19.7 percent, respectively, in April, September, October, and December. In Region III, annual precipitation declined by 11.8 percent, and monthly precipitation significantly decreased from September through January and in April, with the greatest decrease (38.2 percent) in December. In Region IV, significant reductions occurred in both annual precipitation (by 15.6 percent) and monthly precipitation from September through February and in June and July, with the worst reduction (44.7 percent) in December.     

Is there a Dutch disease in Botswana?

The Dutch disease is regularly evoked in the resource curse literature and remains a frequent explanation for the poor economic performance found in many resource-rich countries. Given Botswana's high rate of per capita GDP growth, it might seem superfluous at first glance to ask whether or not there is a Dutch disease in Botswana. Yet, Botswana merits study here both as a significant potential exception to any posited inevitability of the Dutch disease and also because the debate on whether or not Botswana has avoided the Dutch disease is far less settled than is indicated by its economic growth record. Botswana currently suffers from many of the symptoms of the Dutch disease but not for the causal reasons posited in the Dutch disease model. Indeed, many of the explanations for the lack of diversification found in Botswana's mineral-dependent economy have nothing to do with either diamond revenues or the Dutch disease. Botswana has done about as well managing its resource wealth as could realistically be expected but it is unlikely to succeed in diversifying its economy away from diamonds anytime soon.     

The Selebi-Phikwe Nickel/Copper Mine in Botswana

The development of the Selebi-Phikwe nickel/copper mine from its inception to the commencement of production and the role of the various parties in the financing of the project are described. The project was launched with every expectation of financial success by the Government of Botswana and the mining companies involved. Unfortunately, from the beginning it was plagued by technical difficulties which led to cost overruns and by falling nickel/copper prices which led to negative cash flows. Shortages of capital and cash flow difficulties necessitated three separate re-structurings of the financial package.     

A review of studies applying environmental impact assessment methods on fruit production systems

Although many aspects of environmental accounting methodologies in food production have already been investigated, the application of environmental indicators in the fruit sector is still rare and no consensus can be found on the preferred method. On the contrary, widely diverging approaches have been taken to several aspects of the analyses, such as data collection, handling of scaling issues, and goal and scope definition. This paper reviews studies assessing the sustainability or environmental impacts of fruit production under different conditions and identifies aspects of fruit production that are of environmental importance. Four environmental assessment methods which may be applied to assess fruit production systems are evaluated, namely Life Cycle Assessment, Ecological Footprint Analysis, Emergy Analysis and Energy Balance. In the 22 peer-reviewed journal articles and two conference articles applying one of these methods in the fruit sector that were included in this review, a total of 26 applications of environmental impact assessment methods are described. These applications differ concerning e.g. overall objective, set of environmental issues considered, definition of system boundaries and calculation algorithms. Due to the relatively high variability in study cases and approaches, it was not possible to identify any one method as being better than the others. However, remarks on methodologies and suggestions for standardisation are given and the environmental burdens of fruit systems are highlighted.     

MINERALS OBJECTIVES, POLICIES AND STRATEGIES IN BOTSWANA — ANALYSIS AND LESSONS

This article examines the present status of the minerals industry in Botswana and the effectiveness of that country's policies on minerals development and the achievement of national development goals. Botswana's mineral production increased (in constant 1979 dollars) from less than $1 million per year in the late 1960s to $300 million in 1979 and is expected to more than double by the mid-1980s. The author analyses the country's regime of mineral rights, the role of the private sector, negotiation of mining agreements and the implementation of national mineral exploration strategies. Cet article étudie l'état actuel de l'industrie minière au Botswana et l'efficacité de la politique suivie par ce pays dans la mise en valeur des ressources minérales. La production minière du Botswana est passée de moins de 1 million de dollars des E.U. par an au début des années 60 à environ 300 millions de dollars en 1979 (en dollars constants de 1979). L'auteur analyse la réglementation minière du pays, le rôle du secteur privé, la négociation des contrats de production et la législation concernant les droits d'exploration. L'auteur étudie ensuite ces résultats dans le contexte du développement national considéré dans son ensemble. Este artículo examina el estado actual de la indústria minera en Botswana y la efectividad de las políticas de desarrollo minero del país. La producción minera de Botswana aumentó (en dólares constantes de 1970) de menos de un millón de dólares por año al comienzo de la década del sesenta a 300 millones de dólares en 1979. El autor analiza el régimen del derecho sobre minerales del país, el rol del sector privado, la negociación de los contratos de producción y la organización de los derechos de exploración. El autor luego examina estos resultados dentro del contexto del desarrollo nacional.     

Spatial and Seasonal Variation of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Concentrations in Irish Streams: Importance of Soil and Topography Characteristics

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have increased in many sites in Europe and North America in recent decades. High DOC concentrations can damage the structure and functions of aquatic ecosystems by influencing water chemistry. This study investigated the spatial and seasonal variation of DOC concentrations in Irish streams across 55 sites at seven time occasions over 1 year (2006/2007). The DOC concentrations ranged from 0.9 to 25.9 mg/L with a mean value of 6.8 and a median value of 5.7 mg/L and varied significantly over the course of the year. The DOC concentrations from late winter (February: 5.2 ± 3.0 mg/L across 55 sites) and early spring (April: 4.5 ± 3.5 mg/L) had significantly lower DOC concentrations than autumn (October: mean 8.3 ± 5.6 mg/L) and early winter (December: 8.3 ± 5.1 mg/L). The DOC production sources (e.g., litterfall) or the accumulation of DOC over dry periods might be the driving factor of seasonal change in Irish stream DOC concentrations. Analysis of data using stepwise multiple linear regression techniques identified the topographic index (TI, an indication of saturation-excess runoff potential) and soil conditions (organic carbon content and soil drainage characteristics) as key factors in controlling DOC spatial variation in different seasons. The TI and soil carbon content (e.g., soil organic carbon; peat occurrence) are positively related to DOC concentrations, while well-drained soils are negatively related to DOC concentrations. The knowledge of spatial and seasonal variation of DOC concentrations in streams and their drivers are essential for optimum riverine water resources management.     

DRAINAGE GENERATION AND WATER USE IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) covers 2,850 km² in area and is characterized by high water table and organic soil. The area is actively irrigated and drained as a function of weather conditions and crop status. Anthropogenic activities in the basin have resulted in nutrient-enriched drainage water that is discharged to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Water quantity and quality issues of the basin have become of increasing interest at local, state, and federal levels, so legislative and regulatory measures have been taken to improve water quality in discharges from the basin. In this study, simulation of hydrologic conditions and soil moisture were conducted using 100 years of daily synthetic rainfall data. From the simulations, the statistical distribution of half-month drainage discharge and supplemental water use in the basin was developed. The mean annual drainage/runoff was 49 cm, the mean supplemental water was 30 cm, and the mean annual a real rainfall was 122 cm. On the average, drainage exceeded supplemental water use in the months of June to September while from December to March drainage and supplemental water use were equivalent. Supplemental water use exceeded drainage in the months of October, November, April, and May. High drainage occurred in June and September; smallest drainage was in February. On the average, the highest supplemental water use occurred in May and November. The 10-year return period of annual drainage during wet and dry cycles were 60 cm and 38 cm per year, respectively. The semi-monthly drainage coefficient of variation (cv) is above 100 percent for the period from the second half of October to end of April. The cv is lower than 100 percent for the remaining season (wet season). The purpose of this paper is to present the magnitude, temporal, and frequency distribution of drainage runoff generation and supplemental water use in the EAA basin. Information on statistics of drainage will contribute to the optimization of the design and operation of drainage water treatment systems.     

Major Energy Plants and Their Potential for Bioenergy Development in China

China is rich in energy plant resources. In this article, 64 plant species are identified as potential energy plants in China. The energy plant species include 38 oilseed crops, 5 starch-producing crops, 3 sugar-producing crops and 18 species for lignocellulosic biomass. The species were evaluated on the basis of their production capacity and their resistance to salt, drought, and/or low temperature stress. Ten plant species have high production and/or stress resistance and can be potentially developed as the candidate energy plants. Of these, four species could be the primary energy plants in China: Barbados nut (Jatropha curcas L.), Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus L.), sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) and Chinese silvergrass (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss.). We discuss the use of biotechnological techniques such as genome sequencing, molecular markers, and genetic transformation to improve energy plants. These techniques are being used to develop new cultivars and to analyze and manipulate genetic variation to improve attributes of energy plants in China.     

Conservation of indigenous plants to support community livelihoods: the MGU – Useful Plants Project

Through the MGU – Useful Plants Project (2007–2015) led by the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, high-quality seed collections and research information have been gathered on useful indigenous plants selected by communities in Botswana, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, and Mexico. Local communities were trained in seed conservation, plant propagation, and planting activities, while revenue generation was promoted directly through the sustainable use of plants and plant products and indirectly through wider environmental and cultural services. The success of this project was determined by its participative approach, involving local communities in plant conservation activities and using plant research to support it. However, the promotion of sustainable use and income generation highlighted issues that confirmed the importance of using a ‘holistic approach’ to address the objective of poverty reduction and contribute to improved livelihoods in the communities.     

Urban Environmental Management in Botswana: Toward a Theoretical Explanation ofPublic Policy Failure

For the last three and half decades, Botswana has been widely acclaimed to be one of sub-Saharan Africa's longest and most stable liberal democracies, coupled with and sustained by a growing economy. One of the major contradictions, however, within this development scenario, has been the neglect of environmental problems in the country in general, and urban environmental issues in particular. Part of the problem fueling the misconception of environmental issues in Botswana is the state's domination of the country's environmental agenda. This is linked to the power disjunction in decision-making and policy processes between state and nonstate actors over the most appropriate course of action to tackle the problems. Without adopting appropriate analytical frameworks, it is possible that the problem of urban environmental mismanagement in Botswana will persist. This article examines some of the major urban environmental issues in Botswana from neighborhood, citywide, and urban–rural interface perspectives. Further, the elite theory of public policy is used to explain constraints on policy change in the urban environmental management arena in Botswana.     

Comparison of jatropha and karanja biofuels on their combustion characteristics

Biofuel blends produced from Jatropha (Jatropha curcas) and Karanja (Pongamia pinnata) oil were evaluated for their combustion properties. Two kinds of blends (regular diesel with Jatropha and Karanja oil) were prepared at 20% volume to the diesel and tested as alternative fuels in single cylinder (vertical), water-cooled, direct injection diesel engine at the rated speed of 1500 rpm. The performance of the engine in terms of thermal efficiency at full load for diesel was 30%. For Jatropha and Karanja biodiesel blends, the thermal efficiencies were 29.0% and 28.6%, respectively. The maximum cylinder pressure and ignition delay for biodiesel fuel blends are very close to that of regular diesel. Prolonged combustion was observed for Karanja oil blend in comparison to Jatropha oil blend. The combustion pattern also reveals the slow burning characteristics of vegetable oils and this study indicates that the blended biofuels have combustion characteristics that are similar to regular diesel fuels.     

Promoting environmental awareness in Botswana: the role of community education

Summary This paper highlights the environmental problems confronting Botswana, which include growing pressure on water resources resulting from increases in population, urbanization and development, deforestation, overgrazing and rangeland degradation in the face of unfavourable environmental and climatic conditions. The paper also describes the role of the government through its National Conservation Strategy, and how this proffers possible solutions to these probems. Such solutions include, among others improved planning and administrative measures in the interest of both protecting water resources against pollution and the possible introduction of an incentive to encourage the collection of rain water, and government legislation which will lead to improvement in the management of both rangelands and livestock to prevent rangeland degradation, as well as the government intention to update its forestry policy to provide a comprehensive National Forestry Management Plan. The paper also examines the efforts of nongovernmental organizations including the Kalahari Conservation Society, the Forestry Association of Botswana, Thusano Lefatsheng and the Botswana Society. These non-governmental organizations are greatly involved in natural resource conservation and utilization and, in addition, they provide avenues for the discussion of issues relating to the environment and natural resources for public awareness. The paper finally discusses the role of community education, by examining the environmental awareness in terms of the population.This paper was presented at the Global Forum '94 Academic Conference, Manchester, UK.     

Intensive olive orchards on sloping land: good water and pest management are essential

There is intensive cultivation of olives on sloping land in Jaen-Granada (Spain), Basilicata (Italy) and Western Crete (Greece). The intensive olive groves here are characterised by a tree density of about 250treesha(-1), yearly fertilisation and pruning, several chemical sprays for pest control, soil tillage once to thrice per year and irrigation up to 2700m(3)ha(-1)yr(-1). Intensive management results in high yields of 3600-6500kgha(-1) but also higher labour costs of 1154-1590euroha(-1)yr(-1), varying per area. The major environmental concerns in this system are related to chemical residues in the fruit, the extinction of useful insects, the depletion of groundwater resources, the pollution of soil and water and the erosion of soil. This paper describes the impact of intensive orchard management on natural resources and gives recommendations for soil and water conservation, reduction of chemicals use and biodiversity enhancement. The specific recommendations for the relevant stakeholders-farmers, technicians, agricultural services and policy makers-are based on the experimental evaluation of different agricultural practices and a socio-economic analysis of local and global production and markets.     

Changes in resident attitudes towards tourism development and conservation in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Negative attitudes of resident communities towards conservation are associated with resource decline in developing countries. In Botswana, Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) was adopted to address this challenge. CBNRM links rural development and conservation. However, the impact of CBNRM on changes of resident attitudes towards conservation and tourism is not adequately researched. This paper, therefore, assesses the impacts of CBNRM on resident attitudes towards tourism development and conservation in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. The study purposively sampled villages of Khwai, Mababe and Sankoyo. Household data using variables like: economic benefits from CBNRM; level of satisfaction with CBNRM; co-management of natural resources between resident communities and government agencies; and collective action was collected. This data was supplemented by secondary and ethnographic data. Using qualitative and quantitative analysis, results indicate changes in resident attitudes from being negative to positive towards tourism and conservation. These changes are triggered by economic benefits residents derived from CBNRM, co-management in resource management; and, collective action of communities in CBNRM development. Positive attitudes towards conservation and tourism are the first building blocks towards achieving conservation in nature-based tourism destinations. As a result, decision-makers should give priority to CBNRM and use it as a tool to achieve conservation and improved livelihoods in nature-based tourism destinations of developing countries.     

MODELED REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HYDROLOGIC REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA: A CO2 SENSITIVITY STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Using a regional climate model (RegCM2.5), the potential impacts on the climate of California of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were explored from the perspective of the state's 10 hydrologic regions. Relative to preindustrial CO₂ conditions (280 ppm), doubled preindustrial CO₂ conditions (560 ppm) produced increased temperatures of up to 4°C on an annual average basis and of up to 5°C on a monthly basis. Temperature increases were greatest in the central and northern regions. On a monthly basis, the temperature response was greatest in February, March, and May for nearly all regions. Snow accumulation was significantly decreased in all months and regions, with the greatest reduction occurring in the Sacramento River region. Precipitation results indicate drier winters for all regions, with a large reduction in precipitation from December to April and a smaller decrease from May to November. The result is a wet season that is slightly reduced in length. Findings suggest that the total amount of water in the state will decrease, water needs will increase, and the timing of water availability will be greatly perturbed.     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

The effect of river pulsing on sedimentation and nutrients in created riparian wetlands

Sedimentation under pulsed and steady-flow conditions was investigated in two created flow-through riparian wetlands in central Ohio over 2 yr. Hydrologic pulses of river water lasting for 6 to 8 d were imposed on each wetland from January through June during 2004. Mean inflow rates during pulses averaged 52 and 7 cm d(-1) between pulses. In 2005, the wetlands received a steady-flow regime of 11 cm d(-1) with no major hydrologic fluctuations. Thirty-two sediment traps were deployed and sampled once per month in April, May, June, and July for two consecutive years in each wetland. January through March were not sampled in either year due to frozen water surfaces in the wetlands. Gross sedimentation (sedimentation without normalizing for differences between years) was significantly greater in the pulsing study period (90 kg m(-2)) than in the steady-flow study period (64 kg m(-2)). When normalized for different hydrologic and total suspended solid inputs between years, sedimentation for April through July was not significantly different between pulsing and steady-flow study periods. Sedimentation for the 3 mo that received hydrologic pulses (April, May, and June) was significantly lower during pulsing months than in the corresponding steady-flow months. Large fractions of inorganic matter in collected sediments indicated that allochthonous inputs were the main contributor to sedimentation in these wetlands. Organic matter fractions of collected sediments were consistently greater in the steady-flow study period (1.8 g kg(-1)) than in the pulsed study period (1.5 g kg(-1)), consistent with greater primary productivity in the water column during steady-flow conditions.