Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast

In this study, we investigate the benefit for European ozone simulation of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two simulations over Europe using the regional (0.5 × 0.5°) CHIMERE CTM forced by global scale simulations based on the LMDz-INCA CTM. For summer 2005, ozone differences exceeding 20 ppb can be punctually found between these two simulations in the borders of the domain. The mean of the differences ranges between 0 and 3 ppb beyond 15° of the frontiers of the regional model.Correlations with ground-based ozone measurements at more than 400 stations are slightly increased by the use of daily boundary conditions. The simulation of the temporal variability is significantly enhanced in particular for the daily means and daily maxima. As expected, the gain is higher at the borders of the regional domain.The change of percentile distribution shows that the net impact of high temporal resolution boundary conditions is not of major concern for surface ozone peaks which are mainly due to local photochemistry. The use of daily boundary conditions is however necessary to correctly simulate concentrations in the 20–35 ppb range which are of crucial interest for human and vegetation exposure effects.     

PM10 pollution episodes as a function of synoptic climatology in a mountainous industrial area

In this study an attempt is made to investigate the prevailing meteorological conditions during days with high concentrations of PM10 (particles with diameter < 10 microns), collected in the Eordea mountain basin. This is an industrial area in the northwestern mountainous region of Greece. Over the 4-year data-gathering period, the days in which the United States Environmental Protection Agency 24-h PM10 standard was exceeded (episode days), were identified in relation to prevailing synoptic scale and local meteorological conditions. The results indicated that days with increased PM10 concentrations in this area can be grouped into four categories in relation to their synoptic circulation characteristics. The highest concentrations were found to be associated with stagnant conditions. Under these conditions, local circulations developed in the area, resulting in recirculation and accumulation of pollutants.     

Product: Guide/1981

Abstract

The impact of weather on air pollution was examined and evaluated for the city of Athens, Greece. We used an objectively defined synoptic classification scheme consisting of six summer and eight winter circulation types. This scheme was established using a combination of both factor and cluster analysis during 1954–1999. Surface and isobaric levels of 850 hPa data were used. Factor analysis combined with cluster analysis was used to derive circulation types based on surface meteorological data for the period 1954–1999 in Athens and on surface pressure grid data. The city was divided into three sectors according to the financial and social activities of the residents. To examine the spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations over Athens for each synoptic type, the synoptic circulation types were then correlated with both gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations measured in each sector between 1983 and 1999. Finally, extreme and severe episodic events were studied in terms of their meteorological and synoptic characteristics.     

On the relation between seasonal synoptic circulation types and spatial air quality characteristics in Athens,Greece

The impact of weather on air pollution was examined and evaluated for the city of Athens, Greece. We used an objectively defined synoptic classification scheme consisting of six summer and eight winter circulation types. This scheme was established using a combination of both factor and cluster analysis during 1954-1999. Surface and isobaric levels of 850 hPa data were used. Factor analysis combined with cluster analysis was used to derive circulation types based on surface meteorological data for the period 1954-1999 in Athens and on surface pressure grid data. The city was divided into three sectors according to the financial and social activities of the residents. To examine the spatial characteristics of pollutant concentrations over Athens for each synoptic type, the synoptic circulation types were then correlated with both gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations measured in each sector between 1983 and 1999. Finally, extreme and severe episodic events were studied in terms of their meteorological and synoptic characteristics.     

Mineralogical and chemical characterization of suspended atmospheric particles over the east Mediterranean based on synoptic-scale circulation patterns

Suspended atmospheric particles were collected in Israel in order to identify their nature and relationships with the major synoptic-scale circulation patterns. The particles were analyzed for their major and trace element concentrations and mineralogical composition. Samples were collected during three synoptic systems associated with desert dust storms: Red Sea trough, Sharav cyclone and cold depression, and during deep and shallow modes of Persian Gulf trough, which prevails in the summer months and is not associated with dust storms.All samples mostly contain particles smaller than 2 μm. The suspended desert dust is composed primarily of illite–smectite and calcite. Some indicative secondary minerals were found for each of the dust transporting synoptic systems (e.g., palygorskite for Red Sea trough). The bulk chemistry data support the mineralogical observations and reveal additional chemical signatures of each dust transporting system. For instance, Red Sea trough samples have significantly higher Ca/Al and Ca/Mg in the carbonate and Mg/Al in Al-silicate fraction than cold depression samples. Nevertheless, Sharav cyclone samples have intermediate values in spite of the fact that the source of the dust during these conditions is similar to cold depression (i.e., North Africa). Even though differences in the chemical and the mineralogical composition of desert dust do exist, this study reveals their overall chemical and mineralogical similarities.In contrast to the synoptic systems that carry desert dust, the inorganic fraction of the Persian Gulf trough samples contains significant amount (up to 50%) of non-mineral material that has a pronounced chemical signature in terms of major element concentrations (e.g., Al, Ca, Mg, Na, S) implying their anthropogenic nature, probably from countries around the Black Sea. This striking finding is indicative for atmospheric pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean region during the summer.     

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance: Part I—Ozone

This study examines ozone (O₃) predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5 and discusses potential factors influencing the model results. Daily maximum 8-h average O₃ levels are largely underpredicted when observed O₃ levels are above 85 ppb and overpredicted when they are below 35 ppb. Using a clustering approach, model performance was examined separately for several different synoptic regimes. Under the most common synoptic conditions of a typical summertime Bermuda High setup, the model showed good overall performance for O₃, while associations have been identified here between other, less frequent, synoptic regimes and the O₃ overprediction and underprediction biases. A sensitivity test between the CB-IV and CB05 chemical mechanisms showed that predictions of daily maximum 8-h average O₃ using CB05 were on average 7.3% higher than those using CB-IV. Boundary condition (BC) sensitivity tests show that the overprediction biases at low O₃ levels are more sensitive to the BC O₃ levels near the surface than BC concentrations aloft. These sensitivity tests also show the model performance for O₃ improved when using the global GEOS-CHEM BCs instead of default profiles. Simulations using the newest version of the CMAQ model (v4.6) showed a small improvement in O₃ predictions, particularly when vertical layers were not collapsed. Collectively, the results suggest that key synoptic weather patterns play a leading role in the prediction biases, and more detailed study of these episodes are needed to identify further modeling improvements.     

Patterns of crop cover under future climates

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.     

Analysis of air quality observations with the aid of the source-receptor relationship approach

In this study, an attempt was made to analyze time series of air quality measurements (O3, SO2, SO4(2-), NOx) conducted at a remote place in the eastern Mediterranean (Finokalia at Crete Island in 1999) to obtain concrete information on potential contributions from emission sources. For the definition of a source-receptor relationship, advanced meteorological and dispersion models appropriate to identify "areas of influence" have been used. The model tools used are the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and the Lagrangian-type particle dispersion model (forward and backward in time), with capabilities to derive influence functions and definition of "areas of influence." When high levels of pollutants have been measured at the remote location of Finokalia, particles are released from this location (receptor) and traced backward in time. The influence function derived from particle distributions characterizes dispersion conditions in the atmosphere and also provides information on potential contributions from emission sources within the modeling domain to this high concentration. As was shown in the simulation results, the experimental site of Finokalia in Crete is influenced during the selected case studies, primarily by pollutants emitted from the urban conglomerate of Athens. Secondarily, it is influenced by polluted air masses arriving from Italy and/or the Black Sea Region. For some specific cases, air pollutants monitored at Finokalia were possibly related to war activities in the West Balkan Region (Kosovo).     

Synoptic conditions associated with high carbon monoxide episodes at a coastal station in Hong Kong

The effect of different synoptic environments and the associated meteorological conditions on the transport of CO to a coastal station located at the southeastern tip of Hong Kong are examined. Based on the 1994 data, we found that the appearance of a Siberia high pressure, the passage of a cold front, the passage of a trough, and the existence of a tropical cyclone to the east to southeast of Hong Kong frequently gave rise to continental outflow from a northeasterly to a northwesterly direction. This continental airstream, which is highly contaminated with anthropogenic air pollutants, raised the CO concentration at the station to a level significantly above the oceanic value (measured to be around 81 pbbv under persistent maritime flow conditions). We also identified 20 high CO episodes in which the CO concentration of at least two consecutive hourly means in a given month exceeded two standard deviations from the monthly mean. All these episodes were directly associated with one of the above four types of synoptic environments with the winds being moderate to light northwesterly to northeasterly.     

Linking a one-dimensional pesticide fate model to a three-dimensional groundwater model to simulate pollution risks of shallow and deep groundwater underlying fractured till

The one-dimensional pesticide fate model MACRO was loose-linked to the three-dimensional discrete fracture/matrix diffusion model FRAC3DVS to describe transport of the pesticide mecoprop in a fractured moraine till and local sand aquifer (5-5.5 m depth) overlying a regional limestone aquifer (16 m depth) at Havdrup, Denmark. Alternative approaches to describe the upper boundary in the groundwater model were examined. Field-scale simulations were run to compare a uniform upper boundary condition with a spatially variable upper boundary derived from Monte-Carlo simulations with MACRO. Plot-scale simulations were run to investigate the influence of the temporal resolution of the upper boundary conditions for fluxes in the groundwater model and the effects of different assumptions concerning the macropore/fracture connectivity between the two models. The influence of within-field variability of leaching on simulated mecoprop concentrations in the local aquifer was relatively small. A fully transient simulation with FRAC3DVS gave 20 times larger leaching to the regional aquifer compared to the case with steady-state water flow, assuming full connectivity with respect to macropores/fractures across the boundary between the two models. For fully transient simulations 'disconnecting' the macropores/fractures at the interface between the two models reduced leaching by a factor 24. A fully connected, transient simulation with FRAC3DVS, with spatially uniform upper boundary fluxes derived from a MACRO simulation with 'effective' parameters is therefore recommended for assessing leaching risks to the regional aquifer, at this, and similar sites.     

Analysis of Air Quality Observations with the Aid of the Source-Receptor Relationship Approach

Abstract

In this study, an attempt was made to analyze time series of air quality measurements (O₃, SO₂, SO₄ ^2?NO_x) conducted at a remote place in the eastern Mediterranean (Finokalia at Crete Island in 1999) to obtain concrete information on potential contributions from emission sources. For the definition of a source-receptor relationship, advanced meteorological and dispersion models appropriate to identify “areas of influence” have been used. The model tools used are the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and the Lagrangian-type particle dispersion model (forward and backward in time), with capabilities to derive influence functions and definition of “areas of influence.” When high levels of pollutants have been measured at the remote location of Finokalia, particles are released from this location (receptor) and traced backward in time. The influence function derived from particle distributions characterizes dispersion conditions in the atmosphere and also provides information on potential contributions from emission sources within the modeling domain to this high concentration. As was shown in the simulation results, the experimental site of Finokalia in Crete is influenced during the selected case studies, primarily by pollutants emitted from the urban conglomerate of Athens. Secondarily, it is influenced by polluted air masses arriving from Italy and/or the Black Sea Region. For some specific cases, air pollutants monitored at Finokalia were possibly related to war activities in the West Balkan Region (Kosovo).     

A climatology of regional background ozone at different elevations in Switzerland (1992–1998)

The ozone records of several monitoring stations in Switzerland from 1992 to 1998 are investigated with respect to the variability observed during regional background conditions, i.e. conditions with little detectable local or regional-scale influences as evident by NO_x and CO concentrations. The sites cover different altitudes between 490 and 3600 m asl. They are characteristic of near-surface conditions, the top of the planetary boundary layer or residual layer, the complex atmosphere in an alpine valley, and the free troposphere. The results reveal a distinctly different ozone variability (diurnal cycles, seasonal cycles, trends) during regional background conditions compared to all days. The estimated annual average ozone concentration under these conditions is between 33 and 50 ppb, dependent on altitude, with a spring maximum and an autumn/winter minimum. Differences in background ozone are found depending on the synoptic weather type. For all sites a positive ozone trend is calculated for background conditions that is larger than for all data. For the latter, the trends appear to be stronger positive for the last 7 years than for the last 11 years.     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.     

Isoprene above the Eastern Mediterranean: Seasonal variation and contribution to the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere

Isoprene is one of the most important biogenic volatile organic compounds with large terrestrial emissions and comparatively a small oceanic source on a global scale. This marine source seems to strongly depend on environmental parameters such as phytoplankton abundance, light, temperature, wind speed, and thus, to be highly variable. However, this source can consequently affect the chemistry of the marine boundary layer on a local or mesoscale. The present study investigates the factors that control isoprene levels and estimates the marine source of isoprene and its role in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere at a coastal site in the East Mediterranean. More than 2000 measurements of isoprene have been conducted at Finokalia sampling station on the island of Crete over an 8-month period from February to October 2004. Isoprene varies between 5 and 1200 pptv with the highest values observed in summer. The origin of the air masses determines the atmospheric abundance and the prevailing source of isoprene. According to chemical box model calculations, during daytime the isoprene observed under marine conditions is reducing hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO₂) radicals by up to 26% and 13%, respectively, whereas, it can increase the sum of peroxy radicals by a factor of 4. At night, isoprene of marine origin is depressing nitrate radicals by up to 25% and increases the low nighttime levels of OH and HO₂ radicals by up to 25% and 30%, respectively. The seawater emissions of isoprene in the area are estimated between 10⁸ and 6×10⁹ molecules cm⁻² s⁻¹ with a strong seasonal variability.     

Variation of dust layer height in the northern Taklimakan Desert in April 2002

LIDAR observations were conducted in the northern Taklimakan Desert to investigate the vertical distribution of dust in April 2002. During the observation period, a dust outbreak occurred on 13 April, remaining over the desert for several days. Despite only slight variations being observed in dust layer height before the dust event, marked diurnal variation in dust layer height was observed after the dust event. In this study, we conducted two numerical simulations to investigate differences in the variation exhibited by the dust layer heights before and after the dust event, and assessed the influence of meteorological conditions on this variation. The simulated results show that the clearly diurnal variation in dust layer height is strongly influenced by local circulation which is affected by the characteristic topography and synoptic conditions of the Tarim Basin.     

Space-time analysis of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 1 air quality simulations

This study presents an evaluation of summertime ozone concentrations over North America (NA) and Europe (EU) using the database generated from Phase 1 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The analysis focuses on identifying temporal and spatial features that can be used to stratify operational model evaluation metrics and to test the extent to which the various modeling systems can replicate the features seen in the observations. Using a synoptic map typing approach, it is demonstrated that model performance varies with meteorological conditions associated with specific synoptic-scale flow patterns over both eastern NA and EU. For example, the root mean square error of simulated daily maximum 8-hr ozone was twice as high when cloud fractions were high compared with when cloud fractions were low over eastern NA. Furthermore, results show that over both NA and EU the regional models participating in AQMEII were able to better reproduce the observed variance in ambient ozone levels than the global model used to specify chemical boundary conditions, although the variance simulated by almost all regional models is still less that the observed variance on all spatiotemporal scales. In addition, all modeling systems showed poor correlations with observed fluctuations on the intraday time scale over both NA and EU. Furthermore, a methodology is introduced to distinguish between locally influenced and regionally representative sites for the purpose of model evaluation. Results reveal that all models have worse model performance at locally influenced sites. Overall, the analyses presented in this paper show how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance statistics and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features, especially at scales the modeling systems are designed to capture.

Implications: The analyses presented in this paper demonstrate how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features. Decisions for the improvement of regional air quality models should be based on the information derived from only regionally representative sites.     

辽宁省区域性空气污染的天气分型

应用2003-2004年主要污染物浓度和气象资料,对辽宁省全年的PM10产生的区域性3级空气污染进行环流分型,按污染源划分为冬季煤烟型、春季沙尘型和夏秋大雾型.其中冬季煤烟型又分为长白山高压地形槽型、高压内部均压场型、东北高压脊,西部倒槽型、蒙古高压前均压场、蒙古低压前均压场、高压内部小范围均压场型6个型;春季沙尘型分为东北低压型、南大风型和干冷锋北大风型;夏秋大雾型分为低压槽型和低压前均压场.上述类型几乎概括了近两年PM10 3级污染的所有个例,为大气环境质量预报、总量控制等提供依据.     

Evaluation of near surface ozone in air quality simulations forced by a regional climate model over Europe for the period 1991–2000

This study aims to evaluate near surface ozone simulated with the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx against ozone measurements from the EMEP database for the recent decade 1991–2000. The RegCM3/CAMx simulations were performed on a 50 km × 50 km grid over Europe driven either by ERA-40 reanalysis (hereafter referred as ERA simulation) or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 (hereafter referred as ECHAM simulation). A set of statistical metrics is used for the model evaluation, including temporal correlation coefficient, the ratio of the standard deviations and the bias of simulated versus observed values. Overall, a good agreement is found for both ERA and ECHAM simulations at the majority of the selected EMEP stations in all metrics throughout the year based either on monthly or daily ozone values. Based on these results, it is assessed that the modelling system RegCM3/CAMx is suitable to be used for present and future regional climate-air quality simulations with emphasis on near surface ozone. The ERA simulations reproduce more accurately the observed ozone values in comparison to ECHAM simulations because the meteorology of the ERA experiment is closer to real atmospheric conditions than the GCM based experiment. On a seasonal basis, both ERA and ECHAM simulations exhibit a seasonally dependent bias, with winter and spring ozone values being generally under-estimated by the model and summer and autumn values being slightly overestimated. This seasonally dependent bias is also evident from median and peak midday ozone values. However, the highest observed midday ozone peaks in summer, with values higher than 80 ppbv, could not be captured either by ERA or ECHAM simulations. An analysis of day-time and night-time ERA and ECHAM modelled ozone values shows that CAMx performs better during the day-time.     

Sensitivity of mesoscale simulations of land–sea breeze to boundary layer turbulence parameterization

The sensitivity of mesoscale simulations of land and sea breeze circulation on the south east coast in the Chennai region of India to boundary layer turbulence parameterizations is studied using the community based PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. High-resolution simulations are carried out with nested domains. Four widely used boundary layer turbulence parameterization schemes are selected for the study. Two of these schemes (Blackadar (BK) and medium range forecast (MRF)) are simple first-order non-local schemes and the other two (Mellor–Yamada (MY) Eta planetary boundary layer (PBL) and Gayno–Seaman (GS)) are more complex 1.5 order local schemes that include a prognostic equation for turbulence kinetic energy. The other physics used in the model are identical. The micro-meteorological tower and flux observations, GP sonde and radiosonde observations from the study region are used to compare the simulated mean variables. In spite of differences in complexity, all the schemes show similar capability in simulating the boundary layer temperature, humidity and winds. The land–sea breeze circulation and internal boundary layer formation, which are special phenomena at the coastal site, could be simulated by all the schemes. The BK, MRF schemes produced boundary layers that are more mixed than those produced with the MY and GS schemes. While all the schemes underestimated surface sensible heat fluxes during stable night conditions they are reasonably simulated during daytime by MRF and BK schemes. Among the tested schemes, the BK scheme has reasonably produced the PBL height, humidity, wind fields and proves suitable for operational forecasting. The results suggest that there is little improvement in overall accuracy of predictions with more complex turbulence parameterizations.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.