Shifting cultivation, forest fallow, and externalities in ecosystem services: Evidence from the Eastern Amazon

This study examines the value of fallow ecosystem services in shifting cultivation, including hydrological externalities that may affect other farms. Using farm-level survey data from the Brazilian Amazon, I estimate a production function to assess the value of forest fallow and test whether it provides local externalities to agricultural production. Soil quality controls, instrumental variables, and spatial econometric approaches help address endogeneity issues. I use GIS data on external forest cover at the farm level and model the hydrological externality as an upstream-to-downstream process. The estimated parameters indicate that fallow contributes significantly to productivity both on farm and downstream. In addition, most farms allocate sufficient land to fallow, accounting for both the value of hydrological spillovers and the opportunity cost of land left out of cultivation. These results suggest that farming communities may have some self-interest in preserving forest cover locally—a finding that may bolster policy efforts aimed at conserving tropical forests for their global public goods.     

Expansion of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil: environmental and social challenges.

Several geopolitical factors, aggravated by worries of global warming, have been fueling the search for and production of renewable energy worldwide for the past few years. Such demand for renewable energy is likely to benefit the sugarcane ethanol industry in Brazil, not only because sugarcane ethanol has a positive energetic balance and relatively low production costs, but also because Brazilian ethanol has been successfully produced and used as biofuel in the country since the 1970s. However, environmental and social impacts associated with ethanol production in Brazil can become important obstacles to sustainable biofuel production worldwide. Atmospheric pollution from burning of sugarcane for harvesting, degradation of soils and aquatic systems, and the exploitation of cane cutters are among the issues that deserve immediate attention from the Brazilian government and international societies. The expansion of sugarcane crops to the areas presently cultivated for soybeans also represent an environmental threat, because it may increase deforestation pressure from soybean crops in the Amazon region. In this paper, we discuss environmental and social issues linked to the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil for ethanol production, and we provide recommendations to help policy makers and the Brazilian government establish new initiatives to produce a code for ethanol production that is environmentally sustainable and economically fair. Recommendations include proper planning and environmental risk assessments for the expansion of sugarcane to new regions such as Central Brazil, improvement of land use practices to reduce soil erosion and nitrogen pollution, proper protection of streams and riparian ecosystems, banning of sugarcane burning practices, and fair working conditions for sugarcane cutters. We also support the creation of a more constructive approach for international stakeholders and trade organizations to promote sustainable development for biofuel production in developing countries such as Brazil. Finally, we support the inclusion of environmental values in the price of biofuels in order to discourage excessive replacement of natural ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, and pasture by bioenergy crops.     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

Conservation of the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract:  The Cerrado is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. In the last 35 years, more than 50% of its approximately 2 million km² has been transformed into pasture and agricultural lands planted in cash crops. The Cerrado has the richest flora among the world's savannas (>7000 species) and high levels of endemism. Species richness of birds, fishes, reptiles, amphibians, and insects is equally high, whereas mammal diversity is relatively low. Deforestation rates have been higher in the Cerrado than in the Amazon rainforest, and conservation efforts have been modest: only 2.2% of its area is under legal protection. Numerous animal and plant species are threatened with extinction, and an estimated 20% of threatened and endemic species do not occur in protected areas. Soil erosion, the degradation of the diverse Cerrado vegetation formations, and the spread of exotic grasses are widespread and major threats. The use of fire for clearing land and to encourage new growth for pasture has also caused damage, even though the Cerrado is a fire-adapted ecosystem. Ecosystem experiments and modeling show that change in land cover is altering the hydrology and affecting carbon stocks and fluxes. Cerrado agriculture is lucrative, and agricultural expansion is expected to continue, requiring improvements in and extension of the transportation infrastructure, which will affect not only the Cerrado but also the Amazon forest. Large-scale landscape modification and threats to numerous species have led to renewed interest from various sectors in promoting the conservation of the Cerrado, particularly through strengthening and enlarging the system of protected areas and improving farming practices and thus the livelihoods of local communities.     

A confirmation of the indirect impact of sugarcane on deforestation in the Amazon

A widely discussed assumption that the expansion of sugarcane indirectly contributes to deforestation in Brazil has been backed statistically by only a handful of studies. The present research measures the indirect effect of sugarcane in Brazil’s frontier counties as a weighted summation of changes in sugarcane area in agricultural (non-frontier) counties, where weights are constructed using road distances and the bandwidth that minimizes overall model error. In addition to economic variables, indirect effect variables are employed to create a model that explains deforestation. Parameters are estimated following fixed-effects methodology. The results reveal that sugarcane indirectly contributed to deforestation in Brazil during the period from 2002 to 2012. The effect was estimated to be sizeable; in particular, 16.3 thousand km² of forest was cut by economic actors displaced by expanding sugarcane plantations. This figure constitutes 12.2% of deforestation in Brazil from 2002 to 2012 and is equivalent to 189.4 million Mg of carbon emissions.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

Mapping and evaluating sugarcane expansion in Brazil’s savanna using MODIS and intensity analysis: a case-study from the state of Tocantins

In Brazil, the main biofuel crop is sugarcane, and with its rapid expansion, there is much debate about what land uses and land covers it is replacing, and what are the associated environmental and social impacts. Some argue sugarcane is mainly replacing cattle pasture, thus having minimal impacts on native vegetation and small-scale family farming. In contrast, others claim sugarcane is replacing cropland traditionally under soybeans, rice, beans, and corn. Thus, food security is negatively affected and small-scale family farming livelihoods and culture are threatened. This is a proof-of-concept paper illustrating methods contributing toward the resolution of such debates. First we map land use and cover change in areas undergoing sugarcane expansion using satellite data from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer); second, we test the hypothesis that sugarcane is replacing traditional annual crops using intensity analysis, via a case study of land change in the municipality of Pedro Afonso, Tocantins in northern Brazil between the 2008–2013 crop years. Maps matched reference data with overall agreements between 87–91%. Intensity analysis confirmed sugarcane is replacing annual crops much more than cattle pasture and other land uses and covers, pointing to particular economic and social processes driving land change.     

Quantifying cultural values associated with deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

This study analyzes the distribution of cultural values associated with forest and non-forest landscapes among stakeholder groups shaping land use and land cover change (LULCC) in an agricultural/forest frontier in the western Brazilian Amazon. The study addresses theoretical and methodological obstacles to the integration of cultural data and social science research into the study of LULCC, providing a simple, systematic, and more accurate way of understanding this missing feature of land change. The findings offer insights on elusive cultural features that influence how diverse actors make land use decisions and respond to drivers, and can thus contribute to enhancing the predictive capacity of land change research.     

Livestock carrying capacity evaluation in an integrated farming system: A case study from the mid-hills of Nepal

The crop livestock integrated farming system practiced in hilly regions of developing countries largely depends on the ecosystem as a whole. More especifically, the livestock component of the farming system relies heavily on natural resources such as forest, grazing and agricultural land for the supply of feed and fodder. The importance of animals as agents of nutrient recycling, sources of rural energy in terms of draft power and fuel, as well as being major contributors to the farm economy, has resulted in an increased population of ruminants in these regions, creating a threat to the sustainability and productivity of these land resources. This paper is an attempt to evaluate the livestock carrying capacity of land resources and to formulate the optimum herd size compatible with the differently resourced farm categories within the sub-watershed region of the mid-hills in Nepal. Our analysis reveals that the livestock carrying capacity of the land resources at the watershed level is 11696 Livestock Units (LU), whereas current stocking is 12985 LU, suggesting an overstocking of 1289 LU at the watershed level. Total feed supply from different sources is 12668 mt/yr whereas current Total Digestive Nutrient (TDN) demand is 14060 mt/yr, a negative balance of 1393 mt/yr. The excess livestock at the sub-watershed level directly implies excess livestock holding, producing a poor nutritional status for the farm household. Linear programming analysis reveals that the farmers of large, medium and small category farms can optimize their livestock holding by a combination of 3 LU buffaloes and 4 LU goats, 2 LU buffaloes and 4 LU goats and 1 LU buffaloes and 4.4 LU goats, thus giving maximum return to the farm family without exerting pressure on fragile natural resources.     

Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes

In the Brazilian Amazon, private land accounts for the majority of remaining native vegetation. Understanding how land‐use change affects the composition and distribution of biodiversity in farmlands is critical for improving conservation strategies in the face of rapid agricultural expansion. Working across an area exceeding 3 million ha in the southwestern state of Rondônia, we assessed how the extent and configuration of remnant forest in replicate 10,000‐ha landscapes has affected the occurrence of a suite of Amazonian mammals and birds. In each of 31 landscapes, we used field sampling and semistructured interviews with landowners to determine the presence of 28 large and medium sized mammals and birds, as well as a further 7 understory birds. We then combined results of field surveys and interviews with a probabilistic model of deforestation. We found strong evidence for a threshold response of sampled biodiversity to landscape level forest cover; landscapes with <30–40% forest cover hosted markedly fewer species. Results from field surveys and interviews yielded similar thresholds. These results imply that in partially deforested landscapes many species are susceptible to extirpation following relatively small additional reductions in forest area. In the model of deforestation by 2030 the number of 10,000‐ha landscapes under a conservative threshold of 43% forest cover almost doubled, such that only 22% of landscapes would likely to be able to sustain at least 75% of the 35 focal species we sampled. Brazilian law requires rural property owners in the Amazon to retain 80% forest cover, although this is rarely achieved. Prioritizing efforts to ensure that entire landscapes, rather than individual farms, retain at least 50% forest cover may help safeguard native biodiversity in private forest reserves in the Amazon. Umbrales de Pérdida de Especies en los Paisajes Fronterizos de Deforestación en el Amazonas Ochoa‐Quintero     

Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

Land systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.     

Biodiversität von agrarisch genutzten Ökosystemen in den Verhandlungen der COP 9 – Streitpunkt Agrartreibstoffe

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) originating from 1992 today has 190 Parties. In 2000 the convention decided on a programme of work on agricultural biodiversity which explicitly included the diversity of races and types of species used in agriculture. This programme was scheduled for an In-Depth Review at the Ninth Conference of the Parties (COP 9). The preparatory meetings of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA) already indicated that the production and use of biofuels would be a controversial issue during COP. Parties producing biofuels emphasised the CO₂ neutrality while importing countries called for standards for sustainable production. Developing countries mentioned the risk of losing agricultural area suitable for food production and indigenous representatives asked for social standards in agricultural production and respecting of their land ownership. A compromise could only be found at ministerial level during the last conference day, agreeing that all production of biofuels should be sustainable in relation to biodiversity and under this condition urging Parties to promote the production and use of biofuels. Research on the positive and negative impacts of biofuels should be conducted.     

Intensity of land use changes in a sugarcane expansion region,Brazil

In the last decades, Brazil has been consolidated as one of the world’s largest producers of food, with emphasis on soybeans, sugarcane and beef production. With the opening of new markets and the increase in demand, a competitive scenario was developed among farming activities, resulting in changes in land use and cover. Thus, this study aimed to verify the spatial and temporal land use changes, through intensity analysis, in the microregion of Presidente Prudente, São Paulo state, in two time intervals, 2004–2007 and 2007–2015, in addition to determining the relevance of pasture in this context. The identification of land uses occurred through the analysis of the spectrum-temporal pattern of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), in such a way that six classes were identified, annual crop, water, sugarcane, forest, pasture and urban area. The categories annual crop and sugarcane had more intense variations of losses and gains in the studied time intervals. The category pasture was the primary supplying source of the area, showing a reduction of approximately 180,000 hectares in the analyzed period, losing area with greater intensity for the categories of annual crop and sugarcane.     

Evolving patterns of agricultural frontier expansion in Mexico’s Chihuahuan Desert: a political ecology approach

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand why and how the area of irrigated agriculture in Janos County, in northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, has tripled since 1987. Expansion of agricultural frontiers has often been attributed to state policies and programs or von Thünian land-rent dynamics. Here, a political ecology approach relying on qualitative interviews with landowners was used to understand the drivers and patterns of conversion from native rangeland to crops. Results show that socioeconomic patterns of agricultural frontier expansion evolved over time, with different drivers at different phases. State policies, especially the land reform, were initially important for settling the agriculture frontier in small farms. Subsequently, economic differentiation, intensification, and growth of existing farms drove expansion. Since 2010, expansion has been driven by investment-oriented land purchases by absentee owners and larger-than-family farms. The Janos case details what may be common but underappreciated temporal dynamics at agricultural frontiers.     

Rainfall-human-spatial interactions in a salinity-prone agricultural region of the Western Australian wheat-belt

To explore the complexity of temporal and spatial dynamics of an agricultural landscape under various external and internal driven scenarios, SimKat, an agent-based model, has been developed with the simulation computer program CORMAS. This model combines simplified bio-physical processes of land cover, regional dry-land salinity changes, rainfall impact on productivity, farm profitability and the complexity of land-use decisions of individual farmers in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no irrigation). In this model, simulated farmers formulate individual decisions dealing with land-use changes based on the combined performance of their past land cover productivity and market returns. The willingness to adapt to market drivers and the ability to maximize returns vary between farmers. In addition, farmers in the model can demonstrate various attitudes towards dry-land salinity mitigation as a consequence of experiencing and perceiving salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or across the entire region. Consequently, farmers can adopt land cover strategies aimed at reducing dry-land salinity. Aggregating the simulated individual behavior of farmers combined with historical rainfall and market price records, reproduced similar aggregated trends of land-cover changes, regional salinity change and farm number decline as observed in the last 20 years in the subject region (Katanning, Western Australia). Using the model in an initial exploratory study on the impact of rainfall variability and change highlighted the importance of average rainfall decline and the widespread willingness of farmers to adapt perennial vegetation in their farming systems to combat regional dry-land salinity. Rainfall decline, as one of the observed consequences of climate change in this region, can also lead to prolonged sequences of dry seasons in the future. Adaptation by farmers to sequences of dry and wet seasons, rather than an average trend in rainfall, seems to be critical for farm survival in this region. Intensifying cropping during wet seasons to maximize farm returns can increase vulnerability in subsequent periods of dry seasons, in particular where alternative income from pasture and sheep production has been lost in the adaptation process.     

Epiphyte Biodiversity in the Coffee Agricultural Matrix: Canopy Stratification and Distance from Forest Fragments

Abstract: Quality of the agricultural matrix profoundly affects biodiversity and dispersal in agricultural areas. Vegetatively complex coffee agroecosystems maintain species richness at larger distances from the forest. Epiphytes colonize canopy trees and provide resources for birds and insects and thus effects of agricultural production on epiphytes may affect other species. We compared diversity, composition, and vertical stratification of epiphytes in a forest fragment and in two coffee farms differing in management intensity in southern Mexico. We also examined spatial distribution of epiphytes with respect to the forest fragment to examine quality of the two agricultural matrix types for epiphyte conservation. We sampled vascular epiphytes in a forest fragment, a shade polyculture farm, and a shade monoculture farm at 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m from the forest. Epiphyte and orchid richness was greater in the forest than in the monoculture but richness was similar in the forest and polyculture farm. Epiphyte species composition differed with habitat type, but not with distance from the forest. In the forest, epiphytes were distributed throughout tree canopies, but in the farms, epiphytes were primarily found on trunks and larger branches. Epiphyte richness and species similarity to forest species declined with distance from the forest fragment in the monoculture, but richness and similarity to forest species did not decline with distance from forest in the polyculture. This suggests polyculture coffee has greater conservation value. In contrast, monoculture coffee is likely a sink habitat for epiphytes dispersing from forests into coffee. Coffee farms differ from forests in terms of the habitat they provide and species composition, thus protecting forest fragments is essential for epiphyte conservation. Nonetheless, in agricultural landscapes, vegetatively complex coffee farms may contribute to conservation of epiphytes more than other agricultural land uses.     

大城市边缘区土地利用空间格局特征分析.以北京大兴区为例

以北京大兴区为例,利用景观格局和空间分析方法,从产业布局和区位角度分析大城市边缘区土地利用空间分异特征.结果表明：（1）该区土地利用程度高,区域产业布局及距城市、村镇和道路距离等区位因素使其土地利用综合水平呈现北高南低、北部和南部区域内部重点镇高于一般镇的等级梯度分异格局.（2）设施农用地、园地和设施耕地等集约利用程度较高的农用地比例很大,集中分布在村镇和道路附近,生产便利性和成本是其空间分异的主要影响因素;（3）各类土地破碎化严重,集聚度和规模化程度低,亟需通过土地综合整治,重构村庄空间体系,充分发挥循环经济和农用地多功能性的优势,优化农业产业间及其与非农用地间的用地结构和空间布局,进一步提高土地利用综合效益.     

An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.     

Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade

Increased future demands for food, fibre and fuels from biomass can only be met if the available land and water resources on a global scale are used and managed as efficiently as possible. The main routes for making the global agricultural system more productive are through intensification and technological change on currently used agricultural land, land expansion into currently non-agricultural areas, and international trade in agricultural commodities and processed goods. In order to analyse the trade-offs and synergies between these options, we present a global bio-economic modelling approach with a special focus on spatially explicit land and water constraints as well as technological change in agricultural production. For a global bioenergy demand scenario reaching 100 ExaJoule (EJ) until 2055 we derive a required rate of productivity increase on agricultural land between 1.2 and 1.4 percent per year under different land allocation options. A very high pressure for yield increase occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, even without additional bioenergy demand. Moreover, we analyse the implicit values (shadow prices) of limited water resources. The shadow prices for bioenergy are provided as a metric for assessing the trade-offs between different land allocation options and as a link between the agricultural and energy sector.     

Agricultural production and bird conservation in complex landscapes of the dry Chaco

The South American dry Chaco is a mosaic of woody vegetation and grasslands with high deforestation rates in recent decades. Considering forests and grasslands as the main natural habitats, we assessed the trade-offs between bird populations and agricultural production to compare the potential consequences of different land use strategies (‘sharing’, ‘sparing’, and intermediate) for populations of bird species sensitive to agriculture, while attaining a regional production target. We evaluated how populations responded to scenarios with different proportions of forest and grasslands, considering three reference states (100% forest, 80:20% and 50:50% forest and grasslands, respectively); and scenarios capable of meeting three after-farming scenarios, with land destined to reach a regional production target with three variations of forest:grasslands within spared land. We fitted curves to relate bird abundance to agricultural yield along a gradient of meat production intensity; and we classified bird species as ‘losers’ (if their populations were lower than the baseline population in the reference state, at any level of production) and ‘winners’ (if their current populations were higher than the baseline population). At the ‘current’ (c. 2010) level of regional agricultural production, we found a similar number of loser species maximized by land-sparing and land-sharing strategies; while intermediate strategies were the least favourable to balance production and bird populations. Under the most probable scenarios of increases in regional meat production, most loser bird species populations were maximized by a land-sparing strategy, suggesting that if meat production targets are going to increase in the region, this can be more efficiently achieved by combining well-protected forests and grasslands, and high-yielding mechanized agriculture (e.g. soybean). Our results highlight the importance of assessing all the important natural habitats (e.g. forests and grasslands) of a region to explore conservation strategies at a regional scale.