Fusion of SeaWiFS and TOMS satellite data with surface observations and topographic data during extreme aerosol events.

Spaceborne sensors allow near-continuous aerosol monitoring throughout the world. This paper illustrates the fusion of Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and TOMS satellite data with surface observations and topographic data during four extreme aerosol events: (1) the April 1998 Asian dust storm that impacted the west coast of North America, (2) the May 1998 Central American forest fire smoke that impacted eastern North America, (3) the intense fall 1999 northern California fires, and (4) the massive February 2000 Sahara dust storm. During these dust and smoke events, the aerosol was visualized on true color SeaWiFS images as a distinct yellowish dye, the result of the aerosol increasing the reflectance of darker surfaces (ocean and land) and decreasing the reflectance of clouds. TOMS imagery also indicated increased aerosol absorption in the affected areas, while surface monitors measured major reductions in visual range. Fusing these data aids in the determination of the aerosol's spatial, temporal, and optical properties and provides supporting evidence for characterizing what is being visualized as dust or smoke. A 3-dimensional perspective of the events is obtained when incorporating topographic data and provides insight into the vertical properties of the aerosol plumes.     

Fusion of SeaWiFS and TOMS Satellite Data with Surface Observations and Topographic Data during Extreme Aerosol Events

ABSTRACT

Spaceborne sensors allow near-continuous aerosol monitoring throughout the world. This paper illustrates the fusion of Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) and TOMS satellite data with surface observations and topographic data during four extreme aerosol events: (1) the April 1998 Asian dust storm that impacted the west coast of North America, (2) the May 1998 Central American forest fire smoke that impacted eastern North America, (3) the intense fall 1999 northern California fires, and (4) the massive February 2000 Sahara dust storm. During these dust and smoke events, the aerosol was visualized on true color SeaWiFS images as a distinct yellowish dye, the result of the aerosol increasing the reflectance of darker surfaces (ocean and land) and decreasing the reflectance of clouds. TOMS imagery also indicated increased aerosol absorption in the affected areas, while surface monitors measured major reductions in visual range. Fusing these data aids in the determination of the aerosol's spatial, temporal, and optical properties and provides supporting evidence for characterizing what is being visualized as dust or smoke. A 3-dimensional perspective of the events is obtained when incorporating topographic data and provides insight into the vertical properties of the aerosol plumes.     

Facing Hazardous Matter in Atmospheric Particles with NanoSIMS (2 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Current scientific studies and evaluations clearly show that an increase of urban dust loads, alone or combined with other pollutants und certain meteorological conditions lead to different significant health effects. Premature death, increased hospital admissions and increased respiratory symptoms and diseases as well as decreased lung function can be observed in combination with high pollutant levels. Sensitive groups like elderly people or children and persons with cardiopulmonary diseases such as asthma are more strongly affected. Because of the direct contact between fine particles and lung tissue more information concerning the surface structure (mapping of toxic elements) is required. Materials and Methods: The NanoSims50 ion microprobe images the element composition at the surface of sub-micrometer air dust particles and documents hot spots of toxic elements as a possible threat for human health. Results: The atmospheric fine dust consists of a complex mixture of organic and inorganic compounds. Heavy metals are fixed on airborn particles in the form of hot spots in a nanometer scale. From a sanitary point of view, the hot spots consisting of toxic elements are particularly relevant as they react directly with the lung tissues. Discussion: To what extent particles can penetrate the various areas of the lungs and be deposited there depends on the one hand on their physical characteristics and on the other on breathing patterns and the anatomy of the lung, which is subject to change as the result of growth, ageing or illness. Once inhaled, some particles can reach the pulmonary alveoli and thus directly expose the lung tissues to toxic elements. Conclusions: Especially the mapping of toxic arsenic or heavy metals like copper on the dust particles shows local hot spots of pollution in the dimension of only 50 nanometers. Recommendations and Perspectives: Imaging of elements in atmospheric particles with NanoSIMS will help to identify the material sources.     

Trends in aerosol optical depth for cities in India

Recent analysis of trends in global short-wave radiation measured with pyranometers in major cities in India support a decrease in solar radiation in many of those cities since 1990. Since direct and diffuse radiation measurements include cloud effects, spring and summer dust and the variable summer monsoon rains, we concentrate in this paper on wintertime (November–February) aerosol optical depth measurements. The aerosol optical depth is derived from cloud-free turbidity measurements beginning in the 1960s and more recent sun photometer direct aerosol optical depth measurements. We compare the sun photometer derived trends with the pyranometer-derived trends using a radiative transfer model. These results are then compared to total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) satellite-derived regional aerosol optical depths from 1980 to 2000. The results show that inclusion of the earlier turbidity measurements helps to establish an increasing regional turbidity trend. However, most of the increasing trend is confined to the larger cities in the Ganges River Basin of India (mainly Calcutta and New Delhi) with other cities showing a much less increase. Regional satellite data show that there is an increasing trend in aerosol off the coast of India and over the Ganges River Basin. The increase over the Ganges River Basin is consistent with population trends over the region during 1980–2000.     

Variability of atmospheric dust loading over the central Tibetan Plateau based on ice core glaciochemistry

A Mt. Geladaindong (GL) ice core was recovered from the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) spanning the period 1940–2005 AD. High-resolution major ion (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, SO₄^2?, NO₃^?) time-series are used to investigate variations in atmospheric dust loading through time. The crustal source ions vary seasonally with peaks in dust concentrations occurring during the winter and spring which are consistent with atmospheric dust observations at local meteorological stations. However, both similarities and dissimilarities are displayed between the decadal variation of atmospheric dust in the GL core and dust observation records from meteorological stations, which can be attributed to local environmental effects at the stations. This paper compares the 1980s and 1970s as case periods for low and high atmospheric dust loading, respectively, two periods reflecting shifts in spring atmospheric circulation (a weakening of zonal and meridional winds) from the 1970s (a period of enhanced dust aerosol transportation to central TP) to the 1980s (a period of diminished dust aerosol transportation to central TP), especially a significant decrease of meridional wind speeds in the 1980s. GL ice core dust proxies (Ca²⁺ and K⁺) are correlated with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) data in spring over the TP and in the northwestern China (especially for K⁺). Thus variability of crustal ions in central TP ice core provides a proxy for reconstructing a history of atmospheric dust loading not only on the TP, but also in northwestern China.     

Variation of dust layer height in the northern Taklimakan Desert in April 2002

LIDAR observations were conducted in the northern Taklimakan Desert to investigate the vertical distribution of dust in April 2002. During the observation period, a dust outbreak occurred on 13 April, remaining over the desert for several days. Despite only slight variations being observed in dust layer height before the dust event, marked diurnal variation in dust layer height was observed after the dust event. In this study, we conducted two numerical simulations to investigate differences in the variation exhibited by the dust layer heights before and after the dust event, and assessed the influence of meteorological conditions on this variation. The simulated results show that the clearly diurnal variation in dust layer height is strongly influenced by local circulation which is affected by the characteristic topography and synoptic conditions of the Tarim Basin.     

Estimating PM10 air concentrations from dust storms in Iraq,Kuwait and Saudi Arabia

A model for the emission of PM₁₀ dust has been constructed using the concept of a threshold friction velocity which is dependent on surface roughness. Surface roughness in turn was correlated with geomorphology or soil properties for Kuwait, Iraq, part of Syria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. The PM₁₀ emission algorithm was incorporated into a Lagrangian transport and dispersion model. PM₁₀ air concentrations were computed from August 1990 through August 1991. The model predicted about the right number of dust events over Kuwait (events occur 18% of the time). The model results agreed quantitatively with measurements at four locations in Saudi Arabia and one in Kuwait for one major dust event (>1000 μg/m³). However, for smaller scale dust events (200–1000 μg/m³), especially at the coastal sampling locations, the model substantially over-predicted the air concentrations. Part of the over-prediction was attributed to the entrainment of dust-free air by the sea breeze, a flow feature not represented by the large-scale gridded meteorological data fields used in the model computation. Another part of the over-prediction was the model's strong sensitivity to threshold friction velocity and the surface soil texture coefficient (the soil emission factor), and the difficulty in accurately representing these parameters in the model. A comparison of the model predicted PM₁₀ spatial pattern with the TOMS satellite aerosol index (AI) yielded a spatial pattern covering a major portion of Saudi Arabia that was quite similar to the observed AI pattern.     

African dust contributions to mean ambient PM10 mass-levels across the Mediterranean Basin

Data on mass-levels of PM₁₀ measured at regional background sites across the Mediterranean Basin, available from Airbase (European Environmental Agency) and from a few aerosol research sites, are compiled. PM₁₀ levels increase from north to south and west to east of the Basin. These variations are roughly coincident with the PM₁₀ African mineral dust load. However, when subtracting the African dust from mean PM₁₀ levels using a consistent methodology, the PM₁₀ background levels are still 5–10 μg m^?3 higher in the Eastern Basin (EMB) when compared with those in the Western (WMB), mainly due to the higher anthropogenic and sea spray loads.As regards for the seasonal trends, these are largely driven by the occurrence of African dust events, resulting in a spring-early summer maximum over the EMB, and a clear summer maximum in the WMB, although in this later region the recirculations of aged air masses play an important role. Furthermore, a marked seasonal trend is still evident when subtracting the African dust load. This is characterised by a high summer maximum (driven by low precipitation, high insolation) and a winter minimum (intense synoptic winds).Important inter-annual variations in the dust contribution are detected, more evident in the southern sites. These differences are generally associated with the occurrence of extreme dust events. Generally, the years with higher dust contributions over the EMB correspond with lower contributions over the WMB, and vice versa.The characterization of individual particles, collected in both basins during African dust events, by scanning electron microscopy reveals only slight differences between them. This fact probably reflects the high degree of mixture of mineral dust from different sources before the transport towards the receptor sites.     

Quantification of highway vehicle emissions hot spots based upon on-board measurements

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate a methodology for quantification of high emissions hot spots along roadways based upon real-world, on-road vehicle emissions measurements. An emissions hot spot is defined as a fixed location along a corridor in which the peak emissions are statistically significantly greater by more than a factor of 2 than the average emissions for free-flow or near free-flow conditions on the corridor. A portable instrument was used to measure on-road tailpipe emissions of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, hydrocarbons, and carbon dioxide on a second-by-second basis during actual driving. Measurements were made for seven vehicles deployed on two primary arterial corridors. The ratio of average emissions at hot spots to the average emissions observed during a trip was as high as 25 for carbon monoxide, 5 for nitric oxide, and 3 for hydrocarbons. The relationships between hot spots and explanatory variables were investigated using graphical and statistical methods. Average speed, average acceleration, standard deviation of speed, percent of time spent in cruise mode, minimum speed, maximum acceleration, and maximum power have statistically significant associations with vehicle emissions and influence emissions hot spots. For example, stop-and-go traffic conditions that result in sudden changes in speed, and traffic patterns with high accelerations, are shown to generate hot spots. The implications of this work for future model development and applications to environmental management are discussed.     

Transport of dusts from East Asian and non-East Asian sources to Hong Kong during dust storm related events 1996–2007

Over a twelve year period from 1996 to 2007, 76 dust storm related events (as days) in Hong Kong were selected for study, based on Aluminium and Calcium concentrations in PM₁₀. Four of the 76 events reach episodic levels with exceedances of the Hong Kong air quality standards. The purpose of the study is to identify and characterize dust sources impacting Hong Kong.Global distribution of aerosols in NASA’s daily aerosol index images from TOMS and OMI, are compared to plots generated by NRL(US)’s Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System. Possible source areas are assigned by computing air parcel backward trajectories to Hong Kong using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. PM₁₀ and elemental data are analyzed for crustal mass concentrations and element mass ratios.Our analysis reveals that 73 out of the 76 dust events (96%) involve non-East Asian sources-the Thar, Central/West Asian, Arabian and Sahara deserts (Saharan influence is found in 63 events), which are previously not known to affect Hong Kong. The Gobi desert is the most frequent origin of dust, affecting 68 dust events while the Taklamakan desert impacts only 30 of the dust events. The impact of the Gobi desert in March and December is apparently associated with the northeast monsoon in East Asia.Our results also show a seasonal pattern in dust impact from both East Asian and more remote sources, with a maximum in March. Dust event occurrences are conspicuously absent from summer. Dust transport to Hong Kong is commonly associated with the passage of frontal low-pressure systems.The coarse size fraction of PM₁₀ concentrations were, as indicated by Al, Ca and Fe concentrations, about 4–8 times higher during dust events. The mean Ca/Al ratios of sources involving the Taklamakan desert are notably higher than those for non-East Asian sources owing to a higher Ca content of most of the East Asian deserts. The Fe/Al ratios follow a similar trend.Contributions from the desert sources are grossly estimated where possible, by using the average Al abundance of 8% in the upper continental crust to convert the Al mass in the PM₁₀ to dust concentrations. This is done for the six events identified with air mass purely of non-East Asian origin and the two events related only to the Thar/Arabian/Sahara deserts. Results reveal that the average contribution from the non-East Asian sources (including C/W Asia) is approximately 10% and, that from the Thar/Arabian/Sahara deserts is about 8%.     

Number size distribution of atmospheric aerosols during ACE-Asia dust and precipitation events

Measurements of size-resolved particle number concentrations during the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field campaign were made at the Gosan super-site, South Korea. In East Asia, dust and precipitation phenomena play a crucial role in atmospheric environment and climate studies because they are major sources and sinks of atmospheric aerosols, especially in the springtime. Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index and backward trajectories are analyzed to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of dust storms. The size distributions between dust and non-dust periods and times with and without precipitation are compared. In order to understand the temporal evolution of the aerosol size distribution during dust and precipitation events, a simple aerosol dynamics model is employed. The model predicted and observed size distributions are compared with the measured data. The results show that the coarse mode particle number concentrations increase by a factor of 10–16 during dust events. During precipitation, however, particles in the coarse mode are scavenged by impaction mechanism. It is found that the larger particles are more efficiently scavenged. The degree of scavenged particle varies depending on the rainfall rate, raindrop size distribution and aerosol size distribution.     

Source characteristics of hazardous Chihuahuan Desert dust outbreaks

The Chihuahuan Desert region is an important contributor to atmospheric dust loading and transport in North America; however, specific dust sources in this region are poorly characterized. Major dust events frequently are characterized by multiple dust plumes developing nearly simultaneously over a large region. Remote sensing data were used to identify the source locations and associated land cover for the most extreme dust events in the Chihuahuan Desert since 2002. Analysis of infrared channels utilizing brightness temperature differences was used to analyze data from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites, from which dust sources were determined and located. This methodology was applied to the five dust events in the region that resulted in “hazardous” PM₁₀ levels in Texas per the USEPA’s Air Quality Index. Source locations determined from satellite images were used in conjunction with LANDSAT data and Google Earth? images to determine the corresponding land-surface features. Agricultural lands, playas, and their edges are pointed out as focus areas for dust emission, at least during the most intense events. The 130 dust plume initiation sites were relatively uniformly spaced over the landscape, not clumped into a few “hotspots,” suggesting the role of spatiotemporally random meteorological factors in determining major points of emission within and between dust storms. These findings provide an initial characterization of Chihuahuan Desert dust source locations and establish a baseline for continued research in determining potential locations for future dust outbreaks in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico.     

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future.

Implications: Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.     

Using PM10 geochemical maps for defining the origin of atmospheric pollution in Andalusia (Southern Spain)

In this work we present a detailed study of atmospheric PM₁₀ pollution in Andalusia (Southern Spain) based on geochemical maps. The study includes determination of PM₁₀ levels and bulk chemical composition with samples from 17 representative monitoring stations (rural, urban background, traffic hot spot, and urban zones with industrial influence) during 2007. The knowledge of background levels and concentrations of relevant chemical compounds and elements allows the quantification of the main sources of pollution in relevant cities and sites of ecological interest.In comparison to other stations in Spain and mainland Europe, PM₁₀ in Andalusia is characterized by high levels of crustal matter and secondary inorganic components (SIC). This has been attributed to the following causes: 1) High road traffic and industrial emissions, 2) High frequency of North African air mass outbreaks contributing between 3 and 4 μg m^?3 in western Andalusia and 4–7 μg m^?3 in eastern Andalusia, and 3) Climate factors such as low rainfall, dry soils favouring resuspension, and high photochemical activity.Atmospheric particulate matter in urban areas located in the vicinity of industrial estates is enriched in secondary inorganic compounds and metals. Three main hot spots have been identified according their high trace element concentrations: Huelva (As, Cu, Zn, Se, and Bi), Strait of Gibraltar (V, Ni, Cr, and Co) and Bailén (V and Ni). The transport of pollutants from cities and industrial estates to areas of ecological interest (e.g. Doñana National Park) has been found to cause the increase in background levels in a number of trace elements (e.g. As) in the air. An important outcome of this study is that geochemical maps of atmospheric matter are a powerful tool for illustrating spatial variation patterns of geochemical components and identifying specific pollution hot spots.     

Investigation of sources of atmospheric aerosol at a hot spot area in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Samples of fine and coarse fractions of airborne particulate matter were collected at the Farm Gate area in Dhaka from July 2001 to March 2002. Dhaka is a hot spot area with very high pollutant concentrations because of the proximity of major roadways. The samples were collected using a "Gent" stacked filter unit in two fractions of 0- to 2.2-microm and 2.2- to 10-microm sizes. The samples were analyzed for elemental concentrations by particle-induced X-ray excitation (PIXE) and for black carbon by reflectivity methods, respectively. The data were analyzed by positive matrix factorization (PMF) to identify the possible sources of atmospheric aerosols in this area. Six sources were found for both the coarse and fine PM fractions. The data sets were also analyzed by an expanded model to explore additional sources. Seven and six factors were obtained for coarse and fine PM fractions, respectively, in these analyses. The identified sources are motor vehicle, soil dust, emissions from construction activities, sea salt, biomass burning/brick kiln, resuspended/fugitive Pb, and two-stroke engines. From the expanded modeling, approximately 50% of the total PM2.2 mass can be attributed to motor vehicles, including two-stroke engine vehicle in this hot spot in Dhaka, whereas the PMF modeling indicates that 45% of the total PM2.2 mass is from motor vehicles. The PMF2 and expanded models could resolve approximately 4% and 3% of the total PM2.2 mass as resuspended/fugitive Pb, respectively. Although, Pb has been eliminated from gasoline in Bangladesh since July 1999, there still may be substantial amounts of accumulated lead in the dust near roadways as well as fugitive Pb emissions from battery reclaimation and other industries. Soil dust is the largest component of the coarse particle fraction (PM2.2-10) accounting for approximately 71% of the total PM2.2-10 mass in the expanded model, whereas from the PMF modeling, the dust (undifferentiated) contribution is approximately 49%.     

Spatial analysis of extreme precipitation in Sweden 1961-2000

Extreme daily precipitation in Sweden for the years 1961-2000 is analyzed with respect to spatial scale, regional variations and associated weather types. Correlograms based on a lag distance of 30 km estimated the spatial scale of variation of the annual mean precipitation, the 99th percentile of daily precipitation and the average of annual maximum daily precipitation to 100 km, 60-100 km and 40-70 km, respectively. Regions of correlation with respect to precipitation at 82 stations during days of extreme events are identified through Maximum-Likelihood Factor Analysis. Eleven factors are found to provide the optimum factor solution. Weather types for the days of extreme events are determined by an objective classification scheme, based on daily sea level pressure, which is modified by subjective inclusion of fronts. In total, 63% of the extreme events occurred during cyclonic weather types, 32% during frontal, 3% during directional and 2% during anticyclonic types. The frequency of the weather types during extreme events varied between the regions however.     

Demonstrating attainment of the air quality standards: integration of observations and model predictions into the probabilistic framework

This paper introduces an integrated observational-modeling approach to transform the deterministic nature of attainment demonstrations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) into the probabilistic framework. While the methods presented here can be used to address any air quality standard that is based on extreme values, this paper focuses on the application to the 1-hr and 8-hr NAAQS for ozone. Extreme value statistics and resampling techniques are applied to estimate the probability of exceeding the NAAQS for both 1-hr and 8-hr ozone concentrations. Within the integrated observation-modeling analysis approach, we show that the model-to-model differences in the predicted responses to emission reductions are smaller than the model-to-model differences in predicted absolute ozone concentrations. We illustrate that the emission reductions stemming from a real-world emission control strategy would substantially reduce the probability of exceeding the NAAQS over a large portion of the eastern United States, especially for the 8-hr average ozone concentrations.     

A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.     

Demonstrating Attainment of the Air Quality Standards: Integration of Observations and Model Predictions into the Probabilistic Framework

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces an integrated observational-modeling approach to transform the deterministic nature of attainment demonstrations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) into the probabilistic framework. While the methods presented here can be used to address any air quality standard that is based on extreme values, this paper focuses on the application to the 1-hr and 8-hr NAAQS for ozone. Extreme value statistics and resampling techniques are applied to estimate the probability of exceeding the NAAQS for both 1-hr and 8-hr ozone concentrations. Within the integrated observation-modeling analysis approach, we show that the model-to-model differences in the predicted responses to emission reductions are smaller than the model-to-model differences in predicted absolute ozone concentrations. We illustrate that the emission reductions stemming from a real-world emission control strategy would substantially reduce the probability of exceeding the NAAQS over a large portion of the eastern United States, especially for the 8-hr average ozone concentrations.     

Wind modeling of Chihuahuan Desert dust outbreaks

The Chihuahuan Desert region of North America is a significant source of mineral aerosols in the Western Hemisphere, and Chihuahuan Desert dust storms frequently impact the Paso del Norte (El Paso, USA/Ciudad Juarez, Mexico) metropolitan area. A statistical analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectory residence times evaluated airflow into El Paso on all days and on days with synoptic (non-convective) dust events in 2001–2005. The incremental probability—a measure of the areas most likely to have been traversed by air masses arriving at El Paso during dusty days—was only strongly positively associated with the region west–southwest of the city, a zone of known dust source areas. Focused case studies were made of major dust events on 15 April and 15 December 2003. Trajectories approached the surface and MM5 (NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model) wind speeds increased at locations consistent with dust sources observed in satellite imagery on those dates. Back trajectory and model analyses suggested that surface cyclones adjacent to the Chihuahuan Desert were associated with the extreme dust events, consistent with previous studies of dust storms in the Southern High Plains to the northeast. The recognition of these meteorological patterns serves as a forecast aid for prediction of dust events likely to impact the Paso del Norte.