Food security and global environmental change: emerging challenges

Most research linking global environmental change and food security focuses solely on agriculture: either the impact of climate change on agricultural production, or the impact of agriculture on the environment, e.g. on land use, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and/or biodiversity. Important though food production is, many other factors also need to be considered to understand food security. A recent international conference on “Environmental Change and Food Security: Bridging Science, Policy and Development for Adaptation” included a range of papers that embraced the multiple dimensions of the food systems that underpin food security. The major conclusion from the conference was that technical fixes alone will not solve the food security challenge. Adapting to the additional threats to food security arising from major environmental changes requires an integrated food system approach, not just a focus on agricultural practices. Six key issues emerged for future research: (i) adapting food systems to global environmental change requires more than just technological solutions to increase agricultural yields; (ii) tradeoffs across multiple scales among food system outcomes are a pervasive feature of globalized food systems; (iii) within food systems, there are some key underexplored areas that are both sensitive to environmental change but also crucial to understanding its implications for food security and adaptation strategies; (iv) scenarios specifically designed to investigate the wider issues that underpin food security and the environmental consequences of different adaptation options are lacking; (v) price variability and volatility often threaten food security; and (vi) more attention needs to be paid to the governance of food systems.     

Matching national forest policies and management practices for climate change adaptation in Burkina Faso and Ghana

Many studies have suggested various kinds of forest policies, management planning and practices to help forests adapt to climate change. These recommendations are often generic, based mostly on case studies from temperate countries and rarely from Africa. We argue that policy and management recommendations aimed at integrating adaptation into national forest policies and practices in Africa should start with an inventory and careful examination of existing policies and practices in order to understand the nature and extent of intervention required to influence the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change. This paper aims to contribute to closing this gap in knowledge detrimental to decision making through the review and analysis of current forest policies and practices in Burkina Faso and Ghana and highlighting elements that have the potential to influence the adaptation of forest ecosystems to climate change. The analysis revealed that adaptation (and mitigation) are not part of current forest policies in Burkina Faso and Ghana, but instead policies contain elements of risk management practices which are also relevant to the adaptation of forest ecosystems. Some of these elements are found in policies on the management of forest fires, forest genetic resources, non-timber resources, tree regeneration and silvicultural practices. To facilitate and enhance the management of these elements, a number of recommendations are suggested. Their implementation will require experienced and well-trained forestry personnel, financial resources, socio-cultural and political dimensions, and the political will of decision makers to act appropriately by formulating necessary policies and mainstreaming adaptation into forest policy and management planning.     

Addressing human security in the Arctic in the context of climate change through science and technology

Human security, particularly in the Arctic, is being stressed by climate change and other factors. Science and technology provide one instrument for the development of strategies that will protect those living in the Arctic from threats to environmental, social and economic conditions, namely human security, incurred by climate change. This paper explores a public good approach to Canada’s Science and Technology (S&T) strategy. Investigated in particular is the role of science and technology in addressing Arctic human security needs, using evolving Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) quality-of-life indicators to measure the ability of Canada’s S&T strategy to meet these needs.     

Towards an inter-disciplinary research agenda on climate change, water and security in Southern Europe and neighboring countries

The Mediterranean and neighboring countries are already experiencing a broad range of natural and man-made threats to water security. According to climate projections, the region is at risk due to its pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. Such changes are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on key strategic sectors of regional economies. Related developments have an increased capacity to exacerbate tensions, and even intra- and inter-state conflict among social, political, ecological and economic actors. Thus, effective adaptation and prevention policy measures call for multi-disciplinary analysis and action.This review paper presents the current state-of-the-art on research related to climate change impacts upon water resources and security from an ecological, economic and social angle. It provides perspectives for current and upcoming research needs and describes the challenges and potential of integrating and clustering multi-disciplinary research interests in complex and interwoven human-environment systems and its contribution to the upcoming 5th assessment report of the IPCC.     

Bamboo in climate change and rural livelihoods

Climate change negotiations, assessments, and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines have all but bypassed bamboo. Disallowing stands of tree-like bamboos as forests disparages their function in the carbon (C) cycle, and disregards pillars of smallholder livelihoods. Exposing bamboo not as a panacea, but as an overlooked option for C conservation, sequestration, and adaptation, we screen details of distribution, morphology, growth, physiology, and impacts for pertinence to climate change. Additional to 40 million hectares of existing bamboo forests, many potential host countries for C projects harbor suitable sites. Definitions, methods and default values, such as the root/shoot- ratio, biomass conversion factors, allometric equations and sampling variables need adjusting. Rapid maturation, persistent rhizomes, a rich palette of species, and wind-firmness may mitigate risk. Bamboos can accommodate agro-and urban forestry, and reign in unsustainable shifting cultivation. Distribution functions of bamboo biomass stocks and growths do not deviate drastically from those of trees. If anything, bamboo stocks are slightly lower, and growths slightly higher, with medians of 87 t*ha⁻¹ and 10.5 t*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, respectively. However, bamboo’s outstanding socio-economic effects might well determine its future in mitigation and adaptation. Early, continuous yields, selective harvesting on even small parcels of land, low capital and high labor intensity, virtually 100% conversion efficiency to about 1,500 products, and, typically, 75% of economic returns benefiting rural people are advantageous attributes. Regional studies on suitability, silviculture, yields, economics, risk, and C assessment would strengthen bamboo’s function as ‘the poor man’s timber’ and promote its niche as the smallholder’s C sink.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

The neurobiology of climate change

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals’ environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals’ interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.     

Space-time discounting in climate change adaptation

Discounting is traditionally interpreted as the technique for comparing the values of costs and benefits which occur at different points in time. It endeavors to incorporate how humans trade off values to be received in the future versus value received immediately into economic analysis. Interpreted as such, discounting neglects important spatial influences on how values are compared, thereby hindering cost-benefit analyses of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present new theory on space-time discounting and use it to analyze aspects of how humans adapt to climate change. Three climate change adaptation cases are considered. First, analysis of crop indemnity payments to farmers shows that failure to discount across space and time yields inaccurate evaluations of adaptation projects. Second, adaptation efforts of the Commonwealth of Nations show irregular patterns of international cooperation that suggest spatial discounting of adaptation which are not found in temporal discounting. Third, the nexus between climate change, migration, and conflict shows how various forms of space-time discounting can influence whether climate change and migration will lead to conflict. Collectively, these cases demonstrate the analytical power of the space-time discounting theory and also show how the complexity of climate change adaptation can challenge and strengthen this theory. Finally, this article’s analysis demonstrates that proper discounting must include space as well as time.     

The economics of climate change in agriculture

This paper presents a conceptual frameworkof the impact of climate change onagriculture. It assumes that climatechange will result in a fertilizationeffect and a shift of agro-ecologicalconditions away from the Equator towardsthe Poles. The agro-ecological shift islikely to reduce yield because of reducedacreage and the fertilization effect willincrease yield. The aggregate effectdepends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may beless significant than its distributionaleffects and the results are consistentwith previous empirical studies. Theimpact of climate change depends on itspace. Faster changes in climate willresult in higher cost. The assessment ofthe cost has to consider that climatechange is a dynamic phenomenon that mayrequire continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizesconservation may increase cost ofadjustment and environmental policiesshould emphasize adaptation andflexibility.     

能源与气候变化挑战——荷兰皇家壳牌集团的探索

能源挑战我们知道,为了避免气候变化带来最恶劣的影响,人类必须在2050年以前实现全球二氧化碳排放量减半.然而,应对气候变化的措施必须同时兼顾人口增长、经济发展和能源需求迅猛增长等因素.从2000年到2050年,随着全球人口从70亿增长到90亿,加上非经合组织国家的经济持续高速发展,全球能源需求可能会翻一番.我们面临着前所未有的能源和气候变化挑战.即使全球采取强有力的措施来提高能效,我们预计到2050年以前,全球还是会出现一个巨大的能源缺口,其规模大概相当于2000年全球能源行业的总产量.     

全球气候变化政策的多哈站

本次气候大会的有限进展和成果可归结为两个关键词:差距(Gap),是政治承诺和科学发现的差距,是当前承诺离实现两度温控目标的差距,是会议成果与公众和社会期待的差距;脱节(Disconnect),是美、日、加、俄、新等国家和京都二期的脱节,是现实绿色气候基金与兑现每年1000亿美元融资的脱节,是谈判进程缓慢与气候变化加剧所需的快速行动的脱节。     

Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particular attention to the management of natural resources and agricultural activities. In most of these countries such as Cameroon, forest can play important role in achieving broader climate change adaptation goals. However, forest generally receives very little attention in national development programme and strategies such as policy dialogues on climate change and poverty reduction strategies. Using a qualitative approach to data collection through content analysis of relevant Cameroon policy documents, the integration of climate change adaptation was explored and the level of attention given to forests for adaptation analysed. Results indicate that, with the exception of the First National Communication to UNFCCC that focused mostly on mitigation and related issues, current policy documents in Cameroon are void of tangible reference to climate change, and hence failing in drawing the relevance of forest in sheltering populations from the many projected impacts of climate change. Policies related to forest rely on a generalized concept of sustainable forest management and do not identify the specific changes that need to be incorporated into management strategies and policies towards achieving adaptation. The strategies and recommendations made in those documents only serve to improve understanding of Cameroon natural resources and add resilience to the natural systems in coping with anthropogenic stresses. The paper draws attention to the need to address the constraints of lack of awareness and poor flow of information on the potentials of forests for climate change adaptation. It highlights the need for integrating forest for adaptation into national development programmes and strategies, and recommends a review of the existing environmental legislations and their implications on poverty reduction strategy and adaptation to climate change.     

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed.     

Agricultural adaptation of climate change in China.

This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources.     

Institutional dynamics and climate change adaptation in South Africa

Climate change is a multi-dimensional issue and in terms of adaptation numerous state and non-state actors are involved from global to national and local scales. The aim of this paper is first to analyse specific institutional networks involved in climate change predominantly at the national level in South Africa and second to determine how different stakeholders perceive their role vis-a-vis climate change adaptation. Within the South African context there is a gap in understanding and evaluating how institutional networks operate and thus the findings of this work may help inform and strengthen such relationships in the future. Results showed that few institutions fully understand the implications of adaptation and their roles and responsibilities have not yet been properly defined. Constraints relating to capacity, lack of awareness and poor information flow need to be addressed. Climate change is perceived as an important issue although problems such as poverty reduction and job creation remain national priorities. Most importantly this research has demonstrated how adaptation challenges the hierarchical manner in which government works and a more collaborative approach to climate change adaptation is needed. Adaptation needs to be mainstreamed and institutional networks need to be strengthened in order for adaptation mechanisms to be effectively implemented.