Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g(s)) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO(3)SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g(s) in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f(phen) and f(SWP) were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites.     

Interfacial transfer velocities of ozone dry deposition over agricultural soils: experimental and theoretical analysis

A mathematical dry deposition model was developed and an experiment performed to verify that the interfacial transfer velocity (V(S)) of ozone dry deposition includes the interfacial reactive velocity (V(Sr)) and interfacial kinetic velocity (V(Sk)), as determined by measuring the ozone depletion over agricultural field soils in a dry deposition chamber. Experimental results indicate that the chemical reaction (O3 + NO --> NO2 + O2) produces the reactive velocity. Observed interfacial transfer velocities depend on nitrogen oxide emission (NO) and soil temperature (T(S)). Additionally, observed kinetic velocities of conditioned field soils increased linearly with soil temperature. Moreover, observed reactive velocities of field soils increased exponentially with soil temperature, and depend on the emission rate of nitrogen oxide. Results in this study demonstrate that interfacial transfer velocities are variable velocities for long-term transportation, that influenced factors are chemical kinetics, thermodynamics and biochemical mechanisms.     

Sub-canopy deposition of ozone in a stand of cutleaf coneflower

Although there has been a great deal of research on ozone, interest in exposure of native, herbaceous species is relatively recent and it is still not clear what role the pollutant has in their ecological fitness. The ozone exposure of a plant is usually expressed in terms of the concentration above the canopy or as a time-weighted index. However, to understand the physiological effects of ozone it is necessary to quantify the ozone flux to individual leaves as they develop, which requires knowing the deposition velocity and concentration of the pollutant as a function of height throughout the plant canopy. We used a high-order closure model of sub-canopy turbulence to estimate ozone profiles in stands of cutleaf coneflower (Rudbeckia laciniata L.) located in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. The model was run for periods coinciding with a short field study, during which we measured vertical concentration profiles of ozone along with measurements of atmospheric turbulence and other meteorological and plant variables. Predictions of ozone profiles by the model are compared with observations throughout the canopy.     

Simple model for estimating dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction in a polluted nocturnal boundary layer

Determining the destructions of both ozone and odd oxygen, O_x, in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is important to evaluate the regional ozone budget and overnight ozone accumulation. This work develops a simple method to determine the dry deposition velocity of ozone and its destruction at a polluted nocturnal boundary layer. The destruction of O_x can also be determined simultaneously. The method is based on O₃ and NO₂ profiles and their surface measurements. Linkages between the dry deposition velocities of O₃ and NO₂ and between the dry deposition loss of O_x and its chemical loss are constructed and used. Field measurements are made at an agricultural site to demonstrate the application of the model. The model estimated nocturnal O₃ dry deposition velocities from 0.13 to 0.19 cm s^?1, very close to those previously obtained for similar land types. Additionally, dry deposition and chemical reactions account for 60 and 40% of the overall nocturnal ozone loss, respectively; ozone dry deposition accounts for 50% of the overall nocturnal loss of O_x, dry deposition of NO₂ accounts for another 20%, and chemical reactions account for the remaining 30%. The proposed method enables the use of measurements made in typical ozone field studies to evaluate various nocturnal destructions of O₃ and O_x in a polluted environment.     

Modelling annual pasture dynamics: Application to stomatal ozone deposition

Modelling ozone (O₃) deposition for impact risk assessment is still poorly developed for herbaceous vegetation, particularly for Mediterranean annual pastures. High inter-annual climatic variability in the Mediterranean area makes it difficult to develop models characterizing gas exchange behaviour and air pollutant absorption suitable for risk assessment. This paper presents a new model to estimate stomatal conductance (g_s) of Trifolium subterraneum, a characteristic species of dehesa pastures. The MEDPAS (MEDiterranean PAStures) model couples 3 modules estimating soil water content (SWC), vegetation growth and g_s. The g_s module is a reparameterized version of the stomatal component of the EMEP DO₃SE O₃ deposition model. The MEDPAS model was applied to two contrasting years representing typical dry and humid springs respectively and with different O₃ exposures. The MEDPAS model reproduced realistically the g_s seasonal and inter-annual variations observed in the field. SWC was identified as the major driver of differences across years. Despite the higher O₃ exposure in the dry year, meteorological conditions favoured 2.1 times higher g_s and 56 day longer growing season in the humid year compared to the dry year. This resulted in higher ozone fluxes absorbed by T. subterraneum in the humid year. High inter-family variability was found in gas exchange rates, therefore limiting the relevance of single species O₃ deposition flux modelling for dehesa pastures. Stomatal conductance dynamics at the canopy level need to be considered for more accurate O₃ flux modelling for present and future climate scenarios in the Mediterranean area.     

Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis

In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final analysis, it is recommended that systems ecology be applied in examining the joint effects of O(3), carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B radiation on forest ecosystems.     

Modelling stomatal ozone flux and deposition to grassland communities across Europe

Regional scale modelling of both ozone deposition and the risk of ozone impacts is poorly developed for grassland communities. This paper presents new predictions of stomatal ozone flux to grasslands at five different locations in Europe, using a mechanistic model of canopy development for productive grasslands to generate time series of leaf area index and soil water potential as inputs to the stomatal component of the DO(3)SE ozone deposition model. The parameterisation of both models was based on Lolium perenne, a dominant species of productive pasture in Europe. The modelled seasonal time course of stomatal ozone flux to both the whole canopy and to upper leaves showed large differences between climatic zones, which depended on the timing of the start of the growing season, the effect of soil water potential, and the frequency of hay cuts. Values of modelled accumulated flux indices and the AOT40 index showed a five-fold difference between locations, but the locations with the highest flux differed depending on the index used; the period contributing to the accumulation of AOT40 did not always coincide with the modelled period of active ozone canopy uptake. Use of a fixed seasonal profile of leaf area index in the flux model produced very different estimates of annual accumulated total canopy and leaf ozone flux when compared with the flux model linked to a simulation of canopy growth. Regional scale model estimates of both the risks of ozone impacts and of total ozone deposition will be inaccurate unless the effects of climate and management in modifying grass canopy growth are incorporated.     

Sensitivity analysis of radionuclide migration in compacted bentonite: a mechanistic model approach

Mechanistic model calculations for the migration of Cs, Ra, Am and Pb in compacted bentonite have been carried out to evaluate sensitivities with respect to different parameter variations. A surface chemical speciation/electric double layer model is used to calculate: (i) porewater composition and radionuclide speciation in solution and at the bentonite surface, yielding the distribution of mobile and sorbed species and (ii) interaction of diffusing species with negatively charged pore walls to obtain diffusion parameters. The basic scenario considers the interaction of compacted bentonite with a fresh-type groundwater; variations include the presence of bentonite impurities and saline groundwater. It is shown that these scenarios result in significant variations of porewater composition that affect migration via three mechanisms that can partly compensate each other: (1) effects on sorption through radionuclide complexation in solution, and competition of major cations for surface sites; (2) changes in radionuclide solution speciation leading to different diffusing species under different conditions; (3) effects on diffusion through changes in the electric double layer properties of the clay pores as a function of ionic strength.     

Use of an indoor air quality model (IAQM) to estimate indoor ozone levels

Currently, outdoor ozone levels in many U.S. cities exceed the primary health-based national ambient air quality standard. While outdoor ozone levels are an important measure of the severity of those exceedances, people typically spend more than 80 percent of their time indoors, where ozone levels are lower. Indoor ozone levels range from 10 to 80 percent of outdoor levels, with many people receiving a substantial portion of their ozone exposure while indoors. This paper uses an indoor air quality model (IAQM) to estimate indoor ozone levels by microenvironment type (home, office, and vehicle) and configuration (windows open, windows closed, older construction, weatherized, and air conditioned). The formulation of IAQM is discussed, along with specification of model parameters for ozone. The multicompartment version of IAQM is described, with a single-compartment version used for the analyses. IAQM-calculated ozone indoor-outdoor ratios compare well with research-reported values. Results indicate that ozone peak-concentration indoor-outdoor ratios range as follows: home--0.65 (windows open), 0.36 (air conditioned), 0.23 (typical construction, windows closed), and 0.05 (energy-efficient construction, windows closed); office--0.82 (heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems supplying 100 percent outdoor air), 0.60 (typical HVAC), and 0.32 (energy-efficient HVAC); and vehicle--0.41 (85 mph), 0.33 (55 mph), and 0.21 (10 mph). Analysis results are presented to characterize IAQM's sensitivity to assumed model parameters.     

An ozone budget for the UK: using measurements from the national ozone monitoring network; measured and modelled meteorological data,and a 'big-leaf' resistance analogy model of dry deposition

Data from the UK national air-quality monitoring network are used to calculate an annual mass budget for ozone (O3) production and loss in the UK boundary layer during 1996. Monthly losses by dry deposition are quantified from 1 km x 1 km scale maps of O(3) concentration and O(3) deposition velocities based on a big-leaf resistance analogy. The quantity of O(3) deposition varies from approximately 50 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the winter to over 200 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the summer when vegetation is actively absorbing O(3). The net O(3) production or loss in the UK boundary layer is found by selecting days when the UK is receiving "clean" Atlantic air from the SW to NW. In these conditions, the difference in O(3) concentration observed at Mace Head and a rural site on the east coast of the UK indicates the net O(3) production or loss within the UK boundary layer. A simple box model is then used to convert the concentration difference into a mass. The final budget shows that for most of the year the UK is a net sink for O(3) (-25 to -800 Gg-O(3) month(-1)) with production only exceeding losses in the photochemically active summer months (+45 Gg-O(3) month(-1)).     

Sensitivity of ozone to precursor emissions in urban Beijing with a Monte Carlo scheme

In order to understand the formation mechanisms of high surface ozone and identify the main contributor sources in Beijing, this study investigates the sensitivity of surface ozone to NO, NO₂ and nine types of NMVOC emissions during a photochemical smog episode. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis scheme with fifty simulations is established based on the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS). At every simulation, each of the eleven precursor emissions is perturbed with a distinct set of perturbations. The sensitivities of ozone to emissions are identified by multiple linear regressions. The stability of sensitivity results is validated by two experiments with standard deviations of log-normal perturbations set as 30% and 50% respectively. The sensitivity results suggest that the current high surface ozone is strongly stimulated by NMVOC emissions. Among NMVOC emissions, formaldehyde, ethylene and olefins emissions present the greatest impacts on ozone. On the other hand, NOx emissions have a strong inhibitory effect on ozone formation, even after 50% NOx emission reduction. This indicates that the current ozone formation in Beijing is under NOx-saturated conditions. A transition of ozone formation is observed from NOx-saturated to NOx-limited sensitivity behavior with a 75% reduction of NOx emissions. This study gives the implication that abatement of the four NMVOC types mentioned above could be efficient on reducing the high levels of surface ozone in central urban Beijing, while inadequate abatement in NOx emissions probably induces reverse effects.     

Atmospheric dynamics and ozone cycles related to nitrogen deposition in the western Mediterranean

Recent results from EU-sponsored projects have shed new light on the workings of the atmosphere in the Mediterranean Basin, where a large airmass becomes trapped and nearly stagnant over the sea during the summer. This work reviews the developments which have led to our present understanding of air pollution dynamics and associated meteorological processes in this region. In summer, the sea breezes combine with upslope winds to create recirculations along the coasts and within the western Mediterranean basin, with residence times in the order of days. Under strong insolation these recirculations become "large natural photo-chemical reactors" where most of the NOx emissions and other precursors are transformed into oxidants, acidic compounds, aerosols and ozone, which can exceed European Union directives for several months of the year. The objective of this paper is to evaluate available experimental evidence and complementary modelling results to help in the interpretation of observed ozone cycles and to anticipate possible scenarios for anthropogenic nitrogen deposition in the region.     

A neural network model forecasting for prediction of daily maximum ozone concentration in an industrialized urban area

Prediction of ambient ozone concentrations in urban areas would allow evaluation of such factors as compliance and noncompliance with EPA requirements. Though ozone prediction models exist, there is still a need for more accurate models. Development of these models is difficult because the meteorological variables and photochemical reactions involved in ozone formation are complex. In this study, we developed a neural network model for forecasting daily maximum ozone levels. We then compared the neural network's performance with those of two traditional statistical models, regression, and Box-Jenkins ARIMA. The neural network model for forecasting daily maximum ozone levels is different from the two statistical models because it employs a pattern recognition approach. Such an approach does not require specification of the structural form of the model. The results show that the neural network model is superior to the regression and Box-Jenkins ARIMA models we tested.     

A theoretical investigation of the pressure and temperature dependence of atmospheric ozone deposition to trees

Methods for describing the exposure patterns of forests to atmospheric ozone concentrations are compared with special emphasis on the situation at high altitudes, such as the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern USA. Limitations to the use of ozone concentration as mass per unit volume are discussed and a correction for temperature and pressure changes is derived. If identical ozone mass concentrations were measured at two sites separated by 2000 m elevation, the ozone flux at the lower site would exceed the flux at the higher site by 4-8% due to temperature and pressure effects on both air volume and ozone deposition velocity. It is recommended that ozone exposures be described in terms of 'flux-corrected' mass concentrations or volumetric mixing ratios when ambient ozone data from sites at different altitudes are to be compared.     

Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study

The goal of this modeling study is to determine how concentrations of ozone respond to changes in climate over the eastern USA. The sensitivities of average ozone concentrations to temperature, wind speed, absolute humidity, mixing height, cloud liquid water content and optical depth, cloudy area, precipitation rate, and precipitating area extent are investigated individually. The simulation period consists of July 12–21, 2001, during which an ozone episode occurred over the Southeast. The ozone metrics used include daily maximum 8 h average O₃ concentration and number of grid cells exceeding the US EPA ambient air-quality standard. The meteorological factor that had the largest impact on both ozone metrics was temperature, which increased daily maximum 8 h average O₃ by 0.34 ppb K⁻¹ on average over the simulation domain. Absolute humidity had a smaller but appreciable effect on daily maximum 8 h average O₃ (−0.025 ppb for each percent increase in absolute humidity). While domain-average responses to changes in wind speed, mixing height, cloud liquid water content, and optical depth were rather small, these factors did have appreciable local effects in many areas. Temperature also had the largest effect on air-quality standard exceedances; a 2.5 K temperature increase led to a 30% increase in the area exceeding the EPA standard. Wind speed and mixing height also had appreciable effects on ozone air-quality standard exceedances.     

Sensitivity analysis and evaluation of microFacCO: a microscale motor vehicle emission factor model for CO emissions

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a microscale emission factor model (MicroFacCO) for predicting real-time site-specific motor vehicle CO emissions to input variables, as well as a limited field study evaluation of the model. The sensitivity analysis has shown that MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to vehicle fleet composition, speed, and ambient temperature. For the present U.S. traffic fleet, the CO emission rate (g/mi) is increased by more than 500% at 5 mph in comparison with a speed greater than 40 mph and by approximately 67% at ambient temperatures of 45 degrees F and > or = 95 degrees F in comparison with an ambient temperature of 75 degrees F. The input variable "emission failure standard rate" is more sensitive to estimating emission rates in the 1990s than in the 2000s. The estimation of emission rates is not very sensitive to relative humidity. MicroFacCO can also be applied to examine the contribution of emission rates per vehicle class and model year. The model evaluation is presented for tunnel studies at five locations. In general, this evaluation study found good agreement between the measured and the modeled emissions. These analyses and evaluations have identified the need for additional studies to update the high-speed (>35 mph) air conditioning (A/C) correction factor and to add effects due to road grades. MicroFacCO emission estimates are very sensitive to the emission standard failure rate. Therefore, the model performance can be greatly improved by using a local emission standard failure rate.     

Sensitivity analysis of mass balance receptor modeling: Methyl chloride as an indicator of wood smoke

The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach to stability analysis of the Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) receptor model is extended to incorporate uncertainties in both source and ambient compositions. SVD is applied to determine the improved precision with which the impact of residential wood smoke can be estimated by including methyl chloride in a CMB analysis. Wood smoke impacts in Hillsboro and Medford, Oregon, are examined. The results indicate that including methyl chloride will dramatically improve the precision of estimating wood smoke impacts for Medford, while estimates for Hillsboro are changed to a much lesser extent. This result is reasonable since the Medford airshed includes many industrial sources of particulate matter with chemical compositions similar to residential wood smoke, while Hillsboro is predominantly a residential community. The precision improvements estimated by SVD are verified by CMB analysis of a series of ambient samples collected in Hillsboro. Finally, the applicability of SVD as a receptor model study design tool is discussed.     

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and high humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique, used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] Air Quality System [AQS] Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site, located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990–2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000 and 2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, particularly lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), whereas 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post 2000 could be attributed to NO_x emission reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000–2016 and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990–2016.

Implications: The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. The KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time series into short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990 and 2016 at an urban site in the greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the greater Houston area.