广西土地利用变化及对粮食生产的影响

在统计软件SPSS支持下,深入分析了广西土地利用现状及1996—2001年土地利用结构变化的原因,在此基础上探讨了土地利用变化对粮食生产的影响,并提出了一些保障粮食安全的对策及建议。     

A confirmation of the indirect impact of sugarcane on deforestation in the Amazon

A widely discussed assumption that the expansion of sugarcane indirectly contributes to deforestation in Brazil has been backed statistically by only a handful of studies. The present research measures the indirect effect of sugarcane in Brazil’s frontier counties as a weighted summation of changes in sugarcane area in agricultural (non-frontier) counties, where weights are constructed using road distances and the bandwidth that minimizes overall model error. In addition to economic variables, indirect effect variables are employed to create a model that explains deforestation. Parameters are estimated following fixed-effects methodology. The results reveal that sugarcane indirectly contributed to deforestation in Brazil during the period from 2002 to 2012. The effect was estimated to be sizeable; in particular, 16.3 thousand km² of forest was cut by economic actors displaced by expanding sugarcane plantations. This figure constitutes 12.2% of deforestation in Brazil from 2002 to 2012 and is equivalent to 189.4 million Mg of carbon emissions.     

Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research

Changes in land use and land cover are important in global climate change, but the many uncertainties in historical estimates seriously hamper climate modelling. We collected new data on estimated per capita land use over the last two millennia, using new data sources from the Humanities. In general, and in agreement with literature, we found that per capita land use indeed has not been constant in the past, but differ per region and over time. Land use in the distant past was mostly less than 1 ha/cap. However, the recently colonised regions show much higher values and have experienced a much higher per capita land use for the recent past. Most known trajectories follow a concave or bell-shaped curve towards the present.     

吉林西部土地利用/覆被时空变化驱动力分析

针对吉林两部土地利用/覆被情况,基于TM影像,借助人机交互解译方法,结合1:10万地形图获得1986年、1996年、2000年和2004年的4期土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)矢量数据.利用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵.全面揭示研究区15年的LUCC时空变化特征,结果表明.盐碱地扩张,湿地、水域萎缩和草地退化已经成为吉林西部生态环境恶化的突出表现.结合研究区的实际情况选取总人口数、农业人口数、粮食总产置等12个指标作为LUCC:变化的丰十会经济驱动因子,借助多元线性回归模型,建立主要土地利用类型的驱动力模型.结果表明吉林西部土地利用变化的最主要社会经济因子是农业人口数、农民人均纯收入、农业生产技术(农业机械总动力、化肥施用量)和农村用电量,同时提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施.     

森林土地利用变化及其对碳循环的影响

由于人口剧增，人类活动的影响不断加大，在过去100年全球土地利用／土地覆被发生了巨大的变化。最常见的土地利用变化是由森林转变为农业用地。森林砍伐使森林生态系统地上部生物量大大减少，砍伐后作农业用地，降低了植被生产力，减少了土壤有机质的输入，增强了腐殖质的矿化作用，有机质分解速率增加，有机碳贮量随之降低，从而影响到森林生态系统的碳循环，使大量碳元素释放到大气中，引起温室效应，导致全球变暖。另一个常见的土地利用变化是植树造林和森林恢复，这一过程可以增加森林生态系统的碳储量，从而减缓大气CO2体积分数的上升。     

Effect of land use and land cover change on soil erosion and the spatio-temporal variation in Liupan Mountain Region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains are located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, that forms an important divide between landforms and biogeographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountain Region has suffered tremendous ecological damage over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. To present the relationship between land use/cover change and spatio-temporal variation of soil erosion, data sets of land use between the late 1980s and 2000 were obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and spatial models were used to characterize landscape and soil erosion conditions. Also, soil erosion in response to land use and land cover change were quantified and analyzed using data from geographical information systems and remote sensing. Soil erosion by water was the dominant mode of soil loss, while soil erosion by wind was only present on a relatively small area. The degree of soil erosion was classified into five severity classes: slight, light, moderate, severe, and very severe. Soil erosion in the Liupan Mountain Region increased between the late 1980s and 2000, both in terms of acreage and severity. Moderate, severe, and very severe eroded areas accounted for 54.86% of the total land area. The lightly eroded area decreased, while the moderately eroded area increased by 368817 ha (22%) followed by severe erosion with 146552 ha (8.8%), and very severe erosion by 97067.6 ha (5.8%). Soil loss on sloping cropland increased with slope gradients. About 90% of the cropland was located on slopes less than 15°. Most of the increase in soil erosion on cropland was due to conversion of steep slopes to cropland and degradation of grassland and increased activities. Soil erosion was severe on grassland with a moderate or low grass cover and on dry land. Human activities, cultivation on steep slopes, and overgrazing of pastures were the main reasons for the increase in erosion severity.     

区域土地利用变化对土壤磷含量的影响评价研究

研究土壤磷含量的时空演变规律对改善土地管理水平和提高土壤质量具有重要的指导作用。文章选取江苏省原锡山市作为研究区域,以1982年和2005年土壤全磷和速效磷含量作为研究对象,研究探讨土地利用变化对土壤磷含量的影响,进而表明人类活动对生态系统和环境的影响。通过统计分析表明,20年来原锡山市土壤全磷含量降低0.48g·kg-1,土壤速效磷含量升高26.16mg·kg-1。通过变异函数分析,20年来原锡山市全磷和速效磷的变异函数理论模型都是指数型,但块金方差与基台值的比值、自相关阀值发生了较大变化;Kriging插值分析结果表明,1982年全磷和速效磷的分布比较简单;2005年全磷分布较为简单,土壤速效磷分布较为复杂。Kriging插值分析还表明,20年来原锡山市土壤全磷含量降低,空间变异显著;土壤速效磷含量升高,空间变异显著。     

土地利用/覆被变化对土地生态系统有机碳库的影响——以吉林省通榆县为例

土地利用/覆被变化对陆地碳循环影响显著.文章基于实地采集的土壤、植物样品的测试数据和1989、2004两年8月陆地卫星TM遥感影像数据,采用生态系统类型法分析吉林省通榆县1989-2004年耕地、林地、草地、盐碱地、沙地等11 种地类之间土地利用变化对土地生态系统有机碳库的影响.计算结果表明1989-2004年通榆县土地生态系统有机碳库共损失了3.18 TgC(1Tg=106t),年均损失约为0.265 Tgc.其中,湿地、草地有机碳库分别损失5.54 TgC和3.71 TgC,盐碱地面积的增加导致有机碳库损失4.75 TgC.林地面积增加和沙地面积减少分别使有机碳库增加了4.58 TgC和3.75 TgC.研究区总体上为一个碳失汇,草地退化、湿地萎缩、土地沙化和盐碱化造成了有机碳库的碳损失,而植树造林、草地植被的恢复和重建等活动则可以显著增加土壤有机碳储量.该研究对于评估自然环境与人为活动影响下,特别是大规模土地整治与生态修复对土壤有机碳的增汇潜力和固碳效应的影响具有重要的理论意义和应用价值.     

珠江三角洲土地利用变化对特征大气污染物扩散的影响

在珠江三角洲两种下垫面条件下,应用CALPUFF大气污染扩散模式,对特征污染物SO2、SO42-的扩散进行数值模拟,探讨大规模土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,对珠江三角洲地区大气污染物扩散的影响,并通过对4个典型区污染物月均质量浓度变化特征分析,揭示土地利用变化对不同地区的污染物分布的影响机制。模拟结果表明：土地利用变化,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,不利于污染物扩散,污染源下风方向地区受影响较大,污染物质量浓度明显升高,SO2和 SO42-年均质量浓度分别增加14.07%和3.31%;受影响范围、变化幅度与污染源排污强度呈正相关,变化幅度亦与污染源距离远近呈负相关。土地利用变化后,尤其是城镇建设用地增加,四个典型区 SO2月均质量浓度都表现为升高趋势,且冬季 SO2质量浓度升高幅度最大,夏季升高幅度最小,临近污染源密集区的两个典型区SO2月均质量浓度分别增加33.6%和26.3%。土地利用变化不仅改变局地的污染扩散,也会对区域的污染扩散有一定影响,尤其对污染源分布密集区的大气污染物扩散影响强度最大。因此,建议人类在城市化建设过程中尽可能保留自然斑块,消除人工下垫面对污染物扩散的负面影响。     

Monitoring land use/land cover change impacts on soils in data scarce environments: a case of south-central Ethiopia

To monitor land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and assess its impact on the soil property, the availability of benchmark data is indispensable, which is hardly available in the intensively cultivated regions of developing countries. Our study attempts to solve this problem by generating a benchmark soil data through the development of modified spatial analogue (MSA) method in the context of the Upper Dijo River catchment, south-central Ethiopia. The magnitude and patterns of LULC changes were extracted from air photos and satellite imageries, along with the acquisition of soil samples from the reference and target sites through ground survey. Analysis of digital image processing shows significant LULC changes in a period that spanned three decades. The impact of LULC change on soil quality was assessed by comparing the soil physico-chemical properties sampled from the reference and target sites. The result shows a decline in total nitrogen, organic matter, available potassium and pH levels in soils collected from target sites, which conforms to results reported by studies conducted in data-rich environment. With careful validation, MSA could be useful for monitoring soil property changes in data-scarce environment and generate soil-related parameters for agro-ecological models.     

不同土地利用方式对城市土壤活性有机碳的影响——以开封市为例

以开封市为例,采集不同土地利用方式下城市表层土壤并测定其有机碳含量,进而探讨土地利用方式对城市土壤活性有机碳特性的影响。结果表明:土地利用方式对城市土壤活性有机碳的影响差异显著,其中易氧化态和水溶性有机碳含量依次为近郊蔬菜地>城区>近郊非农业区>远郊,微生物量有机碳含量则为近郊蔬菜地>近郊非农业区>城区>远郊,这与不同土地利用方式下土壤有机碳总量的变化情况不一样;土壤活性有机碳占总有机碳的比率也随土地利用方式的不同而变化,但其变化与土壤活性有机碳的变化情况不一致;土壤易氧化态、水溶性和微生物量有机碳之间有较强的相关性,其变化趋势在同一土地利用方式下近于一致。     

干旱内陆河流域土地利用变化及其对环境的影响——以西北地区黑河流域为例

从区域的角度,研究土地利用/土地覆被变化导致的生态环境退化,对于丰富土地利用/土地覆被变化研究内容具有重要的理论意义,同时又对当地生态环境的保护与恢复具有现实的指导意义。文章以我国西北干旱区内陆河流域黑河为例,利用遥感和GIS技术,分析和评价近17年(1987—2004年)来该流域土地利用的动态变化及其对于整个流域环境的影响。研究结果表明,自1987—2004年黑河流域5种土地利用类型面积发生了显著的变化。具体表现在耕地面积由1987年的5178.0km2增加到2004年的5357.8km2,林地面积从1987年的6422.1km2增加到2004年的6450.4km2,城镇用地面积从1987年的115179.5km2增加到2004年的115791.4km2;另一方面,草地面积却从1987年的27710.6km2减少到2004年的27209.3km2,水域面积从1987年的1645.7km2减少到2004年的1386.4km2。同时又分别从黑河上、中、下游方面,对土地利用变化情况作了具体的分析。通过以上研究可以看出,近17年来,黑河流域土地利用发生了深刻的变化,由此造成了整个流域的生态环境退化问题,主要表现在水环境的变化、土地荒漠化、土壤盐渍化以及植被退化等方面。     

挠力河流域农垦开发中居民地景观生态特征的变化

运用G IS、景观格局分析与聚落分析方法定量分析了挠力河流域在快速农垦开发中居民地分布格局的时空变化,探讨了景观格局形成的机制。景观指数分析表明近50 a来居民地面积和数目激增,居民地斑块面积、聚集度增大,表明人类对挠力河流域景观扰动持续增强。在所有背景地类中,居民地与耕地的邻接比例最高。伴随居民地和耕地迅速扩张,两者邻接比例呈上升趋势,两者相互影响越来越大。不同时期居民地扩张强度高值区分布有所不同,主要分布在早期的耕地新增区,1954—2000年挠力河流域居民地扩张高值区最终主要分布于该流域的西部与中部。虽然居民地数目和面积均激增,各居民地之间的距离亦呈缩短趋势,但居民地最近邻点指数表明,近50 a来挠力河流域居民地分布类型一直为随机分布,农垦经济仍占主导地位,人为规划比城镇发达地区薄弱。     

不同利用方式下吴江市耕地土壤环境质量变化

土地利用方式的不同影响着土壤环境质量的变化。文章采用了2003年江苏省吴江市耕地质量监测中资料,分析了6种不同土地利用方式下的土壤养分及Pb、Cr、Hg、As、Cd等5种重金属元素全量的变化,并采用土壤质量综合指数(SQI)法计算不同利用下的土壤环境质量指数。结果表明:近20多年来,吴江市土地利用方式发生了明显的变化,这种变化对本土壤养分和重金属含量产生了十分明显的影响。在稻田、林地、桑园、菜地、果园、旱地六种吴江常见的土地利用方式中,稻田土壤环境质量综合指数显著高于其他利用下,而其他五种利用方式下土壤质量的差别不明显。可见稻田不仅是一种太湖地区传统的利用方式,更是保持环境质量相对最佳的土地利用方式。     

传统农业区土地利用对土壤氮素季节动态变化的影响——以官厅水库上游延庆盆地为例

土地利用对土壤养分时空动态变化的影响,不仅影响到土壤中养分元素的利用效率,同时会影响到养分流失的危险性和区域非点源污染的形成。本文通过野外采样分析,按照不同时期对官厅水库上游延庆盆地内的玉米地、蔬菜地、果园、其他经济类用地的土壤全氮含量进行了测定;分析了不同农业用地影响下土壤氮素的季节动态变化特征和土壤垂直剖面变化。结果发现:(1)0～40cm是玉米地养分活跃层;蔬菜地的养分含量在0～10cm土层变化最剧烈;果园整个剖面上养分变化均较剧烈;其它经济用地在25～40cm土层养分变化较大;(2)果园和蔬菜地是研究区内养分活动最活跃的土地利用方式,蔬菜地的表层养分流失风险性最高,对于地表水和地下水具有很高的潜在影响;果园在整个剖面上养分变化较大,其发生养分的淋溶流失的风险性最高;玉米和其他经济用地养分变化不大。研究结果建议,传统农业区在开展农业结构调整时,尤其是将传统的农作物种植改为蔬菜地和果园时,必须加强对农田生态系统研究,实施严格的科学管理,提高养分的利用效率,降低对环境的影响。     

Tracking land cover change along the western edge of the U.S. Corn Belt from 1984 through 2016 using satellite sensor data: observed trends and contributing factors

The Cropland Data Layers (CDL) are high-resolution geo-referenced data products made available by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. However, the CDL lacks in its ability to be employed as a tool to identify the impact of the gradually evolving drivers of land use change, e.g., climate change, due to its limited historical depth. We implement a robust, phenology-based satellite image classification algorithm to identify historical cropland allocation in eastern South Dakota and North Dakota predating the initial CDL by 13 and 22 years, respectively. Five major land covers, i.e., corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa and grass (including native grass, hay and pasture) are identified using archived Landsat-5 surface reflectance data, while achieving CDL-like accuracy. The long-term rate of grassland loss during 1985–2011 is found to be significantly lower (26,781 hectares or 1.5% annually) relative to the near-term rate of grassland loss during 2006-’11 (84,545 hectares or 5.2% annually). We find similar discrepancy in regional corn expansion rates. Our value-added raster data provide opportunities for improved identification of land use drivers, whereas relying solely on the CDL’s restricted historical extent may lead to biased land use change estimates and misguide policy.     

Tenure diversity and dependent causation in the effects of regional integration on land use: evaluating the evolutionary theory of land rights in Acre,Brazil

In the complex causation behind land change, dependent causation can play a central role. A case in point concerns land tenure diversity, where contrasting use rules for different lands may affect the impacts of other drivers on land use outcomes. We therefore evaluate the evolutionary theory of land rights (ETLR), which assumes homogeneous private property rights, in order to test for dependent causation due to distinct use rules among various types of private lands. In the present analysis, we focus on whether land tenure type modifies the effects of highway infrastructure on key outcomes highlighted in the ETLR framework. We take up the case of rural settlements along the Inter-Oceanic Highway in the eastern part of the Brazilian state of Acre, where there is considerable land tenure diversity. Findings from multivariate models for land titling, the castanha nut harvest, and cattle pasture all indicate that the effects of infrastructure depend on land tenure type. These results confirm the importance of dependent causation behind land use and bear implications for theory on land change, infrastructure impacts, and land system science.     

Assessing the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected‐area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land‐use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land‐acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land‐acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high‐priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land‐acquisition costs and land‐use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24–78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73–13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19–82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost‐effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.     

Theoretical analysis of change in forest carbon use efficiency with stand development: A case study on Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) plantation from the seedling stage

Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP), were estimated for the aerial parts of the Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) with respect to stand development. The analysis incorporated previously published data from the early stages of stand development, namely the seedling stages of the cypress. For this analysis, a simple mathematical model to assess the changes in CUE was developed by incorporating data on physiological variables and mass of woody species. The CUE tended to increase with increases in the aboveground biomass of the stand, and then decreased gradually despite increases in the aboveground biomass. The CUE-value (0.28, 0.39) of the seedling stage was lower than that (0.33-0.58) of the young or mature trees. To examine the effect of physiological variables and mass on CUE, the ratios of the specific respiration rate to the specific photosynthetic rate (r/a) and the leaf biomass to the aboveground biomass or leaf mass ratio (y_L/y_T) were calculated. The low value of CUE at the seedling stage was due to the high ratio of specific respiration rate to specific photosynthetic rate r/a, but was not due to the high value of the leaf mass ratio y_L/y_T. In addition, the decline in CUE associated with older stages of stand development was due to the decreasing changes in y_L/y_T, and the r/a ratio did not influence the change in CUE.