Validation of road vehicle and traffic emission models – A review and meta-analysis

Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas, and there is an increasing need to estimate its contribution precisely so that pollution-reduction measures (e.g. emission standards, scrapage programs, traffic management, ITS) are designed and implemented appropriately. This paper presents a meta-analysis of 50 studies dealing with the validation of various types of traffic emission model, including ‘average speed’, ‘traffic situation’, ‘traffic variable’, ‘cycle variable’, and ‘modal’ models. The validation studies employ measurements in tunnels, ambient concentration measurements, remote sensing, laboratory tests, and mass-balance techniques. One major finding of the analysis is that several models are only partially validated or not validated at all. The mean prediction errors are generally within a factor of 1.3 of the observed values for CO₂, within a factor of 2 for HC and NO_x, and within a factor of 3 for CO and PM, although differences as high as a factor of 5 have been reported. A positive mean prediction error for NO_x (i.e. overestimation) was established for all model types and practically all validation techniques. In the case of HC, model predictions have been moving from underestimation to overestimation since the 1980s. The large prediction error for PM may be associated with different PM definitions between models and observations (e.g. size, measurement principle, exhaust/non-exhaust contribution).Statistical analyses show that the mean prediction error is generally not significantly different (p < 0.05) when the data are categorised according to model type or validation technique. Thus, there is no conclusive evidence that demonstrates that more complex models systematically perform better in terms of prediction error than less complex models. In fact, less complex models appear to perform better for PM. Moreover, the choice of validation technique does not systematically affect the result, with the exception of a CO underprediction when the validation is based on ambient concentration measurements and inverse modelling. The analysis identified two vital elements currently lacking in traffic emissions modelling: 1) guidance on the allowable error margins for different applications/scales, and 2) estimates of prediction errors. It is recommended that current and future emission models incorporate the capability to quantify prediction errors, and that clear guidelines are developed internationally with respect to expected accuracy.     

Continental and global sulfur budgets—I. Anthropogenic SO2 emission

The aim of this study is to determine the atmospheric sulfur budgets of the continents in the absence of any comprehensive published work on this subject to date. In this first part the anthropogenic SO₂ emission inventories of the continents are calculated on the basis of a data survey on the consumption of S-containing fossil fuels, their sulfur contents, the production statistics of SO₂ emitting industrial processes, and the appropriate emission factors. It is found that at present about 2.4 Tg, 4.1 Tg, 0.7 Tg and 18.3 Tg Sy⁻¹ are emitted in the form of SO₂ from Africa, South America, Oceania and Asia, respectively. The greatest increase in the anthropogenic SO₂ emission during the last decade is calculated for Asia.     

Mobile source emission inventories--monthly or annual average inputs to MOBILE6?

In many urban areas, on-road vehicles are the biggest contributing source category of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on a recently completed emission inventory study for three counties in central Florida, the major source by far of anthropogenic VOCs and NOx was on-road mobile sources, even though other sources (such as construction equipment, lawn and garden equipment, and various point sources) were also significant. Although there is specific guidance for conducting an ozone-season inventory for mobile sources, there is a lack of detailed guidance as to how to employ the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) latest mobile source emission factor program, MOBILE6, for an annual inventory. Several of the MOBILE6 inputs that significantly influence emission factors (e.g., temperature) can vary widely throughout the year, and the annual average value may not be appropriate. Rather, it may be better to utilize monthly values of these parameters. This paper investigated the sensitivity of the annual emission inventory results to using annual or monthly values of temperature, Reid Vapor Pressure of gasoline, and humidity. The results show that, for a three-county area in central Florida representing metropolitan Orlando, the annual emission inventory based on the sum of individual monthly averages is not significantly different from that calculated using one set of annual average inputs to MOBILE6.     

Assimilative capacity–based emission load management in a critically polluted industrial cluster

In the present study, a modified approach was adopted to quantify the assimilative capacity (i.e., the maximum emission an area can take without violating the permissible pollutant standards) of a major industrial cluster (Manali, India) and to assess the effectiveness of adopted air pollution control measures at the region. Seasonal analysis of assimilative capacity was carried out corresponding to critical, high, medium, and low pollution levels to know the best and worst conditions for industrial operations. Bottom-up approach was employed to quantify sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <10 μm; PM₁₀) emissions at a fine spatial resolution of 500 × 500 m² in Manali industrial cluster. AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model), an U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory model, was used for estimating assimilative capacity. Results indicated that 22.8 tonnes/day of SO₂, 7.8 tonnes/day of NO₂, and 7.1 tonnes/day of PM₁₀ were emitted from the industries of Manali. The estimated assimilative capacities for SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀ were found to be 16.05, 17.36, and 19.78 tonnes/day, respectively. It was observed that the current SO₂ emissions were exceeding the estimated safe load by 6.7 tonnes/day, whereas PM₁₀ and NO₂ were within the safe limits. Seasonal analysis of assimilative capacity showed that post-monsoon had the lowest load-carrying capacity, followed by winter, summer, and monsoon seasons, and the allowable SO₂ emissions during post-monsoon and winter seasons were found to be 35% and 26% lower, respectively, when compared with monsoon season.

Implications: The authors present a modified approach for quantitative estimation of assimilative capacity of a critically polluted Indian industrial cluster. The authors developed a geo-coded fine-resolution PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂ emission inventory for Manali industrial area and further quantitatively estimated its season-wise assimilative capacities corresponding to various pollution levels. This quantitative representation of assimilative capacity (in terms of emissions), when compared with routine qualitative representation, provides better data for quantifying carrying capacity of an area. This information helps policy makers and regulatory authorities to develop an effective mitigation plan for air pollution abatement.     

Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850–1990

It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.     

Characterization of dissolved organic matter in fogwater by excitation–emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) present in fogwater samples collected in southeastern Louisiana and central-eastern China has been characterized using excitation–emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy. The goal of the study was to illustrate the utility of fluorescence for obtaining information on the large fraction of organic carbon in fogwaters (typically >40% by weight) that defies characterization in terms of specific chemical compounds without the difficulty inherent in obtaining sufficient fogwater volume to isolate DOM for assessment using other spectroscopic and chemical analyses. Based on the findings of previous studies using other characterization methods, it was anticipated that the unidentified organic carbon fraction would have characteristic peaks associated with humic substances and fluorescent amino acids. Both humic- and protein-like fluorophores were observed in the fogwater spectra and fluorescence-derived indices for the fogwater had similar values to those of soil and sediment porewater. Greater biological character was observed in samples with higher organic carbon concentrations. Fogwaters are shown to contain a mixture of terrestrially- and microbially-derived fluorescent organic material, which is expected to be derived from an array of different sources, such as suspended soil and dust particles, biogenic emissions and organic substances generated by atmospheric processes. The fluorescence results indicate that much of the unidentified organic carbon present in fogwater can be represented by humic-like and biologically-derived substances similar to those present in other aquatic systems, though it should be noted that fluorescent signatures representative of DOM produced by atmospheric processing of organic aerosols may be contributing to or masked by humic-like fluorophores.     

Have international remittance inflows degraded environmental quality? A carbon emission mitigation analysis for Ghana

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Despite the considerable contributions of remittances to households and economic advancements, their environmental implications have received little...     

Vehicle emission implications of drivers’ smart advisory system for traffic operations in work zones

Wireless communication systems have been broadly applied in various complicated traffic operations to improve mobility and safety on roads, which may raise a concern about the implication of the new technology on vehicle emissions. This paper explores how the wireless communication systems improve drivers’ driving behaviors and its contributions to the emission reduction, in terms of Operating Mode (OpMode) IDs distribution used in emission estimation. A simulated work zone with completed traffic operation was selected as a test bed. Sixty subjects were recruited for the tests, whose demographic distribution was based on the Census data in Houston, Texas. A scene of a pedestrian’s crossing in the work zone was designed for the driving test. Meanwhile, a wireless communication system called Drivers Smart Advisory System (DSAS) was proposed and introduced in the driving simulation, which provided drivers with warning messages in the work zone. Two scenarios were designed for a leading vehicle as well as for a following vehicle driving through the work zone, which included a base test without any wireless communication systems, and a driving test with the trigger of the DSAS. Subjects’ driving behaviors in the simulation were recorded to evaluate safety and estimate the vehicle emission using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released emission model MOVES. The correlation between drivers’ driving behavior and the distribution of the OpMode ID during each scenario was investigated. Results show that the DSAS was able to induce drivers to accelerate smoothly, keep longer headway distance and stop earlier for a hazardous situation in the work zone, which driving behaviors result in statistically significant reduction in vehicle emissions for almost all studied air pollutants (p-values range from 4.10E-51 to 2.18E-03). The emission reduction was achieved by the switching the distribution of the OpMode IDs from higher emission zones to lower emission zones.

Implications: Transportation section is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Many studies demonstrate that the wireless communication system dedicated for safety and mobility issues may contribute to the induction in vehicle emissions through changing driving behaviors. An insight into the correlation between the driving behaviors and the distribution of Operating Mode (OpMode) IDs is essential to enhance the emission reduction. The result of this study shows that with a Drivers Smart Advisory System (DSAS) drivers accelerated smoothly and stopped earlier for a hazardous situation, which induce the switch of the OpMode IDs from high emission zones to lower emission zones.     

Investigation of metal ions binding of humic substances using fluorescence emission and synchronous‐scan spectroscopy

Abstract

The binding site interactions of IHSS humic substances, Suwannee River Humic Acid, Suwannee River Fulvic Acid, Nordic Fulvic Acid, and Aldrich Humic Acid with various metals ions and a herbicide, methyl viologen were investigated using fluorescence emission and synchronous‐scan spectroscopy. The metal ions used were, Fe(III), Cr(III), Cr(VI), Pb(II), Cu(II) and Ni(II). Stern‐Volmer constants, K_SV for these quenchers were determined at pH 4 and 8 using an ionic strength of 0.1M. For all four humic substances, and at both pH studied, Fe(III) was found to be the most efficient quencher. Quenching efficiency was found to be 3–10 times higher at pH 8. The bimolecular quenching rate constants were found to exceed the maximum considered for diffusion controlled interactions, and indicate that the fluorophore and quencher are in close physical association. Synchronous‐scan spectra were found to change with pH and provided useful information on binding site interactions between humic substances and these quenchers.     

Chloroform – concentration gradients in soil air and atmospheric air,and emission fluxes from soil

Since we demonstrated the natural formation of chloroform in soil, the question arose to which extent this contributes to the chloroform present in the atmosphere. Concentration gradients in soil air and atmospheric air of different forests were measured. Chloroform concentration gradients indicating emission occur in forest soils and the atmosphere under the canopy, whereas this was not observed for other chlorinated solvents. Above the canopy all concentration gradients observed for chloroform and 1,1,1-trichloroethane indicate deposition. The emission flux was measured using enclosures and calculated from the observed concentration gradients in soil air and atmospheric air. Wood-degrading areas and soils with a humic layer were found to emit up to 1000 ng chloroform m⁻² h⁻¹ and seem to be larger chloroform sources than the other areas of study. Rather unexpectedly, some points of one sampling site appeared to emit 1,1,1-trichloroethane, tetrachloromethane and tetrachloroethene. A reasonable agreement was found between the fluxes using enclosures and those derived from the concentration gradients in soil air and atmospheric air.     

Direct emission factor for N2O from rice–winter wheat rotation systems in southeast China

A field experiment was conducted in a rice–winter wheat rotation agroecosystem to quantify the direct emission of N₂O for synthetic N fertilizer and crop residue application in the 2002–2003 annual cycle. There was an increase in N₂O emission accompanying synthetic N fertilizer application. Fertilizer-induced emission factor for N₂O (FIE) averaged 1.08% for the rice season, 1.49% for the winter wheat season and 1.26% for the whole annual rotation cycle. The annual background emission of N₂O totaled 4.81 kg N₂O–N ha⁻¹, consisting of 1.24 kg N₂O–N ha⁻¹ for rice, 3.11 kg N₂O–N ha⁻¹ for wheat seasons. When crop residue and synthetic N fertilizer were both applied in the fields, crop residue-induced emission factor for N₂O (RIE) was estimated as well. When crop residue was retained at the rate of 2.25 and 4.50 t ha⁻¹ for each season, the RIE averaged 0.64% and 0.27% for the whole annual rotation cycle, respectively. Based on available multi-year data of N₂O emissions over the whole rice–wheat rotation cycle at 3 sites in southeast China, the FIE averaged 1.02% for the rice season, 1.65% for the wheat season. On the whole annual cycle, the FIE for N₂O ranged from 1.05% to 1.45%, with an average of 1.25%. Annual background emission of N₂O averaged 4.25 kg ha⁻¹, ranging from 3.62 to 4.87 kg ha⁻¹. It is estimated that annual N₂O emission in paddy rice-based agroecosystem amounts to 169 Gg N₂O–N in China, accounting for 26–60% of the reported estimates of total emission from croplands in China.     

The driving factors and future changes of CO2 emission in China’s nonferrous metal industry

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - As an energy-intensive industry in China, it is critical to promote energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in the nonferrous metal industry...     

Isoprene and monoterpene emission from the coniferous species Abies Borisii-regis—implications for regional air chemistry in Greece

The emission of isoprene has been studied from a forest of Abies Borisii-regis, a Mediterranean fir species previously thought to emit only monoterpenes. Emission studies from two independent enclosure experiments indicated a standardised isoprene emission rate of (18.4±3.8) μg g_dry-weight⁻¹ h⁻¹, similar in magnitude to species such as eucalyptus and oak which are considered to be strong isoprene emitters. Isoprene emission depended strongly on both leaf temperature (2°C–34°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) below 250 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹, becoming saturated with respect to PAR above this value. The annual isoprene emission rate was estimated to be (132±29) kT yr⁻¹ for those trees growing within Greece, comparable to current estimates of the total isoprene budget of Greece as a whole, and contributing significantly to regional ozone and carbon monoxide budgets. Monoterpene emission exhibited exponential temperature dependence, with 1,8-cineole, α-pinene, β-pinene and limonene forming the primary emissions. A standardised total monoterpene emission rate of (2.7±1.1) μg g_dry-weight⁻¹ h⁻¹ was calculated, corresponding to an annual monoterpene emission rate of (24±12) kT yr⁻¹. Research was conducted as part of the AEROBIC’97 (AEROsol formation from BIogenic organic Carbon) series of field campaigns.     

Analysis of China’s carbon emission driving factors based on the perspective of eight major economic regions

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Low-carbon transition has gradually become the focus of research on environmental issues. This paper takes China’s eight major economic regions...     

Development of a country-specific CO2 emission factor for domestic anthracite in Korea, 2007�C2009

Introduction

Korea has been making efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including a voluntary commitment to the target of a 30% reduction, based on business-as-usual of the total GHG emission volume, by 2020; 2006 IPCC Guidelines provided default values, applying country-specific emission factors was recommended when estimating national greenhouse gas emissions.

Results and discussion

This study focused on anthracite produced in Korea in order to provide basic data for developing country-specific emission factor. This study has estimated CO₂ emission factors to use worksheet of which five steps consisted according to the fuel analysis method.

Conclusion

As a result, the average of net colorific value for 3 years (2007??2009) was 4,519 kcal/kg, and the CO₂ emission factor was calculated to be 111,446 kg/TJ, which is about 11.8% lower than the 2006 IPCC guidelines default value, and about 7.9% higher than the US EPA emission factor.     

Fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor and regional integration analysis to characterize organic matter humification

The present several humification indexes cannot provide the whole fluorescence information on organic matter composition and the evaluation results from them are inconsistent sometimes. In this study, fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor analysis and fluorescence regional integration analysis were utilized to investigate organic matter humification, and the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model was applied to form a suitable index for overcoming the difficulties in multi-index evaluation. The result showed that the ratio between the volume of humic- and fulvic-like fluorescence region and the volume of protein-like fluorescence region not only revealed the heterogeneity of organic matter, but also provided more accurate information on organic matter humification. In addition, the results showed that the PPC model could be used to characterize integrally the humification, and the projected characteristic value calculated from the PPC model could be used as the integrated humification evaluation index.     

Bioindication of volatile elements emission by the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (North Patagonia) volcanic event in 2011

The emission of volatile pollutants from the volcanic eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle complex (North Patagonia Andean Range) that started in June 4th, 2011, was investigated by bioindication means with the epyphytic fruticose lichen Usnea sp. The elemental composition of pooled samples made up with 10 lichen thalli were analysed by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis. Eleven sampling sites were selected within the impacted region at different distance from the volcanic source. Five sites were selected as they were already sampled in a previous study prior to the eruption. Two other new sampling sites were selected from outside the impacted zone to provide non-impacted baseline sites.The elements associated with the lichen incorporation of particulate matter (PM) of geological origin were identified by linear correlation with a geochemical tracer (Sm concentrations). The elements associated with PM uptake were Ce, Eu, Fe, Hf, La, Lu, Na, Nd, Sb, Sc, Se, Ta, Tb, Th, U, and Yb. Arsenic and Cs concentrations showed contributions exceeding the PM fraction in sites near the volcanic centre, also higher than the baseline concentrations, which could be associated with permanent emissions from the geothermal system of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle complex. The lichen concentrations of Ba, Ca, Co, Hg, K, Rb, Sr, and Zn were not associated with the PM, not showing higher concentrations in the sites nearby the volcanic source or respect to the baseline values either. Therefore, there is no indication of the emission of volatile forms of these elements in the lichen records. The lichen records only identified Br volatile emissions associated with the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle complex eruption in 2011.     

Lidar-assisted measurement of PM10 emissions from agricultural tilling in California's San Joaquin Valley – Part II: emission factors

Emission factors for agricultural operations are needed in order to develop reliable PM₁₀ emissions inventories and air quality models for air basins with significant agricultural land use. A framework was developed to analyze the PM₁₀ vertical profiles collected downwind of tilling operations in the San Joaquin Valley. The methods calculate emission factors on the basis of profile shape and assign quality ratings to each land preparation test. Uncertainties in the calculated emission factors and plume heights were used as one criterion for evaluating the relative quality of the reported emission factor. Other quality ratings were based on the magnitude of the difference in measured up- and downwind concentrations, wind direction, whether the tests were conducted near the edges of the field, and how well the proposed model fit the profile data. The emission factors from different operations were compared taking the quality of the emission factor into account. Plume heights and emission factors for 24 valid test profiles ranged from 2 to 20 m (mean=9.8; SD=3.6; median=9.8) and zero to 800 mg m⁻² (mean=152; SD=240; median=43), respectively. Key environmental properties governing PM₁₀ emission from these operations include relative humidity, soil moisture and vertical temperature gradient. Surprisingly, no discernable relationships were found between implement type or wind speed and the measured emission factors.     

How best management practices affect emissions in gas turbine power plants—An important factor to consider when strengthening emission standards

The Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau (EPB) is considering strengthening the Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Stationary Gas Turbines, originally published in 2011 (DB11/847–2011), with a focus on reducing nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A feasibility study was conducted to evaluate the current operation of 12 existing combined-cycle gas turbine power plants and the design of two new plants in Beijing and their emission reduction potential, in comparison with a state-of-the-art power plant in California. The study found that best management practices (BMPs) could potentially improve the emission level of the power plants, and should be implemented to minimize emissions under current design characteristics. These BMPs include (1) more frequent tuning of turbine combustors; (2) onsite testing of natural gas characteristics in comparison to turbine manufacturer’s specifics and tuning of turbine to natural gas quality; (3) onsite testing of aqueous ammonia to ensure adequate ammonia concentration in the mixed solution, and the purity of the solution; (4) more careful inspection of the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), and the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) during operation and maintenance; (5) annual testing of the catalyst coupon on the SCR to ensure catalyst effectiveness; and (6) annual ammonia injection grid (AIG) tuning. The study found that without major modification to the plants, improving the management of the Beijing gas turbine power plants may potentially reduce the current hourly average NOx emission level of 5–10 parts per million (ppm; ranges reflects plant variation) by up to 20%. The exact improvement associated with each BMP for each facility requires more detailed analysis, and requires engagement of turbine, HRSG, and SCR manufacturers. This potential improvement is an important factor to consider when strengthening the emission standard. However, note that with the continuous needs of improving air quality within the area, more expensive control measures, such as retrofitting the turbines or the HRSGs, may be considered.

Implications: This study analyzed the potential emission reductions associated with implementing the best management practices (BMPs) on the combined cycle and cogeneration power plants in Beijing. It determined that implementing the BMPs could potentially achieve up to 580 metric tonnes, or 0.6%, reductions of all NOx emissions in Beijing. Many other cities in China and Asia battling air quality issues may find the information useful in order to evaluate the emission reduction potential of their own gas turbine power plants.