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S. V. R. K. Prabhakar Ancha Srinivasan Rajib Shaw 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2009,14(1):7-33
The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this
paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts.
It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that
reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions
under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to
start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking,
which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk
reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’
to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level. 相似文献
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Asbjørn Aaheim Ranjith Gopalakrishnan Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi N. H. Ravindranath Anitha D. Sagadevan Nitasha Sharma Taoyuan Wei 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(2):229-245
We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of
forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model
IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India.
By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we
find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The
increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones
with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due
to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given
other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As
a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may
induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two
effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest
demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost
of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass
growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result. 相似文献
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Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review. 相似文献
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Louis V. Verchot Meine Van Noordwijk Serigne Kandji Tom Tomich Chin Ong Alain Albrecht Jens Mackensen Cynthia Bantilan K. V. Anupama Cheryl Palm 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):901-918
Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence
agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change.
While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also
has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation
potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation
that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude
with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation
to climate change. 相似文献
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Climate change adaptation in the ski industry 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Daniel Scott Geoff McBoyle 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(8):1411-1431
Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around
the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture,
water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has
received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism
operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry.
This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry
and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate
adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations
and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the
highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate
change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing
climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper
and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate
adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained. 相似文献
8.
Institutions play an important role in the adaptive capacity of a system in responding to climate change. This review paper
characterizes the status of the collective institutional response (government, industry, First Nation, community, civil society)
to climate change in the forest sector of the Canadian province of Ontario, and highlights the presence and nature of inter-institutional
networks as part of the response. Based on a synthesis of the commonalities in the public administration and policy literature
on tackling wicked problems, and the resilience literature, inter-institutional networks, which foster exchange of different
types of knowledge, are an important aspect of enhancing the adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems such as the forest
sector. Based on a content analysis of publicly available documents and insights gained from representatives of government,
community members and non-governmental organizations, mitigation and adaptations strategies are described. At the provincial
level there have been some new innovations in inter-institutional networks, but expansion of the forest stakeholders involved
in such networks would further enhance adaptive capacity. In particular, it is important to network with First Nations and
other forest-dependent communities who have a heightened vulnerability to climate change. The presence of a collaborative
capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build
long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in the Ontario forest sector.
相似文献
H. Carolyn Peach BrownEmail: |
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Christoph Oberlack 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(5):805-838
Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion. 相似文献
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Stacy-ann Robinson 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2017,22(4):669-691
Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the countries in the world that are most vulnerable to climate change and required to adapt to its impacts. Yet, there is little information in the academic literature about how SIDS are adapting to climate change, across multiple countries and geographic regions. This paper helps to fill this gap. Using a sample of 16 countries across the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and South China Sea, Caribbean and Pacific regions, this study has two main aims, to identify (1) national-level adaptation trends across climate, climate-induced and non-climate-induced vulnerabilities, sectors and actors, as reported in National Communications (NCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and (2) typologies of national-level adaptation actions in SIDS. It identifies, codes and assesses 977 adaptation actions. These actions were reported as addressing 47 climate and climate-induced vulnerabilities and 50 non-climate-induced vulnerabilities and were undertaken in 37 sectors by 34 actors. The paper proposes five typologies of adaptation actions for SIDS, based on actions reported by SIDS. It specifically explores the implications of its findings for global adaptation strategies. As this work establishes a baseline of adaptation action in SIDS, it can assist national governments to gauge their adaptation progress, identify gaps in their adaptation effort and, thereafter, develop appropriate strategies for filling the gaps. It can also assist donors, whether bilateral or multilateral, to make more ‘climate-smart’ investment decisions by being able to identify the adaptation needs that are not being met in SIDS. 相似文献
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Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. However, there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study develops and applies a framework to track urban climate change adaptation policy using municipal adaptation reporting. From 401 local governments globally in urban areas with >1 m people, we find that only 61 cities (15%) report any adaptation initiatives, and 73 cities (18%) report on planning towards adaptation policy. We classified cities based on their adaptation reporting as extensive adaptors, moderate adaptors, early stage adaptors, and non-reporting. With few exceptions, extensive adaptors are large cities located in high-income countries in North America, Europe, and Oceania, and are adapting to a variety of expected impacts. Moderate adaptors usually address general disaster risk reduction rather than specific impacts, and are located in a mix of developed and developing countries. Early stage adaptors exhibit evidence of planning for adaptation, but do not report any initiatives. Our findings suggest that urban adaptation is in the early stages, but there are still substantive examples of governments taking leadership regardless of wealth levels and institutional barriers. 相似文献
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Climate change impact, mitigation and adaptation strategies for agricultural and water resources, in Ganga Plain (India) 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Anil Kumar Misra 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2013,18(5):673-689
Agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of global fresh water out of which 90 % is used by developing countries. Freshwater consumption worldwide is expected to rise another 25 %by 2030 due to increase in population from 6.6 billion currently to about 8 billion by 2030 and over 9 billion by 2050. Worldwide climate change and variability are affecting water resources and agricultural production and in India Ganga Plain region is one of them. Hydroclimatic changes are very prominent in all the regions of Ganga Plain. Climate change and variability impacts are further drying the semi-arid areas and may cause serious problem of water and food scarcity for about 250 million people of the area. About 80 million ha out of total 141 million ha net cultivated area of India is rainfed, which contributes approximately 44 % of total food production has been severely affected by climate change. Further changing climatic conditions are causing prominent hydrological variations like change in drainage density, river morphology (tectonic control) & geometry, water quality and precipitation. Majority of the river channels seen today in the Ganga Plain has migrated from their historic positions. Large scale changes in land use and land cover pattern, cropping pattern, drainage pattern and over exploitation of water resources are modifying the hydrological cycle in Ganga basin. The frequency of floods and drought and its intensity has increased manifold. Ganga Plain rivers has changed their course with time and the regional hydrological conditions shows full control over the rates and processes by which environments geomorphically evolve. Approximately 47 % of total irrigated area of the country is located in Ganga Plain, which is severely affected by changing climatic conditions. In long run climate change will affect the quantity and quality of the crops and the crop yield is going to be down. This will increase the already high food inflation in the country. The warmer atmospheric temperatures and drought conditions will increase soil salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifer, while flooding conditions will escalate soil erosion, soil degradation and sedimentation. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of different hydrological changes due to climatic conditions and come up with easily and economically feasible solutions effective in addressing the problem of water and food scarcity in future. 相似文献
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To prepare agricultural systems for climate change, scientists need to be able to effectively engage with land managers and policy makers to explore potential solutions. An ongoing challenge in engagement is to distil the complexity of climate-change-management-change interactions in agro-ecological systems to identify responses that are most important for adaptation planning. This paper presents an approach for selecting climate change scenarios to provide a focal point for engaging with stakeholders to evaluate adaptation options and communicate assessment outcomes. We illustrate how scenarios selected with the approach can be used by evaluating climate change impacts and an adaptation option for livestock industries in the north-east Australian rangelands. Climate change impacts on forage production, animal liveweight gain and soil loss are found to track projected climate changes in four pasture communities; increasing by up to 50% and declining by up to 110% in response to doubled atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO2), 4°C warming, and +20% to ?40% changes in mean annual rainfall. The effectiveness of reducing grazing pressure as an adaptation option shows a similar response; resulting in higher forage production (up to 40%), animal liveweight gains (up to 59%) and gross margins (up to 40%), and reduced soil erosion (down by 91%) per hectare relative to the baseline management. The results show that a few key scenarios may be selected to represent the range of global climate model (GCM) projections for use in assessing and communicating impacts and adaptation; simplifying the assessments and allowing limits to the effectiveness of adaptation options to be explored. The approach provides a framework for capturing and communicating trends in climate change impacts and the utility of options, which are required for successful engagement of stakeholders in finding viable adaption responses. 相似文献
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《Environmental Science & Policy》2008,11(1):87-96
The distribution of overall temperature and the frequency of heat waves may be shifting due to climate change. However, forecasting future health consequences of higher temperatures in a given city is complicated by uncertainties in how populations and societal infrastructure will adapt. This paper reviews approaches to address these challenges, including: (1) using historical weather–mortality relationships for the same region, or a location with a similar climate as the city of interest; (2) evaluating adaptation using the minimum mortality threshold (MMT) temperature (i.e., the temperature with the lowest mortality rate); and (3) estimating the impact of modifiers (e.g., air conditioning, population density, green space) on the temperature and mortality relation, and then predicting a range of effects based on plausible estimates for the future values of these parameters in a given city. Each approach can provide insight into how heat could affect mortality under a changing climate, but all have uncertainties. In spite of these limitations, projecting the future public health burden of temperature-related health effects can provide valuable information to aid public health and environmental authorities in planning and communicating the risks of climate change to the public. 相似文献
16.
Recent interest in sustainable forest management planning in the Yukon has coincided with growing public awareness of climate
change, providing an opportunity to explore how forestry plans are incorporating climate change. In this paper, the Strategic
Forest Management Plans for the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations Traditional Territory (CATT) and the Teslin Tlingit Traditional
Territory (TTTT) are examined for evidence of adaptation to climate change. For each plan, management policies and practices
that are also recognized as ways to adapt to climate change are identified to provide information on the incremental costs
and benefits of additional adaptation efforts. A typology for classifying sustainable forest management plans according to
how they address climate change is proposed and applied to the CATT and TTTT plans. This typology, which may be useful to
any future retrospective assessments on how successful these or other sustainable forest management plans have been in addressing
and managing the risks posed by climate change, consists of a matrix that categorizes plans into one of four types; (1) proactive-direct,
(2) proactive-indirect, (3) reactive-direct, and (4) reactive-indirect. Neither of the plans available for the southern Yukon
explicitly identifies climate change vulnerabilities and actions that will be taken to reduce those vulnerabilities and manage
risks. However, both plans have incorporated some examples of ‘best management practices’ for sustainable forest management
that are also consistent with appropriate climate adaptation responses. Even in a jurisdiction facing rapid ecological changes
driven by climate change, where there is a relatively high level of awareness of climate change and its implications, forestry
planning processes have yet to grapple directly with the risks that climate change may pose to the ability of forest managers
to achieve the stated goals and objectives of sustainable forest management plans.
相似文献
J. L. InnesEmail: |
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Bruce A. McCarl Mark Musumba Joel B. Smith Paul Kirshen Russell Jones Akram El-Ganzori Mohamed A. Ali Mossad Kotb Ibrahim El-Shinnawy Mona El-Agizy Mohamed Bayoumi Riina Hynninen 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2015,20(7):1097-1109
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Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Marco Moriondo Marco Bindi Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz M. Szwed A. Chorynski P. Matczak M. Radziejewski D. McEvoy Anita Wreford 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(7):657-679
Climate change, involving changes in mean climate and climatic variability, is expected to severely affect agriculture and
there is a need to assess its impact in order to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with. In this paper,
we projected a scenario of European agriculture in a +2°C (above pre-industrial levels) world in order to assess the potential
effect of climatic change and variability and to test the effectiveness of different adaptation options. For this purpose,
the outputs of HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were empirically downscaled for current climate (1975–2005) and a future
period (2030–2060), to feed a process-based crop simulation model, in order to quantify the impact of a changing climate on
agriculture emphasising the impact due to changes in the frequency of extreme events (heat waves and drought). The same climatic
dataset was used to compare the effectiveness of different adaptations to a warmer climate strategies including advanced or
delayed sowing time, shorter or longer cycle cultivar and irrigation. The results indicated that both changes in mean climate
and climate variability affected crop growth resulting in different crop fitting capacity to cope with climate change. This
capacity mainly depended on the crop type and the geographical area across Europe. A +2°C scenario had a higher impact on
crops cultivated over the Mediterranean basin than on those cultivated in central and northern Europe as a consequence of
drier and hotter conditions. In contrast, crops cultivated in Northern Europe generally exhibited higher than current yields,
as a consequence of wetter conditions, and temperatures closer to the optimum growing conditions. Simple, no-cost adaptation
options such as advancement of sowing dates or the use of longer cycle varieties may be implemented to tackle the expected
yield loss in southern Europe as well as to exploit possible advantages in northern regions. 相似文献
19.
Mariko Fujisawa Kazuhiko Kobayashi 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(8):865-877
By an interview survey with apple growers in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, we found that their recognition of and reaction to climate change depends on their sales channels. Against rising air temperature, more farmers on direct sales (Type D farmers) than those on sales via the markets (Type M farmers) recognized the delay in fruit maturity as the effect of climate change, specifically temperature rise, (Type D: 62%, Type M: 15%). In response to the delay in maturity, Type D farmers simply delayed the harvest to full maturity by about 10 days than they did 20 years ago. On the other hand, Type M farmers recognized delayed reddening of the fruits as the most salient result of climate change (Type D: 8%, Type M: 46%), and took measures to accelerate the coloring by placing reflective materials on ground and/or picking off leaves around the fruits. The contrasting behaviors can be explained by the difference in the critical trait of the products. For Type M farmers, timing of the shipment is critical to avoid competition with shipments from other apple growing areas, and the good coloring is the prerequisite for the shipment. For Type D farmers, by contrast, full maturity is more important than coloring, since their contract with the customers hinges on the palatability of the fruits rather than the timing. This study has thus identified positioning of the farmers with the sales channel as a determinant in their adaptation behavior and vulnerability to climatic changes. 相似文献
20.
Livia Bizikova Erica Crawford Maria Nijnik Rob Swart 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2014,19(4):411-430
This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations—especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society—has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities. 相似文献